Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXXV

[Chytilmania]

The thing will be with next season in mind is that the organization is going to bank on the kids becoming top 6 options. They're going to have to. You can keep Copp to replace Strome.

Right now, you don't need Kakko or Lafreniere in the top 6 since you have veteran options and depth. With a cap crunch, Lafreniere and Kakko are going back into the top 6 in October. Vatrano is going to cost too much. Strome won't be back. It's either Kreider-Zibanejad-Kakko/Laf or Panarin-Copp (or other viable 2C)-Kakko/Laf.

Drury needs to have Lafreniere with Kreider this summer. Go spend a few weeks home and come back and train. One of the biggest hurdles for him seems to be the physical aspects of things. Having him in Prentiss will only help. Didn't Miller train with Kreider last summer? Look at the leap we're seeing there.

Barron spent the summer with Kreider. Miller stayed in Minnesota.

 

[mas0764]

That defense is not playoff material. Maybe it will be in a few years, but putting in 3 inexperienced players is a recipe for disaster. I don't see how anyone can pencil in those 2nd or 3rd units and think that they'll be successful.

I don't see Fox/Miller/Lindgren/Trouba as all that terribly different from Fox/Miller/Lindgren/Schneider.

 

[mas0764]

bruh

If you think this deal has any basis in reality, there's a massive disconnect

Well, like I said, it's probably a no from Detroit's end.

I'm just spitballing solutions to our problems and this would be one.

Kreider and/or Trouba will be traded when we're up against the cap and have literally no other option. We're not trading our Vet defenseman from our top pair for a futures Center... especially when his stock has fallen.

Whose stock has fallen?

And we ARE up against the Cap. We are going to lose Vatrano and either Strome or Copp this offseason, and we aren't going to be able to afford a long term deal for Kakko. We will have to be crossing our fingers that we can bring him back on a bridge.

Not having space is already hurting us. This isn't a "later," problem, it's a now problem. The question is what would you rather have now?

You're 2-3 years early. I know what Edge said. Things change. Laffy and Kakko will not cost big cap space. Kreider and Trouba are integral pieces for our success.

I don't think we lose much with the improvements we will get from Miller and Schneider, and also Jones and Robertson, by taking Trouba out.

From this year to next year we get better at 3rd defender, 5th defender and 6th defender. Schneider as the 4th defender is a measurable downgrade, but it's also a player that's getting better every day.

And you improve probably 2 other forward spots, are able to lock up kids to long term deals, and get an absolutely necessary hard-to-fill future hole filled.

It's worth the trade off. If it was possible.

 

[mas0764]

I’m not reading that because I’ve seen it all before, but you saying there’s going to be a cap squeeze is correct. The difference is the Rangers can’t squeeze the guys with trade protection, so the young players will be the ones taking less or getting dealt.

But that is not true. Teams do squeeze guys with trade protection sometimes.

It's counter productive to trade away your young assets because you are cap squeezed. You have to find a way to move the older, more expensive veterans. It doesn't have to be Trouba, but I was using him in this hypo presuming he might have some value around the league in return.

 

[mas0764]

It's tight, but this works for the start of next season:

Signings:
Copp - 6 years @ $4.75m
Vatrano - 4 years @ $2.75m
Kaako - 2 years @ $2.4m
Kravtsov - 1 year @ $1.25m

But each of these estimates is probably too low. And you still end up with only half a mil in space.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

I don't see Fox/Miller/Lindgren/Trouba as all that terribly different from Fox/Miller/Lindgren/Schneider.

Lindgren was not included in the post I quoted. Despite not even being a big fan of Lindgren, replacing him and Trouba, two steady veterans, with 2 rookies, is a complete wildcard.

It's just my opinion, but this is a recipe for a giant step back next year. I'm not really sure you're considering just how hard it is to play NHL defense for an entire year. Trouba is extremely experienced and eats a shit ton of hard minutes. Just assuming Schneider can absorb that in and of itself is a giant stretch in his sophomore year. Add on to the fact that you're pairing him with Jones, basically a rookie, since you're jettisoning Lindgren, and it's even more likely he has serious struggles.

Getting to the third pair, Robertson has never played an NHL game, so just penciling him in and assuming he does fine is a stretch. Nils was meh this year, but I do think getting him or Jones in the lineup next year makes sense.

 

[mas0764]

Lindgren was not included in the post I quoted.

Ah... well, I will point out that I said "eventually, if not right away, the defense looks like this..."

Lindgren probably stays in that top 4 for the immediate time being if Trouba was to be traded. So that is not an immediate swap-out.

The idea is that Miller-Fox and Jones-Schneider are the eventual long term top 4 pairings.

