Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLII

[Beacon]

that same group just uses the other group’s factors about timing/dollar-term as part of their excuse, but the reality is its all about tanking.

Refusing to throw money at UFAs is not the same as purposely tanking. The idea is to lift up from the basement based on young, long term talent, not by throwing crazy money at UFAs who will almost certainly not be worth it in 3-4 years, and may not be worth it in year 1.

At best, UFAs create short term success, which is ok if you're contending right now, but the worst if all you get is a lower draft pick without a playoff run.

Rebuilding the right way by drafting and trading for prospects creates long term success and all the kids reach their prime together allowing them to actually win in the playoffs and hopefully the Cup.

 

[Lion Hound]

They were struggling to sell out this season actually

Still not an issue for NYR. Forbes has them at #1.

 

[mas0764]

Understand this please: the difference of a few picks is massive. A #9 overall pick has literally a 50% chance of being a 4th liner or a total bust. A 4th overall pick, has a tiny chance of that. A 1st overall is probably, very likely an All Star several/many times over.

You sign Panarin, and statistically you're most likely to walk away with Malhotra and McIlrath in 2020 and 2021. You trade Kreider and sign nobody big, and you have something like a 60-70% shot of getting another Kakko in 2020 or 2021, plus another prospect superior to Kravtsov.

Yes, life has no guarantees. You can draft Leetch at #9 and Brendl at #4, but the odds of success on the draft day are MASSIVELY different and in favor of #4.

Panarin+Kreider will be that difference between a 2-5OA pick that has a great chance to be a first liner or at least top-6 vs a 10-12OA that has greater than 50% odds of being a bust.

None of these “odds” are anything but made up on the spot by your delusions. We just drafted Kravtov at 9, but Lias Andersson at 7.

Obviously everyone sees the value of drafting higher in general. We get it. But it’s a balancing act. You strike while the iron is hot, you get Panarin now cause there is no similar talent likely to be available in the next 2-3 years who so strongly wants to come here. Then you ship out Kreider to minimize the improvement. You probably end up somewhere in the 6th-8th worst slot again, which as we just saw, gives you a pretty decent shot of moving up in the draft.

If you just want to tear everything down, there’s a risk to that too. We don’t want to end up the Oilers.

 

[mas0764]

The objective is not to buy a Panarin jersey, the objective is to win the Cup. If the only thing Panarin achieves is to get us a much worse prospect in the draft, we're just moving away from the real target.

No, that’s not the only thing it gets us. It might get us that or it might not get us that. We could be the Blackhawks and move up from 12.

It also gets us a 70-80 point player two years from now when we are ready to roll.... in Panarin himself.

 

[mas0764]

That's exactly my point. The team would get better, but still fail to go anywhere. Instead of getting 2 top prospects in 2020 and 2021 in the top-5 or so, we get 2 mediocre guys around #12-14.

Panarin literally puts us in the worst possible spot: we neither get a deep playoff run nor a star prospect.

Your point would be more salient if the worst teams always picked at the top. The problem is, with or without Panarin we probably aren’t the worst team in the league, but instead somewhere between 4-8. Adding Panarin but subtracting Kreider, for example, might move us up from between 6-10 this year instead.

Well, the draft odds for those slots aren’t that drastically different. I’d say getting a nice 80 point winger is worth the trade off in odds.

If you don’t agree, that’s fine, but your silly rhetorical games are nonsense.

 

[Ola]

Arizona was very interested in Shattenkirk in the the summer/fall of 2016. Shattenkirk didn’t want to sign an extension with the Coyotes. Would they be interested in Shattenkirk again? They would get him at a cheaper price.

Edmonton was interested in Shattenkirk. He isn’t going there. He has a 10 team trade list. Edmonton is definitely on it. Hall for Shattenkirk. He wouldn’t sign an extension with Edmonton.

TB was interested. He rejected a contract extension from TB. 6 years and $42M. No state income tax. Shattenkirk should have signed that contract. Tyler Johnson for Shattenkirk. TB has too many bad long term contracts.

Would Yzerman want him in Detroit? He tried to acquire him in TB.

SJ was interested many years ago. Shattenkirk and Oshie to SJ for a 1st round pick(Timo Meier) and a roster player. Pavelski? They have Burns and Karlsson. They want to keep Karlsson.

Las Vegas tried to get Karlsson. Would they be interested in Shattenkirk? McPhee has many long term contracts on his books too.

Great summary.

From a financial POV, going to EDM would be best for him. He got another contract coming up, playing PP with McD would help. But he would have to live there for 2 years. Money isn’t everything.

What is the LTIR situation in Detroit? They already had a lot of LTIR. Would it help them to get rid of Green? We could take all their LTIR contracts, Green, Franzen and Z. It’s just 2, 1 and 1 year left.

 

[Ola]

I actually think it could make some sense for Detroit to add Shatty. They only have DeKayser signed past next season.

 

[bobbop]

Arizona was very interested in Shattenkirk in the the summer/fall of 2016. Shattenkirk didn’t want to sign an extension with the Coyotes. Would they be interested in Shattenkirk again? They would get him at a cheaper price.

