Speculation: Roster Building Thread 2019-20: Part XXIX

[Oscar Lindberg]

Boston fans are about as reasonable as we are...

I guess that makes sense, some of them are kicking around Boston trading for Timo Meier which is just.... something

 

[haveandare]

Think about this. Derek Brassard was a little younger when we traded him for Zibanajad....that worked out pretty well for us didnt it? This could work out just as well as Kreider is the top trade target around the league where as Brassard wasnt.
I'd be interested in a trade that brought DeBrusk + from boston, think the guy needs a change of scenery.

Brassard had 3 years left on his deal, its a really different situation.

Kreider, as a rental, will go to a contending team and those teams don't give up prime young assets for rentals. He'll get us a late first and an okay but not great prospect I'd bet. Boston wouldn't move someone like DeBrusk for him I don't think. They'd want to add him to DeBrusk to win the cup this year.

 

[True Blue]

It's an easy no. That $7M can be allocated for RFA extensions or to take on a different player that's currently under contract (Clayton Keller?).

The NMC down the stretch is what will be a killer, and it would only be worsened by the contract being signing-bonus heavy. I like Kreids a lot, but that contract just simply will not age well.

I posted this on the Kreider thread and will go on record here. My best offer would be $6x6 with a full NMC clause as the sweetener. Not a penny more.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Brassard had 3 years left on his deal, its a really different situation.

Kreider, as a rental, will go to a contending team and those teams don't give up prime young assets for rentals. He'll get us a late first and an okay but not great prospect I'd bet. Boston wouldn't move someone like DeBrusk for him I don't think. They'd want to add him to DeBrusk to win the cup this year.

Yes but what I was getting at was that at the time Brassard was the better player but we wouldnt reverse that trade that's for sure. Kreider might be the best player in a trade now but it doesnt mean this wont end better for us.

 

[haveandare]

Yes but what I was getting at was that at the time Brassard was the better player but we wouldnt reverse that trade that's for sure. Kreider might be the best player in a trade now but it doesnt mean this wont end better for us.

Brassard scored 7 more points than Mika the season before they were traded, and Mika is 5 years younger. If we could move Kreider for another LW who is 5 years younger and scored just slightly less than him, I think everyone would be in favor of that. But as a rental he won't return that.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Actually he has been very consistent...

What Edge said. He started off blazing hot last season and ended with less than 30 goals. He's been prone to huge droughts at multiple times in his career. He's consistently a 20+ goal guy but he should have had 40 last year the way he started.

 

[Ken1994]

It is what is it.

Kreider's camp is set at 7x7, do you sign it?

I would do it. That is based on thinking playoffs next year and serious contention thereafter.
Also based on a rising cap, the cost of replacing him and that I don't mind if he is paid that as a third or fourth liner for a couple of years if I get him at his peak or near it for five years.

 

[DutchShamrock]

Just checked the stats, he's 14th in goals from LWs since 2015-16. Just for conversation's sake, #25-30 in order are Guentzal (6m), Connor (7.1m), Perron(4m), Tkachuk(7m), Pearson(3.75 from 2017) & Killorn (4.45 from 2016).

The difference in money there varies of course. Perron is on a sweet deal, can't say I know enough about him or that deal to say if there's some reason he signed for so little compared to guys who are seemingly his peers. Pearson & Killorn are cheap, but signed 3 and 4 years back respectively. Not sure what they'd make now. I'd guess less than 7m, how much less I don't know.

Point being, the difference in pay there isn't very big for the most part. There are some guys on real gems of deals in that range, as there are in all ranges, but for the most part guys who have signed recently make 6-7m. For those cheaper guys, can we get them? When they're due new deals in a year or two, how much will they want?

Imo how much a specific player is needed is about a lot more than just how good they are. It's some combination of that, what potential replacements are in the system or on on the market, what goals the team has, etc. In this case, Kreider is very good but not elite, there is no potential replacement in the system, and the team's goals are to start improving and bringing along the young core in a year or two at most. All of those things combine in my eyes to make him a pretty necessary piece. I'm not saying he's the only path forward, I'm saying we have him now, he's very important to this team, and the ideas about replacing him are being made out to be a hell of a lot easier and more realistic than they really are. These available, underpaid top 6 players who score in a very narrow range and want to be paid significantly less than 7m in the near future aren't easy to identify let alone trade for, let alone trade for at a price that is less painful than keeping Kreider.

