Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLII

[Amazing Kreiderman]

But does Gorton have the eye for talent to make these calls?

Yes

 

[Ola]

Dubi had 2 x 40+ points seasons as a young budding forward. No red flags etc. NYR had no cap at that time, so signed him to a 2 x 1,85 million bride contract. After that bridge he signed a 4 x 4,2 mill contract coming off a 54 point season as NYR point leader. Then he was UFA and signed a 6 x 5,85 million contract. Could he signed a 7 x 3,7 million contract instead of the bridge when he was 23?

The biggest problem with the Staal and Girardi contracts was that they was to old when they signed their big contracts. The goal should be long contracts trough a players prime, and have them end at the 29-32 age. Staal was a top 4 dman when his ELC ran out. He signed a 5 year long contract followed by a 6 year old contract (the albatross we have now). Had he signed a 8 year deal after his ELC instead, we would have been done with him last summer. We would have gotten all of the good years, and less of the bad years, and due to the cap rising his contract would be less % of the cap at the end when he had his bad years. Another plus is the cheaper buyout of players under 25 if something goes really wrong.

Zib signed a 5 x 5,35 deal at age 24. How much more expensive would he have been at a 7 year deal to take him to 31? The next deal he signs will be at age 29. That deal will be massive in cap hit, and long in term. The tail end of that contract could be really nasty.

There is always a risk with long contracts, but the only young Ranger I can remember from 2011 to today that turned out "bad" after being a core piece for several seasons before his ELC ended is Del Zotto.
But even a bad Del Zotto got a 2 year deal from Flyers at almost double the bridge deal he signed with NYR after his ELC. Young players that are a bit overpaid still holds some value like Strome did for Edmonton.

Couldn't agree more. Imagine if we had signed Staal to a 7 year contract? If we had signed Kreider to a 7 year contract? If we had locked up Hayes long-term?

Then someone will say, but what if those players didn't want a 7 year contract? But that is the same as saying what if those players want 16m per. You don't put a 4-5 year contract in front of a 22 y/o kid just as you don't give him 16m per just because he wants it.

We resigned Anton Strålman to a 2 year 1.7m contract in 2012. He was 25 y/o. Why?? He had 5 kids at the time, went on record saying that all he wanted was job security, the longer contract the better.

 

[wafflepadsave]

Yeah there's no one ready to take the minutes that Skjei can give you. Maybe Hajek is that guy a while from now, maybe Miller comes in after another year or two, but right now no one is going to be able to handle that spot

I don’t see Miller contributing for three years.

 

[apoptygma]

But does Gorton have the eye for talent to make these calls?

I believe so..
Its usually not a option for a team as most are up against the cap or their internal budget. NYR is a unique place after the 20-21 season ends.
Several talented players coming off their ELC in a 3 year span and at the same time tons of cap space. They have the room to take that higher hit the first couple of years.
The prospect of having (if everything goes as we hope) Chytil, Andersson, Howden, Buch, Kakko, Kravtsov and our high 2020 1. rounder being on less then market contracts over a long period is just so tempting. If a Panarin/Tavares UFA comes again we can add him to the core without gutting our team. Draft good, and we can then trade one of the still in the 20's and cost controlled guys on a good contract for a missing piece or a haul in prospects/picks. Do our own Johansson/Seth Jones tradeor Nash trade.

Edit:
Also dont have to only be for our top guys, take a look on Calle Järnkroks contract at Nashville. Everybody laughed a 3/4 liner signing a 6 year contract, but its becomming a real steal. The savings arent that big over a long period, but its still added space and stabiity.

 

[Off Sides]

But does Gorton have the eye for talent to make these calls?

I'd say yes, and I also am hoping he sees that if this rebuild goes well, which would be the hope and point, that he reserves enough cap space to pay for all the stockpiling as it gets more and more expensive.

Like how much will this all cost by say the 2023 off-season?

Buchnevich
DeAngelo
Lemieux
Pionk

Georgiev or/and Shesterkin, or one and a backup of some type.

Chytil
Andersson
Hajek
Howden
Lindgren
Rykov (if signed)

Kravtsov
Miller
Lundkvist
#2 pick 2019
#20 pick 2019 ?

