Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLII

[apoptygma]

So now we are using 1(!) post-season to make an argument. Great. Why don't we sign a 35-year old journeyman to be in net and get rid of Shestyorkin and Georgiev, since McElhinney got Carolina there so others can do as well.

When looking at the current teams in the conference finals, it clearly means we should trade away our 1st round picks for immediate help because Boston, San Jose and St Louis did that. It's clearly the key to success.

Or is that different?

Huh?
Thats far from what I'm writing (or trying to write). Will try to explain it better. We should avoid the bridge contract for the young players we have identified as our core. Sign them long time after ELC aslong as they have solid base of performace. The cost will be higher the first few years, but with the rising cap the cap % of their contracts will gradualy be lower. In year 5 we can have the cap space to add another top 6 player. Earlier we never had the cap to sign long term after ELC, so we ended up with bridges and the "bad" contact for Stepan. Also dont spend a single assets on rentals or vets util we are sure we are ready to compete. Bruins are that now, so I understand they do it. For us? Not for several years. UFa signing? Just 1 or 2 year contracts to add some competitions fill temp voids.

 

[ElLeetch]

8 million is ~10% of the cap at the moment. Players currently in the conference finals who signed a contract at a 10% cap hit or higher upon signing:

David Krejci (BOS)
Patrice Bergeron (BOS)
Vladimir Tarasenko (STL)
Alex Pietrangelo (STL)
Jordan Staal (CARL)
Brent Burns (SJS)
Erik Karlsson (SJS)
Logan Couture (SJS)*

Flawed logic to say we shouldn't sign UFAs based on this article.

as a point to consider, all of those players were *re*signed by their existing team. None of them were ever on the market.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Huh?
Thats far from what I'm writing (or trying to write). Will try to explain it better. We should avoid the bridge contract for the young players we have identified as our core. Sign them long time after ELC aslong as they have solid base of performace. The cost will be higher the first few years, but with the rising cap the cap % of their contracts will gradualy be lower. In year 5 we can have the cap space to add another top 6 player. Earlier we never had the cap to sign long term after ELC, so we ended up with bridges and the "bad" contact for Stepan. Also dont spend a single assets on rentals or vets util we are sure we are ready to compete. Bruins are that now, so I understand they do it. For us? Not for several years. UFa signing? Just 1 or 2 year contracts to add some competitions fill temp voids.

My point was that looking at the 4 teams in the conference finals this year is a horrible way to justify signing or not signing free agents. It's never that simple.

I agree with the fact that the abundance of bridge deals ruined our cap situation but the examples used to make a case just don't make sense to me.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

as a point to consider, all of those players were *re*signed by their existing team. None of them were ever on the market.

"Being on the market" was never part of the story though

 

[East Coast Bias]

https://www.tsn.ca/video/final-four-nhl-teams-don-t-have-a-player-making-more-than-8-million~1682400

But quick, sign UFAs. That's how you build a winner.

Now do the one about how the team favored to win the cup, up 3-0, has a roster where the highest draft pick was 14th overall.

Not a fan of these fun facts now are we?

 

[Inferno]

He has been impressive, didn't play much against the Finns. Skjei was double shifted. The US needed a win in that game, they mostly rolled 5 Ds.

If there is anyone I am unimpressed with its Quinton Hughes. He accomplish very little on the ice. Skates pretty with the puck, and accomplish nothing.

Literally every time I watch him this is what I see

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Fans say come to play with Dadonov, and Panarin says that Florida has no fans in the stands

Sounds like they are a package deal. Islanders?

 

[SA16]

One thing I've noticed is all four teams have one player who has been considered to be vastly underperforming his cap hit:

Carolina - Scott Darling 4.15M can't even make the team
Boston - Backes 6M been on the 4th line a lot this year
Sharks - Jones 5.75M been good recently but just a week or two ago was considered the Sharks likely demise
Blues - Allen 4.35M to sit on the bench and watch

It seems like a bad contract might be what you really need to win. We should keep Staal.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Now do the one about how the team favored to win the cup, up 3-0, has a roster where the highest draft pick was 14th overall.

Not a fan of these fun facts now are we?

Yeah man, got us good. We should probably trade Kakko for the 14th pick right? God forbid we have a player like that on our team on an ELC at 18 years old for once.

