Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLIV

[Levitate]

I mean you could say that about any player due a new contract.

But what have you seen in his game that leads you to believe he can become a 70pt player? Seems like a bit of a stretch, no?

The last two years he has scored at close to a 50 point pace while not really reaching his potential. I say not reaching his potential because of the inconsistencies in his play and the way the coaches have demoted and scratched him at times. If (and it certainly may be a big if) his end of season stretch last year is an indicator of a corner being turned by him and he can earn the trust of his coaches, receive more consistent top six playing time and power play time and keep up his level of play, I don't think it's crazy to see him push 60 points in that circumstance. At that point then your question is whether that is his top end or if mayyybe has has a bit more to give with the right teammates. Could he or Kakko play the other side of the ice and share 1st line winger spots with Zibanejad? That could be a fantastic opportunity for him.

 

[alkurtz]

What kind of team are you going to run out there? Getting beat every night is no way to nurture a young group.

You don’t understand the culture part of rebuilding.

This is so true and something many people ignore. It is especially true with young D and young goalies. It is so enticing to say lets just put our young players out there and let them grow together. But that is not how to nurture young players. While developing, they must experience success in order to grow. Losing breeds a losing culture. While rebuilding, we must keep up the talent level on the team either by retaining or adding within reason.

 

[eco's bones]

So Mika becomes UFA but decides he wants to stay. He'd be 29. What sort of contract do you give him? He'll get 6-7 years on the market. Do you want to pay top dollar to Ziba on a contract that takes him to 35-36. I sure as hell don't.

At $5.35 mil per for the next three years if he continues at even close to the same pace Mika is an absolute bargain for the Rangers. He will definitely want to get paid more on his next contract--$8 mil for 8 years--could be? It won't be $5.35. So there's loyalty from a player and there's loyalty from a team and especially if you've relied on this player to lead your team offensively while at the same time not made enough progress to get back into the playoffs. That will be several straight years for him of being underpaid and outside of the playoffs. And then there's what's sensible because there's loyalty to the fans to be considered too--to put out the best team possible and if we're not sure this guy's contract is going to be an albatross the second half of that deal then we should let him go.

Zibanejad's a great player. He is unquestionably the Rangers best player right now but he's not very likely going to the Hall of Fame when his career is done--maybe he's somewhere between the top dozen/15 centers in the league. He's very valuable but he's also movable for the right price. To me he could bring back a McDonagh like return. That's where I think this is eventually heading-- a couple/three years down the road.

 

[Levitate]

And even if Buch is traded as part of a package for the 8th overall...the Rangers might still be lucky to pick a player at 8 that actually pans out to be as good as Buchnevich offensively. It's a big risk IMO.

 

[kinger8998]

Okay, taking in everyone's arguments....I can say one thing with certainty: Mika Zibanejad will either be signed or traded.

But in all seriousness, we are going to be forced to commit to Zibanejad. Kaapo is a winger, so is Kravtsov. There has not been a Stanley Cup winner in this decade that did not have an elite center. Zibanejad is still a step below all those guys, but he's the closest thing we've got on our roster or in our pipeline. IF we let him go right when we are about to "get competitive" if undoes all the success. We sure as hell need to find a guy, whether it be a FA, trade, or draft in 2020, that can be that guy. If not, we're going to have to sign Zibanejad to a possibly awful deal or we took all those steps forward just to take half of them back.

 

[NYR Viper]

Oh man. I'd be over the moon as long as that cap dump isn't Lucic.

Pionk + Buch for 8 + Kassian. That kind of deal definitely favors us, no doubt about it. Still. Would be nice



If the right deal comes our way, I think you absolutely consider it. I don't think we should actively be shopping him though.

I'm still game for Lucic with $$ retained for Smith

I was on the Kassian bandwagon early last year when he was struggling. His size and skating are a weapon in a depth role

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

And even if Buch is traded as part of a package for the 8th overall...the Rangers might still be lucky to pick a player at 8 that actually pans out to be as good as Buchnevich offensively. It's a big risk IMO.

He was a 3rd round pick. I would certainly hope a player drafted at 8 in round 1 would be as good as Buchnevich. I really don't get the infatuation with him. He's a fine player and all but he seems like one of the most expendable guys on the roster right now.

