Speculation: Roster Building Thread II (2019/2020) - DeAngelo and Lemieux Left

[TheTakedown]

Bullet points create synergy

and thus creating more Boo Nieves

 

[True Blue]

Who made that argument?

There have been various post on "look at where they finished, look at the additions that were made, they will be that much better and compete for a playoff spot."

You do not have to look back that far. I was contending with oda who said that "they will push for a playoff spot". There's your argument. Going from a bottom-3 team to a playoff team is not often done. But when you look at the finishes and talk yourself in hitting aces on all the hands that you are dealt for this year, you get a playoff team.

 

[True Blue]

I wouldn't disagree that the season carried somewhat of an aura of good fortune, but I think the amount of OTLs isn't evidence supportive of that.

When people point to where they have finished last year (and not including you in this), the amount of loser points factors in. My only point is that despite whatever point total they had last year, they were in reality not much better, if at all, then the teams that finished bottom-3.

 

[TheBPA]

Not sure if this has been covered already, but Fanduel has the Rangers points over/under at 88.5 points.

I guess those experts projecting 73 - 77 points should be betting their life savings on the under.

 

[Thirty One]

Not sure if this has been covered already, but Fanduel has the Rangers points over/under at 88.5 points.

I guess those experts projecting 73 - 77 points should be betting their life savings on the under.

I would recommend betting no more than half of your life savings.

 

[nyr2k2]

There have been various post on "look at where they finished, look at the additions that were made, they will be that much better and compete for a playoff spot."

You do not have to look back that far. I was contending with oda who said that "they will push for a playoff spot". There's your argument. Going from a bottom-3 team to a playoff team is not often done. But when you look at the finishes and talk yourself in hitting aces on all the hands that you are dealt for this year, you get a playoff team.

OK, so it's kind of weird to have a discussion going with me/31 and then make reference to some conversation you may have been having with someone else.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Meh, I don't like this.

Eh Drury has only been on the job two seasons so it's not like we're holding him back. It's probably mutually beneficial for him to stay here at least another couple seasons. We keep an executive who helps us and he gets to gain more experience so when he takes a GM job he's as prepared as can be.

If this is happening 2 or 3 years from now I'd probably be more on your side.

 

[bobbop]

He might never be great defensively bobob and as such he might be a luxury we might not be able to afford in a season or so ....but I have my doubts he will lose his offensive skills which were quite visible in the 25? games he did play . I can't see those skills eroding over a Summer but I suppose stranger things have happened . Now on the other stuff....it is all his to lose as he has the whole world in front of him right now and hopefully he can handle and adapt to that part . He will have to suck it up and live with a modest raise and go for the big payoff next season . I sure hope he can keep focused and find himself some buckets of Dolan money next season....rooting for him !!!

He certainly showed skill last year. He also showed flashes of that skill in Arizona. The questions to me are a) can he play steady defense and b) can he maintain that offensive charisma over a longer period of time.

The money is what it is. He was never getting a long term commitment off of his body of work and circumstances have made this much less appealing. He will also have a lot of competition for power play time, where he showed the best. I hope he does great, I really do. I'm just in the St. Thomas camp right now.

 

[bobbop]

The best possible outcome for the Rangers this year is showing up at the last game of the season with a sign that says "Can't wait for next year!"

 

[Calad]

I'm on the fence with this OT debate.

It's easy to settle. How did the team do when it didn't go to OT? Theres your answer

 

[Thirty One]

The best possible outcome for the Rangers this year is showing up at the last game of the season with a sign that says "Can't wait for next year!"

Dreaming big.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

The best possible outcome for the Rangers this year is showing up at the last game of the season with a sign that says "Can't wait for next year!"

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the best possible outcome is to win the Stanley Cup.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Something to consider with ADA, since I see a lot of people (not in here right now, but over the past few months) extrapolating his point totals or talking about his P/60. He had 26 assists, 16 of which were secondary, or about 62%. In 16-17, when Brady Skjei had 34 assists, 20 of them were secondary, or 59%. Obviously we know Skjei was due for a regression. What is the average percent of assists that are secondary for a defenseman? I have no idea. Here are some other high-performing defensemen from last season:

Jacob Trouba: 25/42 (60%)--career year
Mark Giordano: 32/57 (56%)--career year
John Carlson: 20/57 (35%)
Torey Krug: 22/47 (47%)
Brent Burns: 22/67 (40%)
Keith Yandle: 17/53 (32%)
Morgan Reilly: 24/52 (46%)
Ty Barrie: 18/45 (40%)
Victor Hedman: 21/42 (50%)
Erik Karlsson: 19/42 (45%)
Kris Letang: 14/40 (35%)

Then I got tired of doing this exercise. However, what this shows me, is that the top defensemen around have a secondary assist rate, on average, between 35%-45%. You can see Trouba and Giordano had unusually high numbers relative to the rest, and they both had big-time career years in terms of assists as a result.

