Roster Building Thread IV (2022-23): Luck of the Irish

[Machinehead]

@Machinehead, if all we do is teach our guys to be defensively responsible plugs how are bleeding high danger chances against and aren't the Islanders of a few years ago?

We're not.

We're 8th in shots against and 12th in expected goals against.

It might look like we are, but I'm beginning to think we need a stickied post reminding everyone that scoring is up over 50%.

You could certainly say the team wanted to be #HardToPlayAgainst and wasn't under Quinn because Quinn is just a moron with nothing he excels at at this level.

Gallant legitimately has this team playing pretty cagey. It's not Trotz, nor should it be imo, but I think the element of safety the Rangers like is there.

 

[Machinehead]

Points per 60 is not a great stat. As I understand it, it is points per 60 minutes of time the player plays, or ice time. If I am understanding that correctly, it is mashing multiple game events into 1 category which makes it a poor indicator of nuanced game-by-game information. Was the player sick? Did they get hurt? Were they moved to a lower/higher line? A game against the Blue Jackets and a game against the Bruins are 2 different beasts and just mashing the ice time together makes for a poor breakdown of a players scoring capability on a per game basis. Basically, not all games are equal which means not all minutes played are equal.

Because of this very reason, it is why a lot of people want to know how often a player makes an impact in games against higher competition. Playoff competition vs. non-Playoff competition. I don't know if Points per Game is any better, but I know there are too many flaws with Points per 60 for me to like it that much more over Points per Game.

Also, when I look at the leaders of both categories, it is often just the same guys, so was the breakdown really necessary in the first place? Haha

Points per 60 might have it's real use only be in the playoffs, when teams play each other multiple games in a row. That would make the stat far more viable.

The purpose of points per 60 is to compare the efficiency rates of players in different situations because *checks notes* "not all minutes are played equal."

If you take it to mean that the player lower in the lineup is better, then that's the way you take it. Nobody who's a "proponent" of it uses it that way.

It seems like you're overthinking it to me. What multiple events are being mashed into one category? Why would the player be sick or hurt? Some advanced states are doing some "math," if you will, to the players results. Points/60 is doing almost nothing but expressing it differently to give context. A raw points total is "points per season." Your salary is "dollars per 60." Miles per hour, which you see on your dashboard every day, is a per 60 measure.

Even if you use raw points and even if you include the powerplay, Lafreniere still ends up being about a 5th/6th forward in terms of production.

 

[Machinehead]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but Gallant does have redeeming qualities.

He's atrocious with lines and doesn't do a whole lot in-game. He's a cheerleader as Edge warned us he was.

That said, I would 100000% rather have this team than

1-29) Everyone
30) A pile of dog shit
31) Rangers

in shot and chance differential like we did most of AV's tenure and all of Quinn's.

At the very least, Gallant is staying out of the way of a talented team and they're playing a basic, noting-special structure in their own zone. AV took a talented team and actively made them play dumbass hockey.

 

[MrAlmost]

The purpose of points per 60 is to compare the efficiency rates of players in different situations because *checks notes* "not all minutes are played equal."

If you take it to mean that the player lower in the lineup is better, then that's the way you take it. Nobody who's a "proponent" of it uses it that way.

It seems like you're overthinking it to me. What multiple events are being mashed into one category? Why would the player be sick or hurt? Some advanced states are doing some "math," if you will, to the players results. Points/60 is doing almost nothing but expressing it differently to give context. A raw points total is "points per season." Your salary is "dollars per 60." Miles per hour, which you see on your dashboard every day, is a per 60 measure.

Even if you use raw points and even if you include the powerplay, Lafreniere still ends up being about a 5th/6th forward in terms of production.

Fair enough, but it seems to me you just used too many words per 60 to call me an asshole. ;-)

I'm not defending Laf or anything. Not that I think he needs to be defended in the first place. He has had another solid, though unspectacular season. He clearly needs to focus his workout in the offseason and perhaps be a bit more strict with it.

The multiple events being combined into 1 statistic are games. A player plays 15 minutes a night, which means 4 games constitute the 60 minute block. A lot can be different in those 4 games, which is why I am wary of combining all those into 1 category for the sake of efficiency. Perhaps points per 60 vs. playoff competition would be better. But then at that point are you putting too many parameters on a single statistic?

