Roster Building Thread - Part VIII (2023-24 season)

[mas0764]

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Picks 6-15 are only marginally better than the rest of the first round. Top 5 is where the cutoff is (I would argue buoyed by top 2, maybe 3) and we took who we had to with our top 2 picks.

You assuming that we should hit on a pick because it was 7th or 9th is the same thing the Rangers did.

Also proves you really, really need to bottom out for like 3 years.

Even when the Rangers were "rebuilding," and won their lotteries, they were like the 6th-8th worst team.

He's not even that. He's an AHL'er.

I meant we turned Andersson into Cuylle, a bottom 6 player (most likely).

 

[hardnosed]

The injury risk isn't why he shouldn't do it.

He shouldn't do it because he isn't good at it. Ditto Fox.

The PK D should really be Miller-Trouba and Lindgren-Schneider. Lindgren is really the only good PK D that we have but Fox's numbers on the PK are less than good, and thats WITH Lindgren as a partner who has by far the best PK metrics of all the D.

I agree about Fox. However, I have to add that Miller is an absolutely brutal penalty killer

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I agree about Fox. However, I have to add that Miller is an absolutely brutal penalty killer

I don't think any of the D outside of Lindgren graded out particularly well but IIRC he was #2 behind Lindgren of the guys who got regular minutes over the last few seasons.

 

[Machinehead]

Miller graded pretty well on the penalty kill.

If we give up a powerplay goal and you often look up and see 79, it's probably because he's out there with slapnuts all the time.

 

[hardnosed]

I don't think any of the D outside of Lindgren graded out particularly well but IIRC he was #2 behind Lindgren of the guys who got regular minutes over the last few seasons.

Probably has something to do with being teamed with Trouba but Miller manages to get out of position on the PK all the time which is pretty hard to do. I mentioned on here before that I really like Gus but his inclusion in the lineup pretty much means Miller is playing a lot of PK unless you want to go with Lindgren and the 3 RDs. Don't think it comes to that but Miller just isn't a good penalty killer right now. We even used Mik over him late last year and Nemeth over him for a long time.

 

[Machinehead]

Trouba sucks. God damn.

 

[hardnosed]

View attachment 750677

Miller graded pretty well on the penalty kill.

If we give up a powerplay goal and you often look up and see 79, it's probably because he's out there with slapnuts all the time.

View attachment 750678

I did mention in my response that his partner might have something to do with it. Maybe all the running around was to cover. But that pair was horrendous vs the Devil's PP last week.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Trouba sucks. God damn.

I'm shocked his offensive numbers are even that good lol

Detroit was the sucker to take him. That's out the window now after they acquired Jeff Petry.

 

[bleedblue94]

Also, because in a cap world it is a zero-sum game, the more you spend on your goalie the less you have to spend on things that actually matter to winning.

Dealing away your franchise goalie doesn't immediately make you better, it makes you worse, so the "how does this make us better," question is misleading. We all admit it doesn't make you better.

But to get better you need to first free up the space to get good forwards.

But see I don't agree with this in general. There are maybe 5 elite goalies in the league now. Law of averages would say it is more like that a team without one of those goalies wins the cup then a team with one of them, just like law of averages says a team without mcdavid is more likely to win then the one team that has him, and yet everyone would take mcdavid here in a heartbeat.

Goalies like Igor are rare. If you can sign him to a fair deal that isn't a nuclear bomb then you do it. All of this is pointless bc in NYC they aren't letting him walk and it's almost crazy to imagine a franchise trading a franchise goalie when that franchise has been I identified for almost 3 decades by top level/marketable goalies. From a business ops perspective it goes against everything.

 

[will1066]

Trouba sucks. God damn.

Trading for him was a big mistake

 

[Machinehead]

I'm shocked his offensive numbers are even that good lol

He was on the ice a lot when we scored but the other metrics show he wasn't really driving it.

He's like the poster be for me preaching "be more patient." People say "well it's just cap space we'll waste anyway" but we gained nothing bringing him in. He stinks.

 

[Fitzy]

If we played Fox on the PK less we could play him at even strength more and avoid some of these other idiots.

Neither Fox nor Zib should be on the PK. It's so obvious. The difference between having those guys on the ice versus the replacement is much bigger at even strength than on the kill.

 

[mas0764]

Nothing is a foregone conclusion but if we're going to discuss Roster Building, sometimes I wish there was a better understanding that there's a few teams clearly above us and that this is where we're at.

There's this pervasive expectation around the team that I don't get. There's a lot of factors to making a decision on Igor, but the idea that we're in the midst of this huge window of opportunity shouldn't be one of them. We're not one of the favorites.

If we were, I would say f*** 2026 and onward and just win the Cup. We're not in that place.

Well said. We are not truly one of the core contenders that some poster pointed out the other day makes up the pre-season group that wins the vast majority of the Cups.

