Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part IV

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Part of the reason I'm less worried about falling off is that even if we lose, we're pretty good at getting loser points. Last year we only lost in regulation and never went to OT/SO, lack of loser points really killed us.

If we win half of our games and take a quarter of our losses into overtime we'll be fine. 22 games left. 11-8-3 would bring us to 95 points which should be safe. CBJ would need 29 of their remaining 42 points, which is a .690 pts% pace to pass us. NYR would 34 of 44 remaining points need a .729% pace.

The idea of losing 5 straight in regulation seems very unlikely to me, and that's about what it would take for NYR or CBJ to catch up. Especially with Markstrom coming back and Jack's ability to go sicko mode and win a game by himself. A betting man would put money on NJ.

They'll be fine playoffs wise, the ceiling is what worries me with them which is what I've been ranting about the past page and a half about

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

I dont care about credit. I just want it done and am hoping we are in for a nice surprise next week. They need a shot in the arm badly

It seems many are operating under the assumption that changing things comes without sacrifice and adjustment

I understand many are frustrated with how long this process has taken.. but would they prefer to rush? We have two local rivals that did this and we all know how its turned out

Depth was lost because of circumstance, not desire:

-Zetterlund was lost for Meier

-Sharangovich for Tofolli when we likely werent going to sign him

-Boqvist was a coin flip on when he was useful; was speedy though, ill give him that

-Wood was never signing here and i dont think many pushed back on this at the time

-Zacha (decided to include him) needed a change of scenery and im glad he got it, though we sold cheap there

-Severson wasnt getting long-term from us (even if maybe he deserved it sadly)

-Marino was a good deal considering we had Pesce in the bag

-Holtz wasnt working out nor do i think we could afford to give him the time to

-Thompson wasnt showing enough to stick, especially when our bottom-6 was a positive

-Bahl i wanted to keep admittedly but i think that worked out just fine for both teams and the player

-Ohkotyuk was a fun prospect and i havent followed him since; sadly a filler piece

-Smith was directly replaced by Dillon whos slightly better, in my opinion

-McLeod, the big kicker in all of this; sadly, if he wasnt an accused sexual predator and still on the team, a lot of this noise would be quieted as I believe hed be our 3C currently (perhaps overmatched slightly in that spot)

We spent the last year getting bigger and stronger; something most fans and outside pundits recognized was an issue of ours. This seems to be no more (outside our top-6 that is, minus Meier)

The next step is to replace some of that skill and speed we lost; a natural step after making some changes that involved another archetype.

If it was as easy as keeping all the speed and skill while adding grit and size, I think most teams would be contending anytime they have enough talent to do so. But its not because that makeup is hard to get when shuffling lockers around

Fitzgerald isnt some saint whos clear of wrongdoing; but he is onto something that many might not notice. Its harder to find big, physical, and skilled talent than it is small, skilled, and speedy talent. If Fitzgerald's plan is to attack one through the draft, while supplanting the other through other means, than I dont see the issue there; in fact it seems logical (though theres no need for him to abandon the other, nor do I think he has)

TLDR; I think Fitzgerald clearly has a plan that required temporary sacrifice of depth talent for a new mix of size and physicality, and now its on him to replace that. Same way a medication can help one issue but cause another; its on the doctor and patient (team and GM) to figure out how to remedy the second-hand issue

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Players who have as much total value as McLeod, absolutely. Players with his player profile, big, physical, fast, good passer, lousy shooter, great at zone entries, not great at creating offense, great at faceoffs - there's probably none. There are rare skillsets which are not necessarily all that valuable.



They would've had to cut ties with McLeod altogether to sign Suter, which obviously would've been the right decision in hindsight, but I do not see why Suter would sign here even if they had done that. One of the things that people don't seem to do much on this board is think about why a player might make a decision. Suter looks at the depth chart with Hischier, Hughes, and Haula - where does he see himself? 3rd on that list while he's making half the money as the guy you're putting 4th? Delusional.

You're projecting that statement on to McLeod - we'll never know why he suddenly improved in 2022. Was Blake Coleman under some pending indictment in 2018 when he suddenly became a trusted scorer? Guys figure the league out.



McLeod was big and physical. His player type is very much suited for playoff hockey.



He has not been this way his entire career. He's finished now. What he's doing now has nothing to do with the rest of his career.

Well no shit, you're not finding a 1:1 skill set with bottom 6 players. It's inherently why they're bottom 6 players, they do certain things right and other things abysmal as to why they're playing down there in the first place. You don't find exact replacements for that. And I gave you a blue print of what they could've done, they didn't have to re-sign Bastian, they already scoffed at Boqvist's qualifying offer that year. There, that's Suter's money right there. It doesn't have to be Suter, it could've been virtually anyone else with the baggage of McLeod + better player.

