Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLII

[NYR Viper]

I think think the idea would be that Panarin would help the team be better. That doesn’t mean that he alone would get them in the playoffs next year. As the young players develop he would help, in a major way, get them to where they want to be.

 

[Calad]

So we will pay Panarin $11/7 even though he alone doesn't move the team up in the standings at all, and we need to add more Panarins in the future so his $11 annual million win us any games at all? Did I get that right? I want you to state it in the most clear and direct language instead of 80% of your response being a personal attack and the rest being a general, indirect statement that says nothing about how many points he delivers.

Please pick one:

1. For $11/7, he doesn't win us any games we couldn't have won with Beleskey in his place.

2. For $11/7, he does help us win games, but it somehow doesn't result in worse lottery odds.

3. For $11/7, he helps us win zero points right now, but he would help in the future and only if we first add more star players.

Please say it directly with a direct statement about how his presence affects our point total.

You sure like asking loaded questions, don't you?

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

Extremely Drunk Prpsal

1. Buyout B. Smith
2. Trade Chris Kreider (33% retained) and Brady Skjei for W. Nylander + P. Marleau + a conditional pick in 2020 (based on Kreiders resigning)
3. Trade Vlad Namestnikov (50% retained), #58 plus rights to F. Claesson to TBL for Ryan Callahan and #27 (2019 1st rounder)
4. Trade Neil Pionk plus Bo Nieves to DRW for their #66 (2019 3rd rounder) plus Dominic Turgeon
5. Trade Jimmy Vesey to EDM for Z Bogosian and their 2020 3rd round pic
6. Sign Adam McQuaid and Michael Ferland as UFA
7. Mats Zuccarello resigns in Dallas rendering NYR the Dallas first round pick in 2020

Nylander - Zinbad - Kakko
Marleau (=> Kravtsov) - Chytil/Strome - Buch
Ferland - Howden - Strome/Chytil
Lemmy - Lias - Fast
Callahan, Bogosian

Staal (=> Miller) - TDA
Hajek - Shattenkirk (=> Seider/Lundkvist)
Lindgren/Rykov/Vet - Fox
McQuaid

Hank w Georgie/Shesty taking turns shuffling duties using waiver exempt Wolfpack call ups
Eventually we trade Jesper Fast and/or Ryan Strome at the TDL

Draft ideas
KK @ #2
1st round Winnipeg (#20 OA) - Morris Seider
2nd round Tampa Bay (#58 OA => #27 OA) - Tobias Björnfot
2nd round Dallas (#49 OA) - Pavel Dorofeyev
3rd rounder Traded from Detroit (#66 OA) - Robert Mastrosimone
3rd round NYR (#68 OA) - Albin Grewe
4th round Columbus (#111 OA) - Trevor Janicke
5th round NYR (#130 OA) - Kari Piiroinen
6th round NYR (#161 OA) - Jackson van de Leest
7th round Columbus (#204 OA) - Lucas Feuk

Lots of nice pics in 2020 too

only thing that made sense was the 6th round pick, no idea who that is, but with a name like that I would totally trash our 6th rounder on it. Going to research this guy now...wow a 6'6" Dman I am totally on board for this one.

 

[Beacon]

You sure like asking loaded questions, don't you?

These are not loaded questions. These are calls for direct answers. What do we get for giving a player $11/7?

I'll repeat the options. Please pick one:

1. For $11/7, he doesn't win us any games we couldn't have won with Beleskey in his place.

2. For $11/7, he does help us win games, but it somehow doesn't result in worse lottery odds.

3. For $11/7, he helps us win zero points right now, but he would help in the future and only if we first add more star players.

4. Something else, but please explain what it could possibly be and say it directly with a direct statement about how his presence affects our point total.

 

[Beacon]

You’re being deliberately obtuse.

No, I'm being very deliberately direct. Instead of general wording meant to obfuscate the meaning of the double-think here, I'm asking him to explain how Panarin affects our standings. Does he improve the team, which would mean lower lottery odds and lower our pre-lottery spot? Or does he fail to improve the team, in which case why is he paid $11 million?

And if he fails to improve the current team, but would improve it after the rebuild, exactly and directly explain in what universe that happens? If anything, he's at his peak now and would raise us in standings the most now while we're rebuilding and need top picks, not when the rebuilding is over and he's over 30.

 

[Bob Richards]

why is this turning into a choose your own adventure novel

he's an elite player and 30 goal, 85 point Panarin would literally be an objective positive for the team.

The takes lately that "Elite Player X doesn't do anything for us next year" is honestly dumb. Of course he does. He'd instantly be the best player on the damn team lol

A guy who could challenge the highest point total a Ranger has had in over a decade is actually a fraud because he doesn't meet some convoluted and ridiculously arbitrary criteria that only exists as "if his points don't lead to a Cup or they win just enough games to hurt our lottery odds then they're not real"

 

[Beacon]

What’s not to get? Not sure why you find this concept so foreign...

Zibanejad is a good player; he didn’t stop us from being 6th worst. So is Kreider; he didn’t stop us from being 6th worst either...

