Speculation: Roster Building Thread Part VII: Now with less frenzy!
- Thread starter Gardner McKay
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pld459666
Registered User
I think the rebuilding is going to be complete in 2-3 years.
I think the actual competing will start in 3-5 years.
I think this season and 19-20 are going to be pretty bad. I think 20-21 and beyond is when we start making the climb back up the standings.
In my estimation, we are looking, conservatively speaking of course, at 4 years before we are really competitive again.
I have no desire to move what Ottawa will want in a trade and I'm not convinced that EK65 will be the same player in 4 years that he is today.
At this point, unless it's an absolute no brainer, I just dont see the point of a potential acquisition.
I mean, I'm not going to ignore the player he is today, I just dont think hes going to be that same player when we actually need him to be.
I think the actual competing will start in 3-5 years.
I think this season and 19-20 are going to be pretty bad. I think 20-21 and beyond is when we start making the climb back up the standings.
In my estimation, we are looking, conservatively speaking of course, at 4 years before we are really competitive again.
I have no desire to move what Ottawa will want in a trade and I'm not convinced that EK65 will be the same player in 4 years that he is today.
At this point, unless it's an absolute no brainer, I just dont see the point of a potential acquisition.
I mean, I'm not going to ignore the player he is today, I just dont think hes going to be that same player when we actually need him to be.
Off Sides
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- Sep 8, 2008
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I am a timeline person, if it were me,
I think they will be ready to compete in the first years after the 2017 and 2018 prospects end their entry level deals which kind of coincides with the expiring contracts of Lundqvist, Shattenkirk, Staal, Smith. So about 2021, 22, 23 would be my turning point years where I am seriously looking at getting into and advancing in the playoffs. Would also be about the time the buyout cap hit is gone. And should be within the first couple years of a new CBA.
I think at that point most of the draftees from 2017, 18, 19 along with the prospects they received back in trade over that time period will more of less have made it or not and there is still more coming up behind.
In the mean time, I kind of would just be selling off stuff, buying short term stuff that maybe could be sold or used to shelter, mentor, extending the players I thought could make it through all that in their prime, basically what they have been doing since last trade deadline.
If by that point nothing really good has developed, or if it has, they'll have cap space to (and/or/combination of ) re-sign them, add to that grouping from UFA as necessary, and would also have many positive trade assets. Basically by then they either have developed a Cup contention core and they can supplement it, or if not, they can try to sign or trade for missing parts because they have a ton of positive assets, in either case they have options which I assume turns into a little from all those categories.
I think they will be ready to compete in the first years after the 2017 and 2018 prospects end their entry level deals which kind of coincides with the expiring contracts of Lundqvist, Shattenkirk, Staal, Smith. So about 2021, 22, 23 would be my turning point years where I am seriously looking at getting into and advancing in the playoffs. Would also be about the time the buyout cap hit is gone. And should be within the first couple years of a new CBA.
I think at that point most of the draftees from 2017, 18, 19 along with the prospects they received back in trade over that time period will more of less have made it or not and there is still more coming up behind.
In the mean time, I kind of would just be selling off stuff, buying short term stuff that maybe could be sold or used to shelter, mentor, extending the players I thought could make it through all that in their prime, basically what they have been doing since last trade deadline.
If by that point nothing really good has developed, or if it has, they'll have cap space to (and/or/combination of ) re-sign them, add to that grouping from UFA as necessary, and would also have many positive trade assets. Basically by then they either have developed a Cup contention core and they can supplement it, or if not, they can try to sign or trade for missing parts because they have a ton of positive assets, in either case they have options which I assume turns into a little from all those categories.
SA16
Sixstring
Really don't see how his health is a gamble when he's played 70+ games every season except one fluke injury and then this year put up similar numbers as usual despite coming back much faster than expected from offseason surgery. Feels like just a random criticism of him. He's not a good with a large injury history.
Fitzy
Very Stable Genius
- Jan 29, 2009
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I think we'll have a better idea of what the team needs to sign in free agency by the end of the season. We'll know a lot more about which of our 19+ year old prospects look like NHL caliber players.
Good teams make targeted trades and signings to augment weaknesses in their lineups. It's usually wingers too (Hossa, Kessel, ect)
Guys like Miller and the swedish blueliner are a different story, but you get the idea.
Good teams make targeted trades and signings to augment weaknesses in their lineups. It's usually wingers too (Hossa, Kessel, ect)
Guys like Miller and the swedish blueliner are a different story, but you get the idea.