Lmao, complete asinine to compare Coleman to McLeod when Coleman outscored McLeod's goal totals in the first 3 years of his career v McLeod's entire career. And McLeod suddenly becoming decent NHLer after being garbage most of his career is ironic timing is all I said. You read into what you want.

McLeod was one of the worst players in the Carolina series despite that fourth line scoring, they were consistently caved in by Carolina and got bodied the most despite being "playoff players"

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

I don't think that's what my post said? I said Nemec was fine with the understanding that Severson might walk and it was also pre them trading for Marino that same summer. Holtz was taken because they wanted a shooter next to Jack because Jack was abysmal ass cheeks as a shooter his first 2 years and then he developed a shot that was elite that made Holtz utterly useless next to him.

Perhaps thats what you meant. I saw 'Holtz was the right pick' (hindsight and all but perhaps we did pick wrong here, going for strict need over BPA) and then right after 'Nemec, sure'

Though both filled a draft need, I feel Nemec was closer to BPA than Holtz was at the time for their respective draft spots. But this was purely based on my own feelings

 

[Triumph]

Well no shit, you're not finding a 1:1 skill set with bottom 6 players. It's inherently why they're bottom 6 players, they do certain things right and other things abysmal as to why they're playing down there in the first place.

This is something entirely different from what you were saying before. Nor do I believe it to be true.

You don't find exact replacements for that. And I gave you a blue print of what they could've done, they didn't have to re-sign Bastian, they already scoffed at Boqvist's qualifying offer that year. There, that's Suter's money right there. It doesn't have to be Suter, it could've been virtually anyone else with the baggage of McLeod + better player.

You are missing the point. Players sign where they think they will have opportunity, it wasn't about money with Suter, which the Devils easily could've fit in, it's about opportunity. With 3 centers above him making more money, there's not a lot of opportunity.

Lmao, complete asinine to compare Coleman to McLeod when Coleman outscored McLeod's goal totals in the first 3 years of his career v McLeod's entire career. And McLeod suddenly becoming decent NHLer after being garbage most of his career is ironic timing is all I said. You read into what you want.

The point, which zoomed right past you, is that there are players who are around for a long time who don't look like anything special and then become good players. If not for the last 3 weeks we would've been arguing Kovacevic as one of these.

McLeod was one of the worst players in the Carolina series despite that fourth line scoring, they were consistently caved in by Carolina and got bodied the most despite being "playoff players"

And then he came back to have the best season of his career. I don't like arguing about McLeod because he's gone for a very good reason. That said, that was all 2 years ago and not worth discussing now.

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

Also, my (too) long post above doesnt even touch on the fact that Keefe has us playing far more responsible hockey. In 22-23, we were 4th in GF but 8th in GA; this year we are only 12th in GF but also 4th in GA

Im of the mindset that, at some point, these guys will know how to instinctively defend with greater detail while turning up the offensive dial more than they can now

The teams' core players were brought up under systems that abandoned this defensive detail. Add in more depth scoring and additional talent as the cap goes up, and theres your lost goals. Along with the young defenders coming of age, I think thats where your ascendance back to top-5 in GF comes from; all while keeping a top-5 GA system

 

[Satans Hockey]

I understand many are frustrated with how long this process has taken.. but would they prefer to rush? We have two local rivals that did this and we all know how its turned out

Half a decade, it's not like it's been 2 years.

 

[Mr Bojanglez]

McLeod was beyond mediocre in the 2023 playoffs, he had a few goals here and there and the obvious big one in Game 7 but the idea that he was the center version of Randy McKay reincarnated is beyond laughable. The fourth line got absolutely smoked in the Carolina series

Palat made the play

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

Half a decade, it's not like it's been 2 years.

Not singling you out but this is exactly what I mean lol. We as fans are impatient and would throw away whats being built for a sense of accomplishment; one that likely never reaches what could have been

Just because its been longer than we wanted, we should change course? This is simply a sunken cost fallacy involving time. We arent the Sabres who havent made the playoffs in how long. We arent even to the level of the Oilers who took nearly a decade after drafting Connor freaking McDavid lmao

If you or anyone else can point me to a team who contended or won a Cup within five (or even 7-8 for that matter) years after drafting their star player, id be very interested to see it. I know Sidney Crosby is an obvious answer; but who else? Not McDavid, not MacKinnon, not Ovechkin, not Kucherov...

