Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXVIII

[Alluckks]

@Mydogsbuttisyourmomsface: Caps closing in on deal with Edmonton for McDavid and 50% of the Edmonton oil supply for a used tampax

Hf poster: yo anyone ever heard of this guy? is he reliable?

They’re like crack heads

Rangers closing in on deal to pay off Marc Staal's house in exchange for him waiving his NTC

 

[Mikos87]

When people talk about analytics I go back to the Mets of the early 80s. Ron Gardenheire was their shortstop. Had a decent glove. Couldn’t hit a lick but the Mets won 2/3 of the games he played. Analytics are nice but you also need to go by the eye test and your gut and what is working.

Speaking of the Mets. Back in late 2014 I was getting a tour of Citi field and heard a story that their manager said at the time (he was Beane's right hand man in Oakland). The Manager said, our pitching is good enough to win the penant, but I need a reliable 3 and 4 hitter. If I have that, then I feel good about winning 4 out of 7 and getting a penant.

Wright was always dinged up, but that year he was healthy. The Mets traded for Cespedes and they made the world series. The Manager said that to the team months before the season started.

There is something to analytics and baseball. I work with analytics for a living, and in by no shape or form would I consider myself a corsi guy. Not by any stretch of the imagination, but as someone who works with analytics for a living I think hockey's got a long way to go before you get to points of certainty.

 

[duhmetreE]

Analytics for baseball is more accurate/valuable than hockey. It's more of an isolating sport.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Yeah, I’m sure all the good, qualified candidates are just ****ting themselves at the opportunity to Gm the Coyotes.

There are plenty of people who would love any GM job in the NHL. Not everyone is Steve Yzerman who has the luxury of picking their destination.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Speaking of the Mets. Back in late 2014 I was getting a tour of Citi field and heard a story that their manager said at the time (he was Beane's right hand man in Oakland). The Manager said, our pitching is good enough to win the penant, but I need a reliable 3 and 4 hitter. If I have that, then I feel good about winning 4 out of 7 and getting a penant.

Wright was always dinged up, but that year he was healthy. The Mets traded for Cespedes and they made the world series. The Manager said that to the team months before the season started.

There is something to analytics and baseball. I work with analytics for a living, and in by no shape or form would I consider myself a corsi guy. Not by any stretch of the imagination, but as someone who works with analytics for a living I think hockey's got a long way to go before you get to points of certainty.

It’s just the nature of hockey as you were alluding to in your prior essay. It’s chaos and nonsensical. Baseball is turn based and every single event can be analyzed.

I question whether hockey analytics will ever be as reliable as baseball ones.

 

[Avery16]

It’s a damn shame this club couldn’t get Mike more wins.

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

Why is this coach rolling 3 lines? Didn't we hire him because he would roll 4 lines? Has been very average in terms of developing young players so far.

 

[aufheben]

Arizona has been wrecked with injuries, but they're still hovering around .500% and are only 3 points out of the playoffs (w/ games in hand.)

 

[Ola]

There's two issues with Chayka imo.

First of, credit where it is due, he's a very bright and impressive guy. The way he approaches solving a problem, is very similar to the way many in my business do, that's empirically, and with data.

The first issue is that the data he's using. Hockey, unlike baseball is a fluid sport. There are no stoppages between plays where you can measure and outcome from start to stop.

The second issue is, hockey unlike basketball, another fluid sport, does not have it's situational passing/shooting/scoring mechanism result in a goal more than 5-6 times a game, as opposed to 160 times a game in basketball.

Both of these phenomena present an issue when it comes to data integrity, and order of magnitude. With baseball for example, you have a much higher level of data integrity, lefty v righty, pitch type. Start. stop. Basketball: 3-pt off of screens/drive and dish etc.

So those situational measurements are far more quantifiable. With Corsi for example, it's the same metric of a soft 60 wide attempt on net, as it is a slot shot. Hockey has gotten much better about situational metrics, and group metrics in particular, but the reality of it is that these stats and metrics require a long tail view... which many teams do pay for... but it's a recent trend. Also, different players will perform differently in the same metrics on different systems so there's no normalization curve.

So what's the point of this: Chayka and co might be too early for what they really need. Which are a universal set of metrics that have a high differential value, and can be replicated over and over again.

Does the game of hockey have some of these? Yes. But sparse, and circumstantial at best.

Here's one:

3 RH shots on the PP. LH half walk, RH Point man. Net front is a preferred RH shot. Sniper from the off-wing key. LH playmaker below the circle. PP is a 1-3-1. Teams that run this consistently-> have a 18-26% conversion on the PP. It's very hard to stop. Additionally, the teams that have mastered this, have either won the cup, or been to the conference finals the last few years. They are contenders.

Why is this set up to replicable: because there is less fluidity on the PP, there is a clear and distinct differential value based on the situational setup and outcome.

Here's another: players are tracked on a controlled zone entry, but not just any kind. There are two players who are UFA this year who are going to get wtf contracts according to HFNYR standards. They are checkers. But checkers who are very good and grabbing the puck in the d-zone, and skating into the offensive zone, often times solo, and allowing their team to get a fresh line change while establishing a forecheck.

