Roster Building Thread - Part XI (Off-season edition)

[Mac n Gs]

38 minutes.



38 minutes isn't insignificant through 3 rounds.

Do we need to do an entire career sample size? Because that one isn't good either.

Or how about Fox's almost hour away from Lindgren in this same run?

It is insignificant, and I’m sorry nothing will change that. I’d bet the career splits are also heavily driven by situational play as well considering it’s more likely that they’re separated when Fox is being deployed pushing for a goal.

It’s moot regardless. I’m fine upgrading on Lindgren. The bad analysis to push your narrative against him is where I have the issue. The issues with the defense aren’t completely player specific either, especially when the entire unit sans Fox either took steps back or stagnated this year.

 

[effen]

I do not want to re-sign Gus. Think he's fools gold.

Despite looking the part mostly and not having any glaring deficiencies, guy just doesn't play D very well. Lav likes him a lot and still had him stapled to 3rd pair for 90% of the season.

He's gonna want $ too, he hasn't really had a big contract in the league.

 

[NYR Viper]

Cant wait till we trade Lindgren, a decent middle pair defenseman who really shouldnt be on the top pair, only to then overpay a player 2M+ more than his contract and will be same player. All to get a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Then we will trade that pick for toughness at the deadline that we lost from losing him.

Rango logic.

I am going to use AFP for cap projections:

Lindgren
3 years @ $4.5m

Demelo
4 years @ $5.3m

Dillon
2 years @ $2.85m

Roy
5 years @ $5.8m

If we look at what these guys bring, they all actually out-hit and out-block Lindgren, something people clamor over for Ryan and they are all either better than, or just as good as him in terms of their actual play. Dillon specifically will cost ~$1.7m less on the cap and play a more physical but identical brand as Lindgren

 

[jay from jersey]

Ryan Lindgren away from Fox 5v5 in the playoffs was the equivalent of being on a PK.

It is very, very, very hard not to do better.

You’re focusing in and harping on the worst season of his career.
No one had a problem with Lindgren until this season. There was not 1 thread or post brought up that they should deal him…..
He had a bad year… new team system, out with injury, etc. he was better when he returned, but still now what we’re used to.
Rangers were a final 4 team and won the presidents trophy. They aren’t overhauling 50% of the D..
Management/Coaches have more faith in Lindgren regaining form than most think.
Chemistry is also a real thing…. He’s has come up as part of that 2nd core and coaches and players both hold him in high regard…
For the money he’ll get, he’s not going to be on an albatross deal of a 7-8 lengthy burden.
I don’t think a miller-Fox pairing is ideal. Miller still does a lot of dumb decisions. He should be learning from his mistakes, not repeating them over and over….. if miller for B Tkachuk was the base of a trade with NYR adding a little more, I’d drive him to the airport.. and I like miller.
Fox also appreciates Lindgren more the. HF. He knows his partner isn’t going to skate in the opposite direction when opposing players are getting chippy with him after the whistle.
Finding a new partner for Fox is all well and good, but it has to be a clear cut upgrade.
Some wanna make a lateral move just cause……
Lindgren is still an asset for this team on 2nd or 3rd pair….
They should really be full steam ahead moving on from Trouba this offseason.
Eà

 

[The Crypto Guy]

38 minutes.



38 minutes isn't insignificant through 3 rounds.

Do we need to do an entire career sample size? Because that one isn't good either.

Or how about Fox's almost hour away from Lindgren in this same run?

38 minutes is absolutely insignificant playing with player(s) he’s never practiced with.

 

[Atax]

You’re focusing in and harping on the worst season of his career.
No one had a problem with Lindgren until this season. There was not 1 thread or post brought up that they should deal him…..
He had a bad year… new team system, out with injury, etc. he was better when he returned, but still now what we’re used to.
Rangers were a final 4 team and won the presidents trophy. They aren’t overhauling 50% of the D..
Management/Coaches have more faith in Lindgren regaining form than most think.
Chemistry is also a real thing…. He’s has come up as part of that 2nd core and coaches and players both hold him in high regard…
For the money he’ll get, he’s not going to be on an albatross deal of a 7-8 lengthy burden.
I don’t think a miller-Fox pairing is ideal. Miller still does a lot of dumb decisions. He should be learning from his mistakes, not repeating them over and over….. if miller for B Tkachuk was the base of a trade with NYR adding a little more, I’d drive him to the airport.. and I like miller.
Fox also appreciates Lindgren more the. HF. He knows his partner isn’t going to skate in the opposite direction when opposing players are getting chippy with him after the whistle.
Finding a new partner for Fox is all well and good, but it has to be a clear cut upgrade.
Some wanna make a lateral move just cause……
Lindgren is still an asset for this team on 2nd or 3rd pair….
They should really be full steam ahead moving on from Trouba this offseason.
Eà

