What I posted on the jets board re: Trouba
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Not here to cause a stir or offer commentary on some of these trade proposals, just to offer some perspective on the state of the NYR cupboard in case any of you guys are interested.
When we traded McDonagh, we basically ended up with a late 1st (28th overall), late 2nd (~60th overall), Brett Howden (a recent late 1st who had a good d+1 season), Libor Hajek (a recent middle 2nd who had an okay d+1 season). Essentially two end of round 1sts (28-31 overall) and 2 late 2nds (45-60 overall). Namestnikov and Miller weren't a wash, Miller was definitely the more valuable piece there, so I would correspondingly likely drop the least valuable piece in the trade, the late 2nd. The other thing to remember is that McDonagh was not traded in the summer, he was traded at the deadline - so the team acquiring him got at least 2 playoff runs with him. In which case, think about what you would get for Trouba now and think about what you would get at the deadline. The sum of those two values for McDonagh ended up being 2 late 1sts and 1 middle 2nd. We would not have gotten as much if we traded him during the summer.
One could of course argue Trouba is more valuable because he's younger, but that's neither here nor there. Just offering some perspective on how McDonagh was valued at - you can take that and extrapolate Trouba how you wish from there.
Here are the rough values, player comparables & likelihood of being traded for the Rangers' cupboard.
Lias Andersson - Recent high 1st round pick (7th overall). Great d+1 season (> .5 ppg in the SHL at 18), disappointing d+2 season. Ceiling would be a poor man's Landeskog, maybe Callahan. I don't think the Rangers would be unwilling to move him if push came to shove.
Filip Chytil - Recent middle 1st round pick (21st overall). Stellar d+1 season (3/4 ppg in the AHL at 18) , okay d+2 season. Ceiling is 20-45 center, target would be 15-35 center. Very speedy & tall, might end up being a winger. Probably not off the table, but less likely to be moved than Andersson if push came to shove.
K'Andre Miller - Recent middle 1st round pick (22nd overall). Stellar d+1 season (led his college team by far in points as a dman, nearly PPG). The only piece in the Rangers cupboard who has a chance of being a #1 and thus really unlikely to be moved.
Nils Lundkvist - Recent late 1st round pick (28th overall). Really good d+1 season. Possession defenseman, great in the neutral zone. Comparable of Anton Stralman. Ceiling is a #2, likely to be a strong middle pairing dman. Not off the table in a trade.
Vitaly Kravtsov - Recent early 1st round pick (9th overall). Stellar d+1 season (highest percentage of points as a % of his teams offense for a teen in the KHL - better than Tarasenko, Kuznetsov, etc). Ceiling is a #1 playmaking winger (say in the 60-75 point range). Really unlikely to be moved.
Libor Hajek - Mid-2nd round pick. Okay d+1, d+2 seasons, really good in the AHL in his d+3 and shone in his NHL callup. Ceiling is a minute eating dman who does not carry much offense - a #2. Pretty good shot of being a strong middle pairing dman. Not off the table in a trade.
Neal Pionk - Puts up a ton of points on the PP, but not the greatest defender. Ceiling is a #4 defender who can put in 40 points, floor is Raphael Diaz. Likely to be moved, not enough space on our blueline for him.
Anthony DeAngelo - lots of talk on him, moved a lot. This year was make or break for him and he shone. By far most improved dman. Ceiling at this point is Keith Yandle/Shattenkirk with better defense. Pretty unlikely to be moved. Still has some attitude issues, but has worked through most of them.
Brett Howden - Late 1st round pick. Strong, speedy pivot with high hockey IQ and work ethic. Upper ceiling is a #2 centerman (55 points), likely tops out as a strong #3 centerman (40-45 points) who always gives it his all. My guess is the Rangers really like him and see a future alternate captain, but based on just output, probably not unmoveable.
In terms of established NHL players, Namestnikov, Strome, Vesey, Kreider & Shattenkirk are all likely on the block. The Rangers would retain on Kreider or Shattenkirk to increase their value more. I would expect they hope for a pick around 15-20 for Kreider with retention. Someone like Zibanejad who is by far our best player currently, is signed to a super cheap contract and is quite young is just not on the table for anyone.
If you take McDonagh's value at the deadline as 2 late 1sts and 1 middle 2nd, a comparable trade for Trouba would be along the lines of Dallas' 1st (28-30 overall assuming they make the WCF), Nils Lundkvist (recent late 1st who has done well), and then Tampa's 2nd. That's quite a haul and doesn't account for the fact that this is in the offseason and not the trade deadline (thus you have to subtract value). My guess is that the Rangers would want to include Neal Pionk in the trade given the too-many-bodies problem on our current blueline.
I think if the Rangers wanted to be aggressive (which they've shown they can be as with the Fox trade) and really, really like Trouba, they would be willing to pay. Dallas' 1st + Pionk + one of Hajek, Lundkvist, Andersson, Howden (the strong, but moveable prospects) is what you might see. Personally, I wouldn't do that because I don't think the timing is right, but I could see a situation where the Rangers might think it is because they think getting the #2 accelerates the rebuild.
We've sold off a lot of players recently so if there's one thing I think we've all learned, it's that established NHL players don't get a teams' #1, #2 or #3 prospects. They get their #4 or #5 and whatever pick is available. If getting someone like Kravstov or Miller is a deal breaker, then there's probably no deal to be made.
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If we are expecting ~#15 for Kreider, I think something like Dallas' 1st, Lundkvist + Pionk is what Trouba would command. I'm not sure I want to pay it.
