Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLI

[SA16]

Would the Penguins have not won the cup if they signed Phil kessel as a FA insead of trading for him or something? It’s not like they got savings on his contract he had one of the highest cap hits in the league and was 28 when they got him same as Panarin is now. The “let’s only look at FA and ignore trades when looking at bringing players in” is flawed.

Don’t you think if an equivalent player was A FA 4 years ago on July 1 the Penguins would rather have signed him to a similar contract as opposed to trading Kapanen, a 1st, and other stuff?

You CAN get bargain contracts in trades that you can’t in FA but do you really think the players on those deals are going to available and if so not for an absolute kings ransoms (like MacKinnon or JT Isles deal)

 

[bobbop]

You guys realize that signing a top UFA won’t be possible once Kakko and Kravtsov are off their ELCs, right? That’s the point of getting these 3-4 years out of a guy like Panarin while they’re all still cost controlled.

Also if the team clearly isn’t ready, Panarin allows you to trade Kreider for assets without completely tearing it all down and becoming Edmonton.

Smart stuff here

 

[I Eat Crow]

I have to agree with @Beacon here.

Panarin may be the right player at the wrong time. Kakko is going to be an excellent foundational piece for this team in the future. Stay. With. The. Plan. The Rangers aren't accelerating anything by signing Panarin. The defense is still a disaster. All Panarin does is make a 6-12th place finish more likely instead of a bottom 5 finish.

 

[hi]

Why would they be less likely to resign a guy that they traded for and helped them win a cup?

Because then they'd have a cup and their 1st round pick next year?

 

[SA16]

Because then they'd have a cup and their 1st round pick next year?

So a team that has been starved for secondary scoring is going to:

1. Trade for a player at the dead line
2. Watch him play really well and be a major reason they win
3. Let him go because they won a cup and go back to the exact same problem they had earlier in the year when they were a one line team?

I mean I personally wouldn’t resign him regardless from dallas point of view because of the condition but I see no way that they will see it that way.

 

[Avery16]

You realize if Boston wins again that literally half of the cups over the last decade right?

Lol if they win this year it’d have about as much to do with Chara as it would for us winning it in 2021 with Staal still on the team.

 

[Avery16]

Would the Penguins have not won the cup if they signed Phil kessel as a FA insead of trading for him or something? It’s not like they got savings on his contract he had one of the highest cap hits in the league and was 28 when they got him same as Panarin is now. The “let’s only look at FA and ignore trades when looking at bringing players in” is flawed.

Don’t you think if an equivalent player was A FA 4 years ago on July 1 the Penguins would rather have signed him to a similar contract as opposed to trading Kapanen, a 1st, and other stuff?

You CAN get bargain contracts in trades that you can’t in FA but do you really think the players on those deals are going to available and if so not for an absolute kings ransoms (like MacKinnon or JT Isles deal)

The penguins adding kessel couldn’t be more different than the rangers adding Panarin. If the rangers were at a comparable stage as those penguins were, then absolutely you sign Panarin.

 

[SA16]

The penguins adding kessel couldn’t be more different than the rangers adding Panarin. If the rangers were at a comparable stage as those penguins were, then absolutely you sign Panarin.

Has literally nothing to do with my post

 

[DutchShamrock]

You realize if Boston wins again that literally half of the cups over the last decade right?

Yeah, I mean if you want to use those convenient parameters. Take it to the cap era and that gets you Neidermeyer, who is arguable as the top ufa, added to a stacked contender. But that was added to the Getzlaf, Perry, Pronger core. So 5 cups in 14 years with apples to oranges comparisons. That's generous to the pro UFA crowd. The reality is 3 out of 30 won a cup recently after signing a top level free agent.

Kakko isn't a Ranger and Kratsov hasn't played a game. The success in the UFA scenario is always with the drafted core in place a few seasons before the free agent splash is made. Both sides are pointing to the same teams as a model but the pro ufa crowd is minimum 2 seasons early.

 

[DutchShamrock]

Are you talking as in signed over the summer and won the Cup the following year or what? Trade deadline UFA's?

I'm drawing a comparison to teams that signed a significant piece as a free agent and validated the move with a cup at least with in a few years. But summer signings is the focus.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Would the Penguins have not won the cup if they signed Phil kessel as a FA insead of trading for him or something? It’s not like they got savings on his contract he had one of the highest cap hits in the league and was 28 when they got him same as Panarin is now. The “let’s only look at FA and ignore trades when looking at bringing players in” is flawed.

Don’t you think if an equivalent player was A FA 4 years ago on July 1 the Penguins would rather have signed him to a similar contract as opposed to trading Kapanen, a 1st, and other stuff?