 

[SA16]

Do we even want Kakko? There's a good chance he will require more than 8M on his 2nd contract (3rd for sure if things go well). That's not how to build a team.

 

[East Coast Bias]

One thing I've noticed is all four teams have one player who has been considered to be vastly underperforming his cap hit:

Carolina - Scott Darling 4.15M can't even make the team
Boston - Backes 6M been on the 4th line a lot this year
Sharks - Jones 5.75M been good recently but just a week or two ago was considered the Sharks likely demise
Blues - Allen 4.35M to sit on the bench and watch

It seems like a bad contract might be what you really need to win. We should keep Staal.

Noticed a similar trend with old guys. All 4 teams left have a guy that's top 6 in active NHL games played. In fact I'd wager the teams with guys with the most games played are favorites to meet in the cup

2) Thornton (SJ)
4) Chara (BOS)
5) Williams (CAR)
6) Bouwmeester (STL)

We are far too young. Going to be awhile till we're seasoned enough.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Noticed a similar trend with old guys. All 4 teams left have a guy that's top 6 in active NHL games played. In fact I'd wager the teams with guys with the most games played are favorites to meet in the cup

2) Thornton (SJ)
4) Chara (BOS)
5) Williams (CAR)
6) Bouwmeester (STL)

We are far too young. Going to be awhile till we're seasoned enough.

Yeah that's usually what happens during a rebuild.

 

[Inferno]

Do we even want Kakko? There's a good chance he will require more than 8M on his 2nd contract (3rd for sure if things go well). That's not how to build a team.

Yeah...but you get the first set of contracts in...you also find out how he fits into the team and culture before paying him, you are resigning him instead of bidding against everyone which means a naturally depressed contract.

I get the sarcasm here but it’s annoying how people obfuscate points that are very valid behind sarcasm and eye rolling.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Yeah...but you get the first set of contracts in...you also find out how he fits into the team and culture before paying him, you are resigning him instead of bidding against everyone which means a naturally depressed contract.

I get the sarcasm here but it’s annoying how people obfuscate points that are very valid behind sarcasm and eye rolling.

Very well said here.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Yeah that's usually what happens during a rebuild.

Missing the joke?

 

[Inferno]

Now do the one about how the team favored to win the cup, up 3-0, has a roster where the highest draft pick was 14th overall.

Not a fan of these fun facts now are we?

favored by who?

Sharks are still my pick.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Wish list tradables: Smith, Shatty, Vesey

More likely: Pionk, Names

 

[East Coast Bias]

favored by who?

Sharks are still my pick.

Vegas? Bookies?

They're up 3-0 in a CF. SJ is 1-1. I'd love SJ to win but they gotta get there first.

 

[apoptygma]

My point was that looking at the 4 teams in the conference finals this year is a horrible way to justify signing or not signing free agents. It's never that simple.

I agree with the fact that the abundance of bridge deals ruined our cap situation but the examples used to make a case just don't make sense to me.

Yeah, might not have been he best example. NYR is in a pretty uniqe situation. We will have tons of cap space when our good prospect are done with their ELC's.
Lets say Chytil have a 38 and a 43 point season the 2 last years of his ELC with no red flags regarding injuries etc. A team pressed against the cap would possible
sign him to a 2 or 3 year bridge deal as they do not have the space for anything else. NYR can add a little more cap in the near future to reap a much better cap after year 2 or 3. A kindos Pastrnak light contract. If we can do that with 5-6 top 9 forwards and top 4 dmen it really gives a much more room to go far a high end UFA,or keep a stacked team together for multiple runs.

Looking at the last core all of Staal, Dubinsky, Callahan, Girardi, Hagelin and Kreider could have had their contracts structured better, but the NYR never had the option to do it at the time because they where so tight against the cap.

 

[Ola]

One thing I've noticed is all four teams have one player who has been considered to be vastly underperforming his cap hit:

Carolina - Scott Darling 4.15M can't even make the team
Boston - Backes 6M been on the 4th line a lot this year
Sharks - Jones 5.75M been good recently but just a week or two ago was considered the Sharks likely demise
Blues - Allen 4.35M to sit on the bench and watch

It seems like a bad contract might be what you really need to win. We should keep Staal.