The sick or injuries remark was for if a player plays while sick or injured, as happens all the time, which can effect them on a game by game basis. Maybe it is overthinking, that's fair. I just am unsure about the variability of a per 60 breakdown in hockey.

 

[McRanger92]

Jeez this break between games feels like a lifetime

More time for people to think the sky is falling

 

[Deleted member 23124]

More time for people to think the sky is falling

If they looked up, they'd see it fell a long time ago.

 

[McRanger92]

I would hate to be a kid of some of yall. 21 and the book is written. 21 and all you focus on is 'shortcomings'.

Kakko has struggled since the lines have shuffled, but night in and night out he started the season so hot. No one remembers, not good enough. You're 21, BE CONSISTENT EVERY NIGHT.

Laffy is so far beyond the biggest abberation of a first overall pick. I wont even get into the politics of bonkers ass COVID and the lockdowns, but he is the only #1 pick to ever have to deal with that. It 100% stunted his growth. It is what it is. Does it mean he will never touch his 1OA ceiling? ....no. Does it suck? Yeah, for sure.

I know other people went through it too and might be succeeding (they also may have actually played when he didn't) but this is a remarkable outlier scenario, and everyone throws it to the wayside.

The way I hear about Buch, or Stutzle or whoever else.... really makes me wonder how much some people are thinking about their ex or best friends gf.

Didnt Laf just have a 2 goal game against Boston? I stayed away for a few days but why so much talk about him? Seems like he's been playing really well recently.

Also people pining over Stutzle are cringey. Talk about an easy player to play against. Diving all over the ice and getting flattened on hits by 5'11 guys like Vinny Trocheck. Lafreniere will be a better player player by the time they are both 26-27.

 

[Machinehead]

Fair enough, but it seems to me you just used too many words per 60 to call me an asshole. ;-)

I'm not defending Laf or anything. Not that I think he needs to be defended in the first place. He has had another solid, though unspectacular season. He clearly needs to focus his workout in the offseason and perhaps be a bit more strict with it.

The multiple events being combined into 1 statistic are games. A player plays 15 minutes a night, which means 4 games constitute the 60 minute block. A lot can be different in those 4 games, which is why I am wary of combining all those into 1 category for the sake of efficiency. Perhaps points per 60 vs. playoff competition would be better. But then at that point are you putting too many parameters on a single statistic?

The sick or injuries remark was for if a player plays while sick or injured, as happens all the time, which can effect them on a game by game basis. Maybe it is overthinking, that's fair. I just am unsure about the variability of a per 60 breakdown in hockey.

I think you're expecting too much out it tbh.

It's not supposed to be particularly variable and I don't think anybody says it is.

Saying "the games he played in were different from each other" is literally every stat.

It just gives context. Goodrow had 33 points last year and Lafreniere had 31, but Goodrow was one of the most overused players in the league in 21-22. The p/60 gap was fairly significant is Laf's favor.

You might say you already knew that. That means 1) ok great you get the concept and 2) you wouldn't know that if you don't watch the Rangers and don't underestimate the power of raw totals even if you do. It should be illustrated in some way. That's all the stat is doing.

I did a small exercise on Panarin re: the competition thing. Small sample, but it was disappointing. His scoring was random across levels of competition. The "stats nerd" take on competition is that it matters a lot less than we intuitively think it does but that's a whole other can of worms.

 

[Daves a mess]

Just watched Brady Tkachuks last 10 or 12 games closely. Was impressed before, but now?
Talk about intangibles.

The NYRs need Brennan Othmann to be 80% of Brady Tkachuk. He's our best shot. A franchise must to succeed imo. He's not getting traded thankfully, ( I think),
so his future is a Blueshirt.

Can't F this one up fellas.

His skill, attitude, heart, and desire to do anything to win Is fun to watch and I swear he's getting bigger and better every time I put on a Sens game.

For me he is must watch TV. Fearless and absolutely loved by the Sen fantbase.


They are all Ed Jovo over Bradys game there.

Without the creepiness.

 

[McRanger92]

If they looked up, they'd see it fell a long time ago.

What does this even mean?

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Just watched Brady Tkachuks last 10 or 12 games closely. Was impressed before, but now?
Talk about intangibles.