One plays on a very good team, one on a crappy team, but he can score. HFNYR value for one of those guys would be your typical $1.5M 4th liner, and the other as a stretch for $3.5M. The "4th liner" is going to get 4 years at $2.5M minimum. The $3.5M player is going to get 4 years at a minimum of $4M, maybe higher.

Why is this set up to replicable: because there is a clear and distinct differential value based on the situational setup and outcome, and it can be stack ranked against their peers.

Just some food for thought.

Bloggers: Feel free to run with this. Your content needs some refreshing.

Great post!

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Rangers closing in on deal to pay off Marc Staal's house in exchange for him waiving his NTC

- Put in a high offer on Marc Staal's house to have him waive his NMC
- Give Kravtsov an extra signing bonus to pay for him buying out his own KHL contract

The shit I've read on HFNYR that would result in us losing draft picks

 

[Alluckks]

- Put in a high offer on Marc Staal's house to have him waive his NMC
- Give Kravtsov an extra signing bonus to pay for him buying out his own KHL contract

The **** I've read on HFNYR that would result in us losing draft picks

I get some people just not being familiar with the rules or thinking it out when it comes to "why can't the team pay for the hockey contract of their player in another league" but the house thing for Staal was so next level and out of left field that I'll never forget it

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I get some people just not being familiar with the rules or thinking it out when it comes to "why can't the team pay for the hockey contract of their player in another league" but the house thing for Staal was so next level and out of left field that I'll never forget it

Yeah. The Staal-scenario was on a whole new level.

 

[BBKers]

MY PREDICTIONS
Zucc to Dallas, Sharks or Winnipeg
Hayes to Boston, Nashville or Calgary
Namestnikov to Montreal or Nashville
McQuaid to Toronto Or Brooklyn!!

Kreider stays unless someone decisively overpays
Shattenkirk stays - Maybe dealt (retained) in the offseason
Smith buyout or dealt at 50% retention somewhere for a scrub in the offseason

Returns Will vary. Some as expected. Some better. Some worst than expected.

 

[DutchShamrock]

I have a feeling Washington comes out of nowhere and snags Zucc.

Hayes to Boston.

McQuaid to Toronto.

Namestnikov to Colorado or Edmonton.

The big fish go out west and the East value shops.

 

[Ola]

Arizona has been wrecked with injuries, but they're still hovering around .500% and are only 3 points out of the playoffs (w/ games in hand.)

What I like a lot with Chayka is that he hasn't just leaned back and collected a pay-check, he has really tried to make a change and aimed higher than the establishment in lack of a better word. Think he could like be the best AGM in the world, and will probably find the right path down the road.

I just object to the blind trust -- and yes, I do think that is a fair description -- in the numbers that so obviously still are pretty darn flawed. And no matter what, in hockey you also have to show huge consideration and respect to the structure of the game -- something that completely is lost more often than not.

Ex. 1 -- Four defensemen on a team, A, B, C and D, can form two good pairs in hockey, A-B and C-D. Its however perfectly possible that A-D and B-C would form two horrible pairs. Leetch-Beuke, Lowe-Zubov did great, would Lowe-Beuke and Leetch-Zubov have worked in 94'?

On defense, its quite obvious. But especially up front I think this is lost to a great extent. You can definitely get a line with three pretty flawed guys to work perfectly and put up great numbers, and its certainly possible to take three very good individual players and create a completely horrible line if they don't fit well.

I don't think there always are sufficient respect of that fact. NHL teams are run by the 31 guys deemed to be the best at their job in the world, nobody have ever seen how bad a line could look if it wasn't intended to be a good fit. Just how much the play on the ice could sky dive.

I think this has been very obvious when the value of Kreider vs Stone vs Duchene has been discussed. They are totally different player types, and Kreider could be vastly better than Stone on some lines, and its of course vice visa on other lines. Maybe Stone is better on the average line? Its still far from 80% of the lines in the league, maybe 55%. Value/ability in hockey is the same as picking the 3 stars of a game. If you are making orange juice you need oranges, if you are making apple pie you need apples. I love apple pie and lets say I am about to cook one -- when I stand there in the shop selecting which fruits to buy for my baking, is it a relevant question to ask if apples tastes better than oranges?

It often sounds like that when metrics are involved in a discussion on who would be a better addition among two hockey players. In stead of looking more closely at -- what is it exactly a player brings in his current environment, what can he bring, and what would we need?

Ex 2. I think there is quite much unity among coaches nowadays in the NHL. Around say 05'-10' you had teams playing totally different styles, with totally different job descriptions. The following 5 years it still differed a lot. It still does, but teams are more and more leaning in the same direction.

But the job description can still differ a lot depending on if you play for like Torts or someone more modern. Just because you can do well in one system, there isn't a guarantee that you can do as well in another.

You can't like skip the entire due diligence process. Its not 'simple'. There are no super easy short-cuts where you just process a few data points and comes away with an answer.