It's just my opinion, but this is a recipe for a giant step back next year. I'm not really sure you're considering just how hard it is to play NHL defense for an entire year. Trouba is extremely experienced and eats a shit ton of hard minutes. Just assuming Schneider can absorb that in and of itself is a giant stretch in his sophomore year. Add on to the fact that you're pairing him with Jones, basically a rookie, since you're jettisoning Lindgren, and it's even more likely he has serious struggles.

My conceptualization would, again, be that the eventual pairing long term is Miller-Fox and Jones-Schneider, but for next year, if I traded Trouba and a first for Detroit's first and took Lambert, it would probably be Miller-Fox and then Lindgren-Schneider.

The third pair would be highly similar to this year and we'd be rolling with Nemeth or another vet, and then a platoon of kids in Jones, Robertson and Nils rolling in and out. At the deadline you could add another vet to stabilize if needed.

This is a step back on D, but it's not a "giant," step back. The third pair with Nemeth or a vet and a combination of Jones, Robertson and Nils is probably RELATIVELY similar to our D this year with Nemeth/vet and Schneider.

It's the second pair that suffers. Lindgren-Schneider is probably worse than Miller-Trouba. But Miller-Fox is probably better than Lindgren-Fox right now, as Miller continues to ascend and frankly, so does Fox who is only 24 years old. And Lindgren probably grades out better against easier matchups as well.

It's a step back on D, but the trade off you are getting is a potential future 1C.

That's massive.

Massive.

And for the people who are on-board to win now - the cap savings from moving Trouba allow you to re-sign Vatrano, Motte, and Blais and you can ice a dominant fourth line. So defensive downgrade, but massive upgrade to your forward corps, both now and later.

And you still have another spare defender (either Lindgren, Nils, Jones, or Robertson) as trade bait.

Getting to the third pair, Robertson has never played an NHL game, so just penciling him in and assuming he does fine is a stretch. Nils was meh this year, but I do think getting him or Jones in the lineup next year makes sense.

It's not really a stretch to say your highly touted kids have to make NHL debuts at some point. These guys are getting into the line up next year one way or the other. The idea is that they are going to be good enough to actually be worth putting into your lineup.

 

[DialUp]

It is still very confusing to me that we have been constantly and painfully up against the cap since 2007 (and lately, with NO PLAYOFFS) yet the teams better than us during that time and now are just absolutely stacked top to bottom. I know TBL and VGK did LTIR tricks.
But still.

 

[mas0764]

It is still very confusing to me that we have been constantly and painfully up against the cap since 2007 (and lately, with NO PLAYOFFS) yet the teams better than us during that time and now are just absolutely stacked top to bottom. I know TBL and VGK did LTIR tricks.
But still.

A lot of teams have some real value contracts. We don't have many of those.

That's why you see bitching for every Fox, Shesterkin and Zibanejad deal. Yeah, they are all fine contracts.

Fine.

Just fine.

But none of them are real steals.

That's why it would be huge for us to clear enough space to actually give Kakko and Lafreniere long term deals in the coming year or two.

Because if you lock those kids into 6-8 year deals now at flat-cap prices, when the cap explodes and there is room, those contracts will look great. And that's how you turn into Colorado. With long term stars locked up for discount rates.

Even if it's not Kakko or Lafreniere we need to be on the lookout for getting some core secondary pieces locked up to long terms at discount prices. Think betting on Chytil long term at value AAV.

 

[Fitzy]

It is still very confusing to me that we have been constantly and painfully up against the cap since 2007 (and lately, with NO PLAYOFFS) yet the teams better than us during that time and now are just absolutely stacked top to bottom. I know TBL and VGK did LTIR tricks.
But still.

Our current roster is pretty close to stacked. The only weakness on paper right now is inexperience.

But yes, since 2005 the team has had bad contracts, substantial buyout cap hits, you name it.

The best teams let guys go at the right time. We've struggled with that. We kept Girardi and Staal too long, made a big error with Shattenkirk, etc. We kept Rozsival too long, too.

There was an instinct to try to deal with NYR's team weaknesses by filling the roster with UFAs for a long time. Richards, Gaborik, Gomez, Drury, Redden, Shatty. Some of those worked better than others. We got rid of Richards, Gomez, and Gaborik at the right times.

What this team needs is another Vinny Prospal/Anton Stralman/ Benoit Pouliot type acquisition. A guy down on his luck willing to sign for cheap who contributes on the level of a guy making 3-4 million.

 

[Fitzy]

A lot of teams have some real value contracts. We don't have many of those.