Come on dude. People have been clamoring for him to be traded. We especially want him gone because we dont want him extended. We've seen what happens to careers of players like him. They dont get better. He's only going to get progessively worse/more injured.

Chemistry? Really? Fox is one of the best players in the world. He can develop chemistry with a good player.
Miller making mistakes? Sure. He's a bit of an idiot but he can skate. Lindgren is just a walking mistake waiting to happen. Teams allow Lindgren to get the puck because he's just going to launch it up the boards to the other team, or turn it over.

Fox isnt Lebron James. He doesnt get to decide who his teammate is. Literally any player is an upgrade over Lindgren.
I agree. Move Trouba. And Lindgren.

 

[effen]

I think anything beyond replacing Gus with Jones and trading 1 of Trouba/Lindgren is unreasonable. They're gonna need to acquire two top-6 D and so will probably every other team in the league.

Gus is a finished product who got absolutely bodied all playoffs as the 6th guy. There's no mitigating him and nowhere to hide. You don't resign this kind of guy.

 

[NYR Viper]

I think anything beyond replacing Gus with Jones and trading 1 of Trouba/Lindgren is unreasonable. They're gonna need to acquire two top-6 D and so will probably every other team in the league.

Gus is a finished product who got absolutely bodied all playoffs as the 6th guy. There's no mitigating him and nowhere to hide. You don't resign this kind of guy.

I think Jones steps in to replace him.

I'm hoping Drury is more aggressive than this but I could see this happening.

 

[Atax]

If we roll out:
Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Trouba
Jones-Schneider

That team will be a 2nd round exit. Maybe first depending on the opponent. Unless Igor drags us to the ECF again. Its not a Stanley cup winning defense.

 

[Overcast]

You’re focusing in and harping on the worst season of his career.
No one had a problem with Lindgren until this season. There was not 1 thread or post brought up that they should deal him…..
He had a bad year… new team system, out with injury, etc. he was better when he returned, but still now what we’re used to.
Rangers were a final 4 team and won the presidents trophy. They aren’t overhauling 50% of the D..
Management/Coaches have more faith in Lindgren regaining form than most think.
Chemistry is also a real thing…. He’s has come up as part of that 2nd core and coaches and players both hold him in high regard…
For the money he’ll get, he’s not going to be on an albatross deal of a 7-8 lengthy burden.
I don’t think a miller-Fox pairing is ideal. Miller still does a lot of dumb decisions. He should be learning from his mistakes, not repeating them over and over….. if miller for B Tkachuk was the base of a trade with NYR adding a little more, I’d drive him to the airport.. and I like miller.
Fox also appreciates Lindgren more the. HF. He knows his partner isn’t going to skate in the opposite direction when opposing players are getting chippy with him after the whistle.
Finding a new partner for Fox is all well and good, but it has to be a clear cut upgrade.
Some wanna make a lateral move just cause……
Lindgren is still an asset for this team on 2nd or 3rd pair….
They should really be full steam ahead moving on from Trouba this offseason.
Eà

There were plenty of posts last season pointing out Lindgren's decline and how he was dragging Fox down. I don't think an upgrade would be terribly difficult to find, "chemistry" or not. Panarin learned to live without Strome, Fox will learn to live without Lindgren. When does on-ice play outweigh perceived chemistry?

Trading most players isn't like ending a 25-year marriage. They're sort of friendly because they're millionaires playing on the same sports team. I'd figure out how to have chemistry with someone too if I was in that situation. I'd also figure out how to have chemistry with the next guy that gets brought in.

I don't see them trading Trouba. I know it's fun and exciting to have the Rangers trade their captain again and be captain-less for the next 4 years with 12 rotating A's again, but I think the reality is it will be either Lindgren or Miller that gets moved on D. Trouba forced his way here, set up his family here, and has become pretty engrained in the NYC community. Lindgren and Miller both have positive images around the league I'd imagine and would probably return more than Trouba.

