Speculation: Roster Building Thread LXXXV: Sell some now, buy some later

[DutchShamrock]

A lot of highly drafted players start their careers on very bad teams, and they are given lots of ice time, both 5 on 5 and on the PP, right out of the gate because those teams don't have better options. With the Rangers, Kakko and Laf have been more sheltered. They haven't gotten as much ice time as many of their peers. Now this is where someone makes the argument that they should get more ice time, but people forget that there are 21 other players on this team, all who want to win. Should we cut Kreider's ice time because we want to force feed minutes to Laf? Should Buchnevich play less to accommodate Kakko?

It seems like a lot a fans care more about how many points Kakko and Laf score than they do about the team winning. Yes, this is a development year, but part of development is teaching players how to win, not just how to score points. Kakko and Laf getting more points might make some people feel better about them, but it would be a mirage. Look at the progress Buchnevich has made. He is a complete player now, and he is scoring more than ever. It took a lot of time and patience, but he has finally become the player we all hoped he could be. Players who score a lot but are completely deficient in all other areas of the game are fool's gold. Case in point, Ryan Strome. He still has his warts, but he is a much more complete player today than he was when he put up 50 points in his 1st full year with the Islanders. Having the next McDavid or Draisaitl is great, but how much does it really help if they are lazy on the back check and leaving the defensive zone early to try to generate more offense? Ovechkin has been putting up ridiculous numbers for years, but it wasn't until Trotz came along and instilled a more defensive mindset into the team that they actually won a cup.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Good defense leads to good offense. Teams can still score a lot without playing good defense, but they aren't going to win a lot, at least not when it really matters. That's exactly why Toronto hasn't been able to get out of the first round for the last number of years. Great offense which results in a lot of regular season wins, but no commitment to playing defense. Talent is talent. It's going to shine through no matter what. Playing good defense puts players in a better position to use that talent.

This is a really good, objective take that removes the reason to panic.

My personal concern isn't rooted to point production though. I see some guys that were assertive and dominant pre-draft that then looked reserved and unconfident. Passing from the slot to a player in coverage. Low percentage, safe plays. Handling the puck like a 4th liner. Then you hear Kakko say he forgot how to play because he was told to do things this way, which conflicted with his recipe to success. Telling us he had no confidence.

The points are a symptom, but its hard to be confident when these guys look so out of place. But I think the chatter around Quinn and development died out from the consensus recently and its really just a vocal minority. Kakko looks completely different since the first handful of games. Lafreniere looked good since his got a spell with Zibanejad and Buchnevich. Patience is building up again.

I agree with your post a lot, but I think we shouldn't totally boil down the concerned group to some stat watchers.

 

[Off Sides]

name the last time we had a prospects that we wanted to sign and couldn't? the last one i can think of is rj umberger in 2004 and we only had his rights for a couple months before he could walk.

While that is true, if one is trading something more valuable than say a couple 2nd round picks for him it's probably a good idea to ask for permission to talk to him prior to see what his plans are, or would be post trade, no?

 

[NYR Viper]

Yes the kid that Edmonton wanted for themselves and have no reason to change their minds.

Wouldn't this line be used for every prospect ever drafted who was then subsequently traded at some point?

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Wouldn't this line be used for every prospect ever drafted who was then subsequently traded at some point?

when was the last time a team traded a highly touted 1st round pick less than a year later? Have to go back to that awful, awful Forsberg - Erat deal in 2013.

 

[Fitzy]

If you're going to take a goalie in the first round because you don't like any of the players you should just trade the pick.

Maybe, depends on the return. Shesterkin is going to be 26 next season.

In theory, if NYR draft the next Cam Talbot and he blows up just as Shesty is getting ready for a huge contract, you can rotate forward to save cap space.

I know that the prevailing attitude has been that Shesty will be here for the next decade ala Hank 2.0 but it doesn't necessarily have to be that way.

 

[Savant]

Wouldn't this line be used for every prospect ever drafted who was then subsequently traded at some point?

Maybe? But back to the Broberg example too; how many times do we “know (on good authority)” that the exact deal was turned down already. We “know (on good authority)” that the Buchnevich for EDM 1st has been out there for years and they turned it down every time. Why would they revisit it when the player that that chose to rather have has increased their stock. It doesn’t make sense. Edmonton isn’t doing that. Edmonton probably also would rather have the guy with more team control because it’s harder for them to get FAs too.

 

[DutchShamrock]

My personal opinion is that there have been games where I would have said either one. Kakko in the ~2 weeks or so pre-Covid was the best sustained stretch I saw from either. Lafreniere in the Bruins 6-2 win in my memory stands out as one of the better individual performances.