 

[Levitate]

He was a 3rd round pick. I would certainly hope a player drafted at 8 in round 1 would be as good as Buchnevich. I really don't get the infatuation with him. He's a fine player and all but he seems like one of the most expendable guys on the roster right now.

that is not how drafting and player development works.

e: he's literally one of the few young/drafted players on the roster these past few years who has legitimate demonstrated top six scoring ability. He's better than Chytil, Andersson, Howden, he may always be better than them offensively. He will be better than Kravtsov next season, maybe even Kakko.

He's 24 years old and despite up and down starts to his career (with 1.5 years of that under a coach who literally would not talk to him and tell him what he needed to do differently) he has produced at a .47+ points per game average

As I said, he's exactly the kind of player the Rangers should be trying to coax more out of at this point, not trying to trade because he didn't hit the ground running as a 1st line player immediately upon entering the NHL.

 

[Off Sides]

Chicago must have had a losing culture to draft where they did for two years in row, and they turned it around to win some Cups.

Oldest and only forward of significant production on Kane and Toews rookie teams, a 36 year old Lang. Oldest and only forward of significant production in their 2nd NHL years, a 27 year old Havlat.

They had several other younger players, both forward and defense who were talented, which the Rangers would too.

They added Hossa in the 3rd year of Toews and Kane.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

that is not how drafting and player development works.

Thank you for enlightening me. You like Pavel, cool. I do too. But he's not a player I wouldn't trade for the 8th pick in the first round this year. I'm sure he's going to have a solid NHL career as a 50 pt. winger. But there isn't anything remarkably special about his game.

 

[bobbop]

Zubov wanted out of the lineup often and had to be pushed out on the ice by the coaches. He tried to shut it down one year in the playoffs.The Rangers had it up to here with him.

 

[kinger8998]

Including Kaapo as part of our system, this is what I see our team needing to look like when we are ready to contend:

? - Zibanejad/? - Kakko
? - Chytil - Kravtsov
Lemieux - Andersson - ?
Gettinger/? - Howden - Ronning/?

Question: Where does Buch fit? Does he move to LW? Get traded when/if he breaks out?

Miller - Fox
Skjei/? - DeA
Hajek/Lindgren/? - Lundkvist

Shesterkin
Hank/?

Lots of question marks. If we let Zbad walk and have no replacement, do you really want to have Chytil 1C? Are we even sure he's truly a C? May be better suited for development as wing and then he could reach those elite flashes we see as 1LW. Nearly impossible to predict, especially with split opinions on Skjei/Zbad/Hank/Hajek&Lindgren

 

[Levitate]

Thank you for enlightening me. You like Pavel, cool. I do too. But he's not a player I wouldn't trade for the 8th pick in the first round this year. I'm sure he's going to have a solid NHL career as a 50 pt. winger. But there isn't anything remarkably special about his game.

Maybe it depends on who is there at 8 (a top flight center prospect? Sure, that makes sense), but it becomes real hit or miss at that point in the draft whether the guy you get is going to be a real offensive contributor or just another bust/plug. And I think a 50 point player in the NHL these days is maybe not "special" but should not be undervalued either. Again, look at this team...even adding Kakko and Kravtsov, the Rangers need more skill. Buchnevich has skill and 50 points is nothing at all to sneeze at. If they move him it absolutely has to be for something that will be better than a 50 point winger.

 

[bobbop]

I never realized how important culture was until I got to Roanoke and thought I knew everything about hockey. I got myself into a situation I couldn’t solve. All the talent in the world doesn’t solve problems in the room

 

[Levitate]

Including Kaapo as part of our system, this is what I see our team needing to look like when we are ready to contend:

? - Zibanejad/? - Kakko
? - Chytil - Kravtsov
Lemieux - Andersson - ?
Gettinger/? - Howden - Ronning/?

Question: Where does Buch fit? Does he move to LW? Get traded when/if he breaks out?

Miller - Fox
Skjei/? - DeA
Hajek/Lindgren/? - Lundkvist

Shesterkin
Hank/?

Lots of question marks. If we let Zbad walk and have no replacement, do you really want to have Chytil 1C? Are we even sure he's truly a C? May be better suited for development as wing and then he could reach those elite flashes we see as 1LW. Nearly impossible to predict, especially with split opinions on Skjei/Zbad/Hank/Hajek&Lindgren

And yeah I meant to say the thing with Zibanejad is until the Rangers manage to hit upon a center prospect or trade for a young guy with top line center potential, they might as well hold onto Zibanejad and even re-sign him if necessary. If you don't have the up and coming players to replace him then you're looking at free agents and similar players nearing the end of their contracts anyways and at that point you're going to be spending the same kind of money on someone the same age. Probably.