My point being, if we want to talk about DeAngelo consistently becoming a top point-producing defenseman, he's going to have to generate more primary assists and become less reliant on secondary assists. That may come with having better teammates, or it may not. Time will tell. Just use caution when looking at his numbers and assuming he can just continue producing at those rates moving forward. We saw with Skjei that it is unsustainable, and we may see it with Trouba (he can do other things so it's okay). Will we see it with ADA?

If you look at the past three years in total, you'll see that the A1/A2 split is pretty much 50/50 both 5v5 and on the PP (looking at the top-20, top-50 - i.e. scrubs not included).

5v5
Top 20: 48.82 A2%
Top 50: 50.01 A2%

5v4
Top 20: 49.92 A2%
Top 50: 49.54 A2%

Tony had 6 A1 and 8 A2 5v5 last year and is at 10+9 over the past three.

He did have an abnormal amount of A2 on the PP though (3+7 5v4, 9+12 over the past three), but he will likely spend more time on the top PP (and likely on a better unit) than he did last year which should balance it out.

5v5 defenceman points 16/17 to 18/19
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

5v4 defenceman points 16/17 to 18/19
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Fitzy]

I would recommend betting no more than half of your life savings.

Who the hell is going to take a fifty cent bet?

 

[True Blue]

OK, so it's kind of weird to have a discussion going with me/31 and then make reference to some conversation you may have been having with someone else.

When it came to you, this is what I responded to:

There was a lot of that, and there was a lot of "This team is bottom-three, for sure. Look at the other teams." Followed by arbitrarily proclaiming other **** teams to be much better than us.

My statement was actually in agreement with yours and cited the loser's point as a contributor to the narrative that some people (not you) were hanging their hat on as to why the Rangers were better than a bottom-3 team last year.

 

[eco's bones]

He certainly showed skill last year. He also showed flashes of that skill in Arizona. The questions to me are a) can he play steady defense and b) can he maintain that offensive charisma over a longer period of time.

The money is what it is. He was never getting a long term commitment off of his body of work and circumstances have made this much less appealing. He will also have a lot of competition for power play time, where he showed the best. I hope he does great, I really do. I'm just in the St. Thomas camp right now.

There's a lot I like about DeAngelo but I don't ever see him becoming a legit top pairing d-man. He just doesn't have enough size, strength and defensive ability and he gives up ground too easily--he can be outmuscled for loose pucks and he has issues controlling the front of his net. So that area needs to improve. His being able to take penalty killing minutes is another thing that needs to happen and for anyone thinking he does have 1st pairing upside to my eyes you cannot be a legit 1st pairing defenseman if you can't play and excel to some degree in all situations. A 1st pairing defenseman does not need sheltering--he's a guy you want out on the ice as much as possible and especially when the chips are down.

 

[Mikos87]

100% agreed. I'm amazed that nothing was done to address the PK situation under Ruff since they've been bottom-5 in the league both years under him. Part of it had to do with personnel changes, but there really are no excuses for structural design he's coaching. They're still overcommitting too many players down low and it's leaving the far side open for a shooting gallery.

Similar issues are leading to the NZ issues where they have guys getting caught way too deep on the forecheck, yielding way too much space for teams to counterattack off the rush. Not having their F3 shadow the center-ice outlet pass option is another big pet peeve of mine.

I think you covered the defensive zone part of it pretty well, and like you said, subbing out guys like Pionk and Vesey should help improve puck retrievals and turning more quickly on loose pucks.

The structural issues are the problem. It's amazing how predictable those breakdowns can be, you can't leave the slot open. That's fundamental. That's a one time on a high danger change. Goalies save less than a 70% spc in that scenario. No back pressure from F3 at all. That are facing up and looking confused as the puck passes them. You either press and cause the play to break, and better yet cause a turnover, or you turn around and back check and give your D a manageable chance at standing up at the blueline. Those things didn't happen under Torts.

Ruff is deploying the same coverage he had in Dallas and BUF, and it leaves the middle of the ice open. There were games where they slowed it down and trapped. But they had to chip and chase on the boards to make the structure fit. I think it's a big mistake to bring Ruff back. Let him be AGM of HFD, give him a title bump if they're afraid of firing him outright. There are dignified ways of getting around this issue. Lindy Ruff the person, is an awesome guy. He was a class act as a Ranger. Good guy. But ineffective coach.

 

[Blue Blooded]

There's a lot I like about DeAngelo but I don't ever see him becoming a legit top pairing d-man. He just doesn't have enough size, strength and defensive ability and he gives up ground too easily--he can be outmuscled for loose pucks and he has issues controlling the front of his net. So that area needs to improve. His being able to take penalty killing minutes is another thing that needs to happen and for anyone thinking he does have 1st pairing upside to my eyes you cannot be a legit 1st pairing defenseman if you can't play and excel to some degree in all situations. A 1st pairing defenseman does not need sheltering--he's a guy you want out on the ice as much as possible and especially when the chips are down.

