Roster Building thread - Part X - (TDL edition)

[bhamill]

So Fox isn’t a #1 and Igor isn’t elite? Or am I misreading it

Weirdly, he's elite, but not a number 1 Dman.
And yeah, Igor is well below average!
It's a really dumb f***ing chart.

 

[McRanger92]

Weirdly, he's elite, but not a number 1 Dman.
And yeah, Igor is well below average!
It's a really dumb f***ing chart.

I was failing to follow how every cup winner apparently needs to have an elite defenseman, a number 1 defenseman and 2 top pair defenseman.

 

[Savant]

What are the chances of enticing Calgary to trade Sharongovitch? 25, one more year left making 3.1, has 20 goals this year. Maybe they figure they won’t be able to lock him up long term.

Would rather do this than any of the retreads

 

[mas0764]

No you don't. You give him that second contract because he is earned it and you need to see how he progresses before you commit long term. If you believe he is developing into a top defenseman, you try to lock him up for 8 years at a lower cap hit to maximize your cap dollars.

He doesn't have to agree to that long term deal, and the team may not be sold.

There's definitely a component of forward projection when handing out a contract. That doesn't mean he didn't "earn it."

If it was all about what your previously earned, Patrick Kane would still be like the highest paid player in the league.

And Miller is being paid partially based on where the team thinks he's going and not where he's been.

I think you and I just disagree philosophically. Miller is already well worth his $3.8 million dollar per year contract. He is a top four defenseman, with a great contract and I feel like this is where "charts" get abused and why people disregard them all together (which is a mistake). Any chart that tells me a 24 year old who has averaged 20 minutes a night since his rookie season, has continuously improved, and is on pace for 33 points after a 40+ point year last year, that he needs to improve further... all I can do is

I think you are trying to say a different thing than I am.

To be a successful draft pick? To be a good player? Miller has already achieved those things, agreed. That's not what we are talking about though.

The Rangers still need more from him to get to the Cup Finals.

 

[Fitzy]

Fox is an elite #1 defenseman.

He's a tier above prime McDonagh, a tier below prime Leetch.

Unfortunately he kind of stopped improving at 23. I had hoped one day he'd be in the Leetch-tier conversation but I think that's unlikely at this point.

I don't think he will be in the conversation at career's end with guys like Leetch, MacInnis, Housley. I see him more like Drew Doughty, Duncan Keith, maybe Kris Letang

Also I'd argue that even within the confines of this down season for Miller, he is still offering more to the team all factors considered than Lindgren, which justifies his price tag. The thing is, I think with recent play he's looking more at a long term extension not unlike the one Brady Skjei got, rather than some sort of 8x8 mega deal. The players have a lot of similarities.

 

[Machinehead]

I dont care what he thinks but I know his model for years was pumping up the Leafs. I think less so in the last couple but again there is nothing in his numbers that accurately project anything once the playoffs start. The people who act like that "checklist" is the Ten Commandments and not just the passion project of a diehard fan with a stats background is why there is such a wedge between the analytics and eye test people, and its especially bad in hockey.

For example, The Penguins check almost every box. Has it just been bad luck that they havent won a playoff series since 2017? Because anyone who has watched them knows thats not the case.

To be fair, the Leafs are a good team. I think all but one of their eliminations this era was by the team that went to the SCF. Only one team wins it.

It still is a very flawed concept. The Penguins are a better example. It's not taking into account age. It's only looking at top talent and not taking into account full roster depth (the Penguins stink in that category and have been underwhelming Crosby's whole career. They got it right a couple of times but Crosby and Malkin carried abysmal rosters from 2010-2015, the years they fell short). It's also only giving an analytics snapshot of what's going on right now and neglecting who these players are and some of the context of where they are in their careers.

Malkin is still a very good player. At 37, is he getting though a playoff run? A red X for Igor is absolutely correct right now, but he still has the talent and is probably more likely than any other goalie in the playoffs to get hot. It says the Rangers are missing a #1 defenseman and Florida has one far exceeding expectations. Ok, right now, through however many games, maybe. On April 22nd, you hit the reset button and Adam Fox is much better than Brandon Montour.

Is Lauzon bad across the board?

Yes. Absolutely bleeds goals. If you want defense, he's not defense.

 

[mas0764]

The Canucks are well within their rights to ask for Laf and Miller, and shouldnt take anything less. We arent getting Pettersson for Zibanejad & Trouba.

I wouldn't think so, but a Zibanejad, first, first, and prospect deal becomes much closer.

Or liquidate Zibanejad for assets himself.

 

[aufheben]

I was failing to follow how every cup winner apparently needs to have an elite defenseman, a number 1 defenseman and 2 top pair defenseman.

It’s an average player rating based on past teams.

 

[Daves a mess]

A one stop shop could be Drury's MO...

Novak + Lauzon

For the record, Lauzon has 2 years left after this one @ $2m

Doesn't Lauzon have a concussion history? I'm pretty sure I've personally seen at least 2.

