Roster Building thread - Part X - (TDL edition)

[Machinehead]

The Athletic did a “Cup checklist” breakdown of Eastern Conference teams. Projected value is “based on three years of data, weighed for recency and adjusted for age.”

Stanley Cup Checklist Legend​

Red X: Falls below the range entirely

Gray checkmark: Passable, but below the average champion

Black checkmark: Above average relative to the average Cup winner

Gold checkmark: Exceeds the range entirely

View attachment 826031

Chris Kreider forever

 

[McRanger92]

The Athletic did a “Cup checklist” breakdown of Eastern Conference teams. Projected value is “based on three years of data, weighed for recency and adjusted for age.”

Stanley Cup Checklist Legend​

Red X: Falls below the range entirely

Gray checkmark: Passable, but below the average champion

Black checkmark: Above average relative to the average Cup winner

Gold checkmark: Exceeds the range entirely

View attachment 826031

If only it were as easy as Dom claims it is, the Leafs may have won more than 1 playoff round this millennium.

 

[NYR Viper]

I don't have the charts but here are Lauzon's last 2 years in Nashville versus Mikkola's two years prior to coming to the Rangers


Lauzon 23-24 vs Mikkola 22-23 (STL only)

Lauzon
59gp
11 p
81 PIMS
18:02 TOI
85 blocks
281 hits
-3.2 CF Rel @ 5v5
0.6 p/60 @ 5v5

Mikkola
50 gp
3 p
35 PIMs
16:39 TOI
68 blocks
96 hits
-6.7 CF Rel @ 5v5
0.2 p/60 @ 5v5


Lauzon 22-23 vs Mikkola 21-22 (STL)

Lauzon
67 gp
12 p
66 PIM's
16:51 TOI
75 blocks
250 hits
-3.1 CF rel @ 5v5
0.6 p/60 5v5

Mikkola
81 gp
6 p
58 PIM's
17:26 TOI
106 blocks
151 hits
-4.9 CF Rel @ 5v5



Mikkola was an effective player for this team down the stretch. I could see this one having some legs

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

If only it were as easy as Dom claims it is, the Leafs may have won more than 1 playoff round this millennium.

Where’s their elite dman and goalie?

People get blinded by fancy forwards but their team make up is not very good

 

[Cmox]

First he tries to dislocate KK's shoulder before the stadium series, now this. Stop it Badrow.

This is just a typical tuesday and thursday for Lindgren.

 

[McRanger92]

Where’s their elite dman and goalie?

Ive been told Morgan Rielly and Joseph Woll are integral to their success

 

[PuckLuck3043]

If only it were as easy as Dom claims it is, the Leafs may have won more than 1 playoff round this millennium.

And they barely won that round.

 

[IDvsEGO]

The Athletic did a “Cup checklist” breakdown of Eastern Conference teams. Projected value is “based on three years of data, weighed for recency and adjusted for age.”

Stanley Cup Checklist Legend​

Red X: Falls below the range entirely

Gray checkmark: Passable, but below the average champion

Black checkmark: Above average relative to the average Cup winner

Gold checkmark: Exceeds the range entirely

View attachment 826031

And we immediately look better flipping trocheck and mika
We also look better flipping Trouba and miller.

 

[Machinehead]

Ive been told Morgan Rielly and Joseph Woll are integral to their success

Does Dom think that? Because analytics hate Rielly.

 

[Machinehead]

Mikkola and Lauzon are a bit different.

Mikkola is a good defender but he's so bad at moving the puck that his overall numbers suffer. Lauzon isn't a good defender at all.

 

[aufheben]

If only it were as easy as Dom claims it is, the Leafs may have won more than 1 playoff round this millennium.

What about this checklist implies ease?

 

[LOFIN]

Where’s their elite dman and goalie?

People get blinded by fancy forwards but their team make up is not very good

Despite not having an elite D-man or an elite goalie, they have not failed in the playoffs because of those factors. Their goaltending has been good enough. Their defence has been good enough. Their depth has been good enough. It's that their top players have done f*** all in the most important time of the year. I guess they did it against Tampa last year, only to disappear against Florida.

The funny thing about the Leafs "core-4" and not being able to win in the playoffs because of four guys is frankly false. The team around them has been good enough in the last few years. It's just that the core-4 itself has failed time and time again.

 

[NYR Viper]

Mikkola and Lauzon are a bit different.

Mikkola is a good defender but he's so bad at moving the puck that his overall numbers suffer. Lauzon isn't a good defender at all.

Not questioning you, but where are the numbers you're seeing that support that? His overall possession numbers don't look worse which indicates his team at least has the puck when he's on the ice more than Mikkola. He hits more, which obviously is a double edged sword. He doesn't have the puck as much when he is on the ice but he is actively trying to dislodge it from his man.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

Does Dom think that? Because analytics hate Rielly.