Guentzel: came to the league in 2016, 100 fewer games than Kreider.
Connor: 2017. 110 fewer games.
Tkachuk: 2016: 65 fewer games.
They are in a lower range simply because they haven't had the chance to play more games. This isn't the compensation rate for 110+ goals in a 6 year span.

In fact, Perron, Pearson and Killorn are the only examples you cite that have been in the league as long as Kreider. So when you actually look at the context of these stats, I'm even more convinced that paying over $5.5m on a long deal is foolish. It illustrates the importance of acquiring cheap, young and talented players, as well as the going rate for aging forwards.

 

[Lion Hound]

General question. Prior to a trade, can the acquiring team discuss any contract talks with the agent or player if the current team gives them permission to?

 

[True Blue]

The real question is, what team is gonna be the one who gets Kreider?

Which team sees a finite window and this will go all-in?

 

[Thirty One]

General question. Prior to a trade, can the acquiring team discuss any contract talks with the agent or player if the current team gives them permission to?

They can.

 

[Cassano]

General question. Prior to a trade, can the acquiring team discuss any contract talks with the agent or player if the current team gives them permission to?

Yes. I believe this happened when Vegas traded for Stone.

 

[Kovalev27]

Don't overthink this Tawnos. It's not meant to be that deep of a dive.

7x7 sign me up

plenty of guys on the roster I’d blow out before worrying about paying my best players what they’re worth.

and I know everyone cringes when I say it but it’s the truth and it’s part of any business decision, at the end of the day if he can’t do his job in 4 5 years we will buy him out like we and others have done a million other times. It’s hardly end of the world type money.

If he wanted 10 mil and his name was Taylor Hall you’d say goodbye

but I’m far more concerned about giving multiple years to guys like Fast and Strome and Buchnevich who’s barely in shape as a 24 year old let alone when he’s 25 26 and wants term

 

[Edge]

Case in point, I think a lot more people are willing to go to 7x7 then we probably suspect.

 

[haveandare]

Guentzel: came to the league in 2016, 100 fewer games than Kreider.
Connor: 2017. 110 fewer games.
Tkachuk: 2016: 65 fewer games.
They are in a lower range simply because they haven't had the chance to play more games. This isn't the compensation rate for 110+ goals in a 6 year span.

In fact, Perron, Pearson and Killorn are the only examples you cite that have been in the league as long as Kreider. So when you actually look at the context of these stats, I'm even more convinced that paying over $5.5m on a long deal is foolish. It illustrates the importance of acquiring cheap, young and talented players, as well as the going rate for aging forwards.

Yeah, going by goals since X year isn't a great measuring stick by any means. I didn't bring it up or suggest using it as a metric, I was responding to a comment citing it.

They've played less games and they also didn't sign for those numbers as UFAs, so they'd likely be making a hell of a lot more in Kreider's position.

Those guys aren't cheap by any means - they're making more than you want Kreider to make and they're doing it on RFA deals.

 

[JimmyG89]

Case in point, I think a lot more people are willing to go to 7x7 then we probably suspect.

I balk more at the NMC than the actual numbers. If he wants that security in his deal, he has to be willing to come off that number a little bit.

With how things have gone where Staal, Girardi, and to a lesser extent Hank, these are guys that you'd love to potentially move but you have to ask them first, and if they don't want to go, you are stuck with them, no matter who wants them and for what.

That's a very big bargaining chip. Come off that 7x7 and come down to 7x6.5 and I'd give a NMC up to the last season and you could give a very limited NTC on that final year. At least it gives some options.

 

[Kovalev27]

Case in point, I think a lot more people are willing to go to 7x7 then we probably suspect.

if you didn’t suspect that to be my answer I don’t know what to tell you. Been pretty consistent!

 

[JimmyG89]

Yeah, going by goals since X year isn't a great measuring stick by any means. I didn't bring it up or suggest using it as a metric, I was responding to a comment citing it.

They've played less games and they also didn't sign for those numbers as UFAs, so they'd likely be making a hell of a lot more in Kreider's position.

Those guys aren't cheap by any means - they're making more than you want Kreider to make and they're doing it on RFA deals.

See my post earlier in the thread where I used G/GP over that time and made it 200GP minimum. You see a much clearer picture in my eyes and it's pretty much Anders Lee with the Islanders. That deal was also done after 7/1 and he could have gone anywhere. There was word he never intended to go anywhere, but that option was still there if they didn't hammer the details out.

7x7 without a NMC, but a NTC, or 7x6.5 with a NMC for the first 6 and a very restricted NTC the last year.