 

[Levitate]

I never realized how important culture was until I got to Roanoke and thought I knew everything about hockey. I got myself into a situation I couldn’t solve. All the talent in the world doesn’t solve problems in the room

No idea if you're still talking about Buchnevich. If there is a problem with him in the room then yeah that's a legitimate reason to be looking for ways to move on from a player. From what little we fans get to see, he seems to have his friends on the team like Zibanejad and Kreider. If there's some legitimate insider info about him and the locker room then no one has gone on the record so to speak

 

[Cag29]

Zubov's primary issues at the time tended to be with coaches. His conditioning was suspect and had some issues with nervousness that led into chain smoking.

That was a horrible trade. IMHO. Zubie was brilliant at the point with Leetch PP.
he defended well against guys like Bure but struggled against bigger forwards. As good as Neil Smith was his first 5 years he was equally bad the next 5. But I do thank him for 94! We did pay a steep price but well worth it.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

I never realized how important culture was until I got to Roanoke and thought I knew everything about hockey. I got myself into a situation I couldn’t solve. All the talent in the world doesn’t solve problems in the room

Those problems are going to be even more glaring now without Zucc's magic show in the locker room in between periods.

 

[Leetch3]

american buch is a keeper. you can't have all european players

 

[FIRE DRURY]

american buch is a keeper. you can't have all european players

Worked pretty good for Finland.

 

[Leetch3]

Worked pretty good for Finland.

you only think that cause you haven't seen american kakko yet

 

[bobbop]

No idea if you're still talking about Buchnevich. If there is a problem with him in the room then yeah that's a legitimate reason to be looking for ways to move on from a player. From what little we fans get to see, he seems to have his friends on the team like Zibanejad and Kreider. If there's some legitimate insider info about him and the locker room then no one has gone on the record so to speak

My comment had nothing to do with Buchnevich. It was for the other ongoing spat about losing culture.

 

[thethirdhockeyman91]

I'm still game for Lucic with $$ retained for Smith

I was on the Kassian bandwagon early last year when he was struggling. His size and skating are a weapon in a depth role

Absolutely not, Lucic has more term and bigger cap. He’s also one of the worst players in the league now.

 

[Ola]

I mean you could say that about any player due a new contract.

But what have you seen in his game that leads you to believe he can become a 70pt player? Seems like a bit of a stretch, no?

A lot of flaws! Inconsistent effort, doesn't quite seem to realize what it takes. Weak physically, can at least become stronger and faster. Can improve his shot, especially wrister. Can mature mentally. Can become more confidence. He has had a hard time getting going early in seasons and again after injuries. Can develop more chemistry with teammates.

I mean, like when I look at Howden's game, at Strome's game, at Vesey's game, Names game, and nearly see the same room for improvement within reach if you get what I mean.

I think pts target are pretty meaningless, environment can easily make +/- 15 pts, so a "60 pts player" could just as well score 45 in one environment and 75 in another, and that isn't even enough. In an unusual cases it can surely be at least +/- 25 pts. But I wouldn't at all be surprised if Buch can peak as someone who has get a good amount of pts 1-2 years at least and is very solid a few years before and after that.

I don't think Kovalev's output is a bad example at all:
38 pts in 65 games
56 pts in 76 games
28 pts in 48 games
58 pts in 81 games
35 pts in 45 games
53 pts in 73 games
53 pts in 77 games
46 pts in 63 games
95 pts in 79 games
76 pts in 67 games
64 pts in 54 games
before leveling off his final 9 seasons (damn he had many of them). Kovalev had more talent in a sense, but the game was also different, he was a bit more of a "misfit" too, all Europeans were back then.

Before Buch came to the NHL I compared him to Loui Eriksson in terms of potential impact. I think Eriksson's career also might be one that Buch could follow, don't think its unreasonable at all:

Of course some of those stats are impacted by Loui being on a real strong line with Neal and Richards. But that's how it is with all stats.

 

[Levitate]

My comment had nothing to do with Buchnevich. It was for the other ongoing spat about losing culture.

Got it, and yeah I agree about needing to build a team with a good locker room and team culture. Throwing all the kids in the deep end and trading everyone over 25 because you might need to give them another contract seems like a bad way to build a contender to me.