Rebuild/Restructure and What does that look like?

[Mortimer Snerd]

Who could've predicted that... Maybe the team that went with those goalies and didn't trade high price for a starter to suplant them. 3/4 of those teams you listed made the conference finals seems to me they were fine with their goaltending, and it outpeformed Helle

I'm aware of what his career PO stats are, they're middle of the pack when rating against other PO goalies during that time frame.... What does that have to do with how he performed this year.

Not sure if Vegas was that confident in their bundle of backup goalies, they used 5 this year, or just couldn't manage anything better.

Yes, exactly, 3 of them made the conference finals with goaltending that had been crappy all season. But I don't think they were fine with their goaltending until after they stepped up in the PO.

What does how he performed in this years PO have to do with his value at next TD?

 

[Teppo Numenor]

It’s not just attendance but how many season ticket holders there is versus how many people go to games here and there usually at deep discounts. We have got to the point where any advantage of being a ST holder has long past.

Full and half season ticket holders still see a lower ticket price. It’s definitely a cheaper way to go if you want to see the games.

 

[DRW204]

Yea I am more talking about me. Trust me, I can’t stand the way this group seems to quit in elimination games. I was taking a minor pause saying I guess we are not alone but by no means does it excuse it over so many exits. Have we ever really gone down swinging? I don’t think so.

The stl ending was bad

The effort against MTL (16 sogs in an elimination game + OT thanks to Logan Stanley) gets brought up.

Don't remember CGY play-in elimination tbh.

Vegas is definitely a tough task but with a team with the season on the line, perhaps the last season with a few of your high quality key personnel (ie hells, pld, Scheif) you'd think there would have been a much greater effort. Perhaps Vegas took the life out of them. Not sure. PLD certainly looked like he checked out.

 

[surixon]

Right. And that didn't change during the scoring slump.

I do wonder if Ehlers not being in the lineup first half vs being in the lineup during our slump didn't influence some perspective. Ehlers is the teams resident perimeter player who likes to do his own thing and tends to shoot more from the outside.

I'm guessing those traits weren't noticed by the fans as much the first half because our other top 6 players tend to try to get the puck to the slot to shoot.

The second half happens and we get more a constant perimeter player and our top 6 stops finishing so we maybe key in on that more.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I thought beating Vegas was possible with a healthy line up. Josh got hurt. Mark was hurt. Nik missed some games. Connor and Dubois checked out. Wheels and Barron tried

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It’s not just attendance but how many season ticket holders there is versus how many people go to games here and there usually at deep discounts. We have got to the point where any advantage of being a ST holder has long past.

That is another story. It is why I gave up my tickets. (Not the whole reason, but the last straw, if not the biggest reason) Terrible marketing by the Jets, IMO. Don't forget to also include being forced to pay for exhibition games in calculating the cost of ST.

It comes back to attendance but discounts have to be included when calculating avg ticket costs/revenue. But when they get back to sellouts they can stop the discounts and promote ST again. Have to fill the seats first though.

 

[KingBogo]

Full and half season ticket holders still see a lower ticket price. It’s definitely a cheaper way to go if you want to see the games.

No they don’t. I’m a season ticket holder and every game day I get an email from TNSE telling me I can get a ticket to the game at a price far below my ST price.

 

[Huffer]

If we accept Murat's premise that Scheifele may stick around and we get a deal like the Vilardi, Arviddson and a pick deal for Dubois then the following doesn't look to bad as a starting point upfront:

Perfetti Scheifele Arvidsson
-Mark and Cole played really well off each other last year and Arvidsson adds some speed and tenacity to the line. He also scored 59 points last year so can contribute offensively.

Conner Vilardi Ehlers
-Ehlers drives play, Vilardi adds defense ans secondary offense and Conner finishes

Nino Lowry xxxx
-Nino and Lowry performed quite well together and Nino was able to make the third line much more offensively dangerous.

Barron - Name* Appelton

If Chevy can retain Name and get another good middle 6 player I'd say our forwad core is much improved over last year.

Maybe that allows the team to target a top 4 dmen as the main piece in a Helle trade to upgrade the dcore.

You'd then have to find a good goalie somehow but the team could be better with improved depth and depth of talent at the forward and D positions.

That's why I don't mind taking back both Arvidsson and Iafallo in a hypothetical deal with LA to help with their cap (as long as we get the value in the Valardi and pick part). Iafallo could be a player on the 3rd with Lowry and Nino and not hurt us. Re-sign Name and have Gus in the PB. And then try to find better value UFA's this offseason looking for an opportunity, or maybe another piece comes from a Helle trade (or a D like you mentioned).

The only thing that isn't great about the above is our top 6 is a pretty soft and not defensively strong group. Beggars can't be choosers so I'm not saying there's a magical fix (besides getting possibly a decent physical top 6 type from a Helle trade, or spreading out the top 9 to balance).

