Speculation: Roster Building Thread LXXXV: Sell some now, buy some later

[GoAwayPanarin]

Or trade the pick for a 1st and 3rd next year, if nobody on the board is enticing.

As always, this takes a willing trade partner

 

[Savant]

This is stupid, pardon my French.

How many crossbars Howden hit? Lemieux? Hitting crossbar mean generation of a high-scoring chance that in isolation or in general requires making the right plays to get there. Even though some posters don't think that, but it means that goalie was beat. The law of averages says that there's a certain percentage of high-scoring chances will be converted into goals over a longer sample size of games. By definition this percentage is higher for the high-danger chances than lower danger chances.

Howden and Lemieux weren’t drafted at second overall to be a dominant offensive player.

this is like xG. Some people think it shows upside/downside but I think it’s an efficiency measure. You want guys that are scoring near their xG. Creating chances is nice, but At some point you need to see some production

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

I think that’s fair too, (and at least I admiring I hadn’t seen the latest data) No problem with anything that you are saying. The data from last year is very damning. I don’t think it would have been possible for him to be worse. It’s great that there has been improvement, and I think he was definitely on the right track before he got sick. That being said, he still isn’t passing the eye test for me. There is upside but I think his development has been very strange and it concerns me.

how is Lafreniere grading out analytically if you have access. Would be curious about that.

This is Lafreniere right now at 5v5 on a per 60 min basis:

xGF - 78th best forward in the league, 78th percentile
xGA - 282nd best forward in the league, 21st percentile
In total, xGF% - 167th best forward in the league, 53rd percentile

Hear and agree w your point RE efficiency. To me this generating the chances is a positive step, but there is absolutely an expectation that conversion % begins to increase.

 

[Savant]

This is Lafreniere right now at 5v5 on a per 60 min basis:

xGF - 78th best forward in the league, 78th percentile
xGA - 282nd best forward in the league, 21st percentile
In total, xGF% - 167th best forward in the league, 53rd percentile

Hear and agree w your point RE efficiency. To me this generating the chances is a positive step, but there is absolutely an expectation that conversion % begins to increase.

Sure. I don’t disagree with you either.

would also be interested to see Jack Hughes progressing who has also visibly made a step up this year.

let me ask you though - eye test alone - who do you think has been better? 13 or 24

 

[duhmetreE]

Sure. I don’t disagree with you either.

let me ask you though - eye test alone - who do you think has been better? 13 or 24

its not even close. 13 looks waaaay better than 24 in their d+1 year

 

[kovazub94]

Howden and Lemieux weren’t drafted at second overall to be a dominant offensive player.

this is like xG. Some people think it shows upside/downside but I think it’s an efficiency measure. You want guys that are scoring near their xG. Creating chances is nice, but At some point you need to see some production

Yes, "at some point" is the key but for this you need a much larger sample size of games played.

 

[Savant]

Yes, "at some point" is the key but for this you need a much larger sample size of games played.

I don’t agree but that’s okay.

 

[Savant]

its not even close. 13 looks waaaay better than 24 in their d+1 year

Not to pile on, but This is my instinct as well.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

Sure. I don’t disagree with you either.

let me ask you though - eye test alone - who do you think has been better? 13 or 24

My personal opinion is that there have been games where I would have said either one. Kakko in the ~2 weeks or so pre-Covid was the best sustained stretch I saw from either. Lafreniere in the Bruins 6-2 win in my memory stands out as one of the better individual performances.

Kakko looks like a player who you will want on your team for a long time with his ability to strip pucks, get the play going in the other direction, and work the puck in the offensive zone. He will be a real problem for opposing defensemen's endurance throughout a game. However I am not fully convinced that he will be an elite offensive player at this stage. He has had moments. But right now he is not dangerous enough on the rush with the puck and not consistently good at putting himself in position for scoring opportunities in the offensive zone.

Lafreniere looks like he needs a summer with Prentiss and to play more instinctually. He is late on reads a lot and it is probably a mixture of not having mature NHL conditioning as well as the game being too fast for him, as well as possibly being asked to nail the details of positioning to a high degree and therefore him spending too much time thinking. However he has definitely flashed some really high end ability so I am optimistic that his current issues can be overcome.

 

[GAGLine]

Holloway I would classify as not interesting. He is also their most recent pick and I believe he is from Alberta. Doesn’t seem like a recipe for a guy they would move; and honestly don’t see where he helps the Rangers.

I agree that it's unlikely that Edmonton would move him, but you seriously don't see where he helps the Rangers? Short of him failing to make it as a center in the NHL, which I think unlikely, he is a perfect fit for the Rangers. Great skater. High compete level and plays a heavy game. And apparently he can score as well, despite the reservations of many pundits last year.

Buchnevich for Holloway would be a risk, but there is always a risk in trading a proven commodity for an unproven one. As much as I love Buch, I would role the dice on that one.

 

[Kovalev27]

Or trade the pick for a 1st and 3rd next year, if nobody on the board is enticing.

Id bbe shocked if someone were dumb enough to trade a 2022 first in a strong draft for a 2021 first honestly. That should be a fireable offense lol

 

[Savant]

I agree that it's unlikely that Edmonton would move him, but you seriously don't see where he helps the Rangers? Short of him failing to make it as a center in the NHL, which I think unlikely, he is a perfect fit for the Rangers. Great skater. High compete level and plays a heavy game. And apparently he can score as well, despite the reservations of many pundits last year.