NYR Viper
Registered User
As I have said many times, the Rangers should be interested in Panarin, Seguin and Karlsson, but they don't need to back up the truck to do so. If Karlsson is looking for $13m, big pass. If Panarin is looking at $8.5-9m? I'd be interested.
It all has to do with the contract request and what they would settle for.
It all has to do with the contract request and what they would settle for.
He had 1/2 the bone in his ankle removed last year. He'll be 29 later this year. He's averaged about 27 minutes a night in his 9 year career.
Love him as a player. Won't love him on our team for 7 X 12M though. He's played through many injuries if you've followed him throughout his career as well, which I respect... But those injuries catch up eventually.
If this team isn't a legit contender until let's say, 2021, that means we'll have a 31~32 year old Dmen. We would have paid him 36M. And he'd still have 4 years left on his term. With a NMC. EK is not signing cheap, and he's going to want assurance that he'll play where he wants.
This is a monster contract that has serious concerns. Why do we want that right now as a rebuilding team?
SA16
Sixstring
Because I don't see it as having any greater risk than any other long term deal and if you never look to sign any top players that's how you get stuck in the middle indefinitely (barring you get extremely lucky and hit the number 1 pick which the rangers odds are likely around 5% to do so).
I think he's lower risk than most other long term deals personally.
I think he's lower risk than most other long term deals personally.
What else other than the ankle?
He had the Achilles injury 5 years ago (no longer even a factor) and the ankle surgery he had last season requires about an extra year to really get up to speed (which means he did what he did last year with out any camp and at like 80%)
I don't want the contract right now. They need this season to really suss out what they have internally before looking to add from the outside (which it looks like they're planning on doing.) What I do know is that they probably do not have a top pair RHD and they with out a doubt do not have the best D in the game.
I think there is a line to be drawn in the sand as far as contract negotiations go with him or anyone else, but to stay clear of him if he gets to UFA would be the wrong move IMO.
We'll be able to squeeze out quality at LD with all the bodies we have. Lundkvist, DeAngelo, Pionk and Keane all have promise, but thats all we have on the right side in the organization that is really worth talking about (Well shatty too, but I don't know how much of a long term option he is for us.)
How is he a lower risk?
How many contracts have you seen given out in the NHL over the last 10~ years for players that were 28+ that teams didn't regret after a few years?
Ankle/Achilles/Heel injuries. He also declined to play for Sweden in the 2015's WC but I can't remember what the injury was. For an offensive dmen that has had repeated foot-related injuries, I'd say there are some red flags there.
Even if he didn't have those injuries, I'd still be skeptical of giving a player who's going to be 29 at the start of next year a massive contract.
haveandare
Registered User
Yeah I kind of agree with this, though I feel less strongly about it than you do.
Yes, he's an elite player, yes he's arguably the best d in the league for the last few years. But is that history blinding people to his age and the exhaustive list of players given retirement deals at that age who didn't work out?
Is it really that unlikely that we've seen peak Karlsson?
Werent the ankle and heel ones basically one injury that led to the other which led to the major surgery he had last year?
Or were they separate? I don't remember. The Achilles thing was a complete freak accident so I don't really throw that one up there with the others.
The miles are a bit of a concern, but I don't think they're that big of an issue. If we look at a guy like Duncan Keith (who has logged crazy minutes+ had multiple deep playoff runs) he didn't really start to slow down until last year, and that may have been an aberration.
Keith is no Pronger, but he plays a more abrasive game than EK. I know that comparisons like this aren't an exact science, but it's something to consider.
I don't remember either, but again, injuries aside, I wouldn't want anything to do with a double-digit contract for 7 years for a player that will undoubtedly start regressing at some point in that contract. Gorton has done a good job of avoiding idiotic long-term signings with handicapping movement clauses.
Now, I don't feel the same way about a guy like Panarin. I'm not opposed to every potential UFA out there. Panarin has been healthy, he's also younger, and he hasn't had serious injuries like EK. If Gorton was going to make a splash in free agency next season, I'd be more comfortable with a guy like him over EK.
EK is exactly the kind of signing that would remind me of what Sather used to do. It's very tempting, but the risk isn't worth the reward imo.
I also don't know why EK would want to come here. I'm sure other teams would outbid us, and are likely to compete for a cup before us.
Beer League Sniper
Homeless Man's Rick Nash
Karlsson, Panarin, and Seguin are all elite players. This isn't a Richards, Drury, Redden, Holik-type situation.
Every team in the league has guys that they overpay. Every team that has won the cup in the salary cap era has had a couple bad contracts each. It's not the end of the world as long as it's not too widespread. I'd rather overpay a million or two to difference-makers.