Fox

Not trying to say all will make it, but even beyond those who are already signed, the ones who are signed sooner rather than later will all have their entry levels end by then, if bridged those bridges likely ending or close to ending by that 2023 off-season too.

Also not saying all will be kept but even if not their replacements will cost something.

Do they keep Skjei or replace him with something more expensive or cheaper?

Does Zbad also get extended?

Are they extending Kreider?

Are they carrying some 10-12M cap hit player throughout and beyond all that too?

Does the 2020 pick should that happen also sign soon after and have his entry level end in 2023?

What if they get the Dallas 2020 pick and he too makes it and signs?

All the other picks and prospects beyond what I have listed?

It's going to be interesting to see how that is all handled. Yet I do think when I hear them speak of flexibility that is what they are talking about. It would not make much sense to have this rebuild go awesome then not have the cap space to retain the most important parts of it, or not be able to keep/add the depth require beyond that, or not have the cap space to fill the gaps the stockpiling missed, or not to be able to make a great trade or even a signing should one come about due to cap space constraints.

Add in expansion and the CBA ending within that time frame, and I think they are really well setup on most fronts, I think they just need to apply a good amount of patience to see what unfolds out of all that.

 

[ETTER DE]

But does Gorton have the eye for talent to make these calls?

In the end, this is what will define if this rebuild will be a success or not.

 

[ETTER DE]

And the signings of Smith and Shattenkirk make me worried.

 

[Vitto79]

Shatty to Detroit for a guy like Helm? East some $ to make it even out?

or Smith for Helm straight up? or don't bother lol

Wings looking to fill in there D and Rangers could move out a D with kids coming

 

[Beacon]

Now do the one about how the team favored to win the cup, up 3-0, has a roster where the highest draft pick was 14th overall.

Not a fan of these fun facts now are we?

This is a misunderstanding of how it works. Draft picks are lottery tickets with different odds. A top-5 draftee is very likely to be an above average NHL player, but a late first rounder has something like a 10-15% chance, depending on the draft.

Obviously if you grab Pastrnak, who cares if you got him at #25 or #2. But on the draft day, you can REASONABLY rely your #2 to become a first liner or at least top-6, but you can't do that with #25 because the odds are so much against you.

That's like saying, "Look, Bill Gates dropped out of college and made $100 billion." True, but until you prove you're on par with Bill Gates, I'll assume that you dropping out of college is more likely to result in you making the AVERAGE dropout salary rather than ownership of a hi-tech behemoth.

 

[Tawnos]

This is a misunderstanding of how it works. Draft picks are lottery tickets with different odds. A top-5 draftee is very likely to be an above average NHL player, but a late first rounder has something like a 10-15% chance, depending on the draft.

Obviously if you grab Pastrnak, who cares if you got him at #25 or #2. But on the draft day, you can REASONABLY rely your #2 to become a first liner or at least top-6, but you can't do that with #25 because the odds are so much against you.

That's like saying, "Look, Bill Gates dropped out of college and made $100 billion." True, but until you prove you're on par with Bill Gates, I'll assume that you dropping out of college is more likely to result in you making the AVERAGE dropout salary rather than ownership of a hi-tech behemoth.

Well, actually no they aren't. The odds of a particular draft slot or draft range have no real connection to the next player drafted there.

 

[Off Sides]

Shatty to Detroit for a guy like Helm? East some $ to make it even out?

or Smith for Helm straight up? or don't bother lol

Wings looking to fill in there D and Rangers could move out a D with kids coming

I don't dislike the idea, side note Helm has one of the most interesting NTC I've ever seen.

CLAUSE DETAILS: Full NTC throughout (2018-19: NTC may be voided between June 15, 2019 & 2019-20 NHL Trade deadline, if player is not in the Top 9 F in TOI, or if team does not qualify for the playoffs | 2019-20: NTC may be voided between June 15, 2020 & final day of the contract, if player is not in the Top 9 F in TOI, or if team does not qualify for the playoffs)

 

[Beacon]

Well, actually no they aren't. The odds of a particular draft slot or draft range have no real connection to the next player drafted there.