I think people have the wrong idea because we went to the Conference finals two years ago. That run was every bit as flukey at least as it was that we went out in the first round. The truth is that we are kind of a second round caliber team who is heavily dependent on matchups to advance and we are facing significant enough odds to win multiple rounds in a row where we are outmatched on paper, that it is straight foolish to be hoping for it. It could happen, yes, but those odds are like 1:15 or 1:20.

Better odds to suffer now for a little longer and you CAN, in fact, construct a team that can get into the conversation where the odds are like 1:5. Much better chance of coming out as champions if you can take 2-3 rolls of the 1 in 5 dice than the 1 in 15 dice.

 

[Machinehead]

Trading for him was a big mistake

The only good thing about that was getting rid of this shit stain.

Legitimately one of the all-time worst regulars at playing defense.

 

[effen]

Trouba, like a lot of guys with bad acceleration, looks better and better the more structured a system is.

He's looked and played like shit playing D on a team whos preferred defensive style is less strong side overload and more schoolyard bullshit. That changes this year.

 

[Machinehead]

What gets me about the Kakko scratch is that Rooney arguably cost us game 5 because he handles the puck worse than most college players, and Gallant was like "I'm going to scratch somebody to make sure we have that in game 6!"

 

[mas0764]

First your chart shows only making the nhl. Not becoming a star or HOF, which is more relevant.

Second 6-15 are lunpred together. I would assume 6-10 are better than 11-15. By virtue of picking earlier.

Third. I never assumed that we should hit on a pick. I said good teams DO hit on those picks far more than miss.

If we went 2/2 on laff and kakko becoming all stars we are not having this conversation. Similarly if hughes and hirshc sucked the devils would still be terrible and if or hedman and stamkos sucked those teams would not have won.

My entire point is that we are in this situation bc we went 0/4 in the top 10 and 0/2 in top 2 so far.

It’s s not because we “rushed” the rebuild . Its bc our picks did not pan out. Though i still have hope for kakko and laf. And weirdly enough if they do become stars than we are right there at the top of the pack.

It would almost be like you have to have stars when you pick top 5 to succeed. How odd is that?

If you go 0-4 picking in the top 10 then you have to stay there and keep picking.

 

[bernmeister]

I have no inside info on this but I keep thinking to myself that IF nyr move laffy there are a couple ideal locations to send him:
chicago
anaheim
san jose
arizona
vancouver

If nyr trade laffy he is not going to end up in the east, he certainly wont be traded to the habs (gorts afftect) or even ottawa (not sending him there to listen to how ott has 3 of top 5 picks from that draft and rub it in their faces nationally).

it would absolutely be an out west trade and i keep looking at the ducks with their tons of elite young d men and space for young forward talent on the wings.

i doubt they would send him to chicago and with all the hype around bedard for risk of the optics there (hawks will now be a national spotlight team).

san jose has very little to offer although the drury grier connection could help get something done.

bill armstrong wouldnt absolute work drury over in a deal so i dont see that as a winnable situation.

with vancouver i have no idea what of value they could send back to us unless pettersen wont resign there and we do something nutty like schneider, laffy and something else significant (would trocheck waive) for his rights but then the cap starts saying hello and we are boxed into a mess and would also need to free more cash to replace schneider (who has also been seen as a possible trouba replacement if we move him, so it becomes a bigger hole).

what a mess this has become. 1oa pick should be a blessing and instead it's a circus...

general agree, I calculate EDM as best fit.
LaF demonstrates a trigger.
Possible match w/McD, Drai
If the currency is mutually good, that works.

Also, literally nobody said trade Shesterkin.

People are saying don't give Shesterkin $12m going into 2026.

bern is not nobody, not for nothing
I have said so not for sake of doing a deal for sake of making a deal, but if useful return can be had.
Shesty will go short 8-8.5 1-2 yrs then want 10+, IMO

Panarin and Trouba have value IMO and are moveable. Zibs we're stuck with.

There's always some sucker GM. The biggest move is to get rid of Trouba next offseason. He will fall off FAST imo. He already can't move.... that's not going to get better.

bread is NOT moveable UNLESS certain facts/#s that make sense apply.
He KNOWS he will not get new offer, let alone anything near 10+ from us, so he will accept, imo, relocation to contender w/enuf upside.

What makes sense on paper is bread at a hair mo $ per but is less term and younger than Doughty who has 1 mo yr at 11 per.
LA maybe due to cap mgmt planning, and possibility of more productive Fs -> scoring.
What is key there is if, w/Carlson, Zegras + MacTavish, can Strome be sent to Kings for min?
Strome + bread reunited, likely pushes maybe leaning yes to solid yes.

of course ny rolls Fox/Doughty/Schneid and uses Trouba at 4RW for 1 yr before dealing to DET, w/Rempe bone crushing 4C

Why is it one or the other? Why can't it be a balance of both?

