Speculation: Roster Building Thread LXI - We are in The End Game now.

[eco's bones]

I don’t like the off-season NJ is having (from our perspective)...

2 and 3 year deals on Gusev and Subban. They’ll have so much flexibility down the road and the coming years.

They have Hughes, Hischier and Ty Smith and a few other younger guys but they're not nearly as deep in overall prospect depth as the Rangers IMO. Some of their guys have really underwhelmed like Zacha and McLeod. There is a lot of weight on MacKenzie Blackwood as well--if he's not going to be a #1 NHL goalie that position will need to be upgraded too. That said they are deeper in prospects than most though and Hughes is elite and Hischier and Smith aren't far behind.

 

[Rempe73]

Ouch, I like Barron a lot so not moving him. Honestly, i’m not moving out a kid to move Shatty.

I’m more or less with you, as I also like Barron. But I like Howden and Hajek too. But I think it’s better to use a kid like that (who will maybe become an ok middle 6 forward) to get rid of Shattenkirk as opposed to having to get rid of a good, young, and proven NHL player like ADA/Buch to get under the cap. That, and we have a surplus of NHL/close-to-NHL-ready RHD who can play on the power play.

 

[NYRFAN218]

Am I correct in saying that Smith has to be on waivers at noon to be bought out? I know the waivers thing was mentioned earlier but I’d assume it’s today for Smith since the buyout would then be finalized tomorrow. Shattenkirk I guess could go up to the deadline since he has the NMC.

Am I also right in saying Smith could go on waivers for purpose of a buyout but not actually be bought out? They could place him on waivers to prepare for a buyout of a trade falls into place but ultimately buy out Shattenkirk if nothing comes to fruition since buying out Smith would require 2 moves to get under.

 

[NYR Viper]

Let's look at the buyout scenarios.....again.

2019-2020
Giradi = $3.611m
Beleskey (buried) = $.825m
Staal = $2.9m
Smith = $.970833m
Spooner = $.3m
Total Dead Cap Space = ~$8.6m

2020-2021
Girardi = $1.11m
Staal = $3.7m
Smith = $3.145m
Spooner = $.3m
Total Dead Cap Space= ~$8.255m
Key players to sign = Lemieux (maybe), ADA (maybe), Georgiev, Strome
Players off the cap = Kreider, Namestnikov, Fast

2021-2022
Girardi = $1.11m
Staal = $1.2m
Smith = $1.1456m
Total Dead Cap Space = $3.456m
Key Players to re-sign = Hajek, Chytil, Andersson, Howden, Buchnevich
Players off the cap = Shattenkirk, Hank

2022-2023
Girardi = $1.11m
Staal = $1.2m
Smith = $1.1456m
Total Dead Cap Space = $3.456m
Key players to re-sign = Kravtsov, Kakko, Zibanejad, Fox, Lemieux (maybe), ADA (maybe)


I really think it's better to continue accumulating assets when possible (wait to trade Namesnikov and Kreider until they get fair value) and just bite the bullet on the buyouts. They have room this year to carry both the Smith and Staal buyouts. They will have room next year as well, no issues there based on who they need to re-sign. After that, the 'dead cap space' is pretty minimal.

 

[NYR Viper]

Am I correct in saying that Smith has to be on waivers at noon to be bought out? I know the waivers thing was mentioned earlier but I’d assume it’s today for Smith since the buyout would then be finalized tomorrow. Shattenkirk I guess could go up to the deadline since he has the NMC.

Am I also right in saying Smith could go on waivers for purpose of a buyout but not actually be bought out? They could place him on waivers to prepare for a buyout of a trade falls into place but ultimately buy out Shattenkirk if nothing comes to fruition since buying out Smith would require 2 moves to get under.

Yes Smith would need to be on waiver 24 hours before he is bought out. Staal and Shattenkirk can deny being placed on waivers as they have NMC's

 

[Rempe73]

They have Hughes, Hischier and Ty Smith and a few other younger guys but they're not nearly as deep in overall prospect depth as the Rangers IMO. Some of their guys have really underwhelmed like Zacha and McLeod. There is a lot of weight on MacKenzie Blackwood as well--if he's not going to be a #1 NHL goalie that position will need to be upgraded too. That said they are deeper in prospects than most though and Hughes is elite and Hischier and Smith aren't far behind.