If they could figure something based on Miller/Kakko+ for Tkachuk I don't blink at pulling the trigger.

 

[kovazub94]

Cant wait till we trade Lindgren, a decent middle pair defenseman who really shouldnt be on the top pair, only to then overpay a player 2M+ more than his contract and will be same player. All to get a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Then we will trade that pick for toughness at the deadline that we lost from losing him.

Rango logic.

You have to separate the vitriol coming from some of the posters. Lindgren is not a bad player per se but a big factor was the cheap contract he carried over the last few years. It’s not going to be the case on his next contract and he does not provide enough size, or speed or skill to justify what he brings at a higher price. He did have the worst season in his career and will likely be able to rebound somewhat. However to your point there’s a clear factors for Drury to address if he decides to to improve on Lindgren at admittedly higher co$t. Why I think it will be both Lindgren and Trouba is because higher cost for Lindgren’s replacement could be offset by lower cost of Trouba’s replacement.

 

[lakeshirts37]

I'd be hoping for more than that but I'm okay with picks.

Even if Lindgren is just a 4/5 d-man, a team is still getting him for what is likely at least the next 4 years during his prime. He's a leader and a warrior and would fit in well in the right group.

In saying that, with the Rangers he just can't slot appropriately.

I'd be hoping for a 2nd this year, a 3rd this year and a 2nd next year. this is why I keep bringing up Utah for Lindgren. They literally have NO defensemen signed for next season, Durzi, Valimaki and Moser are RFA's and here are their picks

View attachment 881128

Hell, I'd take Utah's 2nd '24, the Rangers 2nd '25 and the Rangers 3rd '25.

That was my armchair gm trade many of times. Get our picks back from Utah for Lindgren. No brainer

 

[kovazub94]

There were plenty of posts last season pointing out Lindgren's decline and how he was dragging Fox down. I don't think an upgrade would be terribly difficult to find, "chemistry" or not. Panarin learned to live without Strome, Fox will learn to live without Lindgren. When does on-ice play outweigh perceived chemistry?

Trading most players isn't like ending a 25-year marriage. They're sort of friendly because they're millionaires playing on the same sports team. I'd figure out how to have chemistry with someone too if I was in that situation. I'd also figure out how to have chemistry with the next guy that gets brought in.

I don't see them trading Trouba. I know it's fun and exciting to have the Rangers trade their captain again and be captain-less for the next 4 years with 12 rotating A's again, but I think the reality is it will be either Lindgren or Miller that gets moved on D. Trouba forced his way here, set up his family here, and has become pretty engrained in the NYC community. Lindgren and Miller both have positive images around the league I'd imagine and would probably return more than Trouba.

If they could figure something based on Miller/Kakko+ for Tkachuk I don't blink at pulling the trigger.

You start with advocating a none-sentimental approach to moving Lindgren and in the following paragraph use it as a crotch to suggest that Trouba won’t be moved.
Why do you think Trouba’s contract is structured this way with limited NTC? How sentimental were the Rangers when they moved McD or Callahan in a very recent past? Both Lindgren and Trouba have about the same probability of being moved and if Drury used this season for look / see what happens under a new coach and what has to be done - it’s pretty clear. I also don’t see any evidence from Drury being a sentimental guy. More quite the opposite.

 

[SA16]

You start with advocating a none-sentimental approach to moving Lindgren and in the following paragraph use it as a crotch to suggest that Trouba won’t be moved. Why do you think his contract is structured this way? How sentimental were the Rangers when they moved McD or Callahan in a very recent past? Both have about the same probability of being moved and if Drury used this season for look / see what happens under a new coach and what has to be done - it’s pretty clear. I also don’t see any evidence from Drury being a sentimental guy. More quite the opposite.

There is no chance Lindgren and Trouba have the same probability of being moved simply because way more teams can fit in Lindgren's potential salary than Troubas actual salary, not to mention the NTC.

 

[LaffyTaffy13]

I wouldn’t say NO shot, it depends on the AAV. If he’s so good he’d get a second monster contract at 29, he’d also get one at 31.

