ok, the latest bern blueprint
Per my usual, best hope for at least 1 if not multiple cups = EXTEND the window
this means deal vets for youth, few exceptions notwithstanding.
The out of nowhere Zib meltdown has complicated things with great negative forces. Even a premium payment to remove him must be acceptably profitable to a trade partner and that is not readily visible other than gutting nyr to an intolerable degree.
1. Rs-‘nucks
VAN has just over 6 in cap space. Understandably want to keep JTM; that said, while he is out, they are short. Also need D w/Hronek out. Rs need pivots and cap space. So here is the offer:
take prospect Sykora for the more available bottom 6 C Raty
take Robertson for injured expiring Forbort
take Jones for Juulsen
of these Forbort is highest paid 1.5, everybody else < 1 roughly cancels out
and we throw in Zib max retained reduced 8.5 to 4.25
ballpark cap dif is 3.75-ish hit to VAN
Further detail:
Raty [elc expiring -> rfa] > Sykora [3 yrs elc remaining] right now but ‘nucks can spare him.
LD Robertson has size etc but has not been properly developed; they kept not giving him a chance, yet resigned him this season, what does that say? But Forbort is expiring, older so it is a possibly useful body for an unavailable one.
I always liked Juulsen and give him full props for coming back after his early injury history. Jones is young, not big at 6'0 but fast, fluid skater and can play either side.
All in all a small +.
So why accommodate on Zib? Risk-reward. You are gambling that there appears to be no physical damage, the issue is he suddenly snakebit in an ongoing funk. Howev, if he was playing with his fellow Swede pal and not under the same pressure to not produce as 1C [that’s JTM when he returns], he will perform sufficiently in top 6. And again, we think there is no issue w/JTM but this is a useful stopgap while JT is out, possibly insurance if there is something we are unaware of. And worst case here for ‘nucks, they have to attach 1.5ish or so to move him to a cap floor club.
For Rs, we are looking at 4.5 structural cap recovery. Juulsen ok bottom pair. Raty fine to build with at position of need. Forbort, if he returns, is 3LD, depth after selling Lindgren
2. Rs - Sens
LaF + Fox + NYR 2025 1st, unprotected + Othmann + F prospect BMB (Bryce McConnell Barker) + Vesey
for
Sanderson +Batheson + Pinto + Kleven + Grieg +
6 assets for 5 [5 bodies for 5]. Too biz to add up, looks cap close.
Sens upgrade top 1RD, costs 1LD. LaF > Bath and huge marketing benefits to bringing in local 1OA. Sens are minus a first round pick, so adding Rs pick which looks good atm, is also huge. It does thin pivot but nice W add in Othmann. Overall value balances.
Rs get 1LD can juggle RD, add keepers Pinto + Kleven, with Grieg + Batheson useful in follow up trade.
3. NYR-LAK
While surrender of Byfield is a major concession, Kings win this deal, but it is still a fit for Rs.
W/LA in on discussions, Shesty extended 12.2 x 5, no NMC, limited ntc, which as an extension kicks in next season. Rs eat 2m per beginning this season and continuing.
Add dynamic W Batheson
Add former first rounder Grieg to strengthen mid six C
Rs get Byfield
Now there is too much on the plate for Kings to refuse. Obv Byfield is heir to Kopitar and now that has to have plan b alternate, but Ks still have good pivot depth and too many issues solved by this to decline.
The above 3 for Byfield
NOTE: with this trade now, Shesty’s value this season is not 12.2 - 2, but current 5.6 -2 = 3.6, so
That suppresses cap imbalance.
4. Rs - Ds
Smith + Lindgren + Berard
for
Dumoulin and Helleson + 2028 pick 3rd rounder upgrades to 2nd if Berard checks out
rationale: Ducks looking for F support, are good at pivot regardless of Zegras but he appears injured so a useful body couldn’t hurt. Smith is that.
Helleson has shown signs but is far enough down the depth chart they can let him go. Dumoulin would be a small wince but worth it.
Lindgren is a stopgap, if he holds up he offers depth makes moving Fowler easier
deal Trouba
So what does all this leave us?
Kreider - Byfield - Panarin [until we move him, not extending]
Pinto - Tro - Brodz
Cuylle - Chytil/Raty/Brodz - Kakko
Edstrom - Brodz -Rempe
Raty, Carrick = forward depth
Sanderson - Schneider
KAM - Kleven
Dumoulin - Mancini/Helleson/Juulsen
Forbort, if/when he plays again
usual suspects for LD depth: Scanlin/Harpur/Mackey/Ruhwedel
Rasmus Larsson and Hank Kempf may be close enuf for cup of coffee if available
Broberg on LTIR
after the above, possible buy now w/St. Louis for acceptable assets and add late in the yr
Garand reinforced Quick + Domingue