Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XVIV

[Blue Blooded]

Do you consider 3 years long term? Because I have a hard time seeing him get longer than that.

Three years is honestly borderline, the last year would potentially interfere with Kakko, Zibanejad and Fox' next contracts.

 

[kovazub94]

Hate? Why are we calling criticism hate?

He scored at a 0.5 PPG clip last year. Sustainability arguments aside, I'd hardly consider that "producing" in the context of what he is currently doing with Panarin. His next extension will likely at least command a $5.5-6M AAV, would you be satisfied with 0.5 PPG production in that scenario?

And this is where “pure” numbers argument loses its credibility. Strome clearly shedded his Oilers skin after getting comfortable in the new environment and finding his role and type of game in February 2019, about two months into his Rangers tenure. That line is drawn from the eye test but can be supported by analytics. Strome started to make plays in multiple capacities. Even if you discount the goal scoring because of “unsustainable” shooting %, Strome was good on a forecheck, backcheck, board play, puck support, creating offensive opportunities, etc. And there was to Panarin to allegedly parasite off of.

 

[kovazub94]

If the team can “artificially” create a top-6 player due to a chemistry - why not? Having a let’s say $7m production out of $5m player let’s the organization create depth by spending this $2 benefit elsewhere. It’s similar to opportunities created by a prospect on ELC or RFA level contract producing above its level.
I know some posters can’t follow it when examples rely on analogies in a specific situations, but I’m sure smart Pens fans had no complaints with Kunitz and Pascal Dupuis having chemistry with Crosby at a “discounted” cap cost.

 

[InTheShift]

Dater had a rehash of the Avs interest in Kreider but it’s behind a paywall...

Avs fans seem to like the idea of Kreider but also mention help between the pipes.

How about Kreider, Georgiev, and Lias for Newhook and 2020 1st?

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Dater had a rehash of the Avs interest in Kreider but it’s behind a paywall...

Avs fans seem to like the idea of Kreider but also mention help between the pipes.

How about Kreider, Georgiev, and Lias for Newhook and 2020 1st?

Value aside, the Avs aren't trading Newhook.

 

[Blue Blooded]

And this is where “pure” numbers argument loses its credibility. Strome clearly shedded his Oilers skin after getting comfortable in the new environment and finding his role and type of game in February 2019, about two months into his Rangers tenure. That line is drawn from the eye test but can be supported by analytics. Strome started to make plays in multiple capacities. Even if you discount the goal scoring because of “unsustainable” shooting %, Strome was good on a forecheck, backcheck, board play, puck support, creating offensive opportunities, etc. And there was to Panarin to allegedly parasite off of.

First of all, I was responding to a post that says "He produced last year without Panarin" which insinuates that his level of production last year wasn't that different from this year - which obviously isn't the case.

Re: February onwards. Even if we just talk about the final 28 games of the 2018-19 season, the most generous sample possible, Strome still only scored 1.6 5v5 P/60. For comparison he has scored 2.77 5v5 P/60 with Panarin this season. He did increase his production overall, but it was mainly due to getting a prominent role on the powerplay and shooting 40% on it.

I'm not saying he isn't playing better here than he did for the Oilers, he obviously is. I'm not saying he hasn't been great with Panarin, he obviously is. All I'm saying is that he hasn't been more productive than a middle six player away from Panarin at any point of his Ranger tenure and that it needs to be taken into account when deciding whether to extend him or trade him. As long as it doesn't hinder us from giving DeAngelo a long-term extension I'm all for signing him to a 1-2 year deal, since I'm a big believer in "if it works don't fix it".

 

[kovazub94]

First of all, I was responding to a post that says "He produced last year without Panarin" which insinuates that his level of production last year wasn't that different from this year - which obviously isn't the case.

Re: February onwards. Even if we just talk about the final 28 games of the 2018-19 season, the most generous sample possible, Strome still only scored 1.6 5v5 P/60. For comparison he has scored 2.77 5v5 P/60 with Panarin this season. He did increase his production overall, but it was mainly due to getting a prominent role on the powerplay and shooting 40% on it.

I'm not saying he isn't playing better here than he did for the Oilers, he obviously is. I'm not saying he hasn't been great with Panarin, he obviously is. All I'm saying is that he hasn't been more productive than a middle six player away from Panarin at any point of his Ranger tenure and that it needs to be taken into account when deciding whether to extend him or trade him. As long as it doesn't hinder us from giving DeAngelo a long-term extension I'm all for signing him to a 1-2 year deal, since I'm a big believer in "if it works don't fix it".

I was hoping you won’t take offense to my post, because I was trying to make a broader point in response to your post that he was a .5 ppg performer before Panarin.
To your other point now, everyone recognizes that Strome is not a ppg player, and so in discussing his next contract we are talking $5m, not $7m (and just a month ago, expecting an eventual slump I used $4m instead of $5m but now it seems a big stretch).

 

[Trxjw]

In other words, different ages aside, learn from the mistake we made with Nylander.

This is a great parallel to draw. Sometimes players just fit and it's not necessarily an easy task to find talented players who can play with extremely talented players.

