Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part X — Active Roster in OP (09/28)

[Avery16]

Yeah, I have to be honest and say that I don’t hate the pairings with these 6 playing. A Staal-McQ pairing can hardly be an option...

With these pairings both Skjei and Pionk get more free roles.

I don’t see how this works unless we dress 7 D or Skjei is now second-pair. McQuaid was getting third-pair minutes in Boston. You don’t just magically become able to handle first-pair minutes after getting traded.

EDIT

…and if Skjei isn't first pair, I guess that means either Staal or Smith is. Yeah, this'll work.

 

[HonestGabe]

 

[kovazub94]

i understand pionk may have the better 2 way game and shot and that ADA gambles too much, and so ADA sitting isnt really that big of a deal, but marc staal is a dumpster fire.

plain and simple, hes a traffic cone which is bolted to the ice. his stick skills are .....well, he has no stick skills. he cant skate that great anymore and he cannot receive a pass or shoot.

staal - mcquaid scares me.

This is the only explanation for Skjei - McQuaid nonsense. If this is a case then they should pair McQuaid with Claesson when he's in the line up and Staal with ADA or Pionk when McQuaid is out.

 

[DanielBrassard]

This is the only explanation for Skjei - McQuaid nonsense. If this is a case then they should pair McQuaid with Claesson when he's in the line up and Staal with ADA or Pionk when McQuaid is out.

McQuaid should be the healthy scratch most of the time, ADA should be in the lineup.

 

[Machinehead]

Jaskin would have been a solid pickup.

Plays with an edge but actually plays hockey.

 

[Irishguy42]

Eh. Jaskin doesn't move the needle for me. Better than McLeod and maybe Lettieri. But that's it.

And you know that McLeod isn't being moved. So that leaves Lettieri, who they were already set on.

All-in-all, Jaskin wouldn't have done much more for the roster than it already is, IMO.

 

[Tawnos]

Eh. Jaskin doesn't move the needle for me. Better than McLeod and maybe Lettieri. But that's it.

And you know that McLeod isn't being moved. So that leaves Lettieri, who they were already set on.

All-in-all, Jaskin wouldn't have done much more for the roster than it already is, IMO.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Lettieri beats Jaskin’s career high in points (18) this season.

 

[Fvital92]

 

[nyr2k2]

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Lettieri beats Jaskin’s career high in points (18) this season.

Seriously. If he played the full year and his usage was decent, I could even see Lettieri scoring more goals than Jaskin has scored points. I think Lettieri can be like a 20-10 guy down the road.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I disagree. refusing to pay hayes like a top 6 center when you aren't sure he is and then hoping the kids step up so you can move him instead of overpaying him is smart cap management.

Totally disagree. You're only looking at it through the best case scenario contingency. If you look at it in a worst case scenario, what if Hayes doesn't perform up to the long-term contract you signed him to? Remember, there were only two options with Hayes: 1-year or 5+ years. In the worst-case, you're then stuck with an awful contract that you can't get out of right when you're top young players are going to need to be locked up long-term. That's also just really bad cap management.

If you really do need to replace Hayes with an insulating type of C, those are available every off-season (ie: Tyler Bozak)... and a UFA you might be able to overpay for a short-term deal to come to a rebuilding team anyway.

I'm elaborating on my point before addressing both of your points. The rumored deal for Hayes was 5 years $6M AAV (it's in a Brooks article somewhere). If he agreed to that deal, he's locked into making just $825k more than he is this season. If he remains status quo but gets more minutes this year, I'd bet money that he's going to require $6M+ as a UFA. Buying out that last RFA year and then eating UFA years is the cheaper solution for the long run, and we've seen countless teams do this recently with bigger name players.

Now to both of your points: he's coming off a year where he got incredibly difficult usage and still excelled as a matchup C. His offensive numbers struggled, but that can easily be attributed to poor linemates and no powerplay time. If you dive into his numbers, he's rated as our highest WAR player by one model and 5th best by another. Despite this usage, he still put up transition stats in the 80th+ percentile in the league and has the following breakdown of his passing plays: 82nd percentile in on-ice shots that the player contributes too, 79th percentile in weighting of primary shot contribution likelihood of becoming goals/assists, and 92nd percentile in shot assists from behind the net or across the slot.

You're looking at a guy that crushed matchup C minutes with bad linemates and started producing once given minutes. He's slated to be put in a better situation than last season with better linemates and more PP time. He also produces very well with Zuccarello, and the Vesey-Hayes-Zucc line had positive GF%rel and xGF%rel compared to some of his other lines.

