Speculation: Roster Building Thread LXXXV: Sell some now, buy some later

[Savant]

Out of curiosity what do you all think Igor's next deal will look like?

Bridge deal, slightly better than what AG got.

 

[duhmetreE]

Buch for Newhook
Buch for Lundell

even this will make us super green down the middle. Still think Buch is moved in offseason or in a year or two. Buch+Strome+ for a young center would be nice. Maybe if talks dont get anywhere with Barkov...

 

[Kodiak]

Out of curiosity what do you all think Igor's next deal will look like?

Igor's in a very strange spot because he hasn't proven much yet, but he's only two years away from being unrestricted. That pretty much takes the bridge deal off the table. I doubt he accepts a 1-year contract. We may have to roll the dice and sign him long-term and hope he maintains his level of play.

 

[NYR Viper]

For Buchnevich? They don’t have any interesting assets.

I wouldn't classify Broberg and Holloway as 'not interesting'

 

[Edge]

To be devils advocate here, not that I necessarily agree with it -

I’m not surprised there is no concern on 13 and 24 yet from teams that likely had them as the best (or 2nd best) players on their board. Doesn’t really benefit them to throw in the towel yet does it? Them having no concern, based on results, must surely be based on their evaluation pre-NHL. The NHL performance is not indicative of having no concern. League wide, you have a group that think they will be fine based on where they were drafted, because it can’t be based on what is happening on NHL ice. 24 is slightly better than last year but still isn’t producing well and 13 is having a very similar rookie season to 24. They may be developing, but it looks like it is going much more slowly than anticipated.

personally I am less worried with 13 because I think there is more to his game, but 24 needs to show he can put up NHL level offense. We haven’t seen that yet and yes that is a problem.

There is some truth in the sense that teams do hedge on guys like they liked.

But I will say that many (most?) of the opinions out there are pretty nuanced.

They look at usage, underlying data, the league as a whole, the team and coaching staff’s preferences, etc.

For them there tends to be more “how’s he playing” compared to “how’s he scoring.”And the belief has tended to be that both guys are playing well, just not getting a check mark that shows up in the box score. That’s not to say they’ve been viewed as perfect. But as a whole it just really hasn’t been a thing.

 

[kovazub94]

It's interesting because I was internally debating the other day whether Kreider, Buchnevich, Zuccarello, Callahan, or Stepan has been our best developed forward of the post lockout era.

And?

 

[Kords]

That is certainly true.

And at the end of the day, you go with the percentages.

It’s hard to put into words without it inevitably sounding dickish, but you sometimes find yourself at a crossroads. I can lean towards agreeing with several people from different teams whose career depends on making those projections, or I can follow a fan. Admittedly, sometimes the fan is indeed correct. But the odds say the other option is more likely to be closer to accurate. It’s a balancing act for sure.

I'll have you know, Sir Avgard is a hockey professor!

 

[Savant]

I wouldn't classify Broberg and Holloway as 'not interesting'

Holloway I would classify as not interesting. He is also their most recent pick and I believe he is from Alberta. Doesn’t seem like a recipe for a guy they would move; and honestly don’t see where he helps the Rangers.

Broberg seems even less likely considering the Oilers already passed on a Buchnevich trade involving the pick they used to take Broberg.

So yeah. I’m not interested.

 

[kovazub94]

To be devils advocate here, not that I necessarily agree with it -

I’m not surprised there is no concern on 13 and 24 yet from teams that likely had them as the best (or 2nd best) players on their board. Doesn’t really benefit them to throw in the towel yet does it? Them having no concern, based on results, must surely be based on their evaluation pre-NHL. The NHL performance is not indicative of having no concern. League wide, you have a group that think they will be fine based on where they were drafted, because it can’t be based on what is happening on NHL ice. 24 is slightly better than last year but still isn’t producing well and 13 is having a very similar rookie season to 24. They may be developing, but it looks like it is going much more slowly than anticipated.

personally I am less worried with 13 because I think there is more to his game, but 24 needs to show he can put up NHL level offense. We haven’t seen that yet and yes that is a problem.

