Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLIV

[GoAwayPanarin]

Panarin's probably is. I don't think he's peaked.

I'm not even a "sign Panarin" guy - but I'd take signing Panarin over losing huge assets for Nylander any day of the week. Screw the cap, it's not going to be an issue when this team is really competing again in a few years.

This is the type of mindset which leads to it being an issue.

Most guys don't get better headed into their 30's. It does happen (Marchand for example, just had his best statistical season ever) but typically they either fall off slightly or completely.

The elite guys hold up better, but even they usually see a slight decline in their production into their early 30's. Not as drastic as say, a Stepan saw last year (at 28) but it does happen.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Hot damn this thread went completely sideways. Trading Zib and Butch, lol.
Are these are the same folks that should be lumped into the "no Panarin" and "no player under 30" crowd?
Some of you need to step away from the ledge.

Funny, one of the guys who suggested trading Zibanejad has been one of the most pro-Panarin people on the board.

Try to keep up.

 

[haohmaru]

This is the type of mindset which leads to it being an issue.

Most guys don't get better headed into their 30's. It does happen (Marchand for example, just had his best statistical season ever) but typically they either fall off slightly or completely.

The elite guys hold up better, but even they usually see a slight decline in their production into their early 30's. Not as drastic as say, a Stepan saw last year (at 28) but it does happen.

He's 27. He's not "headed into his 30's". He's headed into his late 20's.

Comparing Stepan to Panarin isn't the best example.

Take a look at Kessel, at 30, and get back to me. Patrick Kane @ 30. Ovechkin. We're talking elite wingers here, not a 2C.

I'll agree to disagree. You think Panarin has shot his load and is heading down the mountain. I think he's going to get better (depending on where he plays).

Still doesn't mean I WANT him here. I think it's a better option than losing assets for a Nylander. That's all.

 

[BBKers]

For the right piece in a hockeytrade - I would trade Buch. But the pickings are slim and we need to expose cash strapped teams weak spots heavily in such a case. Zib? Not? Now. At. All. Unless. We. Envision. Highway. Robbery (talking Great Train heist). Not happening

 

[TheGortonConspiracy]

Seriously question the talent evaluators calling for a Buch trade. Dude is dripping raw talent. Buch needs a long term contract right now.

Pionk is the biggest question mark in our RFA pool for me

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

He's 27. He's not "headed into his 30's". He's headed into his late 20's.

Comparing Stepan to Panarin isn't the best example.

Take a look at Kessel, at 30, and get back to me. Patrick Kane @ 30. Ovechkin. We're talking elite wingers here, not a 2C.

I'll agree to disagree. You think Panarin has shot his load and is heading down the mountain. I think he's going to get better (depending on where he plays).

Still doesn't mean I WANT him here. I think it's a better option than losing assets for a Nylander. That's all.

I didn't compare him to Stepan, re-read what I said.

Ov's best years were in his 20's, so I don't know what you're getting at. I can point to other examples that support what I'm saying (Crosb, Malkin, Kopitar, Marleau, Thornton, etc.)

Its not that these guys become bad players, but their best season usually occur earlier in their careers. They don't magically "get better" once they hit their 30's. Never once said that Panarin blew his load and is going to hit a steep decline, stop putting words in my mouth. To expect him to get better is pretty silly, especially when history shows that he probably won't (really, what evidence do you have that will suggest he will? outside of a hunch.)

He may, and you're right that environment does play into that, but chances are heavily stacked against that.

 

[TheGortonConspiracy]

I would be cautious comparing career arcs across generations. The game changes, teams change, coaching systems change. A lot more goals were scored this year than last year for example.

 

[kinger8998]

we all long for a #1 center and then when we get one we want to trade him and not resign him LOL. agree it's wayy to far out and I shouldn't have even participated in the argument.

as for buch, i would lock him up somewhere 5/6 years if he comes in at $4M-$4.75M. Guys got talent, and even if he doesn't reach best case scenario, that's still a good looking deal. Question is is out of him/Kakko/Kravtsov... who is off RW and onto LW, all 3 will be top-6 talents.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

Pionk gets a lot of hate. I think some here are forgetting how little NHL experience he has. He was also playing way over his head most of the season. That’s a recipe for disaster.

With more experience and coaching, I think he can have a good NHL career. 3rd pairing guy that has offensive talent.

With Shatty, ADA and Fox, he’s definitely redundant. But I’d be willing to bet he has decent value.

 

[ETTER DE]

I guess it was me that stated that Zibanejad should be traded. It was a response to a post which suggested that the Rangers should keep on drafting and do nothing else for a couple of years. I just tried to remind that he is UFA in 3 years time. It simply does not make any sense to keep him for those years and trade him then. Must be better to trade him this year or next for a young defense man/center (or a high pick) so that player can be ready in 3 years time.