I really don't see a situation where having this type of player locked up is a bad thing. He insulates kids like Chytil, Andersson, and Howden and would have been locked up through the duration of his prime for those 5 years. A worse player in Bozak just got $5M AAV with a modified-NTC. I'd much rather have Hayes than overpay someone like that.

 

[Irishguy42]

Without really focusing on it, ZBad looks like Jake Gyllenhaal.

Also, it makes it look like ZBad got a haircut, but it's really just his hair swept back.

 

[Fvital92]

Without really focusing on it, ZBad looks like Jake Gyllenhaal.

Also, it makes it look like ZBad got a haircut, but it's really just his hair swept back.

To me Zibanejad is looking like a pervert uncle.

 

[Richard Banger]

Can't even spell "Lettieri" hahaha. What a joke

So you've never made a typo Mr. Perfect?

 

[Tawnos]

I'm elaborating on my point before addressing both of your points. The rumored deal for Hayes was 5 years $6M AAV (it's in a Brooks article somewhere). If he agreed to that deal, he's locked into making just $825k more than he is this season. If he remains status quo but gets more minutes this year, I'd bet money that he's going to require $6M+ as a UFA. Buying out that last RFA year and then eating UFA years is the cheaper solution for the long run, and we've seen countless teams do this recently with bigger name players.

Now to both of your points: he's coming off a year where he got incredibly difficult usage and still excelled as a matchup C. His offensive numbers struggled, but that can easily be attributed to poor linemates and no powerplay time. If you dive into his numbers, he's rated as our highest WAR player by one model and 5th best by another. Despite this usage, he still put up transition stats in the 80th+ percentile in the league and has the following breakdown of his passing plays: 82nd percentile in on-ice shots that the player contributes too, 79th percentile in weighting of primary shot contribution likelihood of becoming goals/assists, and 92nd percentile in shot assists from behind the net or across the slot.

You're looking at a guy that crushed matchup C minutes with bad linemates and started producing once given minutes. He's slated to be put in a better situation than last season with better linemates and more PP time. He also produces very well with Zuccarello, and the Vesey-Hayes-Zucc line had positive GF%rel and xGF%rel compared to some of his other lines.

I really don't see a situation where having this type of player locked up is a bad thing. He insulates kids like Chytil, Andersson, and Howden and would have been locked up through the duration of his prime for those 5 years. A worse player in Bozak just got $5M AAV with a modified-NTC. I'd much rather have Hayes than overpay someone like that.

You didn’t address my point at all though, since you’re still talking about best-case scenario where Hayes remains the same or even gets better. That’s not the only contingency you plan for.

And more importantly, imagine a scenario where Chytil, Andersson, and Howden (the triumvirate) are all RFAs in 3 years. You really want a $6m center on the roster in addition to Zibanejad? You say “fine, then you trade him at that point.” Except that the draft picks you can get for him THIS year are the players you have on ELCs in the first years of the triumvirate’s second contracts.

If you sign a solid veteran UFA to replace Hayes to a 2 year deal this coming off-season, then that player’s contract is coming off the books at the perfect time, either via deadline trade or via attrition.

So it literally doesn’t matter to me what quality of player Hayes is. I don’t see how he fits the long term planning for this team.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

So you've never made a typo Mr. Perfect?

He's a beat writer. He should get it right. He gets paid to do this

 

[Tawnos]

So you've never made a typo Mr. Perfect?

Real journalists proofread their tweets for spelling errors.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Let's trade for Gusev's rights

 

[Avery16]

Seriously. If he played the full year and his usage was decent, I could even see Lettieri scoring more goals than Jaskin has scored points. I think Lettieri can be like a 20-10 guy down the road.

Eh. Jaskin doesn't move the needle for me. Better than McLeod and maybe Lettieri. But that's it.

And you know that McLeod isn't being moved. So that leaves Lettieri, who they were already set on.

All-in-all, Jaskin wouldn't have done much more for the roster than it already is, IMO.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Lettieri beats Jaskin’s career high in points (18) this season.

Just to be clear on my opinion: Fast>>Lettieri>Jaskin>>McLeod. Jaskin would be good depth for a lot of teams, but we don't really need forward depth right now, and have better, cheaper or younger options at our disposal.

 

[Mac n Gs]

You didn’t address my point at all though, since you’re still talking about best-case scenario where Hayes remains the same or even gets better. That’s not the only contingency you plan for.

And more importantly, imagine a scenario where Chytil, Andersson, and Howden (the triumvirate) are all RFAs in 3 years. You really want a $6m center on the roster in addition to Zibanejad? You say “fine, then you trade him at that point.” Except that the draft picks you can get for him THIS year are the players you have on ELCs in the first years of the triumvirate’s second contracts.