Buchnevich for Holloway would be a risk, but there is always a risk in trading a proven commodity for an unproven one. As much as I love Buch, I would role the dice on that one.

I don’t think Edmonton makes the move so it’s irrelevant to me. Edmonton has had multiple chances to trade those picks, used to take those players, for Buchnevich and haven’t. It’s not happening now. Buchnevich has elevated himself that I am not trading him for a risky guy that I’m not sure stays at center and I’m not sure has top six upside. There are other moves I would make first.

 

[Off Sides]

I agree that it's unlikely that Edmonton would move him, but you seriously don't see where he helps the Rangers? Short of him failing to make it as a center in the NHL, which I think unlikely, he is a perfect fit for the Rangers. Great skater. High compete level and plays a heavy game. And apparently he can score as well, despite the reservations of many pundits last year.

Buchnevich for Holloway would be a risk, but there is always a risk in trading a proven commodity for an unproven one. As much as I love Buch, I would role the dice on that one.

Kind of seems like the Rangers would need to know if Hollaway is interested in signing his entry level soon or not if traded to the Rangers.

 

[wafflepadsave]

Id bbe shocked if someone were dumb enough to trade a 2022 first in a strong draft for a 2021 first honestly. That should be a fireable offense lol

Yeah, I’ll go with surprised. Probably works if another team is in love with the next player on the board. And would likely be a rebuilding team.

 

[pld459666]

If this is a basis for a trade I’d puke.

Make Buch a prime piece with some add for a skilled center - fine. But this above - no thanks (since it’s completely different from when Zuke, Hayes or McD had to be moved).

Note a comment made by @Edge regarding potentially sacrificing talent for a bit more sandpaper.

Trent Frederic is a bit more sandpaper and would be a great compliment to the LaFrenier / Kakko / Chytil / Kraavtsov's on the world not to mention Panarin and Mika for however long he is here.

Obviously it's not a 1:1 type of trade, but if the Rangers were to pry both Studnicka and Frederic from Boston for Buch and a Howden or something else, that's not a bad exchange.

 

[GAGLine]

Kind of seems like the Rangers would need to know if Hollaway is interested in signing his entry level soon or not if traded to the Rangers.

Yeah, that might be a consideration, though I'd be surprised if he spends more than 1 more year there. Actually, I think it's likely that he signs after this year, especially if Wisconsin wins the championship.

I was so hoping that we would find a way to get either him or Lundell with our second 1st last year. Now I'm hoping for Beniers, but that will probably be another pipe dream.

 

[Fitzy]

And?

Inconclusive. They are all sort of 1B/2A players at their highest level.

In terms of peak performance I'd say 2013 Stepan, in terms of career my money is on either Buchy or Kreider depending on how they age.

So we have developed a decent number of solid forwards, but none of them hit true 1A status yet. Maybe Buchnevich is headed in that direction. But it makes sense because typically you only see 2-3 true 1A forwards emerge in each draft that were picked outside the top ten (Pastrnak situations)

 

[Leetch3]

Kind of seems like the Rangers would need to know if Hollaway is interested in signing his entry level soon or not if traded to the Rangers.

i would have zero concerns about being able to sign him.

 

[duhmetreE]

I don’t agree but that’s okay.

Yeah, my complaints are not with Laf and how he's producing. I'd just rather see him on the PP and there was a stretch at the beginning of the year where we were chipping/dumping wway too often.

Kakko concern is that he's rarely at the middle of the ice. He's slow in transition. He's not getting the chances that Laf is.. PP usage again but I understand there's just way too many players.

 

[NYR Viper]

Holloway I would classify as not interesting. He is also their most recent pick and I believe he is from Alberta. Doesn’t seem like a recipe for a guy they would move; and honestly don’t see where he helps the Rangers.

Broberg seems even less likely considering the Oilers already passed on a Buchnevich trade involving the pick they used to take Broberg.

So yeah. I’m not interested.

Holloway? The kid who is destroying the NCAA the year after he was drafted? The kid some wanted with the Rangers 2nd pick in the first round IF they could move up?

Just because teams don't connect on a trade at the time, doesn't mean it won't happen in the future.

 

[Off Sides]

i would have zero concerns about being able to sign him.

Did he have Rangers PJs growing up?

 

[Leetch3]

Did he have Rangers PJs growing up?

name the last time we had a prospects that we wanted to sign and couldn't? the last one i can think of is rj umberger in 2004 and we only had his rights for a couple months before he could walk.

 

[Savant]

Holloway? The kid who is destroying the NCAA the year after he was drafted? The kid some wanted with the Rangers 2nd pick in the first round IF they could move up?

Just because teams don't connect on a trade at the time, doesn't mean it won't happen in the future.

Yes the kid that Edmonton wanted for themselves and have no reason to change their minds.

 

[leetch99]

It’s so easy to forget that Lindgren started last season in the AHL.

It feels like he’s been a regular starter here for at least two full seasons already

LOL..and then you look at Trouba and see some of his minor hockey moves . Some guys just process the whole thing better .

 

[SA16]

If you're going to take a goalie in the first round because you don't like any of the players you should just trade the pick.