@Edge explicitly said that there's no concern about their NHL performance. Why do you then try to qualify his statement that somehow FO either discounts their performance in the NHL or that they do have concerns about their NHL performance?

 

[Savant]

There is some truth in the sense that teams do hedge on guys like they liked.

But I will say that many (most?) of the opinions out there are pretty nuanced.

They look at usage, underlying data, the league as a whole, the team and coaching staff’s preferences, etc.

For them there tends to be more “how’s he playing” compared to “how’s he scoring.”And the belief has tended to be that both guys are playing well, just not getting a check mark that shows up in the box score. That’s not to say they’ve been viewed as perfect. But as a whole it just really hasn’t been a thing.

Going to have to respectfully push back as the data on Kakko, specifically last year, was damning at best. Haven’t seen the analytics on 13 and 24 yet this year, but I can’t imagine that they are great.

as I said, it’s way too early to get on 13’s back, but 24 is neither passing the eye test, nor the analytic test. You (not specifically you) can only allow for so long the “is he playing well” without any production to back it up. 24 is an interesting case because of tough rookie season, weird (at best) development and Covid, but again, it’s a lot of excuses right now, even if most are legitimate. I haven’t seen a guy that had adapted him game for the NHL. Don’t know how much of that is on coaching. Don’t know how much of that is on 24. Either way I’m not seeing it.

 

[kovazub94]

A lot of highly drafted players start their careers on very bad teams, and they are given lots of ice time, both 5 on 5 and on the PP, right out of the gate because those teams don't have better options. With the Rangers, Kakko and Laf have been more sheltered. They haven't gotten as much ice time as many of their peers. Now this is where someone makes the argument that they should get more ice time, but people forget that there are 21 other players on this team, all who want to win. Should we cut Kreider's ice time because we want to force feed minutes to Laf? Should Buchnevich play less to accommodate Kakko?

It seems like a lot a fans care more about how many points Kakko and Laf score than they do about the team winning. Yes, this is a development year, but part of development is teaching players how to win, not just how to score points. Kakko and Laf getting more points might make some people feel better about them, but it would be a mirage. Look at the progress Buchnevich has made. He is a complete player now, and he is scoring more than ever. It took a lot of time and patience, but he has finally become the player we all hoped he could be. Players who score a lot but are completely deficient in all other areas of the game are fool's gold. Case in point, Ryan Strome. He still has his warts, but he is a much more complete player today than he was when he put up 50 points in his 1st full year with the Islanders. Having the next McDavid or Draisaitl is great, but how much does it really help if they are lazy on the back check and leaving the defensive zone early to try to generate more offense? Ovechkin has been putting up ridiculous numbers for years, but it wasn't until Trotz came along and instilled a more defensive mindset into the team that they actually won a cup.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Good defense leads to good offense. Teams can still score a lot without playing good defense, but they aren't going to win a lot, at least not when it really matters. That's exactly why Toronto hasn't been able to get out of the first round for the last number of years. Great offense which results in a lot of regular season wins, but no commitment to playing defense. Talent is talent. It's going to shine through no matter what. Playing good defense puts players in a better position to use that talent.

A lot of fans seems to care more about prospects points than their development or somehow think it's one and the same. It's not.

 

[Savant]

@Edge explicitly said that there's no concern about their NHL performance. Why do you then try to qualify his statement that somehow FO either discounts their performance in the NHL or that they do have concerns about their NHL performance?

I have more concern on 24 than I have on 13.

Edge also says (which was my point) that the FO guys are hedging on this.

my point is people would rather say (at least) publicly that they think it’s going to be fine, as opposed to “I was completely wrong on my evaluation of this guy as a can’t miss prospect”. What has been shown that this guy was worth being the 2nd pick at NHL level besides the fact that he was the 2nd pick? Not saying it won’t happen but am saying that 24 definitely has some plot armor.