 

[DRW204]

Not sure if Vegas was that confident in their bundle of backup goalies, they used 5 this year, or just couldn't manage anything better.

Yes, exactly, 3 of them made the conference finals with goaltending that had been crappy all season. But I don't think they were fine with their goaltending until after they stepped up in the PO.

What does how he performed in this years PO have to do with his value at next TD?

You said those 3 teams needed upgrades in net. They all went far with their goalies and they all performed better than Helle this year in the PO's when it mattered most.

Yes goalies are unpredictable, all the more reason why trading high price for one at the tdl, with minimal reps with the new team may be a risk. Then consider buyers or cup teams likely already have a good enough starter in net. Lastly the Jets with Helle may not be a seller.

Not sure what you're arguing. You brought up those teams this year. They all went further than us with Helle this PO season. Vegas somehow needed a better goalie in your mind despite winning the cup and a V good sv%. I'm moving on from this.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Are they too afraid or is it not really feasible to go scorched earth with this roster as constructed.

Even after we jettison Scheifele, Helle, and Dubois this summer the roster is still going to have the following pieces:

Norris caliber dmen for another half a decade at a bargain basement cap
40 goal scoring winger
Play driving 1st line winger
Up and coming two way center/winger in Perfetti
Big physical suppression top 4 dmen

Good prospect pool plus whatever now and futures pieces we get this summer

The team is still going to have to be cap Compliant so they can't jettison all their good players.

We are definitely rebuilding but it's likely a 14-18 style rebuild and not a scorched earth one

Moving our core 3(4) is already pretty close to a scorched earth rebuild. If you mean a tank that is a little different story, but even that is possible. 1) Include those assets you list in the scorched earth. (not recommending that, but it is certainly possible) 2) More realistic - How many games could we lose with Rittich as our #1 and Salminen as #2? Goaltending alone could get us pretty good lottery odds. How many goals will your 40 G man get with Namestnikov at 1C? How much play will your play driving winger drive with Lowry at 2C? We have 1 big, physical dman and we probably trade him. Samberg is big but he is not that physical. The jury is still out on Perfetti, I think. Will he be able to succeed at C? Will he be able to stay healthy enough?

Cap minimum is never an issue. If necessary there are always bad contracts to get paid for taking on.

I agree the probability is more of a retool than a rebuild, but in 14-18 we were not confronted with the need to move our 3 (probably) most valuable players. I think it will be more out of fear of a rebuild than out of necessity.

Does everybody think that "tanking to try to get a top 5 pick for multiple years" is the only way to turn a franchise around?

I feel like we're gonna see more "now" pieces back than picks this summer... but I mean young guys just entering their "now"

Hope you are right - as long as it is the right young guys.

I don't think it is a must to tank but 1 or 2 years with good lottery odds could help a lot, depending on the strength of the draft class.

 

[surixon]

That's why I don't mind taking back both Arvidsson and Iafallo in a hypothetical deal with LA to help with their cap (as long as we get the value in the Valardi and pick part). Iafallo could be a player on the 3rd with Lowry and Nino and not hurt us. Re-sign Name and have Gus in the PB. And then try to find better value UFA's this offseason looking for an opportunity, or maybe another piece comes from a Helle trade (or a D like you mentioned).

The only thing that isn't great about the above is our top 6 is a pretty soft and not defensively strong group. Beggars can't be choosers so I'm not saying there's a magical fix (besides getting possibly a decent physical top 6 type from a Helle trade, or spreading out the top 9 to balance).

Well Vilardi and Perfetti are good defensively as is Arvidsson. If you want more size can always flip Nino and Arvidsson. That would balance that aspect out more. In this scenario we'd have replaced one of our worst defensive forwards in Wheeeler with a much better one in Arviddsson/Nino and Vilardi is better than Dubois in his end so I actually think the defensive ability has improved. We likely aren't as explosive offensively though. I think Mark away from Conner and Wheeler will be good enough in his end. Conner hopefully can be mitigated by Vilardi. It's likely more of a scoring by committee approach.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree, but there is a bit of bias there. Other teams have had players force themselves there too (or at least toronto in Tavares instance and nyr with panarin and trouba and im sure there are others) and not make it.

The other elephant in the room is what is TNSE
trying to build? A cup contender? A perennial playoff team capable of catching lightening and making a run?

If it's the former, than bottoming out may be the way to go but the risk it carries is ending up as a bottom feeder for a decade if things don't go your way

If it's the latter, the risk is being in the mushy middle like we are.

People shat on Chevy for saying "hey at least we made the playoffs" but to be honest, if an organization has it set out that making thr playoffs every year is the worst case scenario, is that all that terrible? It actually sets a relatively high standard.