The NYRs need Brennan Othmann to be 80% of Brady Tkachuk. He's our best shot. A franchise must to succeed imo. He's not getting traded thankfully, ( I think),
so his future is a Blueshirt. Can't F this one up fellas.

His skill, attitude, heart, and desire to do anything to win Is fun to watch and I swear he's getting bigger and better every time I put on a Sens game.

For me he is must watch TV. Fearless and absolutely loved by the Sen fantbase.


They are all Ed Jovo over Bradys game there.

Without the creepiness.

Honestly I feel Othmann is gonna be similar to JT Miller, hopefully he doesnt take that long to figure it out

 

[EdJovanovski]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but Gallant does have redeeming qualities.

He's atrocious with lines and doesn't do a whole lot in-game. He's a cheerleader as Edge warned us he was.

That said, I would 100000% rather have this team than

1-29) Everyone
30) A pile of dog shit
31) Rangers

in shot and chance differential like we did most of AV's tenure and all of Quinn's.

At the very least, Gallant is staying out of the way of a talented team and they're playing a basic, noting-special structure in their own zone. AV took a talented team and actively made them play dumbass hockey.

Idk man I don’t think left to their own devices they’d be playing this dumbed down boring caveman hockey
They’d be playing like this




Coach should sit them down and show them old videos of themselves, videos of analysts talking about them as if they’re the next big thing and then tell them they f***ing suck and to play like what got them drafted so high. Tell them to disregard “playing the right way” grit, defense, and whatever other bullshit Gallant is telling them to do and just play their game

 

[McRanger92]

Just watched Brady Tkachuks last 10 or 12 games closely. Was impressed before, but now?
Talk about intangibles.

The NYRs need Brennan Othmann to be 80% of Brady Tkachuk. He's our best shot. A franchise must to succeed imo. He's not getting traded thankfully, ( I think),
so his future is a Blueshirt. Can't F this one up fellas.

His skill, attitude, heart, and desire to do anything to win Is fun to watch and I swear he's getting bigger and better every time I put on a Sens game.

For me he is must watch TV. Fearless and absolutely loved by the Sen fantbase.


They are all Ed Jovo over Bradys game there.

Without the creepiness.

There are not many Brady Tkachuk's around the league, and that Ottawa team would be in the Bedard sweepstakes without him. It's a lot to ask of Othmann to come in and be that player on a team thats not devoid of leadership and experience like the Senators were when Tkachuk showed up. I see Othmann as more of a TJ Oshie type player

 

[Machinehead]

Idk man I don’t think left to their own devices they’d be playing this dumbed down boring caveman hockey
They’d be playing like this

They played like this for a different head coach.

Panarin still plays a skill game.

This issue goes deeper than coaching.

 

[EdJovanovski]

They played like this for a different head coach.

Panarin still plays a skill game.

This issue goes deeper than coaching.

I added more to the edit lol but what do you think the issue is? I wasn’t that high on Kakko or Lafreniere from the beginning as their skating was always a red flag to me and I didn’t think they were was flashy or had as many tools as other players near the top of those drafts. But I think they should still be a lot better than they are now.

Watching videos of analysts talking about them or reading old posts is frankly depressing. People were saying Laf was better than MacKinnon & Matthews, the best since McDavid. People were saying Kakko was better than Hughes. These guys were both expected to come in and get 65-70pts their rookie season. Not even remotely close to that in their 4th & 3rd seasons. Something is very very wrong here.

I don’t think the fact that Panarin plays a skill game means that the coach is encouraging everybody to do so though. Panarin would still try stupid shit with Mike Keenan behind the bench lol

 

[Daves a mess]

There are not many Brady Tkachuk's around the league, and that Ottawa team would be in the Bedard sweepstakes without him. It's a lot to ask of Othmann to come in and be that player on a team thats not devoid of leadership and experience like the Senators were when Tkachuk showed up. I see Othmann as more of a TJ Oshie type player

I said this team NEEDS Brennan Othmann to be 80% of Brady Tkachuk. Not full Brady Tkachuk.

And if he's going to be a TJ type, this team needs 100% TJ Oshie.

 

[The Gloaming]

Panarin plays an 'I don't know what he's doing out there' game.

One minute he will try to fling the puck 70ft cross ice, the next minute, he will bury himself along the left wall like some grinder and try to grind for the puck.

