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Speculation: Roster Building Thread Part VIII: Autumn in New York

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Pavel Buchnevich said:
I explained it already. Kreider and Miller are basically even with Zucc right now, and I think its very likely we get two more top 6 wingers out of Buchnevich and Chytil/Andersson (whichever of the two doesn't stay at C, given we already have Zibanejad and Hayes, so it won't be both).
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Maybe Hayes is the one who is not given a contract since Zucc is the better player. LA and Chytil stay at center. I like Buch, but how sure are we that he can be as good as Zucc is right now?
 
Pavel Buchnevich said:
Is he even our best winger right now?

I think I'd take Kreider and Miller over him this season. And those guys are relatively young, Zucc is 30.
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We need 9 wingers not 4. We need 13 forwards not 6. Zooks doesn't have to be the best winger on our team to be an asset to our team. As long as Zooks is an asset as a player than I would like him to be a Ranger. If Zooks scores 60 points next season and Buch scores 120 points they will both be assets to our team. We need as many quality players as possible.
 
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Hire Sather said:
Maybe Hayes is the one who is not given a contract since Zucc is the better player. LA and Chytil stay at center. I like Buch, but how sure are we that he can be as good as Zucc is right now?
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I guess we'll see. I'm not 100% sure what the roster will look like in two years, but thats my initial read of the situation. I'd rather keep Hayes for now due to him being five years younger. People criticize Hayes, but he had 49 points last season. At worst, he's a 2/3C hybrid. And he's only 25. I'm not sure he can't be a good 2C, although that takes some projecting. And on Buchnevich, he was .5PPG last season. If he adds another 10 points per season to that average (and plays a full season), he's a definite top 6 forward. Unless we are expecting absolutely no additional progression from a guy who is 22, I don't know why he wouldn't be a top 6 forward. I think he's a little too far into his progression to not be a top 6 forward, I think its now about whether he's a second line player, 1st line player or better. Anything could happen though, I guess.
 
NickyFotiu said:
We need 9 wingers not 4. We need 13 forwards not 6. Zooks doesn't have to be the best winger on our team to be an asset to our team. As long as Zooks is an asset as a player than I would like him to be a Ranger. If Zooks scores 60 points next season and Buch scores 120 points they will both be assets to our team. We need as many quality players as possible.
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Exactly, I have no problem keeping Zucc because I do think he could help from around 32-35, but if he wants a big contract and logical progressions happen, I think I would make the decision to let him walk.
 
I hope Zucc retire as Rangers. Because it would suck nutbawls if Zucc was on the same line with Auston Matthews in Leafs for example in end of this season, or scored against us. I can understand how some Tampa fans felt it when Martin st. Louis was moved to Rangers some years ago, but in his case it was different.. Because he wanted to be part of the original 6 team as well at the time. Otherwise I`ve nothing to complain about - chill weekend with taco, and Vesey might be a 60 pts. player. I`ll give him some time at least since he is so young, `24`.

I admit it`s hard to speculate on numbers with Vesey though, because if he get 4th line minutes - it will be much harder for him to keep up with total pts. end of this season.
 
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Not that I agree with this, because I think the team needs McDonagh, but if Skjei takes a massive step forward this year, I'm curious if they listen to offers on McDonagh during the summer

I don't know what team would trade for him that needs him and is close to winning. The Jets need a LHD but they aren't close to winning
Maybe St Louis but I don't think they have anything interesting enough to entice me personally.

Also don't know what the package would look like

I'd want a forward that is ready to play, and a 1st round pick to start with. A lot of good D in this upcoming draft

But I want McDonagh to stay so the point is kinda moot :dunno:
 
I believe we still need that sniper though when Nash struggle with consistency or part of the decline process.. I`ve notion we need to aim for a winger in the 2018 summer draft when I look into the future. I`m not sure at the moment what we are going to do with Nash end of this season to be honest. Move him to try to aim for the next generation talent if we miss playoffs?

It`s difficult decisions like that, but a lottery is so random so anything can happen.

I hope you guys are positive about playoffs, because I`m not too certain this year. It`s so hard to evaluate the whole team without a single regular season game with a full NHL lineup.
 
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Machinehead—wasn't McDonagh like top 2 in WAR last season? I know some statistical models have loved him even through the past few seasons. What are you working with, primarily CORSI related stats? Curious to hear how you evaluate him knowing Girardi ruins him cosmetically.

Edit: here's what I'm thinking of

 
Manny's system and other WAR-like measures do something I really don't like.

They factor in on-ice shooting and goaltending as a positive/negative for the player. Manny is a smart guy but I wanna know when the hell we all of a sudden started crediting players for their PDO. That goes against everything the analytics community has done since 2006.

Shea Weber, who is pretty much bad at everything, was one of the GAR leaders only because Career price was Jesus behind him. Weber somehow gets credit for Price making ridiculous saves.

Of course McDonagh rates highly here. He gets a ton of minutes on a team that spams PDO.

If your WAR model doesn't reflect in shots, scoring chances, shot type, shot location, etc in any way, shape, or form, then it's a bad model.

McDonagh rates atrociously in all of those, but I think the jury is still out because of who he's played with.
 
Who he was partnered with also skewed some numbers favorably towards McDonagh.

Impact models showed him as the best player in the league. Impact being expected value vs end results.

But I reached out to the creators of that model and they told me that McDonagh's analysis is flawed. Essentially, his Quality of Teammates is so bad, that he surpasses expected value by not dying.

We don't who Ryan McDonagh is, and we won't know until we see him play not in bizzaro world.
 
Pavel Buchnevich said:
I'd have no problem re-signing him, just don't want to be giving out long-term contracts that extend past like 32, 33, unless its McDonagh, who you have to extend. If he takes like a 3 year year at 4 million, I'd keep him around the team. Otherwise, he can go elsewhere.
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Will this also extend to Buch and Kreider? :)
 
I think this team has a lot of depth. I very much believe they are one Top 6 player away from being dangerous. Whether that is adding a Center or Wing.

Chytil I think will stay past the 9 games but they will want to be careful with him. He could end up being the extra forward come playoff time.
 
Pavel Buchnevich said:
But we have depth at winger, and he's not that good compared to the rest of the league. He's maybe the best winger on the team or second best, but he's like a 60 point player at best, is he even a top 30 winger in the league? And he's likely gonna slow down, so I'm not so sure we need to be paying for a guy who'll likely be our 3rd or 4th best winger by the time his contract is up.
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Since he became a permanent fixture in the lineup in 2013-14, he's 35th in overall scoring and 17th among wingers. Yeah... he's a Top 30 winger.

http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/last-4-nhl-seasons-players-stats.html
 
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