Speculation: Roster Building Thread Part VIII: Autumn in New York

[Pavel Buchnevich]

PB, JT, and Vesey can all improve. Doesn't mean they will all will be better players than Zooks and no team wins with just 3 wingers. Why did we draft Chytil and Anderson as centers just to play them at wing? Anything is possible in 2 years so not much sense debating it all now. If I was Zooks I would announce this is my final year in the last year of his current deal and retire a Ranger.

I'm thinking about this logically.

We have Zibanejad and Hayes at center, both are young. They can be our 1 and 3 centers for the future. One of the two first round picks takes #2, and the other plays wing in the top 6. If Zuccarello is our best winger in two years, we have big winger problems. I've got nothing against him, he's one of our best players right now, but we have a lot of young wingers with high potential, and if a guy who should decline or stay the same (likely not get any better) in the next few years is better than them, we have big problems in our top 6 because certain players will have not progressed.

 

[Machinehead]

Didn't say he was overpaid. He'll be a luxury player in two years, unless Buchnevich, Miller, Vesey don't improve at all. And there's a good chance Chytil or Andersson are also wingers on this team in a few years, so we can count one of them too.

Vesey at his ceiling is nowhere near Zuccarello

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Kreider, Buchnevich, Miller (if he’s not a C) and who will be our other top 4 winger? And don’t say Nash or Grabner.

I think Chytil. Andersson takes 2C.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Vesey at his ceiling is nowhere near Zuccarello

Agree, he's our 5th winger in a few years.

 

[Hire Sather]

Desjardins is still with us as a formality. He doesn’t have another offer and is still suspended.

He served the suspension I believe, either way that doesn't really matter.

I would think we have interest in signing him if he wasn't released from the PTO. It's strange to carry 8 D and 12 F's.

 

[Avery16]

Karlsson
Burns
Doughty
Subban
OEL
Letang
Hedman
Lindholm
Vlasic
Giordano
Brodie
Keith
Slavin
Jones
Niskanen
Krug
Pietrangelo

Ok now that it's in front of me, 17 for sure and a few others are close.

But I could easily chop this list more than in half or multiply it by three.

I don't know who McDonagh is.

I would take ten of those, at most, over McD. Maybe we don’t know what McD is capable of, but it could only be better with Shattenkirk as his partner. Not worse. And he’s better than many of those even with Girardi as a partner.

 

[NickyFotiu]

I'm thinking about this logically.

We have Zibanejad and Hayes at center, both are young. They can be our 1 and 3 centers for the future. One of the two first round picks takes #2, and the other plays wing in the top 6. If Zuccarello is our best winger in two years, we have big winger problems. I've got nothing against him, he's one of our best players right now, but we have a lot of young wingers with high potential, and if a guy who should decline or stay the same (likely not get any better) in the next few years is better than them, we have big problems in our top 6 because certain players will have not progressed.

There is no way to know what will be in 2 years so its useless to debate it. We do not know if Zibs, Hayes, Buch, Vesey, Anderson, Chytill, McD or Zooks will be playing well or even on the Rangers in 2 years. Not every player hits their ceilings. More end up below their ceilings than hitting them. Those players could be traded as well. I will just take one season at a time.

 

[Machinehead]

I would take ten of those, at most, over McD. Maybe we don’t know what McD is capable of, but it could only be better with Shattenkirk as his partner. Not worse. And he’s better than many of those even with Girardi as a partner.

With Girardi as a partner, McDonagh is one of half of the worst pair since the lockout.

I'm already giving him the benefit of the doubt on that.

 

[NickyFotiu]

I would take ten of those, at most, over McD. Maybe we don’t know what McD is capable of, but it could only be better with Shattenkirk as his partner. Not worse. And he’s better than many of those even with Girardi as a partner.

I think McD was playing at top 8-10 level around 2014. I think he dropped to 10-15 level in the last two seasons. Hopefully he is back to the 8-10 level or higher in this upcoming season.

 

[Avery16]

I'm thinking about this logically.

We have Zibanejad and Hayes at center, both are young. They can be our 1 and 3 centers for the future. One of the two first round picks takes #2, and the other plays wing in the top 6. If Zuccarello is our best winger in two years, we have big winger problems. I've got nothing against him, he's one of our best players right now, but we have a lot of young wingers with high potential, and if a guy who should decline or stay the same (likely not get any better) in the next few years is better than them, we have big problems in our top 6 because certain players will have not progressed.

You’re counting on too much. I wouldn’t move Zucc on speculation about what could occur with 5-6 players over two seasons.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

There is no way to know what will be in 2 years so its useless to debate it. We do not know if Zibs, Hayes, Buch, Vesey, Anderson, Chytill, McD or Zooks will be playing well or even on the Rangers in 2 years. Not every player hits their ceilings. More end up below their ceilings than hitting them. Those players could be traded as well. I will just take one season at a time.

I'm not even talking about ceilings here.

Miller scored 3 less points than Zuccarello last season, Kreider scored 6 less, I'd argue they are our two best wingers, but I'm big fans of both, so maybe not, but I think its close between those three. You are right that its a little more unknown with Buch and Chytil, but even if they hit their floors, they are still top 6 players, IMO. I think they are too far to be outright busts. Thats 4 top 6 wingers right there, even if they don't hit a higher ceiling.

And you are right that anything could happen, but I think its likely in a few years that Zucc will not be needed.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

You’re counting on too much. I wouldn’t move Zucc on speculation about what could occur with 5-6 players over two seasons.

