To me, Laf is a checkmark. 3 years worth of data projects him out to be significantly worse in the playoffs. That wont be the case and one of the flaws of this model.
Kakko does a lot, but he will need to produce and come up with some big goals for the team in the dance. Cuylle should be replaced by a top winger, so that
should become a check mark. But regardless, with Chytils injury - the forward depth is really struggling in this regard. A healthy Chytil, with the way he was projecting may have put them over the top. Dont discount how big of an injury that is for this team. For all we know, HE could be this teams #1 center at this point, or something near it. Even if hes a #2, now you have 3 of them in your lineup.
The biggest issues are Trouba & Mika. Especially Mika. He has the ability but hasnt been the player they signed that deal to. He does a lot of things well but ideally hes a 2nd line center. 4 years ago he had over 40 goals in the same amount of games and was a scoring machine. They need
that player in the playoffs, or something similar if they are going to win it all - and it needs to be consistent. Thats doubtful and a huge knock on their chances. They say Drury needs to find a winger for him to "unlock his potential". Im doubtful there's a solution in that, Mika is who he is.
To me, this team is good enough to get to a conference final. They could go further if Igor goes into God mode again, but the sum of their parts really isnt championship calibre. They could inch themselves closer by adding the right players at the deadline, but I still dont think that can make up for their shortcomings.
Unfortunately, when the shit hits the fan in the playoffs and the level goes up 2 notches, its a different game and their weaknesses are exposed. I know a lot of fans are gonna be jazzed up come April, as they should - but the fans who are really paying attention know this team/core has flaws and they'll need a little more puck luck and good fortune to get to 16 wins.
I also think Drury knows this 100% and its why they moved heaven and earth to buy a lottery ticket in Kane in last year. I'd expect 2 or 3 players to reinforce things, but they just dont have enough cap space to make much of difference. Listen, anything is possible and ill be tuning in like everyone else. But on paper things just arent there right now.
For those who dont have the Athletic here is the chart and the basis:
View attachment 825964
Stanley Cup Checklist Legend
Red X: Falls below the range entirely
Gray checkmark: Passable, but below the average champion
Black checkmark: Above average relative to the average Cup winner
Gold checkmark: Exceeds the range entirely
View attachment 825969
Florida is the only team with all the boxes checked