 

[Leetch3]

we all long for a #1 center and then when we get one we want to trade him and not resign him LOL. agree it's wayy to far out and I shouldn't have even participated in the argument.

as for buch, i would lock him up somewhere 5/6 years if he comes in at $4M-$4.75M. Guys got talent, and even if he doesn't reach best case scenario, that's still a good looking deal. Question is is out of him/Kakko/Kravtsov... who is off RW and onto LW, all 3 will be top-6 talents.

being that kakko and kravtsov are viewed as guys we are building around compared to buch as a very good support player (not meant as a knock on him) I think my approach would be to see where kakko and kravtsov fit best/are the most comfortable. and then figure out where buch goes from there. 1 of those 2 could end up on LW and then buch becomes the #2 RW. it both of them end up on RW than either buch can move to LW or you could be stacked 3 lines deep on RW. not a bad problem to have...

 

[Leetch3]

Pionk gets a lot of hate. I think some here are forgetting how little NHL experience he has. He was also playing way over his head most of the season. That’s a recipe for disaster.

I think this is a very important thing to keep in mind, not necessarily in defense of pionk but more so about player development in general...

pionk was thrown into the fire last year, in a role that he wasn't ready for or capable of handling...and he wasn't the only guy. between lack of depth/options and the total mess in hartford the young players weren't all put in the best situation to succeed and develop and then when they struggled fans turned on them...

now thats not to say that pionk would have developed into anything special, he will be 24 this summer so he's not a 19 year old kid but this situation is what I think about when I see people looking to blow every vet off the team so we can play all the kids, it is definitely a concern that you will create bad situations for kids. I'd rather have a vet who is awful but protects the development of a key youngster than damage that youngster by putting him in over his head...

of course that being said, I'd like to think/hope that pionk's age was a factor here and as a 23 year old they were more ok with throwing him into the fire to see if he sank or swam and they would be more protective of a 19/20 year old. but his situation definitely shows that the approach of just play all the kids isn't always the best option.

 

[Waivers]

Rangers fans wanted a dirty Russian, and here we are a few years later talking about potentially trading one. Buch has very good offensive instincts and can play. His only knock is that he’s a bit too frail and is expected to be injured 10-15 games through an 82 game season. He looks to be filling out which is positive. I wouldn’t look to trade the guy.

 

[darko]

Rangers fans wanted a dirty Russian, and here we are a few years later talking about potentially trading one. Buch has very good offensive instincts and can play. His only knock is that he’s a bit too frail and is expected to be injured 10-15 games through an 82 game season. He looks to be filling out which is positive. I wouldn’t look to trade the guy.

24 already. If he doesn't break out next season will he ever?

 

[bobbop]

Based on what I saw on the ice, I’m not sure why you would want to trade Buchnevich. I had him as a bridge deal in February but now I think he’s worthy of a longer investment. I also have thought that an infusion of young Russians to the team would really help him.

I’ve got to think there’s more there than meets the hockey viewing eye.

If indeed he is available, he’s one guy who could headline a package to bring back a top four defenseman.

 

[Lone Ranger]

The only scenario that I would consider trading Buch in would be for a 1st pair right defenseman like Trouba.

 

[BBKers]

Like I said Buch would need to bring back a surefire player, ie an overpayment. More skeptical to a draft pick (even #8 as that is a pipe dam). Not at all actively advocating trading him, just saying what it would take if he were dealt. I really like him as a player and have enjoyed watching his oozing potential since his WJC, foremost I would enjoy seeing him take the last step(s) in NYR blue.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

24 already. If he doesn't break out next season will he ever?

I don't know what break out we are waiting for? For Buch to become Pastrnak? 60 point scorer?

I'm very happy with the developement this year. As another poster said, he's filling out. Plus we saw some snarl at the end of the season.
I attribute that to Quinn's coaching and some kind of Boston attitude maybe.

Buch doesn't need to "break out". He's already a great middle-6 winger, give him two more years of Quinn and he'll solidify himself.
Perfectly happy with the player he is. He's not our first liner, never was.

 

[Ola]

I think this is a very important thing to keep in mind, not necessarily in defense of pionk but more so about player development in general...

pionk was thrown into the fire last year, in a role that he wasn't ready for or capable of handling...and he wasn't the only guy. between lack of depth/options and the total mess in hartford the young players weren't all put in the best situation to succeed and develop and then when they struggled fans turned on them...

now thats not to say that pionk would have developed into anything special, he will be 24 this summer so he's not a 19 year old kid but this situation is what I think about when I see people looking to blow every vet off the team so we can play all the kids, it is definitely a concern that you will create bad situations for kids. I'd rather have a vet who is awful but protects the development of a key youngster than damage that youngster by putting him in over his head...

of course that being said, I'd like to think/hope that pionk's age was a factor here and as a 23 year old they were more ok with throwing him into the fire to see if he sank or swam and they would be more protective of a 19/20 year old. but his situation definitely shows that the approach of just play all the kids isn't always the best option.