Why can't we have a Marchasseault?

it's still 2 seasons away. We have ALL the talent to win imo. Do we have the will to win? who knows.

issue imo is not will.
It is talent and ability to match up vs opponents who do not negate our strengths while we negate theirs

We're here now and locked into the core. I would ride it out with Shesterkin and let him walk. We've seen before that goalies return disappointing assets anyway.

Hell no
get top top $ for him NOW
don't be stupid and do what we did w/Buch, wait until there was not even min term but zero term, only rfa rights

Dealing NOW w/more term for reasonable cap = best return.

Trading for him was a big mistake

Acquiring in a vacuum was not a mistake. Agree, TRADING instead of waiting out was a waste of a 20OA 1st.
But the real transgression here is how we frequently give out nmcs.
That has to stop, no exceptions. none

 

[bernmeister]

Trouba, like a lot of guys with bad acceleration, looks better and better the more structured a system is.

He's looked and played like shit playing D on a team whos preferred defensive style is less strong side overload and more schoolyard bullshit. That changes this year.

this is why if we had mo RD ready, we could shift Trouba to 4RW = less skating demands

 

[I Eat Crow]

this is why if we had mo RD ready, we could shift Trouba to 4RW = less skating demands

I'm unironically in favor of this. He can't be any worse at it than he is at defense.

 

[Ruggs225]

If you go 0-4 picking in the top 10 then you have to stay there and keep picking.

The problem with that is you dont know if you 0-4 until at least 2-4 years later. Its not like colorado said we hit on some picks we can now pick outside the top 10. Its because they hit on their picks that they stopped picking that high.

And again, we had 2 generational goaltenders, a budding star in Zib, and a superstar who wanted to play for us, another really good dman Who wanted to play for us, and then maybe a future hOF dman who wanted to play for us. In fact right before COVId happened we had the best record in the NHL in 2020 i believe. We were on f***ing fire and quinn had this team playing so well that gallant could only dream of having that cohesiveness. Which is why Kreider wasnt traded unfortunately.

This isnt normal for any other team outside of toronto.

You take advantage when you can. And we did. And none of those guys were over 30, and all but panarin hadnt even entered their primes.

Getting the #1 overall pick was supposed to be the cherry on top. Instead we went 0-4 maybe.

And if kakko or laf take the hit jump this year than we will go far and all those other moves will look great.

Our failure literally is because of laf and kakko not producing at even a top 5 level let alone top 1 & 2.

They were both labeled sure fire superstars at draft time. They were unanimous picks. It is those very reasons why the team rightly started to go for it. Bc if they were superstars we are talking mini dynasty with what else we had.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Neither Fox nor Zib should be on the PK. It's so obvious. The difference between having those guys on the ice versus the replacement is much bigger at even strength than on the kill.

I wouldn't have a problem with the on the PK if either of them were good at it.

They've been burning minutes on those guys doing things they aren't good at.

 

[will1066]

general agree, I calculate EDM as best fit.
LaF demonstrates a trigger.
Possible match w/McD, Drai
If the currency is mutually good, that works.




bern is not nobody, not for nothing
I have said so not for sake of doing a deal for sake of making a deal, but if useful return can be had.
Shesty will go short 8-8.5 1-2 yrs then want 10+, IMO



bread is NOT moveable UNLESS certain facts/#s that make sense apply.
He KNOWS he will not get new offer, let alone anything near 10+ from us, so he will accept, imo, relocation to contender w/enuf upside.

What makes sense on paper is bread at a hair mo $ per but is less term and younger than Doughty who has 1 mo yr at 11 per.
LA maybe due to cap mgmt planning, and possibility of more productive Fs -> scoring.
What is key there is if, w/Carlson, Zegras + MacTavish, can Strome be sent to Kings for min?
Strome + bread reunited, likely pushes maybe leaning yes to solid yes.

of course ny rolls Fox/Doughty/Schneid and uses Trouba at 4RW for 1 yr before dealing to DET, w/Rempe bone crushing 4C



issue imo is not will.
It is talent and ability to match up vs opponents who do not negate our strengths while we negate theirs



Hell no
get top top $ for him NOW
don't be stupid and do what we did w/Buch, wait until there was not even min term but zero term, only rfa rights

Dealing NOW w/more term for reasonable cap = best return.


Acquiring in a vacuum was not a mistake. Agree, TRADING instead of waiting out was a waste of a 20OA 1st.
But the real transgression here is how we frequently give out nmcs.
That has to stop, no exceptions. none

I think i understand you for the first time for the last time, bern.

 

[haohmaru]

I meant we turned Andersson into Cuylle, a bottom 6 player (most likely).

Ah, gotcha. Honestly, that's about what I expected, erroneously, from Andersson (3C).

 

[Machinehead]

Neither Fox nor Zib should be on the PK. It's so obvious. The difference between having those guys on the ice versus the replacement is much bigger at even strength than on the kill.

This is why my top three penalty killers would always be the 4th line.

Being "good" at the PK is marginal at every position but goaltending.