I also think that the impact of these players is being a little understated. They are able to produce in the face of tough competition, AND push other players down the depth chart, into positions in which they can succeed.
Looking at Karlsson, for example. Yes, he's going to get a huge contract. But, he's orders of magnitude better than our best defenseman right now (Skjei or Shattenkirk). He also pushes Shattenkirk down to the second pair, where he's much more likely to feast on the quality of competition he'll see there, versus the top competition he'd see on the first pair.
Karlsson
Shattenkirk
Smith/Pionk/DeAngelo
is worlds better than
Shattenkirk
Smith
Pionk/DeAngelo
Elite players have positive ripple effects throughout the lineup, and throughout the course of games and playoff series. I'm not advocating trading away the farm for these guys, but it's an absolute no-brainer to throw a dump truck full of money at them if they hit UFA.
Every team in the league has guys that they overpay. Every team that has won the cup in the salary cap era has had a couple bad contracts each. It's not the end of the world as long as it's not too widespread. I'd rather overpay a million or two to difference-makers.
I also think that the impact of these players is being a little understated. They are able to produce in the face of tough competition, AND push other players down the depth chart, into positions in which they can succeed.
Looking at Karlsson, for example. Yes, he's going to get a huge contract. But, he's orders of magnitude better than our best defenseman right now (Skjei or Shattenkirk). He also pushes Shattenkirk down to the second pair, where he's much more likely to feast on the quality of competition he'll see there, versus the top competition he'd see on the first pair.
Karlsson
Shattenkirk
Smith/Pionk/DeAngelo
is worlds better than
Shattenkirk
Smith
Pionk/DeAngelo
Elite players have positive ripple effects throughout the lineup, and throughout the course of games and playoff series. I'm not advocating trading away the farm for these guys, but it's an absolute no-brainer to throw a dump truck full of money at them if they hit UFA.
Beer League Sniper
Homeless Man's Rick Nash
I couldn't disagree more with this statement. Karlsson is a generational D. No one Sather signed in UFA was anywhere close to the talent that Karlsson is. They were all "borderline" first liners.
I Eat Crow
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I want Karlsson but I don't want him here on a 7 year deal. I'd see if he'd sign a shorter term deal a la Shattenkirk. If this is another Shattenkirk type of situation as @Siddi has implied, Karlsson will take less money and term to come here.
Money isn't everything. Lifestyle matters a lot to some players.
Money isn't everything. Lifestyle matters a lot to some players.
And this is what my issue is with signing EK. It doesn't matter if he's our best dmen right now. Right now does not matter. We're not a cup contending team, even with EK on our roster. We're not a contender next season, either, although we might flirt with the playoffs.
I'm looking down the road with EK, cause that's when it'll matter. Again, in 3 years, he'll be 31~32 years old.
He's averaged about 27M a night for almost a decade. I wouldn't have the same concerns with guys like Panarin. EK just scares the **** out of me.
But so what? Why is it a no-brainer? This team is NOT contending for the Cup at least for the next 2-3 years. Would he make a difference? Of course he would, but to what magnitude? Instead of being a bottom-feeder, he nudges the team more towards the middle? Still mediocre.
Might as well save the cap space for when the Rangers are ready to compete. EK is not signing a 4 year deal. He is looking at a 7-8 year deal. There is no need to tie the cap up that way. This team isn't a "one player away" team.
silverfish
got perma'd
I think the point is if we're signing EK or Panarin or Seguin, that "2-3" year made up window goes out the window and the team will be back to trying to compete next season.
I think that sometimes you have to look at a contract a little differently along with the player you’re getting.
Whoever signs EK @ 7-8 years has to be in the right situation.
If you have a legit chance to contend, then maybe you look at that contract and think, it just might be worth paying for those extra years and in paying for them, they are just apart of the overall price tag in order to play the next 4 years with one of the best D-men in the game.
If he still plays well toward the end of the contract then that’s just icing on the cake.
However when you look at the NYR current situation and while he will easily improve the team, it most likely isn’t worth paying for that type of contract since the rest of the equation is too far off from completion..
Whoever signs EK @ 7-8 years has to be in the right situation.
If you have a legit chance to contend, then maybe you look at that contract and think, it just might be worth paying for those extra years and in paying for them, they are just apart of the overall price tag in order to play the next 4 years with one of the best D-men in the game.
If he still plays well toward the end of the contract then that’s just icing on the cake.
However when you look at the NYR current situation and while he will easily improve the team, it most likely isn’t worth paying for that type of contract since the rest of the equation is too far off from completion..
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