The only thing Fitzgerald inherited was Hischier, Bratt, and a high draft pick in Hughes; and yes, thats about as amazing a jump start as you can get. But to expect an entire roster to not only be filled out, but filled out as a contender.. and in five years or less?

Heck, Luke/Nemec/Casey/Silayev arent even 22yo or in the league yet lol

Its simply unrealistic and I dont believe theres history or precedence to prove we arent exactly on time with where our trajectory is slated.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

It seems many are operating under the assumption that changing things comes without sacrifice and adjustment

I understand many are frustrated with how long this process has taken.. but would they prefer to rush? We have two local rivals that did this and we all know how its turned out

Depth was lost because of circumstance, not desire:

-Zetterlund was lost for Meier

-Sharangovich for Tofolli when we likely werent going to sign him

-Boqvist was a coin flip on when he was useful; was speedy though, ill give him that

-Wood was never signing here and i dont think many pushed back on this at the time

-Zacha (decided to include him) needed a change of scenery and im glad he got it, though we sold cheap there

-Severson wasnt getting long-term from us (even if maybe he deserved it sadly)

-Marino was a good deal considering we had Pesce in the bag

-Holtz wasnt working out nor do i think we could afford to give him the time to

-Thompson wasnt showing enough to stick, especially when our bottom-6 was a positive

-Bahl i wanted to keep admittedly but i think that worked out just fine for both teams and the player

-Ohkotyuk was a fun prospect and i havent followed him since; sadly a filler piece

-Smith was directly replaced by Dillon whos slightly better, in my opinion

-McLeod, the big kicker in all of this; sadly, if he wasnt an accused sexual predator and still on the team, a lot of this noise would be quieted as I believe hed be our 3C currently (perhaps overmatched slightly in that spot)

We spent the last year getting bigger and stronger; something most fans and outside pundits recognized was an issue of ours. This seems to be no more (outside our top-6 that is, minus Meier)

The next step is to replace some of that skill and speed we lost; a natural step after making some changes that involved another archetype.

If it was as easy as keeping all the speed and skill while adding grit and size, I think most teams would be contending anytime they have enough talent to do so. But its not because that makeup is hard to get when shuffling lockers around

Fitzgerald isnt some saint whos clear of wrongdoing; but he is onto something that many might not notice. Its harder to find big, physical, and skilled talent than it is small, skilled, and speedy talent. If Fitzgerald's plan is to attack one through the draft, while supplanting the other through other means, than I dont see the issue there; in fact it seems logical (though theres no need for him to abandon the other, nor do I think he has)

TLDR; I think Fitzgerald clearly has a plan that required temporary sacrifice of depth talent for a new mix of size and physicality, and now its on him to replace that. Same way a medication can help one issue but cause another; its on the doctor and patient (team and GM) to figure out how to remedy the second-hand issue

Well said.

Fitz undoubtedly has to do better drafting though.

 

[HoliksGhost]

 

[Satans Hockey]

Not singling you out but this is exactly what I mean lol. We as fans are impatient and would throw away whats being built for a sense of accomplishment; one that likely never reaches what could have been

Just because its been longer than we wanted, we should change course? This is simply a sunken cost fallacy involving time. We arent the Sabres who havent made the playoffs in how long. We arent even to the level of the Oilers who took nearly a decade after drafting Connor freaking McDavid lmao

If you or anyone else can point me to a team who contended or won a Cup within five (or even 7-8 for that matter) years after drafting their star player, id be very interested to see it. I know Sidney Crosby is an obvious answer; but who else? Not McDavid, not MacKinnon, not Ovechkin, not Kucherov...

The only thing Fitzgerald inherited was Hischier and a high draft pick in Hughes; and yes, thats about as amazing a jump start as you can get. But to expect an entire roster to not only be filled out, but filled out as a contender.. and in five years or less?

Heck, Luke/Nemec/Casey/Silayev arent even 22yo or in the league yet lol

Its simply unrealistic and I dont believe theres history or precedence to prove we arent exactly on time with where our trajectory is slated.

Patrick Kane and Toews is another one, won the cup in their 3rd season.

Ovis team might not have made the finals but they missed the playoffs the first two years and then won 4 straight division titles and 5 division titles out 6 seasons. Did they choke in the playoffs? Sure but they were definitely contenders every year.

MacKinnons team made the playoffs the first season, missed the next 3 and haven't missed since, 7 straight and 8 straight this year if they make it.

Kucherov won back to back cups in seasons 7/8. He's also not a first round pick but made the finals in his 2nd season in 2015 and they've only missed the playoffs 1x since.