Hischier isn’t a prospect anymore but I know what you’re saying. I wouldn’t consider him elite, but he is a very good piece to have, and the ideal center to have behind Hughes. Damn, what I would do to have that kind of center depth. But yea, a lot of other things need to go right for me to begin to worry about NJ short-term and long-term. And like you said, although they have pretty good depth when it comes to their prospect pool, it could have been much better if many of their early picks didn’t bust.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

From which NHL ready player??? Due tell. Rykov is not ready to jump right in, he has never played on NA ice... Hajek has what, 5 games?? Come on....

This is incorrect

 

[Mikos87]

Joel Eriksson-Ek would be a good add from Minnesota in a trade involving Kreider. A good bet.

Everyone loved JEE before he got the Minny. Button had him really high on the top prospect list. Ahead of Barzal and co. Big strong kid with great attitude, both good infront of the net and decent vision. Can skate. But this type don’t have a ton of instant success in the NHL, it’s more often the smaller faster players that do well. But if we trade Kreider, we definitely got a need for that big grinding body at LW. JEE could thrive in that role. Responsible defensively and good on the PK etc. Captained the Swedish WJC team unless my memory fails me. He has played OK for Minny but haven’t produced at all.

JEE + Minny’s 1st in 2020 for Kreider, we could do worse.

Interesting. JEE had a lot of hype, but I think he’s a very good third liner. I was in Minnesota earlier in the year and went a bunch of their games, talked to some fans.

They haven’t done a good job of developing kids recently and they think Boudreau has a lot to do with it.

Maybe JEE needs a change of scenery but he would be in the same class as Lias and Howden right now.

 

[Rempe73]

Joel Eriksson-Ek would be a good add from Minnesota in a trade involving Kreider. A good bet.

Everyone loved JEE before he got the Minny. Button had him really high on the top prospect list. Ahead of Barzal and co. Big strong kid with great attitude, both good infront of the net and decent vision. Can skate. But this type don’t have a ton of instant success in the NHL, it’s more often the smaller faster players that do well. But if we trade Kreider, we definitely got a need for that big grinding body at LW. JEE could thrive in that role. Responsible defensively and good on the PK etc. Captained the Swedish WJC team unless my memory fails me. He has played OK for Minny but haven’t produced at all.

JEE + Minny’s 1st in 2020 for Kreider, we could do worse.

Not a bad suggestion. What do you think his potential is? 2nd liner? And what about his ceiling? It’s tough for me to get a good read on JEE.

 

[GAGLine]

Maybe this has been mentioned already before, but my service sucks here in Poland and there’s no wifi, so I don’t have the patience to go back and check. Why don’t we just buy out Namestnikov? Since he’s under 27 (I think that’s the cutoff), we would only have to pay for 1/3 of his contract, right? Then I wonder if we could trade a 50% retained Shattenkirk plus a Howden/Hajek/Barron for something.

Under 26 gets 1/3rd. 26 and older is 2/3rds. Strome is 25, but his cap hit isn't high enough to qualify for the 2nd buyout window.

Shatty was offered at 50% and there were no takers. Maybe someone would bite with a Howden or Hajek attached (Barron does not have the same value, I don't think), but there's no way I'm giving either away just to get rid of half of Shatty's contract.

 

[Rempe73]

Under 26 gets 1/3rd. 26 and older is 2/3rds. Strome is 25, but his cap hit isn't high enough to qualify for the 2nd buyout window.

Shatty was offered at 50% and there were no takers. Maybe someone would bite with a Howden or Hajek attached (Barron does not have the same value, I don't think), but there's no way I'm giving either away just to get rid of half of Shatty's contract.

Thank you, but it was Namestnikov that I was wondering about. Is his cap hit too low? Also, I explained above why I would attach a prospect to get rid of Shattenkirk. Too lazy to restate it, but I’m not saying we trade Shattenkirk at 50% retained + Howden/Hajek/Barron for a 5th. Maybe we get a 2nd.

 

[Kocur Dill]

"Mr. Lundqvist."

Love it. This kid is growing on me quickly. The Insta vids, the interviews where you can see the smile is not only genuine but beaming. I wasn't exactly for the signing going into July 1st, but Panarin's demeanor is hard to root against. It's the little things. Reminds me of Zucc. Reminds me of my own son and the way I brought him up as an athlete. Put your heart into where you are, respect the chain of command because someday you'll be at the top and have set that precedent for those coming behind you, and show no mercy to the competition.