Really odd play from him as a whole.

 

[Machinehead]

I added more to the edit lol but what do you think the issue is? I wasn’t that high on Kakko or Lafreniere from the beginning as their skating was always a red flag to me and I didn’t think they were was flashy or had as many tools as other players near the top of those drafts. But I think they should still be a lot better than they are now.

Watching videos of analysts talking about them or reading old posts is frankly depressing. People were saying Laf was better than MacKinnon & Matthews, the best since McDavid. People were saying Kakko was better than Hughes. These guys were both expected to come in and get 65-70pts their rookie season. Not even remotely close to that in their 4th & 3rd seasons. Something is very very wrong here.

I don’t think the fact that Panarin plays a skill game means that the coach is encouraging everybody to do so though. Panarin would still try stupid shit with Mike Keenan behind the bench lol

To make a long story short

1) Fundamental skills seem to either stagnate or deteriorate on the Rangers and that predates Gallant. This is different from your in-season coaching staff.

2) The Rangers didn't build confidence right away (Quinn failed at this big time) and they got replaced by better players as the team got more competitive.

 

[McRanger92]

They played like this for a different head coach.

Panarin still plays a skill game.

This issue goes deeper than coaching.

Lafreniere is just learning to play his game in the NHL as a below average skater compared to playing against his age group only. His willingness to get his nose dirty and score around the net are good qualities and I still think he's easily a 30+30 guy in his prime with even better "peak" production seasons.

Kakko I go back and forth on. Does he still lack so much confidence from the Quinn years? Was it Covid? Idk but all he ever does is stick handle away from the net. He's great on the boards but for 10 games he will look like Buchnevich and then the next 10 he'll look like Joel Armia. He hasnt scored a goal with the goalie in the net since the Seattle game a month ago. Chytil is in a goalless drought to but its not for lack of opportunities, like Kakko. He's got 220 NHL games under his belt and going into a contract year. He needs to have a Chytil like late season/playoff breakout or else all bets are off on his long-term future imo.

I said this team NEEDS Brennan Othmann to be 80% of Brady Tkachuk. Not full Brady Tkachuk.

And if he's going to be a TJ type, this team needs 100% TJ Oshie.

I agree (including the borderline hits)

 

[Leonardo87]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but Gallant does have redeeming qualities.

He's atrocious with lines and doesn't do a whole lot in-game. He's a cheerleader as Edge warned us he was.

That said, I would 100000% rather have this team than

1-29) Everyone
30) A pile of dog shit
31) Rangers

in shot and chance differential like we did most of AV's tenure and all of Quinn's.

At the very least, Gallant is staying out of the way of a talented team and they're playing a basic, noting-special structure in their own zone. AV took a talented team and actively made them play dumbass hockey.

Keeping Kane and Panarin together is evidence of that , I know it’s been only two games but will be interesting to see what he does if that line continues to struggle.

Will have a full team finally tomorrow, so will have a better idea.

Btw I miss Edge , hope he is ok.

 

[MrAlmost]

Othmann is having a down production year in the O this year, which sucks, but he has played less games this year. He might also be suffering a little from the "I don't want to be here anymore" syndrome. If he becomes a TJ Oshie, that would be awesome. Exactly what this team could use.

 

[Leonardo87]

Othmann is having a down production year in the O this year, which sucks, but he has played less games this year. He might also be suffering a little from the "I don't want to be here anymore" syndrome. If he becomes a TJ Oshie, that would be awesome. Exactly what this team could use.

He should be eligible for the Wolfpack next season, let him get his time there and then call him up next season if needed.

 

[McRanger92]

He should be eligible for the Wolfpack next season, let him get his time there and then call him up next season if needed.

Rangers dont really have that luxury with a flat cap. It's possible he doesnt break camp with the team but he's a talented prospect on an ELC, he wont be in Hartford for an extended period of time imo.

 

[Leonardo87]

@McRanger92 huh? Lol

 

[The Crypto Guy]

He should be eligible for the Wolfpack next season, let him get his time there and then call him up next season if needed.

Half the board already wants him in the NHL next season from opening night. It’s like nobody ever learns that rushing players doesnt work. Those are also probably the same posters who just continuously bash kakko and laf the last 2-3 years.