Kakko looks like a player who you will want on your team for a long time with his ability to strip pucks, get the play going in the other direction, and work the puck in the offensive zone. He will be a real problem for opposing defensemen's endurance throughout a game. However I am not fully convinced that he will be an elite offensive player at this stage. He has had moments. But right now he is not dangerous enough on the rush with the puck and not consistently good at putting himself in position for scoring opportunities in the offensive zone.

Lafreniere looks like he needs a summer with Prentiss and to play more instinctually. He is late on reads a lot and it is probably a mixture of not having mature NHL conditioning as well as the game being too fast for him, as well as possibly being asked to nail the details of positioning to a high degree and therefore him spending too much time thinking. However he has definitely flashed some really high end ability so I am optimistic that his current issues can be overcome.

I'm hoping Kakko can follow the Buchnevich curve on the offensive side. Get stronger, experienced and confident in working in traffic. Work his way in from a perimeter player to someone who can produce below the dots. That's what I see between them in their first seasons in the league.

Kakko this year is playing better than Buch, without the puck, in his second season. The "Hossa" two way player template has been invoked before. If Kakko can score at Buchnevich's rate while playing as a star two way forward, that's a huge draft pick. I can't imagine a player with his vision, anticipation and hockey sense won't put up points consistent with a top 6 wing (assuming his trajectory continues).

 

[NYR Viper]

Maybe? But back to the Broberg example too; how many times do we “know (on good authority)” that the exact deal was turned down already. We “know (on good authority)” that the Buchnevich for EDM 1st has been out there for years and they turned it down every time. Why would they revisit it when the player that that chose to rather have has increased their stock. It doesn’t make sense. Edmonton isn’t doing that. Edmonton probably also would rather have the guy with more team control because it’s harder for them to get FAs too.

So in theory, they could see their team as a true contender and like the development a guy like Buch has gone through as well and the fit with their current team.

 

[Fitzy]

Kakko this year is playing better than Buch, without the puck, in his second season. The "Hossa" two way player template has been invoked before. If Kakko can score at Buchnevich's rate while playing as a star two way forward, that's a huge draft pick. I can't imagine a player with his vision, anticipation and hockey sense won't put up points consistent with a top 6 wing (assuming his trajectory continues).

If he rounds out his game, Jere Lethinen comparisons abound.

I'm intrigued to see if and when he gets put on the penalty kill.

 

[Synergy27]

The topic is more popular on here compared to what I’m hearing league-wide or even when taking into account the broader social media and fan base spectrum.

I’m not trying to tell you how to feel. I’m just pointing out that as of right now it’s not as hot of a topic elsewhere as it is on here.

I’m genuinely not trying to be pedantic here, but isn’t this to be expected? This is a site devoted to prospect discussion first and foremost. You’d expect this place to naturally select for people who are interested in having in depth conversations about the day to day progress of these kids.

I think what you are alluding to is that the conversation being had here is unsophisticated. I very much disagree. The people here that are expressing concern aren’t weekend warriors looking at box scores the day after a game - they are passionate, educated fans that are heavily invested in the progress of these players.

I know that you aren’t trying to tell me how to feel, I’m just not sure what conclusions are to be drawn from what you are saying other than people outside of HFNYR aren’t really talking much about Ranger prospects.

 

[Edge]

I’m genuinely not trying to be pedantic here, but isn’t this to be expected? This is a site devoted to prospect discussion first and foremost. You’d expect this place to naturally select for people who are interested in having in depth conversations about the day to day progress of these kids.

I think what you are alluding to is that the conversation being had here is unsophisticated. I very much disagree. The people here that are expressing concern aren’t weekend warriors looking at box scores the day after a game - they are passionate, educated fans that are heavily invested in the progress of these players.

I know that you aren’t trying to tell me how to feel, I’m just not sure what conclusions are to be drawn from what you are saying other than people outside of HFNYR aren’t really talking much about Ranger prospects.

It's not unsophisticated, it's just unique onto itself. And it's not a conversation being had by teams, or more specifically scouts or those who tend to follow prospects.

No more.

No less.

And I mention it because there are a lot of comments such as "surely X's player value is lowered" or "why isn't there more pressure on Quinn" or "Why aren't the Rangers doing X."

And the short answer is that they just don't tend to view it the same way. And so I explain why, and then people say, "But what about this?" to which I reply "It's just not really a topic of concern at this time."

So as I said a few times, it's a hard gap to bridge. It's like trying to explain why one person has apprehension about a person or situation and another doesn't.

 

[Savant]

So in theory, they could see their team as a true contender and like the development a guy like Buch has gone through as well and the fit with their current team.

And also in theory they could be getting Forsberg for Erat comps. Go ask the Edmonton fans how they feel about it and report back.