 

[Calad]

Buying out Shattenkirk gives us more cap space this year (via needing only 1 player to replace the boughtout vs 2 with Staal and Smith) and less dead cap next season(which honestly isn't a problem either way but some people here are really worried about it)

 

[OthmannOut]

༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ Take my energy Gorton

 

[NYR Viper]

Buying out Shattenkirk gives us more cap space this year (via needing only 1 player to replace the boughtout vs 2 with Staal and Smith) and less dead cap next season(which honestly isn't a problem either way but some people here are really worried about it)

Again though what is cap space worth?

The issue we are going to see is in years 3 + 4.


2019-2020
Giradi = $3.611m
Beleskey (buried) = $.825m
Staal = $2.9m
Smith = $.970833m
OR Shattenkirk @ $1.483m
Spooner = $.3m
Total Dead Cap Space = ~$8.6m

2020-2021
Girardi = $1.11m
Staal = $3.7m
Smith = $3.145m
OR Shattenkirk @ $6.083m
Spooner = $.3m
Total Dead Cap Space= ~$8.255m
Key players to sign = Lemieux (maybe), ADA (maybe), Georgiev, Strome
Players off the cap = Kreider, Namestnikov, Fast

2021-2022
Girardi = $1.11m
Staal = $1.2m
Smith = $1.1456m
OR Shattenkirk @ $1.433m
Total Dead Cap Space = $3.456m
Key Players to re-sign = Hajek, Chytil, Andersson, Howden, Buchnevich
Players off the cap = Shattenkirk, Hank

2022-2023
Girardi = $1.11m
Staal = $1.2m
Smith = $1.1456m
OR Shattenkirk @ $1.433m
Total Dead Cap Space = $3.456m
Key players to re-sign = Kravtsov, Kakko, Zibanejad, Fox, Lemieux (maybe), ADA (maybe)


So you're saving:

2019-2020:
$2.388M

2020-2021
$.76m

2021-2022
$.912m

2022-2023
$.912m

And you are getting rid of a better player who will most likely have value as soon as next off-season.

So let's say the Rangers pay his bonus next July 1st and then can trade him for a 2nd + 3rd '2021. The additional dead cap of $.912m in 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 is worth less than the additional 2nd + 3rd they recoup from Shattenkirk. Those picks are worth more than that dead cap space. Therefore, buying our Shattenkirk in lieu of Staal and Smith is a poor decision.

You're also clearing an extra contract (Smith + Staal vs Shattenkirk) and opening up LD where the organizational depth is much more plentiful than RD (outside of Fox there isn't anyone else close to ready right now)

 

[NYR Viper]

Basically here is the trade we need to consider

Would anyone here consider this trade a win if Shattenkirk was on another team?

Shattenkirk for Staal + Smith
Knowing that Shattenkirk would carry a premium cap hit of the below over the next 4 years
2019-2020:
$2.388M

2020-2021
$.76m

2021-2022
$.912m

2022-2023
$.912m

 

[GAGLine]

Thank you, but it was Namestnikov that I was wondering about. Is his cap hit too low? Also, I explained above why I would attach a prospect to get rid of Shattenkirk. Too lazy to restate it, but I’m not saying we trade Shattenkirk at 50% retained + Howden/Hajek/Barron for a 5th. Maybe we get a 2nd.

Namestnikov qualifies. The minimum cap hit changes each year based on the average SPC:

Buyout FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Buyouts Outside of the Regular Period

Clubs whom have 1 or more arbitration filings may be permitted to perform a buyout outside of the regular window. This gives teams another opportunity to become cap compliant following an arbitration case.

Clubs are permitted to perform a buyout outside the regular period during the 48 hour period beginning on the third day after the final of [CBA 13(c)ii]:

1. Settlement of the Club's final arbitration case, or
2. Receipt of the Club's last arbitration award

Requirements:

1. A buyout can only be performed on a player who was on the clubs reserve list at 3:00pm on the most recent trade deadline
2. The player must have a cap hit of at least $3,455,438 for the 2019 offseason

So, we can buy out Namestnikov, but he would get 2/3rds because he is 26.

A 2nd round pick isn't enough for me to throw in a Howden or Hajek. We need those players more than we need another pick.

