Roster Building thread - Part X - (TDL edition)

[Gardner McKay]

Well that's unlikely to happen. So we shoudn't expect it. Drury's MO has always been to get a bottom pair defenseman at the deadline.

I get that. But we don't need one and I think Drury will recognize that this year. I'm not holding out hope for a Troy a replacement, but I think the defense remains un touched at the deadline.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Yeah we should instead listen to the people who have seen Lauzon play a grand total of 2 games in the last 3 years instead. Good idea. And they didn't even watch him specifically.

Even if they have only seen him play 2 games if the conclusion that they came to after watching him play is “I want that” then there is a problem.

He’s awful and has done nothing notable in his career outside of smoking Jack that one time.

 

[mas0764]

It's really not though. Miller was a late first round pick. He's by far surpassed all expectations for a player in that range.

Laf could and should have at least another 7-10 goals. He should be closer to the 25-30 mark than the 17 he's at now.

Miller has surpassed expectations vis-a-vis his draft position, but not where we have pencilled him in for ourselves. We are counting on him, and paying him, to be a future top pair defender, or at least that caliber player even if he stays on the second pair. At $4M+ on a second contract, he has to be moving towards that. This isn't a discussion of whether he's a success as a draft pick, it's a discussion as to what we need him to be given the time, money, and on-ice minutes we've invested in him and expect from him. We expect and need him to take the next leap and he hasn't quite so far.

That's not to say he's bad. His charts are good and I'd like to see what he looks like away from the anchor he plays with. He's a keeper. The chart says he needs to be a 1D on the second pair and he's not that, yet, though.

Same for Lafreniere, though with him he's underachieving relative to his draft position unlike Miller. Still, yeah, Laf has has a very good year if you strip away 1OA expectations. On the other hand, his defense remains mediocre to lousy, he needs to improve his finishing, and he goes too long without making an impact at times. The chart says we need another player who is more at Kreider's level. Not there.... yet.

I do agree, as I said, that the chart probably doesn't factor in bad luck, so it's probably dinging Lafreniere more than he should be. Still, I'd like to see Lafreniere take another step and Kakko take a step into Lafreniere territory before I really stop worrying about them.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

So we don't have the puck, then.

That happens during the course of a game.

 

[McRanger92]

Yeah we should instead listen to the people who have seen Lauzon play a grand total of 2 games in the last 3 years instead. Good idea.

Idk man I just think there's more to evaluating a player than heat maps. We need a stay at home defenseman, have you seen how wide open it is in front of our net? I dont expect a defense first guy to have the underlying numbers of an offensive player. Maybe I'm missing something but thats how I judge it.

 

[zlev]

Lauzon would prob be an upgrade on Trouba though lmao

 

[Raspewtin]

Idk man I just think there's more to evaluating a player than heat maps. We need a stay at home defenseman, have you seen how wide open it is in front of our net? I dont expect a defense first guy to have the underlying numbers of an offensive player. Maybe I'm missing something but thats how I judge it.

We do see it and we do understand the need for better defensive play, I'm just questioning how Lauzon helps there besides being physical which in no way leads to better defensive play?

most "stay at home" D are bad at preventing goals and chances which is why the "charts" always kill them

 

[Machinehead]

Yeah, Lafreniere is awful defensively. I don't care.

If you produce and somebody on your team plays defense, you can get away with it in the NHL. Not as many productive forwards are as good at defense as you think. Even some of the top players are consistently dog shit like Rantanen and Draisaitl.

This is going to bother people but it's true: stars in the NHL get away with being bad defensively way more than in the NBA and many positions in MLB.

If Laf continues to progress on offense, especially at even strength, that's all I'm concerned with.

 

[Machinehead]

That happens during the course of a game.

Yeah, and it happens a lot more to guys averaging over 5 hits per game. If his hitting were effective, he wouldn't have to keep hitting. He would get the puck back. It's hitting for the sake of hitting.

 

[McRanger92]

We do see it and we do understand the need for better defensive play, I'm just questioning how Lauzon helps there besides being physical which in no way leads to better defensive play?

I dont think what you said is true. Guys who can are strong and physical can keep the opponent away from the netfront and separate them from the puck. That's important in the playoffs. Lauzon would presumably be our #7 anyway. Whenever I've seen him play he's been noticeable.

 

[IDvsEGO]

Yeah, Lafreniere is awful defensively. I don't care.

If you produce and somebody on your team plays defense, you can get away with it in the NHL. Not as many productive forwards are as good at defense as you think. Even some of the top players are consistently dog shit like Rantanen and Draisaitl.

This is going to bother people but it's true: stars in the NHL get away with being bad defensively way more than in the NBA and many positions in MLB.

If Laf continues to progress on offense, especially at even strength, that's all I'm concerned with.

Producing offensively also impacts defensive ability.
Can’t give up goals if you score all the time.