I'm certain Rielly's analytics are f***ed, because the Leafs never built a proper defense, to help him out. He has great skating and a proper two-way game.

 

[bhamill]

You are overvaluing our guys and undervaluing Pettersson. I think Perrreault is a great prospect and Laf is having a very nice season but to assume both will become what you say and passing up on a top-6 or 7 center in the league who is only in his mid 20s would be a mistake if it is even a possibility.

We simply disagree on value, and you ignored the 11 to 13 million a year that is not being offset in the trade. In a vacuum, maybe its reasonable, but thats not the case. I'm not undervaluing Petterson, I think he's great, but in my eyes we are mortgaging the future in some ways and would be putting Petterson on an island. Who is playing with him in 3 years if we trade our two best wing futures? We aren't resigning Bread with a 13mil AVV already on the books, Kreids will be 36, Zibs may barely be a 2C. Kakko is looking like a nice 2RW for the future, but... Cuylle and Oth look like middle six guys, Othmann COULD turn out to be more... We have NO high end wings in the system aside from Laf and GP. If we can make it work with ONE of them staying a NYR, I think its way more reasonable.
I'd love to add Petterson, but IMO we need to hold onto at least one of those wings.

 

[Machinehead]

Not questioning you, but where are the numbers you're seeing that support that? His overall possession numbers don't look worse which indicates his team at least has the puck when he's on the ice more than Mikkola. He hits more, which obviously is a double edged sword. He doesn't have the puck as much when he is on the ice but he is actively trying to dislodge it from his man.

xG and GAR. According to those, Mikkola gives up shots but he prevents chances.

Look how bad he is at offense.

 

[aufheben]

We simply disagree on value, and you ignored the 11 to 13 million a year that is not being offset in the trade. In a vacuum, maybe its reasonable, but thats not the case. I'm not undervaluing Petterson, I think he's great, but in my eyes we are mortgaging the future in some ways and would be putting Petterson on an island. Who is playing with him in 3 years if we trade our two best wing futures? We aren't resigning Bread with a 13mil AVV already on the books, Kreids will be 36, Zibs may barely be a 2C. Kakko is looking like a nice 2RW for the future, but... Cuylle and Oth look like middle six guys, Othmann COULD turn out to be more... We have NO high end wings in the system aside from Laf and GP. If we can make it work with ONE of them staying a NYR, I think its way more reasonable.
I'd love to add Petterson, but IMO we need to hold onto at least one of those wings.

His linemates right now aren’t anything special:

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I'm certain Rielly's analytics are f***ed, because the Leafs never built a proper defense, to help him out. He has great skating and a proper two-way game.

He’s always been ass defensively.

 

[Savant]

You run to the phone for that Ducks trade just based on offloading Goodrow.

No you don’t. You just buy him out at the end of the season and keep your assets

His linemates right now aren’t anything special:

View attachment 826040

If the Rangers can swing a trade for EP, they should have no untouchables in said trade

 

[aufheben]

Here’s the whole Eastern playoff race. I don’t know what’s been going on with the Penguins this year. I know their PP is awful. Maybe they need a new coach.

 

[McRanger92]

Does Dom think that? Because analytics hate Rielly.

I dont care what he thinks but I know his model for years was pumping up the Leafs. I think less so in the last couple but again there is nothing in his numbers that accurately project anything once the playoffs start. The people who act like that "checklist" is the Ten Commandments and not just the passion project of a diehard fan with a stats background is why there is such a wedge between the analytics and eye test people, and its especially bad in hockey.

For example, The Penguins check almost every box. Has it just been bad luck that they havent won a playoff series since 2017? Because anyone who has watched them knows thats not the case.

 

[aufheben]

No you don’t. You just buy him out at the end of the season and keep your assets


If the Rangers can swing a trade for EP, they should have no untouchables in said trade

Unfortunately Zibanejad basically has to be the main piece and he has a NMC. Maybe he’s always wanted to live in the PNW.

 

[Savant]

Unfortunately Zibanejad basically has to be the main piece and he has a NMC. Maybe he’s always wanted to live in the PNW.

Vancouver is awesome. Also have no problem with Zibanejad headlining that deal. Honestly Vancouver probably would want a guy like Zibanejad headline that deal too.

 

[NYR Viper]

xG and GAR. According to those, Mikkola gives up shots but he prevents chances.

Look how bad he is at offense.

View attachment 826039

Is Lauzon bad across the board?

 

[aufheben]

Vancouver is awesome. Also have no problem with Zibanejad headlining that deal. Honestly Vancouver probably would want a guy like Zibanejad headline that deal too.

I was creeping their EP thread last night. I saw NYR mentioned a couple times. They want basically a younger version of Zibanejad (except one madman who proposed Lafreniere + Miller).