I'd say that the chances of winning a cup are about one in every 32 years but with how things are set up, some teams are likely to win it multiple times during that time and some not at all. I understand that winning a cup is the goal, and anything less is a failure but I don't think organizations can afford to look at it that way.

If the org has set making the PO every year as the worst case that is a good thing - unless that thinking dooms them to probably never doing any better than just barely making the PO.

There are degrees of failure. Not winning the Cup in any given year is a degree of failure. Never winning it in 32 years is another degree of failure. Not progressing towards winning it someday is another. Sometimes progressing requires a step back first.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That's the reality of it all - we either trade to get worse or draft and wait to get better.
Personally, I'd rather see us rebuild with draft picks - start over.
I don't think our key wingers are going to hang around anyway and without Helle to save us and without our top 6 centers, we already lost a huge pce of what barely got us into the PO's last season. And our blueline is going to get exposed for what it is - JoMo and not much else.

That might sound pessimistic but in reality, I would look forward to a new team with character and drive - a breath of fresh air while we wait for draft and development to kick in -
Because IMO, the draft / develop model is what we are and likely will always be. True North must realize that - hopefully the urge to remain somewhat relevant in the short term, will slip away before we start moving players.

Sounds like Jets have accepted moving on from PLD but want to keep everyone else.

The buyout period opens in a couple of more days. The draft in in less than 2 weeks. Jets are going to try to extend Scheifele and Hellebuyck. It will drag on till well past those deadlines. Hellebuyck sounds like he will push for a trade rather than extending so they will trade him, but too late to get the max return.

Despite losing both PLD and Helle they will go all in to extend Scheifele. If they are successful it means losing out on the return on him + committing too much cap for him + giving him too much term. A boat anchor contract. Plus any negatives associated with having him on the team, for those of us who think he is an overrated cancer. If Scheifele is retained, surely they will also want to keep Wheeler for another season.

If unsuccessful in extending Scheifele it will probably be too late to make a good trade. Maybe both he and Wheeler go at the TD in '24.

It may be fun to speculate about all of the wonderful trades Chevy could make with the ammunition he has, but it is probably just setting ourselves up for disappointment.

At this juncture, I don't see any credible path to improving the team that doesn't involve getting worse in the near term. TNSE might as well embrace it. I think renewal might sell better with fans than they expect.

To be clear, I am not suggesting going scorched earth. Just trade expiring assets and guys that don't want to be there for younger players and picks. Try to ice the best team you can while acknowledging we may need to take a step back while getting younger. This is a rebuild in my mind, but maybe the word means something else to others.

The words rebuild & retool, etc mean different things to different people and even change a bit from day to day with the same people.

I think you might have hit on a word that Chevy and Chipman might like to use instead of rebuild. They can sell renewal.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Having Dillon on the team this year effectively loses us Chisholm for free, since there won't be a roster spot for him (barring a lot of injuries). You're right about his deadline value, but I'm not OK with losing Chis without ever giving him a chance at the NHL level.

As for Scheifele, both options should be OK, but I tend to prefer keeping him around for the year. We have nothing in the way of offensive-minded centers for next year without him and PLD.

I want to see what we have in Chisholm.
I will be OK with keeping Scheifele until the TD. I will not be happy to see him extended.

Edit: I won't be happy to see Scheifele extended on the assumption that it will be too much, too long. If, by some miracle, he signed a contract I could like it would be a different story. I just see near zero chance of that happening.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I think you might have hit on a word that Chevy and Chipman might like to use instead of rebuild. They can sell renewal.

Renewal. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Renew!

Logan's Run (1976) clip with quote Renew! Yarn is the best search for video clips by quote. Find the exact moment in a TV show, movie, or music video you want to share. Easily move forward or backward to get to the perfect clip.

getyarn.io

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

JMO, but people need to stop comparing how Vegas does things to how Winnipeg does things. Sure, maybe there are some things the Jets could do better, but here's one thing Vegas has that Winnipeg never will....

There are 500+ players in the NHL that WANT to play for Vegas, and there are 500+ players in the NHL that DON'T WANT to play for Winnipeg. That's not something TNSE or Chevy can wave a magic wand and change. So until those numbers reach some equilibrium it is what it isn't.

But, what the Jets should be able to do better is build a better bottom 6. These guys don't get paid a fortune, and for the most part they aren't good enough to dictate where they can play, so this is something we should be able to do better.

True.

There are also 500+ players in the NHL who can't dictate where they play. No magic wand needed. Concentrate on those players and the draft.

Build a better bottom 6 and draft the top 6.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

All those Manitoba guys on Vegas also had history with mccrimmon and the wheat Kings. TNSE might have had similar fate if they got a whl team instead of ahl back in the day. You can't compete with familiarity and history

 

[LowLefty]

Right. And that didn't change during the scoring slump.