That's why you see bitching for every Fox, Shesterkin and Zibanejad deal. Yeah, they are all fine contracts.

Fine.

Just fine.

But none of them are real steals.

That's why it would be huge for us to clear enough space to actually give Kakko and Lafreniere long term deals in the coming year or two.

Because if you lock those kids into 6-8 year deals now at flat-cap prices, when the cap explodes and there is room, those contracts will look great. And that's how you turn into Colorado. With long term stars locked up for discount rates.

Even if it's not Kakko or Lafreniere we need to be on the lookout for getting some core secondary pieces locked up to long terms at discount prices. Think betting on Chytil long term at value AAV.

That Shesty contract is a steal.

 

[mas0764]

That Shesty contract is a steal.

The issue with that one is people wanted it to be longer.

I foresee some real pain trying to decide whether to give him the Henrik contract at age 30, which we all ended up hating.

 

[mas0764]

Our current roster is pretty close to stacked. The only weakness on paper right now is inexperience.

And young center depth.

 

[duhmetreE]

It's tight, but this works for the start of next season:

Signings:
Copp - 6 years @ $4.75m
Vatrano - 4 years @ $2.75m
Kaako - 2 years @ $2.4m
Kravtsov - 1 year @ $1.25m
Blais - 2 years @ $1.5m
Back-up goalie for $1m

Trades:
Georgiev for picks
Nemeth for pick

Kreider-Zibanejad-Vatrano/Lafreniere
Panarin-Copp-Kaako
Lafreniere/Vatrano-Chytil-Kravtsov
Hunt-Goodrow-Blais
Reaves

Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Trouba
Jones-Schneider

Shesty
$1m backup

$0.5m cap space


If the Rangers trade Reaves and keep Brodzinski around, they actually have about $1.45m in cap space

Perhaps some of the guys I show as re-signed get a bit more, but I doubt it. It's even possible someone like Blais comes back below his previous contract based on his injury to get some term.

I think they may be hesitant to sign Vatrano if Kravtsov really is getting a legit shot here. Doubt Kravtsov gets a raise. He'll get a 1 year prove it. With Blais and the plethora of kids on the verge, there's limited space. Cuylle and Othmann have a legit chance of making the team. Trivigno now here as well.

I really do not like going into next season with Lindgren Fox. IMO that's top priority. I do not think Lindgren-Fox is a viable half of the top4 and will be a major weak point in the playoffs. Maybe they prove me wrong but I doubt it

 

[mas0764]

I think they may be hesitant to sign Vatrano if Kravtsov really is getting a legit shot here. Doubt Kravtsov gets a raise. He'll get a 1 year prove it. With Blais and the plethora of kids on the verge, there's limited space. Cuylle and Othmann have a legit chance of making the team. Trivigno now here as well.

I really do not like going into next season with Lindgren Fox. IMO that's top priority. I do not think Lindgren-Fox is a viable half of the top4 and will be a major weak point in the playoffs. Maybe they prove me wrong but I doubt it

Miller very well could be a top pair defender next year.

 

[DialUp]

Maybe it's about having 3-4 studs and a cast of replaceable characters that git gud through osmosis? Pitt seemed to do it, Chicago seemed to do it (Brendan fcking Saad is not a world beater), took Wash about 15 tries.

Are our tops guys those studs now? They sure weren't the past 2 years. Maybe this year and next are different?

 

[duhmetreE]

Miller very well could be a top pair defender next year.

He's a top pair defender this year.

We need another strong pair. Lindgren gets dropped to 3rd pair with Schneider or moved. We need another big boy. Size, as the past few weeks and decades of playoffs have shown... is really important in the back end.

Whether it's someone like Chychrun, which we've been linked to for a while now, or a shrewd move like....

 

[Fitzy]

Maybe it's about having 3-4 studs and a cast of replaceable characters that git gud through osmosis? Pitt seemed to do it, Chicago seemed to do it (Brendan fcking Saad is not a world beater), took Wash about 15 tries.

Are our tops guys those studs now? They sure weren't the past 2 years. Maybe this year and next are different?

The replaceable characters still need to be good, is the thing.

Panarin Fox Shesty Trouba Kreider is a decent core. It’s not the best in the league but it’s far from the worst. Key for “window 1” is going to be the supporting cast. If Kakko Laf and Chytil find another gear in the playoffs, we are as good as any roster not named Florida or Colorado.

 

[duhmetreE]

Barron spent the summer with Kreider. Miller stayed in Minnesota.

I'd love to see the kids stay with Kreids this summer. Fox, KAM, Laffy, Kakko, Zibs and Chytil.

This team needs to not get fat in the offseason

 

[DialUp]

The replaceable characters still need to be good, is the thing.