There's probably a reason why a player drops to #25 and isn't even considered at #3. He can overcome those reasons at some point between the ages of 18 and 25, but it's not random if all the GMs uniformly like one guy over another.

 

[Tawnos]

There's probably a reason why a player drops to #25 and isn't even considered at #3. He can overcome those reasons at some point between the ages of 18 and 25, but it's not random if all the GMs uniformly like one guy over another.

No it isn't and that's not what I was saying. Projecting past odds onto future players is essentially a form of gambler's fallacy.

 

[NernieBichols]

https://www.tsn.ca/video/final-four-nhl-teams-don-t-have-a-player-making-more-than-8-million~1682400

But quick, sign UFAs. That's how you build a winner.

And this article was promptly followed by one saying it’s the first year in like 12 years where mega money players weren’t powering the remaining teams or eventual winning team.

 

[Off Sides]

Odds are different than making a gambler's fallacy assumption.

Saying something has a 1 in 10 chance of happening are different than saying just because this happened, the next time it should be the same or opposite, or that this happened so many times in a row, next time it should be different.

 

[Thirty One]

Couldn't agree more. Imagine if we had signed Staal to a 7 year contract? If we had signed Kreider to a 7 year contract? If we had locked up Hayes long-term?

Now do Petr Prucha, Michael Del Zotto and Oscar Lindberg.

 

[bobbop]

Huh?
Thats far from what I'm writing (or trying to write). Will try to explain it better. We should avoid the bridge contract for the young players we have identified as our core. Sign them long time after ELC aslong as they have solid base of performace. The cost will be higher the first few years, but with the rising cap the cap % of their contracts will gradualy be lower. In year 5 we can have the cap space to add another top 6 player. Earlier we never had the cap to sign long term after ELC, so we ended up with bridges and the "bad" contact for Stepan. Also dont spend a single assets on rentals or vets util we are sure we are ready to compete. Bruins are that now, so I understand they do it. For us? Not for several years. UFa signing? Just 1 or 2 year contracts to add some competitions fill temp voids.

Bridge contracts can be a blessing and a curse. In many cases, they motivate a player to improve. Case in point — Ryan Callahan. They protect the team. Yes, a long term commitment makes sense for certain core players but those contracts also can have a big downside. Any buyers remorse on Brady Skeji right now?

It’s an art, not a science.

 

[bobbop]

Hockey wisdom from my old friend the late Jack Reilly, former GM of the Penguins...By the time a forward is 21 years old, you pretty much know what you have. Defenseman? Who the f*** knows.

As true today as it was when he first told me that.

 

[duhmetreE]

I still hold Ruff as the major problem.

Skjei looked good 2017, as did the rest of the dcorps. Mac looks better in Tampa. Skjei looks good at the Worlds...

 

[SA16]

Hockey wisdom from my old friend the late Jack Reilly, former GM of the Penguins...By the time a forward is 21 years old, you pretty much know what you have. Defenseman? Who the **** knows.

As true today as it was when he first told me that.

Then why every draft a defenseman early if you have no idea what they will become

 

[Mac n Gs]

No it isn't and that's not what I was saying. Projecting past odds onto future players is essentially a form of gambler's fallacy.

Thank you. I tried showing this with the 9th overall pick last week, and even if you just expand it to the 8th and 10th picks, 9th grades out better in the long-term. Would you have me believe that teams would rather have the 9th pick than 8th? Absolutely not.

There’s too much variance between each pick to think that the previously chosen players at those slots are what truly determines that picks value. The pick is constantly changing between different organizations- and thus, different scouts, - available talent pools, team needs, and the list goes on and on.

 

[NYR Viper]

Then why every draft a defenseman early if you have no idea what they will become

There are teams that subscribe to tat line of thinking

 

[bobbop]

Then why every draft a defenseman early if you have no idea what they will become

This line of thinking is very evident in how teams typically prioritize forwards at the draft. They (think they) know what they are getting

 

[Fugazy]

Continue here: Speculation: - Roster Building Thread: Part XLIII