 

[Machinehead]

Also, holy shit, April 22nd?

Does it start later and later every year, or just me?

 

[mas0764]

Weirdly, he's elite, but not a number 1 Dman.
And yeah, Igor is well below average!
It's a really dumb f***ing chart.

No, it's saying you need an ELITE Dman, and then another #1 Dman (and actually, it's saying you need another two #1 Dmen, or at least most Cup winners have two more defenders playing at that high a level).

Fox can't be two players.

Igor has been below average this season. Nothing weird about that.

If he continues to turn the corner (and they bother to update the chart) then I'm sure it will reflect that.

 

[McRanger92]

It’s an average player rating based on past teams.

Yeah well very few if any teams have 4 top pairing defenseman including multiple elite ones. The problem with Dom's checklist is what @Machinehead articulated better than I could've. Essentially that, at the moment in time that a given team won the Cup, they had 4 guys playing like top defenseman. Not necessarily that they had 4 top defenseman. Like when Colorado won, Makar & Toews were both elite. No one would call Manson or Byram top pair guys now, but at that time they were playing like them. Its a flawed concept and how he labels the roles adds to the flaws imo.

I wouldn't think so, but a Zibanejad, first, first, and prospect deal becomes much closer.

Or liquidate Zibanejad for assets himself.

You're the King of Wishful Thinking

 

[Guyute]

Doesn't Lauzon have a concussion history? I'm pretty sure I've personally seen at least 2.

His brother retired because of concussion issues, but as far as I'm aware Jeremy hasn't had any. I could be wrong though.

 

[Alluckks]

The Rangers traded Callahan at the deadline for an upgrade. No reason Lindgren can’t be traded. Seems to clearly be the most obvious spot for an upgrade.

 

[mas0764]

It’s an average player rating based on past teams.

It shouldn't be that hard to understand but some are determined to pretend the charts make "no sense at all," instead of being generally correct guidelines without being 100% gospel. Which is what they really are.

 

[JimmyG89]

Also, holy shit, April 22nd?

Does it start later and later every year, or just me?

The NBA, which starts their season after the NHL, is April 20th.

The first round of the playoffs is going to go into May. Insane.

 

[mas0764]

Yeah well very few if any teams have 4 top pairing defenseman including multiple elite ones.

Most of them do. Thats what the chart is saying. It’s measured all the past cup winners.

Essentially that, at the moment in time that a given team won the Cup, they had 4 guys playing like top defenseman. Not necessarily that they had 4 top defenseman.

Seems like splitting hairs. The defenseman put up “top defenseman” numbers for the season.

I’d say you at least need the checklist to be met for your playoff run, even if it’s just a hot streak. We don’t have three players who are gonna rise to that level. Maybe two if Miller gets hot. Though to be fair Miller has a gray check which means he’s close.

 

[McRanger92]

Cam Atkinson healthy scratch for Flyers. Contract is heavy for another year and he hasnt been great but 50 points last year. He might just suck now but he is a Connecticut kid and RW.

 

[aufheben]

It shouldn't be that hard to understand but some are determined to pretend the charts make "no sense at all," instead of being generally correct guidelines without being 100% gospel. Which is what they really are.

Stanley Cup checklists have existed on this site long before fancy stats became popular.

 

[Daves a mess]

His brother retired because of concussion issues, but as far as I'm aware Jeremy hasn't had any. I could be wrong though.

You could be right. Which one played for Boston? I saw one in the right corner. He was beyond loopy. Then I thought I saw in a fight.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Saw Drury at Peet’s and positioned myself behind his laptop, this is what I saw - hold on to your knickers:

Lindgren, Goodrow (guess he’s waived his clause), Lamb for Kerfoot and Dermott
Hanifin 33% retained for 2024 1st, Berard, and Robertson - resigned for 7.75 mil
Duclair 50% retained for 4/Henriksson
Kuraly 1 mil retained for 3/Barbashev

Ck MZ Duclair
AP VT AL
WC Kerfoot KK
JV Kuraly Edstrom/Brodz

Hanifin AF
Key JT
Gus BS
ZJ Dermott

 

[NYR Viper]

Atkinson played with Kreider at BC

 

[Rangers in 7]

Cam Atkinson healthy scratch for Flyers. Contract is heavy for another year and he hasnt been great but 50 points last year. He might just suck now but he is a Connecticut kid and RW.

i would love atkinson

 

[majordomo]

ESPN trade deadline article has us trading Goodrow, Sykora, Laba, 1st, and 3rd for Henrique and Vatrano.

They also have Devils trading Holtz and Mercer for Markstrom @ 80%

Someone is definitely smoking or sniffing the wrong stuff!!!

 

[McRanger92]

It shouldn't be that hard to understand but some are determined to pretend the charts make "no sense at all," instead of being generally correct guidelines without being 100% gospel. Which is what they really are.

The same model called Ryan Lindgren a #1 defenseman in April of last year.