If the difference between the offence and play driving he adds compared to his lack of defence 5v5 is bigger than any other defenceman on the team he should be the defenceman that gets the most 5v5 minutes given he can keep his level of play up in those minutes. Considering how well he did last year in though minutes with an anchor like Staal as his partner I consider the likelihood of him being able to do so in the future to be pretty good.

And FWIW in the exceedingly few PK minutes he's gotten (a total of 14:31 4v5 minutes as a Ranger) he's actually gotten great results.

 

[Mikos87]

I think Tony DeAngelo will be our top point getter from the blueline . He will out point the rest by at least 10 points....his skills are vastly underrated on here . He easily could have 60 points for us with a decent run PP for a change .

He had a great 2nd half last year offensively. There are two things I'd like him to change about his game. The first is to not have prolonged pinches where a forward has to skate backward because Tony hung around deep too long, and the second is becoming smarter and more effective when standing up at the blueline. He's got to defend with his feet there instead of his body.

I like his willingness to hit, but he's not effective when he either misses or gives up space on an easy entry.

If the coaching staff can reach through to him there and fix those issues, I think he's in for a very big contract next summer. Because the offense is there.

 

[leetch99]

He certainly showed skill last year. He also showed flashes of that skill in Arizona. The questions to me are a) can he play steady defense and b) can he maintain that offensive charisma over a longer period of time.

The money is what it is. He was never getting a long term commitment off of his body of work and circumstances have made this much less appealing. He will also have a lot of competition for power play time, where he showed the best. I hope he does great, I really do. I'm just in the St. Thomas camp right now.

Yup....he definitely will have more competition in camp this season . That is a given . Hopefully he has matured a bit more in the off season which could make for the world of difference for him and truthfully...the Rangers . He has more to lose than the team does....I sure hope somebody in his family life has reached him with that message . Myself....I loved watching him play last season albeit briefly and watching him KO Okposo....BONUS !!!! Haha...if he can't play defense then they should keep him in the Smith role . He can do everything better than Smith and much cheaper and still work on the PP .

 

[will1066]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the best possible outcome is to win the Stanley Cup.

My best personal outcome is to get Kakko's jersey off his back.

 

[kovazub94]

Just finished reading through the last two days worth of post with predictions for next season.

One variable that is not being emphasized enough is the impact that having Trouba will make on the defense corp. Skjei will be better either as his LD or shifted down to play on the 2nd pair. ADA will be better. Like many here I really wish Ruff would be let go now after Quinn has a year of NHL head coaching under his belt but even he won't be able to undermine this addition.

Athletic's 75 points is not the baseline - it should be a bottom line in case many things will go bad. Vegas' 86 are a lot more reasonable.

 

[bobbop]

Just curious... how much of D’Angelo’s improvement was due to Ruff’s coaching?

 

[gravey9]

Honestly, this whole prediction conversation seems to be missing the biggest influencer.

Turnover.

Yes, there are lots of kids. And lots of skill/talent added.

But in my years of following this team and hockey in general, you rarely see a team that's undergone this much turnover and to key aspects of the roster, to expect anything but inconsistency for a decent chunk of the season.

So much has to come together -- line combos, style of play, kids figuring out how to play in the NHL, the team figuring out which ones aren't ready, etc. Players understanding each other's tendencies, and communication in the D zone.

While I'm a huge fan of this offseason, as I considered the sheer amount of change to the core -- I couldn't help but get a few flashbacks to off-seasons from 15-20 years ago -- where they tried to bring in elite talent to turn the team around quickly. That off-season where they added Kamensky, Fleury, Quintal, Lefebvre. That year with Drury and Gomez. That off-season with Lindros and Lafontaine.

Those were different times. And I truly believe this is a much better situation. But when you make a ton of changes to the core of the team then the identity takes time to re-form. Plus chemistry, development of youth, getting the systems down, etc. I believe the more realistic way to view this upcoming season is:

first 30-40 games: up and down. forming the identity, figuring out the lineup, sorting out the kids.
next 20-30 games: (if all goes well) hitting some sort of stride and putting a few streaks together.
last 10-20 games: up-and-down. deadline moves, teams playing harder as they fight for playoff positioning.

At the end of the day, we just need: the kids to get better; To grow an identity as a hard-working team with speed and skill; for Trouba and Panarin to play up to their paychecks.

And I really don't care about the playoffs. I care about what happens with Chris Kreider more. He needs to stay healthy and have the season of his career -- a) so the kids get some space to grow without pressure. b) so he can be flipped for a future top 6 center prospect or a pick that allows us to draft one.

 

[Irishguy42]

Just curious... how much of D’Angelo’s improvement was due to Ruff’s coaching?