I didn't say move him.

I didn't even say I don't want him back. I said that we probably won't need him, so if he's to return, he takes a paycut.

 

[Raspewtin]

I would take ten of those, at most, over McD. Maybe we don’t know what McD is capable of, but it could only be better with Shattenkirk as his partner. Not worse. And he’s better than many of those even with Girardi as a partner.

that's basically what he's saying, no? just going the other direction.

 

[Hire Sather]

I didn't say move him.

I didn't even say I don't want him back. I said that we probably won't need him, so if he's to return, he takes a paycut.

Very optimistic to think we "wont' need" our best winger 2 years from now.

 

[Placid]

so if he's to return, he takes a paycut.

He already did for his current contract, so if he were to be offered an extension, i wouldn't exactly see that as shocking

 

[Mikos87]

You need to give Skjei a 6-7 year deal. You bridge him, you will ruin your cap in two years.

The Rangers as an organization, have had long stemming issues with players and their decline when on retirement money deals, and it's also one of the reasons why they do not use the early extension. If you look at all of the bad contracts they handed out since the turn of the millenia... and boy there have been many... it can be surmised that players end up losing their incentive to perform and stay in shape.

It's a matter of lifestyle and assurances. It's why they were not willing to give term to Shatts. If you're the athlete it's great, but if you're the org... it's a liability in terms of the books, and performance output.

Somehow Rick Nash has been able to dodge that line of criticism... I would say his timing fell in nicely with the Richards, Girardi, and Staal deals. Since the mob it seems can't heckle more than two at a time. Hank is the exception... since... well he's Hank.

But look back at all of the bad contracts... I would say from Holik on down... when players get that 5+ years at over $30MM with the Rangers... what do you all see?

Holik.. Gomez... Drury... Redden... Rosival.. Richards.. Girardi... Staal... I may have missed some others.

Instant decline? Decline after year 1? Year 2?

Ask yourself why that is... and why it's a pattern...

So that is something the brass is well aware of and take into account, and is also one of the reasons why they are going for the 22-29 age range for the core roster, in addition to the physical breakdown of players. In Richards case, the mileage caught up, the game changed and his skating legs weren't good enough to be a primary player... but he had a nice end to his career.. just didn't live up to the contract... the others... they sank quickly. You can say the same with Drury... but he was overvalued to begin with.

 

[Avery16]

I'm not even talking about ceilings here.

Miller scored 3 less points than Zuccarello last season, Kreider scored 6 less, I'd argue they are our two best wingers, but I'm big fans of both, so maybe not, but I think its close between those three. You are right that its a little more unknown with Buch and Chytil, but even if they hit their floors, they are still top 6 players, IMO. I think they are too far to be outright busts. Thats 4 top 6 wingers right there, even if they don't hit a higher ceiling.

And you are right that anything could happen, but I think its likely in a few years that Zucc will not be needed.

MAYBE

that's basically what he's saying, no? just going the other direction.

That’s a reason to give him more money, not less

 

[Avery16]

He already did for his current contract, so if he were to be offered an extension, i wouldn't exactly see that as shocking

I didn't say move him.

I didn't even say I don't want him back. I said that we probably won't need him, so if he's to return, he takes a paycut.

Yeah. Zuccs got a pretty big heart for this city but I think you do that and 99 out of 100 players walk.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Very optimistic to think we "wont' need" our best winger 2 years from now.

Is he even our best winger right now?

I think I'd take Kreider and Miller over him this season. And those guys are relatively young, Zucc is 30.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I expect him to actually be a 1D which he hasn't been for years.

Girardi is a massive factor in that, but McDonagh has to prove it.

How has he not been? Most of the bigger metrics like GAR and other models have him easily as a 1D

 

[Hire Sather]

Is he even our best winger right now?

I think I'd take Kreider and Miller over him this season. And those guys are relatively young, Zucc is 30.

It's a debate that can be had, but with Nash gone, and our two best prospects being Centers, where is the top 6 winger coming from?

Obviously since we're not the NY Mets, rosters change and we will have someone else via trade or FA most likely but its hard to believe Zucc won't be needed.

 

[Mordeth]

Is he even our best winger right now?

I think I'd take Kreider and Miller over him this season. And those guys are relatively young, Zucc is 30.

Well last season he was by points alone. But i would also say he's better in other aspects. He definetly shows more guts then Kreider. Miller is pretty gutsy tho. You have since i can remember always talked "down" Zucc and talked Buch and others "up" more then usual. Not saying its an agenda of yours, but it sure seems like it at times.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Mikos, totally agree on Skjei. Give him somewhere around the Slavin/Lindholm contract with 6-7 years between $4.9-5.5M. His offensive output may sway those numbers

 

[Machinehead]

How has he not been? Most of the bigger metrics like GAR and other models have him easily as a 1D

GAR thinks Weber is good

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

It's a debate that can be had, but with Nash gone, and our two best prospects being Centers, where is the top 6 winger coming from?

Obviously since we're not the NY Mets, rosters change and we will have someone else via trade or FA most likely but its hard to believe Zucc won't be needed.

I explained it already. Kreider and Miller are basically even with Zucc right now, and I think its very likely we get two more top 6 wingers out of Buchnevich and Chytil/Andersson (whichever of the two doesn't stay at C, given we already have Zibanejad and Hayes, so it won't be both).