Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLII

[Lays]

Gonna bring back the McAvoy option, remember he declined a long term deal from Boston 3 months ago. RFA this summer and is from NY. Also gonna bring up his tweet again, where before he was drafted by Boston he tweeted about how much he hated them. Could be interesting to check in on and see how much he costs

 

[Ghost of jas]

Not a lot.

My guess is the biggest value Andresson has is to the Rangers.

Andersson still has value. He had a very good D+1 year, and has reached the NHL. The issue with Andersson, and likely a lot of the young players the Rangers have and will continue to acquire are how do they force themselves into the final puzzle? Some of these players are going to get moved because Gorton has acquired so much young talent and there’s redundancy. I think that’s a good thing. It doesn’t mean the Rangers are giving up on a player.

 

[Calad]

Gonna bring back the McAvoy option, remember he declined a long term deal from Boston 3 months ago. RFA this summer and is from NY. Also gonna bring up his tweet again, where before he was drafted by Boston he tweeted about how much he hated them. Could be interesting to check in on and see how much he costs

That quote was literally in the middle of the NYR vs BOS series in 2013, I believe after we went down 3-0. Don't hold your breath

 

[Thirty One]

but I want to know why Florida are eager to move one of their best wingers and an easy 55+ point player that just hit a career high in goals and points on a good contract? and, especially, why is Shattenkirk the piece of going the other way?

Because they want to clear cap space so they can take some runs in free agency, and Hoffman's value means he could get something back in a trade of significant value (i.e. not Shattenkirk). And if they load up this offseason, they might not be able to afford Hoffman's raise next summer. If I were them, I would try to make it work, as I think his shot is one of the big things that makes their PP work.

 

[Lays]

That quote was literally in the middle of the NYR vs BOS series in 2013, I believe after we went down 3-0. Don't hold your breath

I know it was. But even McAvoy declining Boston’s offer and being from NY makes him an interesting option. Didn’t say it was going to happen or it could, just said it was an interesting situation

 

[FIRE DRURY]

Gonna bring back the McAvoy option, remember he declined a long term deal from Boston 3 months ago. RFA this summer and is from NY. Also gonna bring up his tweet again, where before he was drafted by Boston he tweeted about how much he hated them. Could be interesting to check in on and see how much he costs

McAvoy is going to cost a ton. As weird as it sounds I think we have a good amount of PMD in our system and should be targeting more two way guys.

That's a big reason why I love Seider. Big kid that can hit, skate, shoot and pass.

 

[Raspewtin]

Because they want to clear cap space so they can take some runs in free agency, and Hoffman's value means he could get something back in a trade of significant value (i.e. not Shattenkirk). And if they load up this offseason, they might not be able to afford Hoffman's raise next summer. If I were them, I would try to make it work, as I think his shot is one of the big things that makes their PP work.

That makes sense but like you said where does someone like Shattenkirk fit in this scenario? Id agree that, he doesn't.

 

[Lays]

McAvoy is going to cost a ton. As weird as it sounds I think we have a good amount of PMD in our system and should be targeting more two way guys.

That's a big reason why I love Seider. Big kid that can hit, skate, shoot and pass.

I think McAvoy is more TWD than PMD, he’s really good defensively though he’s prone to mistakes (he’s still young though.) I love Seider as well, wouldn’t mind grabbing him with the Jets pick but I don’t know if he has enough upside to be a top pairing D which is what we need. I see him maybe as a better Tyler Myers

 

[Thirty One]

That makes sense but like you said where does someone like Shattenkirk fit in this scenario? Id agree that, he doesn't.

He absolutely does not, and deep down RangerBoy knows that. He quoted Brooks saying the offers the Rangers got for Shattenkirk involved bad contracts going back and he knows Hoffman has value because he has the Rangers capitalizing on that value almost immediately.

 

[Beacon]

So instead of Tavares at $11+NMC, we got Kakko for under a mil. Let that be a lesson for all.

The two aren’t necessarily mutually exclusive.

They absolutely are. The lower you finish, the better your odds in the lottery. There's no way we win Kakko if we had Tavares. He'd lift us high enough that we'd be hoping that Newhook would fall to us, but we still wouldn't have made the playoffs. And that's what will happen if we sign Panarin in the summer.