Right, what I was saying is are those players good *because* they are around and playing with elites? Obviously not every elite player(s) have that talent to elevate others. McDavid and Leon come to mind. But Crosby, P-Kane seemed to be able to do it.

I think our guys like Mika and Bread are just below that tier. So yeah, we need our kids to step up for us to be able to comfortably compete with FLA, COL, and CAR in the playoffs going forward.

 

[JohnC]

Right, what I was saying is are those players good *because* they are around and playing with elites? Obviously not every elite player(s) have that talent to elevate others. McDavid and Leon come to mind. But Crosby, P-Kane seemed to be able to do it.

I think our guys like Mika and Bread are just below that tier. So yeah, we need our kids to step up for us to be able to comfortably compete with FLA, COL, and CAR in the playoffs going forward.

I’d argue we’re seeing that happen in real time with Zib/Vatrano and Panarin/Strome/every RW we’ve given Panarin since he got here.

 

[RangerBoy]

Looking at how well Seth Jarvis is playing on a stacked Carolina forward group. Othmann is having a great season for Flint. If Othmann comes to camp and basically forces the Rangers to keep him for at least the start of The NHL season before the 10 NHL games played mark for Othmann.

Kreider-Zibanejad-Kakko
Panarin-Copp-Kravtsov
Lafreniere-Chytil-Othmann
Blais-Goodrow-Reaves
Add 13th forward. Brodzinski or Hunt at $762,500?

Kreider, Zibanejad, Copp & Goodrow are the main PK forwards.

Lindgren-Fox
KAM-Trouba
Jones-Schneider
7th D-Cheap

Shesterkin
Cheap back-up

 

[PuckLuck3043]

It is still very confusing to me that we have been constantly and painfully up against the cap since 2007 (and lately, with NO PLAYOFFS) yet the teams better than us during that time and now are just absolutely stacked top to bottom. I know TBL and VGK did LTIR tricks.
But still.

That is untrue. First of all we were a playoff team for most of the years from 2007-2017 and a legit contender from 2012-2015. Most teams have cap issues if they aren't a bottom feeder, particularly the better teams. TBL and VGK had to do salary cap gymnastics to make it work. We are top 5 in the league in points and I don't see any team stacked top to bottom without cap concerns. This year we actually had quite a bit of cap space, especially near the TDL. Next year with the new contracts to Fox and Mika things are going to get tighter and some decisions have to be made but we can still ice a very nice roster and sign most of the guys we want to sign. I don't think the cap situation is dire at all.

 

[DialUp]

I’d argue we’re seeing that happen in real time with Zib/Vatrano and Panarin/Strome/every RW we’ve given Panarin since he got here.

My opinion, just Copp has truly worked out there so far this year.

 

[DialUp]

That is untrue. First of all we were a playoff team for most of the years from 2007-2017 and a legit contender from 2012-2015. Most teams have cap issues if they aren't a bottom feeder, particularly the better teams. TBL and VGK had to do salary cap gymnastics to make it work. We are top 5 in the league in points and I don't see any team stacked top to bottom without cap concerns. This year we actually had quite a bit of cap space, especially near the TDL. Next year with the new contracts to Fox and Mika things are going to get tighter and some decisions have to be made but we can still ice a very nice roster and sign most of the guys we want to sign. I don't think the cap situation is dire at all.

*edit* "stacked" has a fluid definition. Sometimes a team not known as stacked 'in the moment' is looked back on in hindsight as being stacked.

I didn't say the other teams don't have cap issues or concerns, I am saying that stacked teams *exist* and we aren't one of them, and truthfully never WERE one of them, regardless of our performance during prime Hank years. We are going to be in trouble very soon cap wise. What would make *us* stacked? Laff, Kakko, and Chytil becoming very good players. Miller continuing his ascent. Schneider building on his promising rookie year. It could very well be our future.

Even in our best years, we weren't exactly offensively dangerous. It wasn't our game. (I could be wrong here, we might have had a great offensive year or two). We thrived off good defense and Hank. The deep runs were one maybe two forwards away from winning our share of chips. But we were not complete. Cup winning teams really do have it all. Even if it's just once. AND they had to have luck thrown on top of it. Every one of us wants that with this group, no?

In short, my comment is pointing to teams like recent era TBL, this years CAR, FLA, and COL, maybe TOR. Sure they might have cap issues but those are the kinds of teams you want if you are going to have cap problems. I look at a team like CGY and see a non-stacked team that is very good and a real contender, perhaps St. Louis too. I would put us in that category.

We *are* going to have cap issues, let's hope we look like an elite team when we do.