You CAN get bargain contracts in trades that you can’t in FA but do you really think the players on those deals are going to available and if so not for an absolute kings ransoms (like MacKinnon or JT Isles deal)

Pens cap hit for Kessel is 6.8 mill.

That is not one of the highest cap hits in the league, now or at the time.

 

[pld459666]

If Dallas wins the cup this year, are they less likely to re-sign Zucc?

I think they resign him either way

 

[Avery16]

Has literally nothing to do with my post

Then what was the point of your kessel penguins FA Cup comparison

 

[SA16]

Pens cap hit for Kessel is 6.8 mill.

That is not one of the highest cap hits in the league, now or at the time.

Ok I missed that but 1.2M really does not move the needle. Would have been better off this year if he had a cap hit of 8M actually lol so they couldn’t wasn’t the money on Jack Johnson.

That savings of 1.2M basically got them Eric Fehr to play L4 for 2M instead of some younger guy. Big deal. One year later Fehr was waived/healthy scratched/traded as a cap dump.

In any case 6.8 is not some mega value in 15-16 either it would be 23rd among forwards higher than Backstrom Hall Duchene Couture Pavelski and the same as Kopitar

 

[Fitzy]

A couple notes on the above arguments...

Kravtsov isn't a true blue chipper like Kakko, so assuming his second contract is going to be astronomical is, to me, misguided. He's a good prospect but certainly has the potential to bust, or become just an average player.

Panarin is really young, so unless your focus is on tanking next year, adding him at 27 isn't functionally different from adding a 29 year old UFA 2 seasons from now.

As noted, the defense is still shambolic and will continue to be so until we have a functional first pairing that can play heavy minutes. I don't see Skjei as an ideal top pairing player at this point, so that means we have to pull 2 (2!) high level defensemen out of a hat before we have a functional hockey team.

X-X
Skjei-Fox
Hajek/Lindgren-DeAngelo

Potentially in two years. Miller and Lundkvist are, in my view, long plays. I don't expect them in the pros for a while, and certainly not to their full potential at least for another 3-4 years.

 

[LORDE]

Panarin will have an albatross contract....sure. If you believe that, there’s nothing to discuss.

Panarin does less than nothing for us now.

We don't become a legit contender... we finish in the middle, barely making or missing the playoffs... giving us weaker draft position with which to remedy the C or defense positions.

We pay him 11/7 with a NTC... then when Miller is here and we have (hopefully) solved the defensive issues, we then resign Kakko and Kravtsov and Panarin is an 11M winger who is on the downswing.

Panarin is a tremendous talent.

So too is Bobby Orr...

and the next Wayne Gretzky who just got his 1st hockey stick this past xmas.

The similarities there being they're all the wrong time for THIS NYR team right now.

 

[haohmaru]

I'm drawing a comparison to teams that signed a significant piece as a free agent and validated the move with a cup at least with in a few years. But summer signings is the focus.

Rafalski & Ward

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

A couple notes on the above arguments...

Kravtsov isn't a true blue chipper like Kakko, so assuming his second contract is going to be astronomical is, to me, misguided. He's a good prospect but certainly has the potential to bust, or become just an average player.

If kids like Eeli Tolvanen, Quinn Hughes and Erik Brännström are considered blue-chip prospects, I do not see why Kravtsov isn't considered a blue chip prospect.

 

[TheBPA]

If kids like Eeli Tolvanen, Quinn Hughes and Erik Brännström are considered blue-chip prospects, I do not see why Kravtsov isn't considered a blue chip prospect.

There’s always a risk that he busts but he’s hands down a blue chip prospect at this point.

 

[haohmaru]

Panarin does less than nothing for us now.

We don't become a legit contender... we finish in the middle, barely making or missing the playoffs... giving us weaker draft position with which to remedy the C or defense positions.Th

We pay him 11/7 with a NTC... then when Miller is here and we have (hopefully) solved the defensive issues, we then resign Kakko and Kravtsov and Panarin is an 11M winger who is on the downswing.

Panarin is a tremendous talent.

So too is Bobby Orr...

and the next Wayne Gretzky who just got his 1st hockey stick this past xmas.

The similarities there being they're all the wrong time for THIS NYR team right now.

So, if there was a healthy 27 year old Bobby Orr available this summer then you wouldn't sign him? That's ridiculous.

Further, if this team is competing for a playoff spot the season after next, why is Panarin "on the downswing" at age 29? You can't look at NEXT year. You have to look at the year after that and after that. If Panarin is in years 2-3 of his contract why is he tailing off at age 29 & 30? The guy is 27. Not 32.

I view the Stepan trade as the beginning of the rebuild. You can argue that or not. 2020-21 will be entering the 4th year of that rebuild. If we're not in the hunt for a playoff spot in that season then our rebuild isn't going as well as Gorton would've hoped.