 

[True Blue]

I have. The next two years will be challenging but very manageable. The Rangers have plenty of contracts expiring in the next 2-3 years. They will have plenty of money to maneuver. They only have 7 players under contract for 2021-22 and I expect at least 5-6 more players that year will be on ELCs.

Cap Compliance is one year at a time.

Rangers have big contracts expiring in 2 years. Not one. In several more year's time, they will have a new crop of RFAs to deal with.

What you do not want is to wind up like Las Vegas. Only two years and lots of promise. And already feeling cap mismanagement.

 

[BringBackLibertys]

This is incorrect

Sorry, I checked his page and don't see any teams outside of Russia. I know you are more informed on non-NA players, so I would like to know how much NA games he has played. I mean the style as well as the ice size, as they are both a lot to adjust to. I am not trying to say he wont be ready, I just don't see removing players we have in front of him BEFORE we know that he can do it.

 

[nyr2k2]

Sorry, I checked his page and don't see any teams outside of Russia. I know you are more informed on non-NA players, so I would like to know how much NA games he has played. I mean the style as well as the ice size, as they are both a lot to adjust to. I am not trying to say he wont be ready, I just don't see removing players we have in front of him BEFORE we know that he can do it.

I think what he's saying is that some KHL teams play on NHL-sized ice. It's not the North American-style, but it is the ice surface.

 

[Irishguy42]

Sorry, I checked his page and don't see any teams outside of Russia. I know you are more informed on non-NA players, so I would like to know how much NA games he has played. I mean the style as well as the ice size, as they are both a lot to adjust to. I am not trying to say he wont be ready, I just don't see removing players we have in front of him BEFORE we know that he can do it.

A good amount of KHL arenas have ice rinks that are the same size as the ones that are in the NHL.

That's what AK was going for, I think.

 

[BringBackLibertys]

I think what he's saying is that some KHL teams play on NHL-sized ice. It's not the North American-style, but it is the ice surface.

Well, that would help with gap control and stuff, depending on how often he did it, but the game itself is different as well (less time, more space). The real question is does he play his home games on small ice, or only like 5-10 games a year (because that won't help as much).

I just checked, both his home rinks for his entire career there are 200x100 (60x30 Euro) rinks. He does not normally play on small ice rinks...I am sure he gets a few games in, but that is not the same. We need to give him time to get use to NA hockey, on NA size rinks. I would MUCH rather he not do that in the NHL just because we decided to buy out Staal. My biggest fear is we rush these guys like the Oilers did and screw them up in the head.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Maybe this has been mentioned already before, but my service sucks here in Poland and there’s no wifi, so I don’t have the patience to go back and check. Why don’t we just buy out Namestnikov? Since he’s under 27 (I think that’s the cutoff), we would only have to pay for 1/3 of his contract, right? Then I wonder if we could trade a 50% retained Shattenkirk plus a Howden/Hajek/Barron for something.

That is an absurdly bad idea.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Well, that would help with gap control and stuff, depending on how often he did it, but the game itself is different as well (less time, more space). The real question is does he play his home games on small ice, or only like 5-10 games a year (because that won't help as much).

I just checked, both his home rinks for his entire career there are 200x100 (60x30 Euro) rinks. He does not normally play on small ice rinks...I am sure he gets a few games in, but that is not the same. We need to give him time to get use to NA hockey, on NA size rinks. I would MUCH rather he not do that in the NHL just because we decided to buy out Staal. My biggest fear is we rush these guys like the Oilers did and screw them up in the head.

He’s 22 and has pro experience. Him playing or even starting in the NHL wouldn’t be rushing him.

The adjustments that need to be made are not that huge. I’d wager that a need of adjustment Rykov would still be miles ahead of Staal.

 

[BringBackLibertys]

He’s 22 and has pro experience. Him playing or even starting in the NHL wouldn’t be rushing him.

The adjustments that need to be made are not that huge. I’d wager that a need of adjustment Rykov would still be miles ahead of Staal.

So, your wager....I am guessing Shipachyov would be on our first line, gobs of pro experience, obviously miles ahead of our current players..... You have to bring them over and see, you can't just assume they will adjust, that is all I am saying. Do not pencil these guys in, let them figure it out in the A and then bring them up when they show they are ready for NA style hockey.

For the record, it's not just Euro guys that I feel like this about, I want Fox in the A as well. The only exceptions are high 1st round picks that knock your socks off all preseason long, and even they can be sent down before they get to the game limit...