 

[zlev]

we're gonna trade for Lauzon to sit Gustafsson and lose in the first round again

 

[Levitate]

Miller is not being paid like a future top pair guy lol what the hell

We all hope he could take that step but that’s more to do with people projections of what they hope for than reality they need to accept

Paying a guy $4 mill in a second contract has nothing to do with whether he should or shouldn’t be developing into a top pair guy. He was compensated adequately for his past performances as a second pair guy who put up 40 points, not overload in the hopes he’d grow into his contract

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Yeah, and it happens a lot more to guys averaging over 5 hits per game. If his hitting were effective, he wouldn't have to keep hitting. He would get the puck back. It's hitting for the sake of hitting.

Not true at all. Not every player goes for the hit every chance they get, he does.

 

[Fitzy]

Panarin didn't play defense at all when he entered the league and now, when he feels compelled to do so, it's one of his more underrated attributes.

Good hands can in many cases mean more effective defense from a forward. Laf just doesn't have the motor to get up and down the ice effectively for 17 minutes a game to contribute at both ends. Maybe it will come.

 

[Levitate]

again if he’s constantly playing defense because he can’t get or move the puck then that’s not good no matter how much he hits

We need players who can play

 

[Machinehead]

I dont think what you said is true. Guys who can are strong and physical can keep the opponent away from the netfront and separate them from the puck. That's important in the playoffs. Lauzon would presumably be our #7 anyway. Whenever I've seen him play he's been noticeable.

Sure. You just have to show me that they can actually do that. Lauzon gives up goals like the net is empty.

It's not "fancy stats," it's just cold hard goals.

we're gonna trade for Lauzon to sit Gustafsson and lose in the first round again

To be fair, we're gonna lose in the first round again anyway.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Idk man I just think there's more to evaluating a player than heat maps. We need a stay at home defenseman, have you seen how wide open it is in front of our net? I dont expect a defense first guy to have the underlying numbers of an offensive player. Maybe I'm missing something but thats how I judge it.

Of course there is more to evaluating the sport than just looking at heat maps. The problem is no one actually does that. And there is more to the numbers than just heat maps. There are people tracking all sorts of data that they have to actually watch the games to do so. That's not what is happening here though. So I will stick to the numbers until someone can coherently break down and evaluate the sport at a high enough level.

 

[Machinehead]

Also, Lauzon isn't even big.

If you're gonna do the "big and strong" thing, they have to be bigger than me. I'm making that a rule.

 

[Raspewtin]

I dont think what you said is true. Guys who can are strong and physical can keep the opponent away from the netfront and separate them from the puck. That's important in the playoffs. Lauzon would presumably be our #7 anyway. Whenever I've seen him play he's been noticeable.

Lauzon gets scored on more than every other D on Nashville that has played regular minutes.

Not to dogpile here, it's just a fact

 

[mas0764]

Miller is not being paid like a future top pair guy lol what the hell

Of course he is. You give him that second contract, which is more than Lindgren got, because you believe he's going to develop into that.

He's not being paid as a CURRENT top pair guy. But he got a premium over a guy like Lindgren's second contract because of the perceived upside. Its so that if he reached the top end quicker, that extra million and a half was the buffer so he's not too much of a steal.

This is stupid semantics and splitting hairs anyway.

We expect and need more out of Miller. We need him to be a #1 caliber/analytical defender who can anchor a second pair or play the first pair. You really need three #1 defenders to be a high end cup team, the metrics show. (Not three Adam Fox Norris winners, but three guys who are at least capable of eating first pair minutes at a first pair rate or better). If he's not that eventually we are probably in trouble in terms of Cup hopes.

 

[McRanger92]

Of course there is more to evaluating the sport than just looking at heat maps. The problem is no one actually does that. And there is more to the numbers than just heat maps. There are people tracking all sorts of data that they have to actually watch the games to do so. That's not what is happening here though. So I will stick to the numbers until someone can coherently break down and evaluate the sport at a high enough level.

Im just a fan who wants the team to add a tough stay at home defenseman. I dont think the Rangers are stupid for wanting a guy who hits, blocks shots and looks out for his teammates for a playoff run.

 

[aufheben]

Our top-4 is set, adding a defenseman isn’t going to fix anything as long as Lindgren is stapled to Fox and Trouba exists.

 

[Levitate]

Of course he is. You give him that second contract, which is more than Lindgren got, because you believe he's going to develop into that.

He's not being paid as a CURRENT top pair guy. But he got a premium over a guy like Lindgren's second contract because of the perceived upside. Its so that if he reached the top end quicker, that extra million and a half was the buffer so he's not too much of a steal.

This is stupid semantics and splitting hairs anyway.

We expect and need more out of Miller. We need him to be a #1 caliber/analytical defender who can anchor a second pair or play the first pair. You really need three #1 defenders to be a high end cup team, the metrics show. (Not three Adam Fox Norris winners, but three guys who are at least capable of eating first pair minutes at a first pair rate or better). If he's not that eventually we are probably in trouble in terms of Cup hopes.

There’s no we, there’s you

He was paid for what he did. You pay him that because of his past performance

E: that he’s not playing with Fox now is more an issue of how evey coach seems to think these pairs are just ideal and Fox needs stay at home lindgren who’s been getting his tires pumped for years

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

ESPN trade deadline article has us trading Goodrow, Sykora, Laba, 1st, and 3rd for Henrique and Vatrano.

They also have Devils trading Holtz and Mercer for Markstrom @ 80%