Edmonton was interested in Shattenkirk. He isn’t going there. He has a 10 team trade list. Edmonton is definitely on it. Hall for Shattenkirk. He wouldn’t sign an extension with Edmonton.

TB was interested. He rejected a contract extension from TB. 6 years and $42M. No state income tax. Shattenkirk should have signed that contract. Tyler Johnson for Shattenkirk. TB has too many bad long term contracts.

Would Yzerman want him in Detroit? He tried to acquire him in TB.

SJ was interested many years ago. Shattenkirk and Oshie to SJ for a 1st round pick(Timo Meier) and a roster player. Pavelski? They have Burns and Karlsson. They want to keep Karlsson.

Las Vegas tried to get Karlsson. Would they be interested in Shattenkirk? McPhee has many long term contracts on his books too.

Every team on this list would have interest in Shattenkirk if he played better this year. You are trying hard to move damaged goods.

The return for Shattenkirk, if a buyer exists, is other bad contracts.

Arizona is already old on defense and needs to dump payroll. Scratch them.

 

[bobbop]

Typical Dark Ages reasoning: "but but but ticket sales!" As if MSG will ever have a hard time selling tickets.

Panarin is just the next in the line of Gretzky, Fleury, Esposito, etc., all of whom had better careers than Panarin, and could be paid without worrying about then-nonexistent salary cap.

If rebuilding by signing/trading for expensive vets didn't work our without a salary cap, how can it work with the cap?

Paid attendance was down over 500 per game this year (after dropping over 200 per game last year) and the can count — the actual number of people attending — was down over 800 per game.

Don’t think for a minute that isn’t a concern.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Still not an issue for NYR. Forbes has them at #1.

The quote read "As if MSG will ever have a hard time selling tickets."

Just because it's not an issue financially, doesns't mean they don't have a hard time selling tickets. MSG should be sold out each game, yet it wasn't these past 2 seasons

 

[Vitto79]

Two of the Rangers players are in their prime (Zbad & Kreider). And none of Chytil, Howden, and Andersson are of an age where anyone can tell anything about them concretely

The plan this year should be play Chytil , Howden , Andersson at C behind Zib them see at years end how it worked out

Strome can fill in and even Nieves on the 4th line

They are gonna beca lottery team again so embrace playing the kids

 

[Vitto79]

I actually think it could make some sense for Detroit to add Shatty. They only have DeKayser signed past next season.

They are kinda screwed in the cap still . Green has a no trade

I think they are like NYR, play kids and wait for contracts to expire

 

[eco's bones]

In both cases, either trading Zibanejad or signing Panarin, you're doing artificial things.

The idea that Gorton has followed so far is to get young assets with long term potential for those without a long term future here. Zibanejad is a young player on a great contract. He's part of the future. He can lead our youth for another decade, and when he does require a UFA contract, the team will hopefully be contending, so the best (early) years of his UFA contract won't be wasted on a rebuilding team.

Panarin and Kreider will be on UFA deals and most likely will live up to their money (if ever) early on when the only thing it will achieve is to drop us from #2-5 to #10-14.

Then, when Kakko, Chytil, Kravtsov, K'Andre, etc enter their prime 4-5+ years from now, the contracts of Panarin and Kreider will be anchors preventing us from signing young(er) UFAs at that point or preventing us from re-signing our own guys.

You don't throw money at star UFAs when the most talented guys on your team are 18-20.

Zibanejad will be 26 this year. By the time Kakko or Chytil hit their potential he'll be 30. So he's not really a young player anymore. But that wasn't my argument. My argument is if you're tanking and deliberately trying to lose games (so you can get that magical draft pick) Mika and Quinn are two major roadblocks that are standing in the way. You should want to get rid of Quinn for a completely shit coach who won't do much more than throw his hands up in the air and say 'it's not my fault' and you shouldn't want anyone over say the age of 25 being too good of a player. I mean if we are speaking directly that's pretty much what you're asking for isn't it? That we put a shit product out on the ice and have shit coaching and leadership too? Just come out and say it then. That's how you would build a Stanley Cup contender.

 

[bobbop]

The reason attendance is a much bigger concern for the Rangers than the Knicks is that the NBA is a primarily national revenue model while the NHL is a local revenue model. Attendance and TV ratings are very important to NHL teams.

 

[Beacon]

None of these “odds” are anything but made up on the spot by your delusions.

They are based on a study by Sports llustrated. If you run through players drafted by position (you can sort it on HockeyDB), you will see it is accurate.

Maybe I missed something, but I am pretty sure I'm the only person who goes back to check how picks perform by position, by stats, by THN rankings, etc. Which explains why my conclusions wind up less optimistic than the know-nothing crowd that reads hyped up scouting reports and declares every draft that the first 12-15 players are future first liners, likely to start in the top-6 as teenagers.

 

[bobbop]

Refusing to throw money at UFAs is not the same as purposely tanking. The idea is to lift up from the basement based on young, long term talent, not by throwing crazy money at UFAs who will almost certainly not be worth it in 3-4 years, and may not be worth it in year 1.