 

[Kovalev27]

Tell you what. I love Igor I do but where we’re probably going to be sitting in the draft this year. The standout best player available is going to be the Swedish goalie. And I’d take him over almost anyone. This draft sucks. He’s honestly the bpa in the whole thing frankly.

 

[Edge]

Going to have to respectfully push back as the data on Kakko, specifically last year, was damning at best. Haven’t seen the analytics on 13 and 24 yet this year, but I can’t imagine that they are great.

as I said, it’s way too early to get on 13’s back, but 24 is neither passing the eye test, nor the analytic test. You (not specifically you) can only allow for so long the “is he playing well” without any production to back it up. 24 is an interesting case because of tough rookie season, weird (at best) development and Covid, but again, it’s a lot of excuses right now, even if most are legitimate. I haven’t seen a guy that had adapted him game for the NHL. Don’t know how much of that is on coaching. Don’t know how much of that is on 24. Either way I’m not seeing it.

That's okay, there's no quota I have to hit on conversions, I promise. I'm just sharing that it's not really a topic out there.

As for the data --- we've seen some of it on here and elsewhere. Admittedly, I can't recall the specific dates and pages we've seen it, but that's some of the same information teams are looking at as well.

The eye test comparison is hard. One person looks and they don't see anything. Another person looks and sees a kid who sets up play but is one player removed from getting stat line credit for it, and a puck that hits the crossbar. In that instance, he comes away seeing a kid who easily could've had a two-point night. So sometimes that's where the disagreements come into play.

 

[Edge]

Tell you what. I love Igor I do but where we’re probably going to be sitting in the draft this year. The standout best player available is going to be the Swedish goalie. And I’d take him over almost anyone. This draft sucks. He’s honestly the bpa in the whole thing frankly.

I think outside of the top 5, he's certainly the kid with the highest upside --- by a significant margin.

 

[Ruggs225]

I woulsnt give any goalie more than $6m a year, especially in flat cap years. Even $6 is pushing it.

u need the money to keep good players in front of the goalie.

 

[bigdog16]

Tell you what. I love Igor I do but where we’re probably going to be sitting in the draft this year. The standout best player available is going to be the Swedish goalie. And I’d take him over almost anyone. This draft sucks. He’s honestly the bpa in the whole thing frankly.

I don't disagree with you at all. I have a hard time thinking the Rangers pull the trigger though. Not saying you are wrong - because my thought process is the same as yours. This draft sucks

 

[True Blue]

I think outside of the top 5, he's certainly the kid with the highest upside --- by a significant margin.

I think that he has the highest upside in the draft, full stop. Said this before, but if I had to put money on who turns out elite, he is the one prospect from this draft I would bet on.

Gun to head, I would take Power, Clarke & Beniers ahead of him. Wallstedt vs. Guenther would be a a debate. After that? Wallstedt all day every day.

 

[Savant]

That's okay, there's no quota I have to hit on conversions, I promise. I'm just sharing that it's not really a topic out there.

As for the data --- we've seen some of it on here and elsewhere. Admittedly, I can't recall the specific dates and pages we've seen it, but that's some of the same information teams are looking at as well.

The eye test comparison is hard. One person looks and they don't see anything. Another person looks and sees a kid who sets up play but is one player removed from getting stat line credit for it, and a puck that hits the crossbar. In that instance, he comes away seeing a kid who easily could've had a two-point night. So sometimes that's where the disagreements come into play.

Anyone can hit a crossbar. Not everyone can put up points. And again this is a philosophy thing here and I don’t think either of us are being antagonistic to each other but yeah it’s a difference of opinion. Maybe the player is going to progress/regress to the mean, or maybe it means they are inefficient. That’s when I go down to tools. Is the player’s shot a good tool? Hard to say. Fun to talk about though.