Even McDavid while missing 3 out of the first 4 seasons is now on 5 straight seasons of the playoffs going on 6.

I'm fine being labeled as impatient at this point. Way too many years of "next season is the year they turn the corner" The team regressed a ton last year and missed the playoffs. Now the team is trending downwards again after a good start. Shits just tiresome.

I also fully admit it's also because of how bad the team has been for so long. 2 playoff appearances since the cup run in 2012 is still a factual statement no matter whose fault it is. 1 playoff series win in 12 years is an insanely long time.

 

[Cheddabombs]

View attachment 984426

Good good, team could really use a hat trick from him this weekend

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

Patrick Kane and Toews is another one, won the cup in their 3rd season.

Ovis team might not have made the finals but they missed the playoffs the first two years and then won 4 straight division titles and 5 division titles out 6 seasons. Did they choke in the playoffs? Sure but they were definitely contenders every year.

MacKinnons team made the playoffs the first season, missed the next 3 and haven't missed since, 7 straight and 8 straight this year if they make it.

Kucherov won back to back cups in seasons 7/8. He's also not a first round pick but made the finals in his 2nd season in 2015 and they've only missed the playoffs 1x since.

Even McDavid while missing 3 out of the first 4 seasons is now on 5 straight seasons of the playoffs going on 6.

I'm fine being labeled as impatient at this point. Way too many years of "next season is the year they turn the corner" The team regressed a ton last year and missed the playoffs. Now the team is trending downwards again after a good start. Shits just tiresome.

I also fully admit it's also because of how bad the team has been for so long. 2 playoff appearances since the cup run in 2012 is still a factual statement no matter whose fault it is. 1 playoff series win in 12 years is an insanely long time.

Edit: good catch with Kane/Toews, had a feeling thered be one or two I missed lol. If only my memory was as good as Id like

While I respect your laying out of those teams and what they did, they didnt win the Cup; not downplaying your thoughts, just making sure the original premise is remembered

Most of those teams you named also didnt come out of one of the longest cycles of success in the last 50 years of NHL hockey. The Devils from 88-12 only missed the playoffs three times, going to five Stanley Cup Finals and winning three (woohoo!)

Not only does coming out of such a long window hurt, but it was during the salary cap (and a very slow moving cap at that). The team was devoid of talent coming up minus Damon Severson, was the oldest roster in hockey (2014), and had a GM in Lou who moved everything to compete in 2012

Fast forward to Nico's draft, where I believe the argument can be made to start the deadline. Personally Id argue it starts with Jack, but I digress. Since then weve only made the playoffs twice, perhaps a third time this year. But that was also the true start of the rebuild

2013-2016 were filler years; a time-skip of sorts (for any One Piece fans out there lmfao)

Not to mention last season was a major fluke. Anybody who is objective (not insinuating you) can plainly see the injuries and goaltending cost us last year.

So, in actuality, the team is pacing quite well when you consider real-world factors and the average timeline of a team going from drafting high to making the playoffs reliably to contending

Just to show my math on this btw, Ive been saying (mostly to my friends, only once or twice on this website) I believe we are true contenders around the time Nico is up for a new contract. Thats when we will have the young defense ready to go, more depth and some prospects trying out up front, and a team thats been operating under Keefe for three seasons at that point

By 2027, I foresee the Devils contending at a high level for at least a half-decade. Things change of course, and it could begin sooner or we could never reach that point; but I believe the Devils are on track, whether thats with Fitzgerald in the future or not

 

[Oneiro]

Talking about the Blackhawks after Toews and Kane while completely ignoring that they drafted Keith, Ladd, etc. way way before those guys got there. Ditto for LA and Dustin Brown, COL with MacKinnon, etc. Ovi came up with a team that had one of the best farm systems in hockey, if not the best.

Take your medicine with this process. You'll be less mad.

And this group is very close. Again, it's the easiest problem to solve.

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

Talking about the Blackhawks after Toews and Kane while completely ignoring that they drafted Keith, Ladd, etc. way way before those guys got there. Ditto for LA and Dustin Brown, COL with MacKinnon, etc. Ovi came up with a team that had one of the best farm systems in hockey, if not the best.

Take your medicine with this process. You'll be less mad.

Though your point goes in line with mine, Id like to add that the poster was simply responding to my request for examples of teams who's best players were drafted near their beginning of contention. Kane and Toews fit this mold, even if I very much think Keith was more than a major factor in their success.

Kane was the breadwinner, however

 

[Oneiro]

Though your point goes in line with mine, Id like to add that the poster was simply responding to my request for examples of teams who's best players were drafted near their beginning of contention. Kane and Toews fit this mold, even if I very much think Keith was more than a major factor in their success.