I agree for sure. And remember when Rafalski was the same age, he was playing his first of three seasons in the SM-liiga. He didn't even make his debut for NJD before he was 26-27. Zucc kept growing well into his 30s. Not many believed in him. I remember making many posts about him, he is still growing, why would he stop now? He is better this year than last, what if he is a little better next season? Most declared Zucc a bust, worthless player not worth a contract.

If a player does really well in some areas, there is always hope for that they will be able to grow. I think Pionk is in a very similar situation to the one Zucc was in 6 years ago. I made this post on him back then (BTW I have no clue what I am getting at with the first para):

The biggest Pionk haters don't give him any credit what-so-ever for what he does really well on the ice. His ability to stay with his guy -- defensively -- is fantastic. His poise and ability to hang on to the puck under pressure is also fantastic. Two different NHL coaches has taken this small undrafted college free agent and instantly thrown him onto the 1st pair in the NHL and on many nights used him as our clear No 1 D -- for a reason. The response to that is often 'these coaches are just blind and totally clueless, there is NOTHING to see in Pionk's game'. But that is wrong. I pointed out his strengths right when I saw him in camp and in HFD. Parts of his game was/is real eye-popping.

Nobody really minded it when we got back Zucc on a one-year deal. That was luck. Many were against him getting any kind of term or AAV. Many called him a bust. But he was similar to Pionk in that sense, Zucc performed tremendously well in a few limited parts of the game even when misused and not trusted by Torts.

Pionk -- of course -- need support from the right D partner. He of course need to improve in certain areas, his main problem is that he hangs on to the puck a little too long before he make that first pass up ice and that let the opponents set up and make it harder for us to break out. He of course cannot and should not be used in a role that has been waaaay to tough for Brady Skjei and co. And so forth. But I definitely don't think that there are reasons for writing him off.

 

[Vitto79]

For the right piece in a hockeytrade - I would trade Buch. But the pickings are slim and we need to expose cash strapped teams weak spots heavily in such a case. Zib? Not? Now. At. All. Unless. We. Envision. Highway. Robbery (talking Great Train heist). Not happening

Agreed I’m thinking Trouba / Ristlainen another good RD or sign Buch

May bridge him though

 

[haohmaru]

I didn't compare him to Stepan, re-read what I said.

You used Stepan as a "drastic" example of a decline in his late 20's. Not sure why you used that example if you weren't implying that it's a possibility for Panarin.

Ov's best years were in his 20's, so I don't know what you're getting at. I can point to other examples that support what I'm saying (Crosb, Malkin, Kopitar, Marleau, Thornton, etc.)

Ovechkin has scored 49 or more goals 5 times ages 28-33 while improving drastically defensively. I'm not sure what you're getting at - his best years have been these years.

Its not that these guys become bad players, but their best season usually occur earlier in their careers. They don't magically "get better" once they hit their 30's. Never once said that Panarin blew his load and is going to hit a steep decline, stop putting words in my mouth. To expect him to get better is pretty silly, especially when history shows that he probably won't (really, what evidence do you have that will suggest he will? outside of a hunch.)

I'm not putting words in your mouth. You're saying he will likely decline from here on out. I've provided examples where elite players improved past age 27. I disagree with your entire premise that this is "likely". We don't have to agree on this. I understand your point of view but I don't think Panarin has peaked - particularly given the club he's played on. We'll see.

 

[eco's bones]

I'd be more into bridging Buchnevich than trading him. I don't think I'd be ready to give long term though. I think $3.5 mil per for two years is pretty fair. I don't want to get tied up in him long term if he's going to be a 40/45 point mostly second line player. He should do more to earn more and though I think he's capable of that I'm not sure it's going to happen.

 

[Kaapo Cabana]

Pionk gets a lot of hate. I think some here are forgetting how little NHL experience he has. He was also playing way over his head most of the season. That’s a recipe for disaster.

With more experience and coaching, I think he can have a good NHL career. 3rd pairing guy that has offensive talent.

With Shatty, ADA and Fox, he’s definitely redundant. But I’d be willing to bet he has decent value.

Pionk is always in over his head.

Thats the problem.

If we can trick a team into thinking he is worth something then sign me up.

 

[charliemurphy]

Funny, one of the guys who suggested trading Zibanejad has been one of the most pro-Panarin people on the board.

Try to keep up.

Now that's funny, lol

 

[ETTER DE]

Is there a spot for Buch next year? If Kappo is drafted and Kravtsov makes the team and they decide to use Chytil as a RW (Gorton talked about that), they need someone who can PK (Fast or Strome?) for the last spot. Both Strome and Fast are RH as well. All the others LH.