29 is being nice. Hed be 30 by the first game. Just as 31 is generous as he’ll be 32 by the time of the first game of that contract

He aint signing longer than 6 years. Something like 6 X 8.5

Put yourself in laff’s agents shoes

Drury: hey we wanna do an 8 year deal

Laff’s agent: no, we just signed a sweetheart 2 X $2.6 for one of the best 5v5 players in hockey, we’d prefer 5 years so my client can cash in again on another deal

Drury: no, we want 8

Laff’s agent: youre not getting 8

Laff and his camp hold ALLLLLLLL of the leverage here. Not just a little bit but rather ALL of it.

 

[kovazub94]

There is no chance Lindgren and Trouba have the same probability of being moved simply because way more teams can fit in Lindgren's potential salary than Troubas actual salary, not to mention the NTC.

Point taken but on the other side of the argument you can put Trouba’s reputation (as a better player) and team’s ability to withhold some salary - like making it more $6.5m, not $8m. I made these points repeatedly over the last few days so didn’t want to say it again.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I've said it before but I think there's more of an impetus to upgrade #1 LD than Trouba. At least with Trouba it is theoretically possible to hide him on the 3rd pair and PK, limiting his minutes enough if the team has faith in Schneider. But having Lindgren playing on the top pair, because that's where he will be stapled if he's on the team is not feasible if you want to win a cup.

 

[UnSandvich]

Over the last 3 years, Lindgren has played 2941 mins with Fox at 5v5, and 430 away. Fox has played about 590 mins away from Lindgren.

Together:
CF: 51.16%
FF: 51.8%
SF: 51.39%
GF: 58.59%
xGF: 50.29%
HDCF: 51.98%
HDGF: 56.25%

No Fox:
CF: 42.84%
FF: 44.18%
SF: 46.35%
GF: 50%
xGF: 40.11%
HDCF: 41.56%
HDGF: 35.71%

No Lindgren
CF: 60.86%
FF: 61.02%
SF: 61.96%
GF: 55%
xGF: 62.08%
HDCF: 59.77%
HDGF: 58.06%

 

[effen]

Arizona's got enough picks that they can trade for any one of 50 guys for their defense. Hard part is them really liking Lindgren, they can get overpay for literally anyone they want.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

It is insignificant, and I’m sorry nothing will change that. I’d bet the career splits are also heavily driven by situational play as well considering it’s more likely that they’re separated when Fox is being deployed pushing for a goal.

It’s moot regardless. I’m fine upgrading on Lindgren. The bad analysis to push your narrative against him is where I have the issue. The issues with the defense aren’t completely player specific either, especially when the entire unit sans Fox either took steps back or stagnated this year.

This is what happens when you have a heavily regressed Lindgren and Trouba in your top 4. Do you remember how much better the defense looked when they were both out and replaced by bascially replacement level players? Because I do.

Also Schneider took a step forward this year and Gus was clearly a better bottom pair option than anything we've run out there so this is just factually incorrect.

Lastly, why are those minutes insignificant?

You're better than this. Not all of those minutes can be situationally driven, its just not possible and the common 'OH LINDGREN IS OUT THERE PROTECTING A LEAD" (this isn't coming from you btw) shit is just BS, as if Fox isn't eating minutes in those situations as well lol. But even if they were, rocking a sub 10% xGF% is never good when you're 5v5. It's really not even that good 4v5. I don't think he's THAT bad (sub 10% that is) either, but it's clear that he isn't good and it's not about painting a narrative, we have loads of data that already support that independent of it, all we have to do is look at what he did with Fox, they're just extra logs that exist on that fire.

You’re focusing in and harping on the worst season of his career.
No one had a problem with Lindgren until this season. There was not 1 thread or post brought up that they should deal him…..
He had a bad year… new team system, out with injury, etc. he was better when he returned, but still now what we’re used to.
Rangers were a final 4 team and won the presidents trophy. They aren’t overhauling 50% of the D..
Management/Coaches have more faith in Lindgren regaining form than most think.
Chemistry is also a real thing…. He’s has come up as part of that 2nd core and coaches and players both hold him in high regard…
For the money he’ll get, he’s not going to be on an albatross deal of a 7-8 lengthy burden.
I don’t think a miller-Fox pairing is ideal. Miller still does a lot of dumb decisions. He should be learning from his mistakes, not repeating them over and over….. if miller for B Tkachuk was the base of a trade with NYR adding a little more, I’d drive him to the airport.. and I like miller.
Fox also appreciates Lindgren more the. HF. He knows his partner isn’t going to skate in the opposite direction when opposing players are getting chippy with him after the whistle.
Finding a new partner for Fox is all well and good, but it has to be a clear cut upgrade.
Some wanna make a lateral move just cause……
Lindgren is still an asset for this team on 2nd or 3rd pair….
They should really be full steam ahead moving on from Trouba this offseason.
Eà

What makes you think this was just a one off and not the beginning of a sharp decline? Because everything points to it being the latter.