We went from being 8th worst with Zuccarello and Hayes to 2nd worst after we traded them. That's their value right there, give or take a little. If we didn't have them all year, we'd have been even worse because kids were more ready to take over greater responsibility 5 months into the season than at Game 1.

If we didn't have Kreider and Zibanejad, I assure you we would've been worse than #6.

You're not responding to what I asked about Panarin directly because the answer will make no sense.

But the question is very simple: if Panarin makes the team better, how can that not reduce our lottery odds? And if he doesn't make the team better, why is he getting $11/7?

Your answer is basically that we'll still be bad, but you refuse to answer whether we will be less bad with Panarin than with Lettieri in the lineup. Because the answer is obvious.

 

[Beacon]

Understand this please: the difference of a few picks is massive. A #9 overall pick has literally a 50% chance of being a 4th liner or a total bust. A 4th overall pick, has a tiny chance of that. A 1st overall is probably, very likely an All Star several/many times over.

You sign Panarin, and statistically you're most likely to walk away with Malhotra and McIlrath in 2020 and 2021. You trade Kreider and sign nobody big, and you have something like a 60-70% shot of getting another Kakko in 2020 or 2021, plus another prospect superior to Kravtsov.

Yes, life has no guarantees. You can draft Leetch at #9 and Brendl at #4, but the odds of success on the draft day are MASSIVELY different and in favor of #4.

Panarin+Kreider will be that difference between a 2-5OA pick that has a great chance to be a first liner or at least top-6 vs a 10-12OA that has greater than 50% odds of being a bust.

 

[Calad]

why is this turning into a choose your own adventure novel

he's an elite player and 30 goal, 85 point Panarin would literally be an objective positive for the team.

The takes lately that "Elite Player X doesn't do anything for us next year" is honestly dumb. Of course he does. He'd instantly be the best player on the damn team lol

A guy who could challenge the highest point total a Ranger has had in over a decade is actually a fraud because he doesn't meet some convoluted and ridiculously arbitrary criteria that only exists as "if his points don't lead to a Cup or they win just enough games to hurt our lottery odds then they're not real"

No you dont understand, if the team isn't competing for a stanley cup clearly you have to become a reincarnation of the Oilers or Sabres otherwise you should just fold the team

 

[Beacon]

he's an elite player and 30 goal, 85 point Panarin would literally be an objective positive for the team.

The takes lately that "Elite Player X doesn't do anything for us next year" is honestly dumb. Of course he does. He'd instantly be the best player on the damn team lol

A guy who could challenge the highest point total a Ranger has had in over a decade is actually a fraud because he doesn't meet some convoluted and ridiculously arbitrary criteria that only exists as "if his points don't lead to a Cup or they win just enough games to hurt our lottery odds then they're not real"

The objective is not to buy a Panarin jersey, the objective is to win the Cup. If the only thing Panarin achieves is to get us a much worse prospect in the draft, we're just moving away from the real target.

 

[Beacon]

I think think the idea would be that Panarin would help the team be better. That doesn’t mean that he alone would get them in the playoffs next year. As the young players develop he would help, in a major way, get them to where they want to be.

That's exactly my point. The team would get better, but still fail to go anywhere. Instead of getting 2 top prospects in 2020 and 2021 in the top-5 or so, we get 2 mediocre guys around #12-14.

Panarin literally puts us in the worst possible spot: we neither get a deep playoff run nor a star prospect.

 

[Beacon]

No you dont understand, if the team isn't competing for a stanley cup clearly you have to become a reincarnation of the Oilers or Sabres otherwise you should just fold the team

Neither of those did what I'm suggesting. They collapsed into the last place. The Rangers have a controlled rebuild. The Rangers ship away vets as kids get ready, and acquire kids on top of their own picks vs the Oilers who lost everything for nothing and tried to rebuild with 1 OA picks, plugging kids where they don't yet belong.

Comparing organized rebuilding to a collapse is like comparing quietly walk ins down the stairs with falling out the window: you wind up at the bottom in both cases, but the process leaves one destroyed, but not the other.

 

[egelband]

excellent article:

New York Rangers: Roster issues to deal with soon

Very interesting insight regarding the Fox trade. Also interesting regarding the roster spots, though probably not as big a worry as the writer implies. I would imagine most teams have similar concerns. But definitely good point about the roster restrictions. They do have to be judicious with those spots.

 

[egelband]

At this point, I'd love to have an ignore feature for all posts with the word, "Panarin".

 

[Mac n Gs]

Just for fun, here are the 9th overall picks since 2010:

Mikael Granlund: 477 GP: 94-228-322
Dougie Hamilton: 505GP: 82-177-259
Jacob Trouba: 408GP: 42-137- 179
Bo Horvat: 377GP: 98-124-222
Nik Ehlers: 298GP: 90-109-199
Timo Meier: 193GP: 54-54-108
Mikhail Sergachev: 158GP: 15-57-72
Michael Rasmussen: 62GP: 8-10-18
Vitali Kravtsov: Alexander Yakushev
Trevor Zegras (NYR) Jack Hughes, who?

If I kept going back, you have Jared Cowen, Josh Bailey, Logan Couture, Commander Sheppard, Brian Lee, Ladislav Smid, Double Dion, Petr Taticek, Tummo Ruutu, and Brent Krahn.