It would be nice if we ever got to a point were you could like pitch an idea asking if it might be possible that some play in one environment won't transform to another environment without every single time getting jumped and ridiculed by a mob that would make a group of young men with a US flag and some gasoline at a basar in Kandahar look like peace activists...

 

[17futurecap]

Get Brady back in tomorrow, and sit McQuaid. His value isn’t changing if he blocks another shot with his leg.

 

[Ola]

How would this line function; Howden-Ziba-Zucc?

 

[Ola]

Can Gorts' hook someone on Kreider? He has term left. All GMs won't give up futures for someone that doesn't have term left. Kreider got term.

Get a very good prospect and a 1st for Kreider, or a solid prospect and a higher 1st.

Get a solid prospect and a later 1st for Hayes.

Trade Namestnikov for whatever you can get.

Trade Zucc for the Grabner return.

Deal McQuaid

Trade Shatty, 50% retained, could you even get an OK return? A 2nd round pick and a prospect?

Trade Brenda Smith, 50% retained, 2m per next year and 1m per the year after -- wouldn't some money caring team be interested? Then Gorts can try to start assembling a team, start the rebuild. The rebuild of the blueline is snoozing right now. Get it going. After the above sell-off -- Gorts would have all the ammo in the world to try to assemble pieces.

Nobody is willing to make any kind of trades, if Gorts had cap space and a boat-load of assets and younger roster players, up and comers -- he could easily make a bunch of trades over the coming 12 months.

 

[egelband]

https://www.foxsports.com/nhl/team-...CELLANEOUS&group=1&time=0&pos=0&team=1&page=1

Rangers have the worst penalty minutes differential by a pretty wide margin. For a team that plays a squeaky clean game, that’s pretty weird. Also considering they were (by a small margin) a positive last season. I say the refs don’t like Quinn.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

It’s a damn shame this club couldn’t get Mike more wins.

Richter's kamikaze style to netminding is probably most responsible for not obtaining more wins. And I win that regarding longevity, not skill

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Today's the day the first show drops.

Duchane to the Islanders.

 

[eco's bones]

One week out from the deadline. I'm going against the grain here. I'd rather re-sign Hayes--move Zucc and McQuaid and maybe one of Namestnikov or Buchnevich. Hayes is still kind of young and seems to be getting better from year to year. The Rangers don't have a guy ready to take over as a 2C--Howden had been in a major scoring slump before his injury--almost all of Chytil's offense has come off the wing and he needs more work defensively and he's crap on face-offs. Since going down to Hartford Andersson's game has gone way south to the point I wonder whether he's playing hurt but I don't think he's a lock to play all of next year with the Rangers. A late 1st would have to have a really really good prospect add IMO to even make it worthwhile giving up Hayes and I'm not sure that's going to happen. The Rangers will regress further next year if they don't have a decent 2nd line and Hayes is the guy who has been carrying it. It pushes the rebuild even further back IMO.

 

[Mikos87]

It’s just the nature of hockey as you were alluding to in your prior essay. It’s chaos and nonsensical. Baseball is turn based and every single event can be analyzed.

I question whether hockey analytics will ever be as reliable as baseball ones.

I think it will get there, but definitely not under the current advanced KPIs.

Some of the group metrics are getting better. The speed and puck tracking data going public will do wonders.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

One week out from the deadline. I'm going against the grain here. I'd rather re-sign Hayes--move Zucc and McQuaid and maybe one of Namestnikov or Buchnevich. Hayes is still kind of young and seems to be getting better from year to year. The Rangers don't have a guy ready to take over as a 2C--Howden had been in a major scoring slump before his injury--almost all of Chytil's offense has come off the wing and he needs more work defensively and he's crap on face-offs. Since going down to Hartford Andersson's game has gone way south to the point I wonder whether he's playing hurt but I don't think he's a lock to play all of next year with the Rangers. A late 1st would have to have a really really good prospect add IMO to even make it worthwhile giving up Hayes and I'm not sure that's going to happen. The Rangers will regress further next year if they don't have a decent 2nd line and Hayes is the guy who has been carrying it. It pushes the rebuild even further back IMO.

I am swearing off "well we can't trade player X because we don't have anyone to replace him." Maybe that should be the point for a while, especially if player X is going to get overpaid in terms of years and $$$'s come July. Especially if player X is your best trade chip to play in the next week. I totally see what you're saying, but I just think the rebuild is going to go farther back than any one of us would like any way, so might as well squeeze all the assets you can out of the present.

 

[Ola]

https://www.foxsports.com/nhl/team-...CELLANEOUS&group=1&time=0&pos=0&team=1&page=1

Rangers have the worst penalty minutes differential by a pretty wide margin. For a team that plays a squeaky clean game, that’s pretty weird. Also considering they were (by a small margin) a positive last season. I say the refs don’t like Quinn.

Or is it a new coach thing? Let him take the fall in every game making the other more established guy happy.

And can't he just snap for once? Would love to see him toss a bench to the ice. Everyone going like 'take it easy Dave one bruise and you will die' but he just goes McGregor on everyone. I do think he got it in him.