 

[Ola]

A problem with Kreider’s drought is that you can’t count on him performing when you need him the most.

Kreider for example has just 6 pts in his last 20 PO games. He was so low key in that huge Ottawa series until like the last game. The start of this season was huge for us but we got behind instantly and Kreider was nowhere to be seen the first like what 2 months.

I like Kreider more than ever before and I am also less concerned by his expected physical demise. There are no law of nature that a PF will break down over night when they are 28 or 30 or 32 or 34. I think a big factor for many of these guys crashing was the game changing a ton — while — they got older. How effective would prime Lucic be today? Surely not as effective. And he is also built differently, Kreider is in no way “heavy” in relation to his strength.

But all-in-all I am just sceptical of him being worth it. Given Gorton’s contract management we will have cap victims. Kreider will return a ton. Kreider will not perform every time we need him, sometimes he will but we could easily end up again in desperate need of what he could bring without seing anything at all of it.

Make the trade.

 

[Edge]

if you didn’t suspect that to be my answer I don’t know what to tell you. Been pretty consistent!

Oh no, I always knew where you stood.

I don't think anyone is ever confused where you stand on a topic.

 

[Kovalev27]

Oh no, I always knew where you stood.

I don't think anyone is ever confused where you stand on a topic.

haha well said

 

[Kovalev27]

A problem with Kreider’s drought is that you can’t count on him performing when you need him the most.

Kreider for example has just 6 pts in his last 20 PO games. He was so low key in that huge Ottawa series until like the last game. The start of this season was huge for us but we got behind instantly and Kreider was nowhere to be seen the first like what 2 months.

I like Kreider more than ever before and I am also less concerned by his expected physical demise. There are no law of nature that a PF will break down over night when they are 28 or 30 or 32 or 34. I think a big factor for many of these guys crashing was the game changing a ton — while — they got older. How effective would prime Lucic be today? Surely not as effective. And he is also built differently, Kreider is in no way “heavy” in relation to his strength.

But all-in-all I am just sceptical of him being worth it. Given Gorton’s contract management we will have cap victims. Kreider will return a ton. Kreider will not perform every time we need him, sometimes he will but we could easily end up again in desperate need of what he could bring without seing anything at all of it.

Make the trade.

you make a good point in here and it’s that the game changed on a lot of these guys too. The speed of the game really exposed guys like redden like drury like lucic. In their primes they’d still struggle in the newer nhl.

Kreider is literally quite possibly behind one 2 guys maybe the fastest guy in the league. He’s also built like a piece of iron. And with the way the league is today with smaller Dmen and rules against obstruction he is an absolute nightmare match up for many teams. Especially in front of the net.

if you want to give me reasons for trading him that revolve around what the assets might be or who he’d be holding back that’s one thing and I’d have those discussions but when the reason being that in year 5 he might break down it’s just the least legit reason for trading him imo

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Case in point, I think a lot more people are willing to go to 7x7 then we probably suspect.

At this point it wouldn't shock me if they already made an offer and his camp said no.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Which team sees a finite window and this will go all-in?

If you keep waiting for the perfect time, you end up missing your opportunity.

I can see Colorado holding off for another year before trying to strike, but there are plenty of other contenders who would jump at the opportunity (and some non contenders too.)

 

[JimmyG89]

if you want to give me reasons for trading him that revolve around what the assets might be or who he’d be holding back that’s one thing and I’d have those discussions but when the reason being that in year 5 he might break down it’s just the least legit reason for trading him imo

This I agree with. Obviously cap projections go into this. By then, do we know how much it will be? Will a 7M cap hit be 7% of the cap? Right now that would be a 5.7M contract. Essentially what Staal is making at the moment.

Now, I'm not sure it hits 100M in 5 years. That's a huge jump. The new TV deals will increase it quite a bit though. The 100M would be super aggressive, but what wouldn't be? is 90M too much for 5 years down the line? I think it's pretty safe to say that's where we would be. My hope is they have multi-network deals, like the NBA. It needs to happen. MLB, NBA, and NFL have multiple network deals. If Bettman and company go exclusive again, it just hurts the game more.

If we look at it where Kreider becomes more of a Jason Chimera type by then, a 3rd liner that could pop in 20 goals due to speed and size, is that something we should be beat up about taking a chunk of the cap like that?

The only issue would be that having Kreider hurts keeping more impactful players then. I think we're at the point where removing another veteran could cause more harm than the assets coming back, unless the plan is to execute another move like Hayes where you move Kreider, take part of those assets, and get another guy that can lead in the near future.