 

[Trxjw]

While we've been talking about Virtanen, a 2014 draftee, I do wonder if the Rangers could sniff around Nick Ritchie in Anaheim. Big body that can skate, has scoring pedigree, and could potentially replace a little bit of what Kreider brings if they decide to move on from him. I have him pegged as a guy who is on a bit of a Tom Wilson trajectory.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Not sure what everyone thinks but I still feel Kravtsov will have a big impact with this team at some point. Hopefully as soon as next year, but I'm expecting him to get some games in this year.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Not sure what everyone thinks but I still feel Kravtsov will have a big impact with this team at some point. Hopefully as soon as next year, but I'm expecting him to get some games in this year.

I do too. I would be shocked if he doesn't get called up towards the end of the season.

 

[LeetchisGod]

Not sure what everyone thinks but I still feel Kravtsov will have a big impact with this team at some point. Hopefully as soon as next year, but I'm expecting him to get some games in this year.

The talent is there. Just needs experience and maturity.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Derek Stepan has 12 points in 41 games, isn't even a top-10 scorer on the Yotes. Pretty sad to see, but that's a hell of a trade. It was addition by subtraction on top of the assets they got.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Derek Stepan has 12 points in 41 games, isn't even a top-10 scorer on the Yotes. Pretty sad to see, but that's a hell of a trade. It was addition by subtraction on top of the assets they got.

lmao half the posts in that thread when the trade happened were “FIRE GORTON”

 

[bl02]

While we've been talking about Virtanen, a 2014 draftee, I do wonder if the Rangers could sniff around Nick Ritchie in Anaheim. Big body that can skate, has scoring pedigree, and could potentially replace a little bit of what Kreider brings if they decide to move on from him. I have him pegged as a guy who is on a bit of a Tom Wilson trajectory.

Just don't' see a fit. Anaheim seems like a team that needs to continue a rebuild. They shouldn't be trading for guys looking for a 6-7 year deal at almost 30

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Derek Stepan has 12 points in 41 games, isn't even a top-10 scorer on the Yotes. Pretty sad to see, but that's a hell of a trade. It was addition by subtraction on top of the assets they got.

And last year he had 35pts. The decline is real and it's a steep cliff hes falling off of. 56pts then 35pts and now possibly just 24pts.

On the bright side for the Yotes he only has 1 year left.

Also fun fact, of his draft class Stepan has the 5th most points so far.

 

[bl02]

Derek Stepan has 12 points in 41 games, isn't even a top-10 scorer on the Yotes. Pretty sad to see, but that's a hell of a trade. It was addition by subtraction on top of the assets they got.

Yep most of us knew it at the time. Watching Stepan try to skate and keep up during the 2017 playoffs was a sign. Appreciate all he did (and even with Lias in bust territory) that was a great trade.

 

[Mikos87]

One of the things I'd like to explore is what would a team pay for an extended Chris Kreider?

Meaning they get to negotiate a deal before making the trade ala Mark Stone.

That should get you into the stratosphere of those A prospects.

But then again, from a pure asset management perspective, a 1st and an NHL ready B prospect gives you more currency to fill out your roster.

It's really a no lose either way. But just a matter of of options.

 

[Blue Blooded]

And last year he had 35pts. The decline is real and it's a steep cliff hes falling off of. 56pts then 35pts and now possibly just 24pts.

On the bright side for the Yotes he only has 1 year left.

Also fun fact, of his draft class Stepan has the 5th most points so far.

Something seems rotten in the state of Arizona, Step and Kessel are scoring at Cody McLeod-tier rates at 5v5 this season for some reason.

 

[JimmyG89]

And last year he had 35pts. The decline is real and it's a steep cliff hes falling off of. 56pts then 35pts and now possibly just 24pts.

On the bright side for the Yotes he only has 1 year left.

Also fun fact, of his draft class Stepan has the 5th most points so far.

He's really about to go from making his 6.5M contract per season to probably not getting anything more than a 1 year offer when this one ends. Crazy decline for him. Unless there is some way for him to change his game, he might be out of the league in 2 years time.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Yep most of us knew it at the time. Watching Stepan try to skate and keep up during the 2017 playoffs was a sign. Appreciate all he did (and even with Lias in bust territory) that was a great trade.

By the end of the Ottawa playoff series, Zibanejad had overtaken Stepan as the number one center. At this point, Zibanejad may be a top ten center in the league.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Something seems rotten in the state of Arizona, Step and Kessel are scoring at Cody McLeod-tier rates at 5v5 this season for some reason.

Yeah Kessel is pacing at 50% of his point total from last season and his lowest point/goal total since his first or second year in the league.

 

[Rangerfan4life90]

Something seems rotten in the state of Arizona, Step and Kessel are scoring at Cody McLeod-tier rates at 5v5 this season for some reason.

It makes me wonder if Stepan really declined that much that quickly, or is Arizona stifling his stats for some reason? As you said, Kessel's point totals are way down there as well.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Yeah Kessel is pacing at 50% of his point total from last season and his lowest point/goal total since his first or second year in the league.

The sudden decline is truly astounding.

 

[Blue Blooded]

It makes me wonder if Stepan really declined that much that quickly, or is Arizona stifling his stats for some reason? As you said, Kessel's point totals are way down there as well.

I have no idea. They've played a line of Keller-Stepan-Kessel with heavy offensive deployment for 130+ minutes. They have great metrics that haven't translated into goals at all.