 

[Beacon]

Shattenkirk w 25% retained + Pionk + a pick for Subban at full. Does that tickle Poile’s pickle? Trade Kreider to Arizona/EDM for a 1st in 2020 and sign Panarin. Trade Vesey, Strome, Names.
Kakko - Zib - Buch
Panarin - Chytil - Kravtsov
Howden - Lias - Lemieux
Meskanen/Gettinger - Boo - Fast

Skjei - Subban
Hajek - Fox
Staal - Deangelo
Claesson - Smith

You clearly have no grasp of the difference between projecting where a player will be as a rookie vs in his prime; or ceiling vs floor vs likely scenario. Just pretend that everyone hits his ceiling as a teenager and that's how the rest of the moves make sense.

 

[DanielBrassard]

but I want to know why Florida are eager to move one of their best wingers and an easy 55+ point player that just hit a career high in goals and points on a good contract? and, especially, why is Shattenkirk the piece of going the other way?

I can't understand this either, I thought Shattenkirk was bad?

 

[Calad]

They absolutely are. The lower you finish, the better your odds in the lottery. There's no way we win Kakko if we had Tavares. He'd lift us high enough that we'd be hoping that Newhook would fall to us, but we still wouldn't have made the playoffs. And that's what will happen if we sign Panarin in the summer.

They absolutely are not. One player doesn't turn this club (or any) from a bottom 5 team to a playoff bubble team. Otherwise teams like Buffalo, Edmonton, and LA would have finished much higher than they did. The way the lottery is structured now it takes a damn good amount of luck to get a top 3 pick. It is structured in such a way that the old Pittsburgh/LA/Chicago/Edmonton model of "rebuilding" will not hand you the top talent of the draft. Hell look at Colorado, who had the best odds at a lottery pick twice in 3 years, slid to 4th both times. What does WPG (2016), Dallas & Philly(2017), Carolina (2018), Chicago and NYR(2019) all have in common? They did not finish bottom 5 in the league and still won a lottery pick. No one is arguing the lower you finish the better lottery odds you get, but the odds are so flat in a way to disincentivize the exact strategy you're hoping we utilize. The only way we end up a bottom 3 team is if we are historically terrible (which Gorton has repeatedly said he wants the team to be competitive so this won't happen), or if we have some terrible injury luck like the Devils and LA did this year.

Signing Panarin doesn't immediately solve the problem of losing important top6 depth in Hayes, Zucc, and presumably Kreider. He doesn't turn out defensive core into immediate gold from the shitshow it currently is. He doesn't suddenly make all of our depth players hardened veterans instead of 1st and 2nd year pros. There are ton's of problems with this roster as it is currently constructed, and Panarin would only be a piece of the puzzle, not the antidote.

 

[True Blue]

Ryan Strome will be the 2C until Alex Newhook is ready.

Honestly, not sure about that. I see Howden and Chytil getting those opportunities while Strome is a middle 6 rover. I have stated this, but I would love to see a third line of Lemieux-Andersson-Strome open as the team's third line next year.

Depending if the Rangers could move up to get someone like a Newhook, it will be interesting to see how things shake out. But that is a ways away. First we need to see who they net with their second pick.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

Honestly, not sure about that. I see Howden and Chytil getting those opportunities while Strome is a middle 6 rover. I have stated this, but I would love to see a third line of Lemieux-Andersson-Strome open as the team's third line next year.

Depending if the Rangers could move up to get someone like a Newhook, it will be interesting to see how things shake out. But that is a ways away. First we need to see who they net with their second pick.

Most roster talk is premature at this point.

 

[Beacon]

They absolutely are not. One player doesn't turn this club (or any) from a bottom 5 team to a playoff bubble team.

What's the point of signing a guy for $11 million if he won't significantly improve the team? And if he does improve the team significantly, does it not reduce the lottery odds?

 

[Edge]

What's the point of signing a guy for $11 million if he won't significantly improve the team? And if he does improve the team significantly, does it not reduce the lottery odds?

I do feel like the argument for Panarin sometimes trips over itself.

He's an elite talent worth $11 million per year until the year 2026. But he won't change the trajectory of this team next year.

He's talented enough that players like him don't ever come around, and yet he's the third guy in the last two years we've said that about with regards to potential free agency.