That might be so but the strategy changed -
We were not getting a ton of traffic to the net and what was headed in that direction, was getting boxed out (easily) - there wasn't as much fight in their game when it came to chances from good shooting positions.

I noticed the shooting attempts in the second half, were the only option in many situations - and when there are less offensive options, stopping the puck becomes easier. Those are things that are happening on the ice - and may color the stats a bit.

But I get the stats - not trying to derail that part of the discussion, but there were other factors that shifted our game style over the season - regardless of the what the shot clock or high danger stats tell us. We were not hard to defend and we didn't generate a much chaos around the slot or net front.
Despite the shooter getting to the middle ice, in many cases, they were not getting a lot of support around the net - shots are rushed and defenders are not tied up with traffic. These things were happening - and they should be part of the discussion and not necessarily dismissed due to what the spread sheets are telling us.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't think that our 3rd line has been the problem though. Sure it's maybe not the greatest right now but we arguably had one of the best 3rd line shutdown lines in the league when the TLC line was rocking. Chevy has generally tried to mold this team around the Hawks cup winners who generally had a shutdown line as their 3rd.

So the 3rd line has been the problem - since losing Tanev & Copp.

 

[Guardian17]

Renewal. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Renew!

Logan's Run (1976) clip with quote Renew! Yarn is the best search for video clips by quote. Find the exact moment in a TV show, movie, or music video you want to share. Easily move forward or backward to get to the perfect clip.

getyarn.io

Love the Logan's Run gif!!

 

[Daximus]

So the 3rd line has been the problem - since losing Tanev & Copp.

Well unless you expect the 3rd line to outscore the opposition all by themselves its been part of the problem but not all of the problem.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the problems were with all of the forward lines and defensive pairs really. Helle had us in more games than we likely should have been, Perhaps with him gone now the brass will see that he was actually masking a lot of our deficiencies.

While there is truth in that POV, isn't that what elite goalies are supposed to do for their teams? Make them better?

In a way, it is like the Oilers having been unable to build a winner around an elite 1C in McD. We failed to build a team good enough for that elite goalie to lead us to the promised land.

 

[Whileee]

That might be so but the strategy changed -
We were not getting a ton of traffic to the net and what was headed in that direction, was getting boxed out (easily) - there wasn't as much fight in their game when it came to chances from good shooting positions.

I noticed the shooting attempts in the second half, were the only option in many situations - and when there are less offensive options, stopping the puck becomes easier. Those are things that are happening on the ice - and may color the stats a bit.

But I get the stats - not trying to derail that part of the discussion, but there were other factors that shifted our game style over the season - regardless of the what the shot clock or high danger stats tell us. We were not hard to defend and we didn't generate a much chaos around the slot or net front.
Despite the shooter getting to the middle ice, in many cases, they were not getting a lot of support around the net - shots are rushed and defenders are not tied up with traffic. These things were happening - and they should be part of the discussion and not necessarily dismissed due to what the spread sheets are telling us.

I don't want to prolong this, but if you look at the shooting percentages for Dubois, Ehlers and Connor they are rock-bottom; like way below James Wright level. Maybe some was style, but they were just remarkably low and I'm sure you recall many times when the Jets hit posts or missed great opportunities or were stoned by goalies (remember the epic James Reimer game?)

 

[LowLefty]

I don't want to prolong this, but if you look at the shooting percentages for Dubois, Ehlers and Connor they are rock-bottom; like way below James Wright level. Maybe some was style, but they were just remarkably low and I'm sure you recall many times when the Jets hit posts or missed great opportunities or were stoned by goalies (remember the epic James Reimer game?)

Not debating the shooting percentages - I'd agree that is a big part of it.
I'm only adding other insights based on the teams play at the low point in the second half.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Why wouldn’t they keep Blake around? It is a waste of assets to try and trade him in the off season as you would need to add sweeteners to move his contract and he has extremely restrictive NTC. TNSE don’t really do buyouts so I fully expect him to be around. If he has another good season he is likely open to a TDL trade to a contender of his liking for a chance at a cup. I’ll add as shown at the exit interview’s Blake is much more popular with teammates than fans. As long as the organization moves the pending free agents that have value and are pushing hard to get out I think things settle down next season.

I think Blake would be tradeable with 50% retention. But he probably brings a better return at the TD when Jets can still retain. Both are better strategies than a buyout at this point. As long as he doesn't fall off a cliff next season, he will still have reasonable value at the TD.

Well unless you expect the 3rd line to outscore the opposition all by themselves its been part of the problem but not all of the problem.

I'll buy that. Actually, for most of this year they were pretty good. Lowry had his best season scoring.