At best, UFAs create short term success, which is ok if you're contending right now, but the worst if all you get is a lower draft pick without a playoff run.

Rebuilding the right way by drafting and trading for prospects creates long term success and all the kids reach their prime together allowing them to actually win in the playoffs and hopefully the Cup.

No one tries to rebuild the wrong way. Some are better at it than others and some have more assets available. $ and the lure of New York City are two assets few teams can match.

Gorton and Sather made it very clear last year they are not planning on a long rebuild. They are not following your blueprint. Nor should they.

 

[Beacon]

My argument is if you're tanking and deliberately trying to lose games

I am not calling for tanking. I'm calling for us to climb up with cost controlled youth, not overpaid UFAs. How many times do we need to fail with expensive vets before we try just once in the franchise history another way?

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I am not calling for tanking. I'm calling for us to climb up with cost controlled youth, not overpaid UFAs. How many times do we need to fail with expensive vets before we try just once in the franchise history another way?

We are already doing it another way. Unless I have missed the previous rebuilds where we traded players at the deadline for several years and acquired high draft picks. And no, what the Rangers tried to do in the early 2000s is not the same

 

[Calad]

Neither of those did what I'm suggesting. They collapsed into the last place. The Rangers have a controlled rebuild. The Rangers ship away vets as kids get ready, and acquire kids on top of their own picks vs the Oilers who lost everything for nothing and tried to rebuild with 1 OA picks, plugging kids where they don't yet belong.

Comparing organized rebuilding to a collapse is like comparing quietly walk ins down the stairs with falling out the window: you wind up at the bottom in both cases, but the process leaves one destroyed, but not the other.

What the hell does "collapsed into last place" mean? How is selling off your vets and trying to ice the worst team possible not what either of these teams did? Do you not remember how miserably awful either of those teams were? Dude, your avatar is a tank and its headline is "embrace the tank". You aren't fooling anyone with what you expect out of this team, enough with the mental gymnastics and flawed assumptions to fit your narrative.

 

[pld459666]

As much as I want a top 5 picks in 2020, I'd prefer that the team play well enough to be 12th.

 

[RGY]

We are already doing it another way. Unless I have missed the previous rebuilds where we traded players at the deadline for several years and acquired high draft picks. And no, what the Rangers tried to do in the early 2000s is not the same

THANK YOU. Thank you AK. I am glad you said it.

Sick and tired of the BS that we need to try something different than what we have done in the past as if nothing has happened these past 2-3 years, which started with the Brassard trade.

Comparing to what we did in the early 2000’s, because thats only period you could possibly be referring to, is the clearest definition of apples and oranges. Its nowhere near the same. If we were operating under that mentality, we wouldve held onto everyone. Held onto Stepan and McDonagh until they completely fell off AND then tried to trade them for minimal returns. Who is the Val Kamensky that we have signed? The Bobby Holik? Who? This is a cap era and for the most part management made reasonable/logical moves at the time they were made. Gaborik. Richards. While they cost a pretty penny, they were moves that helped the team get to the ECF and the SCF. We didnt win. Oh well. Thats part of the risk. But if you expect a cup with every free agent signing then youre just completely delusional. Its not so black and white. By that logic then no team should ever sign anyone. But thats just not the case. Teams add if they have the assets.

Signing Panarin, a player who is gona be 28 years old is not a move that is symbolic of the mistakes made in the past.

 

[kovazub94]

Friends don’t let friends go full Bern.

Good luck with the hangover.

Let’s revisit this in the morning.

Go home, you’re drunk

Don’t listen to them @BBKers , I liked it.... am drunk reading it too.

 

[Avery16]

Don’t listen to them @BBKers , I liked it.... am drunk reading it too.

In other words, you’re speaking his language.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Does Panarin have a cheaper brother?

 

[Avery16]

THANK YOU. Thank you AK. I am glad you said it.

Sick and tired of the BS that we need to try something different than what we have done in the past as if nothing has happened these past 2-3 years, which started with the Brassard trade.

Comparing to what we did in the early 2000’s, because thats only period you could possibly be referring to, is the clearest definition of apples and oranges. Its nowhere near the same. If we were operating under that mentality, we wouldve held onto everyone. Held onto Stepan and McDonagh until they completely fell off AND then tried to trade them for minimal returns. Who is the Val Kamensky that we have signed? The Bobby Holik? Who? This is a cap era and for the most part management made reasonable/logical moves at the time they were made. Gaborik. Richards. While they cost a pretty penny, they were moves that helped the team get to the ECF and the SCF. We didnt win. Oh well. Thats part of the risk. But if you expect a cup with every free agent signing then youre just completely delusional. Its not so black and white. By that logic then no team should ever sign anyone. But thats just not the case. Teams add if they have the assets.

Signing Panarin, a player who is gona be 28 years old is not a move that is symbolic of the mistakes made in the past.

At least I’ll have seven years to fine-tune all my scorching hot told-you-so posts about 35 year old Panarin and our skeleton supporting crew, and no Cup in 32 years.