 

[kovazub94]

Note a comment made by @Edge regarding potentially sacrificing talent for a bit more sandpaper.

Trent Frederic is a bit more sandpaper and would be a great compliment to the LaFrenier / Kakko / Chytil / Kraavtsov's on the world not to mention Panarin and Mika for however long he is here.

Obviously it's not a 1:1 type of trade, but if the Rangers were to pry both Studnicka and Frederic from Boston for Buch and a Howden or something else, that's not a bad exchange.

Well, it also is widely acknowledged that the Rangers need to improve its quality at center too. So between the options of building a package around Buchnevich to address this C need vs. sandpaper for the bottom lines, I'd personally prefer the former.

 

[leetch99]

Note a comment made by @Edge regarding potentially sacrificing talent for a bit more sandpaper.

Trent Frederic is a bit more sandpaper and would be a great compliment to the LaFrenier / Kakko / Chytil / Kraavtsov's on the world not to mention Panarin and Mika for however long he is here.

Obviously it's not a 1:1 type of trade, but if the Rangers were to pry both Studnicka and Frederic from Boston for Buch and a Howden or something else, that's not a bad exchange.

Throw Tony in that direction as well and see if we can get the two kids back from them . I like Fredeich...he seems to play a lot of C for them as well . He will add another 20 pounds on soon enough and be a real PITA to play against .

 

[Kovalev27]

Can we talk about Filip Chytil for a min?

this 21 year old kid isn’t going to be 22 for another 6 or 7 months big strong and WHEELS for days.

he’s on an 82 game pace of 46 points while missing 4-6 weeks with Covid akd a broken hand

AND he gets basically ZERO PP time.

He’s a 60 pt center minimum if he ever gets any real pp time in his career

do we seriously not see him as the legit 2C heir apparent?

we very well might be smarter to just keep our own centers and stay away from a big ticket.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

Throw Tony in that direction as well and see if we can get the two kids back from them . I like Fredeich...he seems to play a lot of C for them as well . He will add another 20 pounds on soon enough and be a real PITA to play against .

Frederic is down for a while, folks....

NO ORGANIZATION, including Boston, WANTS nothing to do with DeAngelo..... if you thought Sports Radio in NY was bad, Boston is way worse media-wise

 

[bl02]

Can we talk about Filip Chytil for a min?

this 21 year old kid isn’t going to be 22 for another 6 or 7 months big strong and WHEELS for days.

he’s on an 82 game pace of 46 points while missing 4-6 weeks with Covid akd a broken hand

AND he gets basically ZERO PP time.

He’s a 60 pt center minimum if he ever gets any real pp time in his career

do we seriously not see him as the legit 2C heir apparent?

we very well might be smarter to just keep our own centers and stay away from a big ticket.

And he better get used to no pp time.
but seriously this kid has serious tools and as time goes on the tool box as well. Just hope the continue to be patient and keep him stable at center. None of this wing crap

 

[pld459666]

Well, it also is widely acknowledged that the Rangers need to improve its quality at center too. So between the options of building a package around Buchnevich to address this C need vs. sandpaper for the bottom lines, I'd personally prefer the former.

Both Studnicka and Frederic ARE centers.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

Both Studnicka and Frederic ARE centers.

Studnicka, nor Frederic are available

 

[MrAlmost]

Can we talk about Filip Chytil for a min?

this 21 year old kid isn’t going to be 22 for another 6 or 7 months big strong and WHEELS for days.

he’s on an 82 game pace of 46 points while missing 4-6 weeks with Covid akd a broken hand

AND he gets basically ZERO PP time.

He’s a 60 pt center minimum if he ever gets any real pp time in his career

do we seriously not see him as the legit 2C heir apparent?

we very well might be smarter to just keep our own centers and stay away from a big ticket.

That is usually the correct approach, but pressure in New York is pretty convincing sometimes. Stay away from the Eichels and Barkovs and especially then RNHs I say. With upcoming costs, the Rangers need to be a team that can find bargain bin gems.

 

[pld459666]

Frederic is down for a while, folks....

NYR are not trading for Frederic for this year.

Plus the x-rays came back negative for any breaks so maybe he misses a week or two

 

[Fitzy]

Chytil stinks on the power play

 

[kovazub94]

Both Studnicka and Frederic ARE centers.

I said "quality" implying 1C or at least 2C levels.

 

[pld459666]

Studnicka, nor Frederic are available

That's fair.

Boston doesn't really have anything else (available) that would interest the Rangers.

 

[pld459666]

I said "quality" implying 1C or at least 2C levels.

In addition to Buch.

What else are you moving to acquire that 1C / 2C player?