If you sign a solid veteran UFA to replace Hayes to a 2 year deal this coming off-season, then that player’s contract is coming off the books at the perfect time, either via deadline trade or via attrition.

So it literally doesn’t matter to me what quality of player Hayes is. I don’t see how he fits the long term planning for this team.

Ok, and what about if one of those kids don’t make it or just aren’t good enough?

 

[Irishguy42]

Ok, and what about if one of those kids don’t make it or just aren’t good enough?

If? When.

 

[Tawnos]

Ok, and what about if one of those kids don’t make it or just aren’t good enough?

They might not be, but those are the risks of a rebuild Hayes or no and why you keep drafting. It’s also not a chance that’s any different than Hayes declining before an end of the hypothetical 5-year contract anyway.

 

[Tawnos]

If? When.

The rebuild is in serious trouble if any of those guys busts. Just like any rebuild.

Well, unless they get to draft Hughes.

 

[Mac n Gs]

They might not be, but those are the risks of a rebuild Hayes or no and why you keep drafting. It’s also not a chance that’s any different than Hayes declining before an end of the hypothetical 5-year contract anyway.

The other scenario here that we’re ignoring is keeping these kids in the next three years of their ELCs as they’re conceivably getting better, plus having Hayes to round out a really deep F corps.

My issue lay in Gorton shoehorning himself into Hayes only having rental value. If they can offset his loss by bringing in a FA like Panarin, you won’t hear me complain. I’m just wary of pumping the prospects > NHL players trope we see on here, and I’m saying that as somene who incessantly defends Hajek, Howden, and Lias.

 

[Tawnos]

The other scenario here that we’re ignoring is keeping these kids in the next three years of their ELCs as they’re conceivably getting better, plus having Hayes to round out a really deep F corps.

My issue lay in Gorton shoehorning himself into Hayes only having rental value. If they can offset his loss by bringing in a FA like Panarin, you won’t hear me complain. I’m just wary of pumping the prospects > NHL players trope we see on here, and I’m saying that as somene who incessantly defends Hajek, Howden, and Lias.

No I’m with you on that last part. I just think that in a rebuild, that’s what you’re banking on anyway. Having Hayes around isn’t going to change any of that.

It’s admittedly a contradiction. You plan based on worst-case scenarios with your vets. You plan based on best-case scenarios with your prospects. With some hedges of course.

 

[Leetch3]

I'm elaborating on my point before addressing both of your points. The rumored deal for Hayes was 5 years $6M AAV (it's in a Brooks article somewhere). If he agreed to that deal, he's locked into making just $825k more than he is this season. If he remains status quo but gets more minutes this year, I'd bet money that he's going to require $6M+ as a UFA. Buying out that last RFA year and then eating UFA years is the cheaper solution for the long run, and we've seen countless teams do this recently with bigger name players.

Now to both of your points: he's coming off a year where he got incredibly difficult usage and still excelled as a matchup C. His offensive numbers struggled, but that can easily be attributed to poor linemates and no powerplay time. If you dive into his numbers, he's rated as our highest WAR player by one model and 5th best by another. Despite this usage, he still put up transition stats in the 80th+ percentile in the league and has the following breakdown of his passing plays: 82nd percentile in on-ice shots that the player contributes too, 79th percentile in weighting of primary shot contribution likelihood of becoming goals/assists, and 92nd percentile in shot assists from behind the net or across the slot.

You're looking at a guy that crushed matchup C minutes with bad linemates and started producing once given minutes. He's slated to be put in a better situation than last season with better linemates and more PP time. He also produces very well with Zuccarello, and the Vesey-Hayes-Zucc line had positive GF%rel and xGF%rel compared to some of his other lines.

I really don't see a situation where having this type of player locked up is a bad thing. He insulates kids like Chytil, Andersson, and Howden and would have been locked up through the duration of his prime for those 5 years. A worse player in Bozak just got $5M AAV with a modified-NTC. I'd much rather have Hayes than overpay someone like that.

IMO if they had any intention of signing hayes long term he would have been. he was brought back because they wanted to buy time before putting that pressure on chytil/anderson/howden. they hope he has a huge year to up his value but if we sign him for 5-6 years at the end of the year that means something went horribly wrong with the 3 kids. if they were gonna sign him anyway then i'd agree with you but i don't see that happening. and i like hayes i wouldn't complain if they had extended him...

and the risk of locking up anyway is being stuck with that contract for a center who has shown he can't play wing being forced to the wing cause the other centers worked out.