Using only positional analysis, especially when it factors in pre-lockout draft years requires much-improved analysis. With how much information is available about prospects now, projection models and scouting has drastically improved. Plus, the salary cap has made it a necessity that younger players get thrust into the NHL more quickly than they did in the past.

 

[Vitto79]

At this point, I'd love to have an ignore feature for all posts with the word, "Panarin".

You may get lucky and his rights are dealt soon , FLA not gonna wait and CLB needs draft picks

 

[Vitto79]

So Buffalo or Yotes 1st a target for Kreider ?

Would he negotiate signing an extension w another team ?

 

[Vitto79]

What would Spurgeon cost out of Minnesota ? 1 year left but would they take UFAs because of That?

Vesey , Namestnikov will be talked about In Deals . Pionk could replace Spurgeon although it weakens their RD

Shatty at 50 as part of it ? Take Foligno back ?

 

[RGY]

So Buffalo or Yotes 1st a target for Kreider ?

Would he negotiate signing an extension w another team ?

Just because he played with Eichel and Keller does not mean he is being traded to either place.

People are way too quick to trade Kreider here.

 

[Calad]

So Buffalo or Yotes 1st a target for Kreider ?

Would he negotiate signing an extension w another team ?

You hope he waives to go to either of those places. 11 team NTC. I wouldn't if I were him

 

[Vitto79]

Just because he played with Eichel and Keller does not mean he is being traded to either place.

People are way too quick to trade Kreider here.

I’m just looking at who makes sense ... both those teams are in win now mode they’ve had a lot of top picks and now be need to make the playoffs

 

[eco's bones]

So we will pay Panarin $11/7 even though he alone doesn't move the team up in the standings at all, and we need to add more Panarins in the future so his $11 annual million win us any games at all? Did I get that right? I want you to state it in the most clear and direct language instead of 80% of your response being a personal attack and the rest being a general, indirect statement that says nothing about how many points he delivers.

Please pick one:

1. For $11/7, he doesn't win us any games we couldn't have won with Beleskey in his place.

2. For $11/7, he does help us win games, but it somehow doesn't result in worse lottery odds.

3. For $11/7, he helps us win zero points right now, but he would help in the future and only if we first add more star players.

Please say it directly with a direct statement about how his presence affects our point total.

By this logic we absolutely have the wrong coach and we should get rid of not only Kreider but even more importantly Zibanejad. We should rehire Gernander not as the Wolfpack coach but as the Rangers coach. Because for one thing it's not as easy for a team to guarantee itself a top 5 pick as some would think. The only guarantee is if you are one of the worst two teams in the league. So having a coach that pushes his team or a legit 1C are things you absolutely don't need if that's what you have in mind.

And it's not important bringing up kids like Chytil, Andersson or even Kakko in an environment where they have a chance to win on any given night or even important if Henrik absolutlely loses it one night after the team's been bombed for the umpteenth time. Not even important that the paying customers are asked to pay for and watch a shitshow where a dispirited team goes through the minimum it takes to try to win. Because in such a situation the last thing you need is any kind of accountability--the only thing that's important is getting another lottery pick next year.

To be honest if we're doing that I'd leave Kakko over in Finland for another year and I would have left Kravtsov in the KHL.

 

[Heckler81]

The objective is not to buy a Panarin jersey, the objective is to win the Cup. If the only thing Panarin achieves is to get us a much worse prospect in the draft, we're just moving away from the real target.

So you want throw away an entire season for the hopes of having better odds for the first pick? On top of that, you need to hope that the ping pong balls fall your way.

Too much uncertainty....

Maybe it is easy for you to say yes to that. I know I am with a bunch of other people that go to 20+ games every year. Who wants to spend a lot of money on a tanking team?

We are not rebuilding, we are retooling.

Sign Panarin and trade Kreider for a 2020 1st. We upgrade team and get more draft capital. Sounds like a win/win.

 

[RangerBoy]

Arizona was very interested in Shattenkirk in the the summer/fall of 2016. Shattenkirk didn’t want to sign an extension with the Coyotes. Would they be interested in Shattenkirk again? They would get him at a cheaper price.

Edmonton was interested in Shattenkirk. He isn’t going there. He has a 10 team trade list. Edmonton is definitely on it. Hall for Shattenkirk. He wouldn’t sign an extension with Edmonton.

TB was interested. He rejected a contract extension from TB. 6 years and $42M. No state income tax. Shattenkirk should have signed that contract. Tyler Johnson for Shattenkirk. TB has too many bad long term contracts.

Would Yzerman want him in Detroit? He tried to acquire him in TB.

SJ was interested many years ago. Shattenkirk and Oshie to SJ for a 1st round pick(Timo Meier) and a roster player. Pavelski? They have Burns and Karlsson. They want to keep Karlsson.

Las Vegas tried to get Karlsson. Would they be interested in Shattenkirk? McPhee has many long term contracts on his books too.

 

[RangerBoy]

Kreider’s contract extension will be an eyesore. 6 years and $37M to $42M. Are you kidding me?