 

[Savant]

Tell you what. I love Igor I do but where we’re probably going to be sitting in the draft this year. The standout best player available is going to be the Swedish goalie. And I’d take him over almost anyone. This draft sucks. He’s honestly the bpa in the whole thing frankly.

If Beniers is off the board, I am absolutely going Wallstedt unless I am 100% sure (I’m not) that Kent Johnson can stick at center

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

Going to have to respectfully push back as the data on Kakko, specifically last year, was damning at best. Haven’t seen the analytics on 13 and 24 yet this year, but I can’t imagine that they are great.

as I said, it’s way too early to get on 13’s back, but 24 is neither passing the eye test, nor the analytic test. You (not specifically you) can only allow for so long the “is he playing well” without any production to back it up. 24 is an interesting case because of tough rookie season, weird (at best) development and Covid, but again, it’s a lot of excuses right now, even if most are legitimate. I haven’t seen a guy that had adapted him game for the NHL. Don’t know how much of that is on coaching. Don’t know how much of that is on 24. Either way I’m not seeing it.

So you haven’t seen the data, but are just going to go ahead and assume it’s not great?

Kakko has had a significantly better season from an underlying metrics standpoint in my analysis. Among all regular forwards in the NHL this year he is 91st (out of 358) or 74th percentile in expected goals. So across the league would be the ~3rd best forward on a team on average. However he has been even better defensively...55th or 85th percentile in expected goals or the ~2nd best forward on a team on average.

I think it’s more than fair to have concerns about his high end upside but he has definitely had a strong season from an underlying metrics standpoint IMO. And the improvement from year 1 is extremely encouraging.

 

[wafflepadsave]

Tell you what. I love Igor I do but where we’re probably going to be sitting in the draft this year. The standout best player available is going to be the Swedish goalie. And I’d take him over almost anyone. This draft sucks. He’s honestly the bpa in the whole thing frankly.

Or trade the pick for a 1st and 3rd next year, if nobody on the board is enticing.

 

[kovazub94]

Anyone can hit a crossbar. Not everyone can put up points. And again this is a philosophy thing here and I don’t think either of us are being antagonistic to each other but yeah it’s a difference of opinion. Maybe the player is going to progress/regress to the mean, or maybe it means they are inefficient. That’s when I go down to tools. Is the player’s shot a good tool? Hard to say. Fun to talk about though.

This is stupid, pardon my French.

How many crossbars Howden hit? Lemieux? Hitting crossbar mean generation of a high-scoring chance that in isolation or in general requires making the right plays to get there. Even though some posters don't think that, but it means that goalie was beat. The law of averages says that there's a certain percentage of high-scoring chances will be converted into goals over a longer sample size of games. By definition this percentage is higher for the high-danger chances than lower danger chances.

 

[Savant]

So you haven’t seen the data, but are just going to go ahead and assume it’s not great?

Kakko has had a significantly better season from an underlying metrics standpoint in my analysis. Among all regular forwards in the NHL this year he is 91st (out of 358) or 74th percentile in expected goals. So across the league would be the ~3rd best forward on a team on average. However he has been even better defensively...55th or 85th percentile in expected goals or the ~2nd best forward on a team on average.

I think it’s more than fair to have concerns about his high end upside but he has definitely had a strong season from an underlying metrics standpoint IMO. And the improvement from year 1 is extremely encouraging.

I think that’s fair too, (and at least I admiring I hadn’t seen the latest data) No problem with anything that you are saying. The data from last year is very damning. I don’t think it would have been possible for him to be worse. It’s great that there has been improvement, and I think he was definitely on the right track before he got sick. That being said, he still isn’t passing the eye test for me. There is upside but I think his development has been very strange and it concerns me.

how is Lafreniere grading out analytically if you have access. Would be curious about that.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I cringe at taking a goalie in the first round but I could be talked into taking Wallstedt depending on where they’re picking