Kane was the breadwinner, however

Right, understood.

I guess my broader point was that it's almost always taken a long time. Either the team is waiting for their elite keystone pieces, like Detroit is now, or the stars are waiting for the right support, like Toronto.

I do think we all grew up with Lou's no holds barred competitiveness - this is a millennial / gen x board for the most part - and it seems like it colors expectations, having seen what complete winners look like.

 

[Satans Hockey]

Edit: good catch with Kane/Toews, had a feeling thered be one or two I missed lol. If only my memory was as good as Id like

While I respect your laying out of those teams and what they did, they didnt win the Cup; not downplaying your thoughts, just making sure the original premise is remembered

Most of those teams you named also didnt come out of one of the longest cycles of success in the last 50 years of NHL hockey. The Devils from 88-12 only missed the playoffs three times, going to five Stanley Cup Finals and winning three (woohoo!)

Not only does coming out of such a long window hurt, but it was during the salary cap (and a very slow moving cap at that). The team was devoid of talent coming up minus Damon Severson, was the oldest roster in hockey (2014), and had a GM in Lou who moved everything to compete in 2012

Fast forward to Nico's draft, where I believe the argument can be made to start the deadline. Personally Id argue it starts with Jack, but I digress. Since then weve only made the playoffs twice, perhaps a third time this year. But that was also the true start of the rebuild

2013-2016 were filler years; a time-skip of sorts (for any One Piece fans out there lmfao)

Not to mention last season was a major fluke. Anybody who is objective (not insinuating you) can plainly see the injuries and goaltending cost us last year.

So, in actuality, the team is pacing quite well when you consider real-world factors and the average timeline of a team going from drafting high to making the playoffs reliably to contending

Just to show my math on this btw, Ive been saying (mostly to my friends, only once or twice on this website) I believe we are true contenders around the time Nico is up for a new contract. Thats when we will have the young defense ready to go, more depth and some prospects trying out up front, and a team thats been operating under Keefe for three seasons at that point

By 2027, I foresee the Devils contending at a high level for at least a half-decade. Things change of course, and it could begin sooner or we could never reach that point; but I believe the Devils are on track, whether thats with Fitzgerald in the future or not

I hope you're 100% right. I feel like I've been less complainy this year especially compared to most but scoring 1 goal against Blackwood is about as much as I can take. I just don't think Fitz is the person to led this team the promise land and the way he's acted with crying about firing Ruff and talking extremely poorly about Holtz in public(even if it was factual it was degrading an asset you own) and that he hides once the team starts looking bad has shown me that I don't think he has the knowledge or maturity to lead this team a cup win.

If he does I'll buy him the beer that I still owe Lindy.

I just don't blame people for being pissy about this team especially when there's kids out there who are getting their drivers license now who don't even remember this team getting to the finals in 2012 because it was that long ago.

Take your medicine with this process. You'll be less mad.

I'm not even mad, I'm happy the Red Bulls season has started cause this team has shown they don't have what it takes to win anything this year. Just like team USA, there are way too many passengers on this team.

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

I hope you're 100% right. I feel like I've been less complainy this year especially compared to most but scoring 1 goal against Blackwood is about as much as I can take. I just don't think Fitz is the person to led this team the promise land and the way he's acted with crying about firing Ruff and talking extremely poorly about Holtz in public(even if it was factual it was degrading an asset you own) and that he hides once the team starts looking bad has shown me that I don't think he has the knowledge or maturity to lead this team a cup win.

If he does I'll buy him the beer that I still owe Lindy.

I just don't blame people for being pissy about this team especially when there's kids out there who are getting their drivers license now who don't even remember this team getting to the finals in 2012 because it was that long ago.

I also dont know if Fitzgerald will finish out the ride with us or not; and that doesnt bother me. I am very confident, however, that Keefe will be the coach we reach a Final first with (would love to say win a Cup, but ill keep it in my pants lol)

The only major wrench in our plans I can foresee is if Jack doesn't re-sign; and that is so far ahead I could be a father by then... and im f***ing single as I type this lmfao

I dont blame anyone for how they feel, whether its objective, subjective, or downright emotional lol. We are Devils and NHL fanatiks after all. I just do my best to take everything in stride and keep a positive mentality about it; i dont make the big bucks to stress over it

 

[Better Call Sal]

 

[Devils731]

Dillon-Nemec is a defensive pairing that may be wandering in a forest, getting lost chasing after whatever shining thing catches their eye.