 

[Edge]

Signing Panarin doesn't immediately solve the problem of losing important top6 depth in Hayes, Zucc, and presumably Kreider. He doesn't turn out defensive core into immediate gold from the ****show it currently is. He doesn't suddenly make all of our depth players hardened veterans instead of 1st and 2nd year pros. There are ton's of problems with this roster as it is currently constructed, and Panarin would only be a piece of the puzzle, not the antidote.

So taking all that into consideration, what do you feel next year looks like?

 

[Tawnos]

I do feel like the argument for Panarin sometimes trips over itself.

He's an elite talent worth $11 million per year until the year 2026. But he won't change the trajectory of this team next year.

He's talented enough that players like him don't ever come around, and yet he's the third guy in the last two years we've said that about with regards to potential free agency.

Neither of those are the arguments include things I say in favor of Panarin, though the second could conceivably be a misinterpretation of one of my arguments.

 

[effen]

I do feel like the argument for Panarin sometimes trips over itself.

He's an elite talent worth $11 million per year until the year 2026. But he won't change the trajectory of this team next year.

He's talented enough that players like him don't ever come around, and yet he's the third guy in the last two years we've said that about with regards to potential free agency.

He is Schrodinger's Russian.

 

[SA16]

I do feel like the argument for Panarin sometimes trips over itself.

He's an elite talent worth $11 million per year until the year 2026. But he won't change the trajectory of this team next year.

He's talented enough that players like him don't ever come around, and yet he's the third guy in the last two years we've said that about with regards to potential free agency.

3rd player the last 2 years is a bit disingenuous. You could also say 3rd guy the last 8 years considering nobody else was on that at that age before Parise.

 

[Edge]

3rd player the last 2 years is a bit disingenuous. You could also say 3rd guy the last 8 years considering nobody else was on that at that age before Parise.

I've seen the "these players never come around" comment attributed to EK, Tavares and Panarin in the last 12 months.

Wasn't even thinking about Parise.

 

[SA16]

I've seen the "these players never come around" comment attributed to EK, Tavares and Panarin in the last 12 months.

Wasn't even thinking about Parise.

Yes my point using that timeline is not fair. You can say those are the only 3 players at that level the last 12 months. You can also say those are the only 3 players at that level the last 84 months. So why are we cutting out 72 months of data where nobody was as good as those 3? That just makes it look like it happens more than it does. Parise is an older CBA I wouldn't include him anyway. They are the only 3 under this CBA.

It's like when they post stats "Player X has 13 points his last 17 games." What does that really mean? It means he had a bunch of games without points prior to game 17 or they would have included it in the stat. It's misleading.

 

[Calad]

So taking all that into consideration, what do you feel next year looks like?

I don't think they will be any better next year. Squad is getting even younger, rookies could have trouble adjusting, Zibanejad could regress or get injured. We were generally pretty lucky with injuries (4th least man-games lost due to injury). A lot of things have to go right to change

What's the point of signing a guy for $11 million if he won't significantly improve the team? And if he does improve the team significantly, does it not reduce the lottery odds?

He will be a significant improvement to the team. He steps in and instantly becomes the most talented player on the team. However the team has taken a lot of steps back, or failed to improve, in other areas that he won't be enough to offset that this year. As the young players around him mature and hopefully improve, he would be an integral piece to the teams success. As I already stated, unless this team is complete dogshit or gets devastated by injuries the effect that 1 player has on the lottery odds will be a non factor.

 

[NYR Viper]

I've seen the "these players never come around" comment attributed to EK, Tavares and Panarin in the last 12 months.

Wasn't even thinking about Parise.

I'd remove Karlsson from that list.

I'd also say that while Tavares is a very god center, he hit UFA at age 28. Panarin is 26. Tavares was also coming off back to back seasons where he was below a PPG in 15-16 and 16-17 (17-18 he rebounded)

The part that intrigues me is:
1) His age
2) His playing style should age well (and we are only talking about a contract where he will be 26-32, not 35)
3) He would take considerable pressure off of the young players in this organization as they develop
4) He would provide a good role model to the younger guys like Kravtsov and Kaako
5) I REALLY don't think he will get $11m per season and I wouldn't offer that to him. $9.5m per season (same as Stone). If he wants more, then that's fine, he can go elsewhere.

Question for you, would you take Panarin @ $9.5m per season