For sure, one thing that is common for all Cup winners is having bad contracts. It’s the cost of doing business. Doesn’t necessarily mean that you should go out and hunt bad contracts, but you can’t be too afraid of them either.

 

[TheBPA]

Yeah...but you get the first set of contracts in...you also find out how he fits into the team and culture before paying him, you are resigning him instead of bidding against everyone which means a naturally depressed contract.

I get the sarcasm here but it’s annoying how people obfuscate points that are very valid behind sarcasm and eye rolling.

Well the condescension from the other side is what tends to lead us down this road. Saying things like signing guys like Panarin is the reason why the Rangers have 1 cup in 80 years (and ignoring that unrestricted free agency didn't begin until 1995, among a whole host of other factors) doesn't help the conversation...at all.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Since we’re really stirring shit this morning-
For the season:
Carolina: 2nd in CF% and 1st in xGF%
San Jose: 1st in CF% and 2nd in xGF%
St. Louis: 10th in CF% and 5th in xGF%
Boston: 6th in CF% and 9th in xGF%

To factor in the Blues hitting their stride under Berube. Since Jan 1, 2019:
Carolina: 6th in CF% and 5th in xGF%
San Jose: 4th in CF% and 6th in xGF%
St. Louis: 7th in CF% and 1st in xGF%
Boston: 5th in CF% and 7th in xGF%

 

[apoptygma]

That isn't the moral of the story. The moral is to do that IF they are worth it. Were Girardi, Staal, Hank and Step part of the core? Yes. Who was worth their contract of that group? Hank and that's it and there are many on here that would say not even him.

Burns can be the highest paid guy left... he's worth it. But had we given contracts to Dubi, Cally and McD... JUST because they were core members we'd more ****ed than we are right now.

Dubi had 2 x 40+ points seasons as a young budding forward. No red flags etc. NYR had no cap at that time, so signed him to a 2 x 1,85 million bride contract. After that bridge he signed a 4 x 4,2 mill contract coming off a 54 point season as NYR point leader. Then he was UFA and signed a 6 x 5,85 million contract. Could he signed a 7 x 3,7 million contract instead of the bridge when he was 23?

The biggest problem with the Staal and Girardi contracts was that they was to old when they signed their big contracts. The goal should be long contracts trough a players prime, and have them end at the 29-32 age. Staal was a top 4 dman when his ELC ran out. He signed a 5 year long contract followed by a 6 year old contract (the albatross we have now). Had he signed a 8 year deal after his ELC instead, we would have been done with him last summer. We would have gotten all of the good years, and less of the bad years, and due to the cap rising his contract would be less % of the cap at the end when he had his bad years. Another plus is the cheaper buyout of players under 25 if something goes really wrong.

Zib signed a 5 x 5,35 deal at age 24. How much more expensive would he have been at a 7 year deal to take him to 31? The next deal he signs will be at age 29. That deal will be massive in cap hit, and long in term. The tail end of that contract could be really nasty.

There is always a risk with long contracts, but the only young Ranger I can remember from 2011 to today that turned out "bad" after being a core piece for several seasons before his ELC ended is Del Zotto.
But even a bad Del Zotto got a 2 year deal from Flyers at almost double the bridge deal he signed with NYR after his ELC. Young players that are a bit overpaid still holds some value like Strome did for Edmonton.

 

[wafflepadsave]

Come on now the guy still put up nice stars he’s a weapon and a big reason where they are

I wouldn’t trade for him.

 

[Ola]

Huh?
Thats far from what I'm writing (or trying to write). Will try to explain it better. We should avoid the bridge contract for the young players we have identified as our core. Sign them long time after ELC aslong as they have solid base of performace. The cost will be higher the first few years, but with the rising cap the cap % of their contracts will gradualy be lower. In year 5 we can have the cap space to add another top 6 player. Earlier we never had the cap to sign long term after ELC, so we ended up with bridges and the "bad" contact for Stepan. Also dont spend a single assets on rentals or vets util we are sure we are ready to compete. Bruins are that now, so I understand they do it. For us? Not for several years. UFa signing? Just 1 or 2 year contracts to add some competitions fill temp voids.

But does Gorton have the eye for talent to make these calls?