 

[TheBPA]

So, if there was a healthy 27 year old Bobby Orr available this summer then you wouldn't sign him? That's ridiculous.

Further, if this team is competing for a playoff spot the season after next, why is Panarin "on the downswing" at age 29? You can't look at NEXT year. You have to look at the year after that and after that. If Panarin is in years 2-3 of his contract why is he tailing off at age 29 & 30? The guy is 27. Not 32.

I view the Stepan trade as the beginning of the rebuild. You can argue that or not. 2020-21 will be entering the 4th year of that rebuild. If we're not in the hunt for a playoff spot in that season then our rebuild isn't going as well as Gorton would've hoped.

The “don’t sign panarin” crowd seems to mostly be hoping for at least 2 more top 5 picks. I just don’t see that happening even if they don’t sign panarin this summer.

 

[LORDE]

So, if there was a healthy 27 year old Bobby Orr available this summer then you wouldn't sign him? That's ridiculous.

Further, if this team is competing for a playoff spot the season after next, why is Panarin "on the downswing" at age 29? You can't look at NEXT year. You have to look at the year after that and after that. If Panarin is in years 2-3 of his contract why is he tailing off at age 29 & 30? The guy is 27. Not 32.

I view the Stepan trade as the beginning of the rebuild. You can argue that or not. 2020-21 will be entering the 4th year of that rebuild. If we're not in the hunt for a playoff spot in that season then our rebuild isn't going as well as Gorton would've hoped.

Actually if Panarin were a stud dman I'd be for signing him... that addresses a need.

We don't know if we need another wing. Hopefully not, but we don't know.

Whereas we def need a stud #1 & #2 dman

I don't care when the rebuild started, I clearly see what stage it is in.

BIG UFA signings are AT LEAST 2 years away

 

[GAGLine]

You guys realize that signing a top UFA won’t be possible once Kakko and Kravtsov are off their ELCs, right? That’s the point of getting these 3-4 years out of a guy like Panarin while they’re all still cost controlled.

Also if the team clearly isn’t ready, Panarin allows you to trade Kreider for assets without completely tearing it all down and becoming Edmonton.

This team isn't going to realistically compete for a cup for at least the next 2 years. So basically, we'd be signing Panarin for 1 - 2 years, at best.

If we can't afford a top UFA once Kakko and Kravtsov are off their ELC, then how are we affording Panarin, who will still be paid as a top UFA when they come off ELC? That's a bit ridiculous. We have no idea what sort of money either player will command 3 years from now. And if they are both going to be wingers in the NHL, and they are going to be making big bucks, then why would we spend big buck on yet another winger in Panarin?

We don't need Panarin to trade Kreider. There are lots of UFAs that can take his place. We don't need the best, most expensive option on the market. Bring in Spezza for a year. He's having a good playoffs, has lot of experience, and can fill a center spot. Or sign Boyle for a couple years. Or bring in Vanek or Brouwer, if we want a winger.

 

[Leetch3]

random thought on the 3 goalie situation and the idea of rotating shesterkin and georgiev between ny and hartford...once georgiev plays 17 games this season, which most likely happens in the first half of the season, he will require waivers to be sent down. so the 2nd half of the year, we are likely faced with a situation of needing to leave shesterkin in the AHL (if he agrees to stay the whole year there), carrying 3 goalies on the roster at times, or making a move. really doesn't give us much time to let things work themselves out

 

[SA16]

Then what was the point of your kessel penguins FA Cup comparison

It wasn't about the Rangers at all.

In general there is no difference in signing a top FA compared to trading for one if they both have large cap hits. Signing the top FA is actually better since it won't cost any assets. Yes, it would be better to make a trade like Dallas did for Seguin at his age however that is not exactly something that you can do easily. That would be like trading for Laine/Dubois right now. Or actually Dylan Strome too that is one one that could have been done (and still he went for a lot despite never doing anything yet).

The reason that more cup winners have key players acquired via trade than FA is simply that there are more good players available via trade. When you trade to bring in a player you have nearly the entire NHL player pool (to a point) available to consider. When you sign a FA you have a selected pool of players that are mostly lower tier and then the top players that for whatever reason ended up not re-signing with their team (Karlsson/Duchene coming from dysfunctional Ottawa, Panarin who just doesn't want to be in Columbus, Tavares coming from the Islanders with arena turmoil. I don't remember the situations with Parise/Suter).

Additionally the whole "Won a cup" argument to look at how a UFA/Trade worked out is bad as well because even the best team in the league is a significant underdog to actually win the cup. A team that is 25% to win the cup for 3 years in a row would still only have a 58% chance to actually win at least 1 cup in those 3 years.