There were plenty of people who have been asking for a better partner for Fox even before this year because even at his best, he was a one dimensional defensive defenseman who killed offense. I think prior to this year, most of us would have been okay with that playing out and Lindgren moving down in the lineup.

He's going to make too much money to play lower and his regression is five alarm fire that should be extinguished, not extended.

 

[haohmaru]

There is no chance Lindgren and Trouba have the same probability of being moved simply because way more teams can fit in Lindgren's potential salary than Troubas actual salary, not to mention the NTC.

You really can’t assess the probability at all given we don’t know management’s position on wanting to trade either one. From where I’m sitting, I think Trouba is the more likely of the two to go.

 

[SA16]

Point taken but on the other side of the argument you can put Trouba’s reputation (as a better player) and team’s ability to withhold some salary - like making it more $6.5m, not $8m. I made these points repeatedly over the last few days so didn’t want to say it again.

I am not so sure Trouba still has that reputation based on everything you see from the media about him. Hard to know what teams think but his reputation seems to be way down.

 

[effen]

You really can’t assess the probability at all given we don’t know management’s position on wanting to trade either one. From where I’m sitting, I think Trouba is the more likely of the two to go.

I think Trouba's more likely to rebound than Lindgren. He's got a lot more to work with.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Over the last 3 years, Lindgren has played 2941 mins with Fox at 5v5, and 430 away. Fox has played about 590 mins away from Lindgren.

Together:
CF: 51.16%
FF: 51.8%
SF: 51.39%
GF: 58.59%
xGF: 50.29%
HDCF: 51.98%
HDGF: 56.25%

No Fox:
CF: 42.84%
FF: 44.18%
SF: 46.35%
GF: 50%
xGF: 40.11%
HDCF: 41.56%
HDGF: 35.71%

No Lindgren
CF: 60.86%
FF: 61.02%
SF: 61.96%
GF: 55%
xGF: 62.08%
HDCF: 59.77%
HDGF: 58.06%

So what you are saying is that Lindgren brings balance to the pairing.

 

[SA16]

Over the last 3 years, Lindgren has played 2941 mins with Fox at 5v5, and 430 away. Fox has played about 590 mins away from Lindgren.

Together:
CF: 51.16%
FF: 51.8%
SF: 51.39%
GF: 58.59%
xGF: 50.29%
HDCF: 51.98%
HDGF: 56.25%

No Fox:
CF: 42.84%
FF: 44.18%
SF: 46.35%
GF: 50%
xGF: 40.11%
HDCF: 41.56%
HDGF: 35.71%

No Lindgren
CF: 60.86%
FF: 61.02%
SF: 61.96%
GF: 55%
xGF: 62.08%
HDCF: 59.77%
HDGF: 58.06%

These numbers are essentially meaningless without context considering in almost all normal game states they are together. If you're going to actually do this you should only look at the following:

1. Fox with Lindgren
2. Fox without Lindgren in games Lindgren did not play
3. Lindgren without Fox in games Fox did not play

You're going to run into sample size issues though.

The numbers may still be one-sided. I don't know. But just doing it like that you're going to make it look worse by account of Fox being on the ice extra late in games when losing and Lindgren on the ice extra when winning and the like. Lindgren will also have a reasonable amount of time away from Fox on shifts that become 5v5 due to a penalty expiring when they are already stuck in their own zone.

Trouba/Lindgren played 154 mins together this year on the PK. They played 47 mins together at 5v5. They have a 29.6 CF%. But how many of those 47 minutes are right after a PK which is why they were on the ice together in the first place? That is a situation where you cannot gain 0 CF (They'll change when the puck goes out) but you can only get CA.