Rebuild/Restructure and What does that look like?

[Daximus]

In your mind, what would be sufficient to be called a "rebuild"?

Trading away older players on expiring contracts for picks and prospects, acquiring cap dumps for picks, just generally acquiring as many picks as you can and bottoming out for at least 2-3 seasons to draft high.

 

[ps241]

I definitely did not love the lack of ownership in their play to finish the year. And Bowness was quite defiant or vocal on this team throughout 2023.

Im just saying if all these players are disciples of wheeler and management seems to be generally fine with how he's been over the years (if he was a real problem I think they would've done something sooner) , how much do you really think it improves. Isn't there a chance the new gen leaders are basically the same since they virtually had no issue with him

The one thing I am thinking about is all of Winnipeg, Dallas, and Florida looked like shit in the game they got closed out in these playoffs vs Vegas. At least Florida got two goals in the 3rd but still.

If it wasn't for the history of the Jets collapsing in the last game of the playoffs in previous seasons I might be inclined to give them more of a pass.

Either way onward now anyways.

 

[Whileee]

Trading away older players on expiring contracts for picks and prospects, acquiring cap dumps for picks, just generally acquiring as many picks as you can and bottoming out for at least 2-3 seasons to draft high.

I'm okay with the first part, but I think that can be done without bottoming out (if you mean becoming really terrible).

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I don't want to be Buffalo. You can't trade everyone, scorched earth rebuild = no playoffs for years and years and years. Buffalo not make it for 16 years now apparently. Scorched earth = death of Winnipeg Jets. Plus u don't need to, got solid vets like Lowry Morrissey ehlers Connor still... got a good young group with Samberg maybe ville and chis lambert chib lucius solo Rutger.

Team don't need to go scorched earth

Plus u look at the central and you got Colorado Dallas Minnesota and then a bunch of rebuilding teams in Nash Arizona st Louis and Chicago. I'd put Jets prob 4th right now

 

[WaveRaven]

I thought Dubois and Connor were really atrocious defensively in Game 5, but I think the whole narrative that the Jets hit the skids in terms of effort in Jan/Feb is bogus. At least, if you look at any metrics that are generally used to measure how well a team controls play and scoring chances. The Jets went cold - shooting and saving. It's as simple as that. Down the stretch they were 7th in the NHL in xGF% (5v5). That was much better than they were in the first half.

This graph shows what actually happened with the Jets' season, forgetting all of the noise and subjective feelings that arise when a team is losing more than expected. Bowness was basking in a great record in the first half of the season, which was driven largely by high shooting %, goaltending, and PK. In the second half, Connor, Dubois and Ehlers stopped scoring, despite getting lots of chances. Rittich went into the tank, and Hellebuyck became ordinary.

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Numbers don't tell the whole story. A big part of the reason they went cold is because as the season goes on the other teams start to play a more structured game. As the old says goes the real hockey starts after the all star game.

So what is successful early on isn't necessarily as effective as you go on, especially when your best players are a soft perimeter players. We've seen this for a few seasons now. Fancy schmancy isn't as effective when playing a solid well structured team.

So while the first half they really bought into the defensive part of Bones' system it fell off as the games clicked by. Couple that with perimeter offence it's not a winning strategy IMHO. I believe Bones wanted them to go to the net more and feed the point but as Scheif said that's not his game plays a possession game. So they never fully bought in there.

Thats why we seen a second half collapse I think.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I don't want to be Buffalo. You can't trade everyone, scorched earth rebuild = no playoffs for years and years and years. Buffalo not make it for 16 years now apparently. Scorched earth = death of Winnipeg Jets

I wouldn't rule out scorched Earth as a viable direction based on the ineptness of a small number of organizations that have tried it. Unless you believe that True North would be just as inept.

 

[Eyeseeing]

It's anecdotal for sure but we see the posts on here and the watch parties selling out etc etc and think it's mostly dialed in fans but it's really not. I would think TNSE has a better grasp on their market than HFBoards.

Perhaps… but with attendance starting to dip and the STH dropping, do they really?
Serious question.

just making up stuff to justify your own irrational hate.

What are they making up?
Wheeler called out his coach and other players sided with Wheeler.
Hardly a healthy dynamic.
Problem with truth or reality is that some folks don’t process it well.
That’s why everything gets whitewashed now.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Make the tickets more affordable. Groceries, gas, inflation at a ridiculous rate, homes that cost 150k 15 years ago costing 350 plus now.... everything is going up in price, the only thing that isn't really,is the amount we all get paid. I don't get how the avg household affords the house car groceries and bills... it boggles my mind, ppl must be in debt so much. Hockey is a sport that unfortunately is becoming a sport only for rich kids and rich families.

 

[tbcwpg]

Perhaps… but with attendance starting to dip and the STH dropping, do they really?
Serious question.

Probably. There's been COVID realities to deal with and people couldn't afford their season tickets anymore. Tickets were easier to come by so more people drop their tickets. The team performance has steadily declined as well. It would be pretty easy to draw the conclusion that STHs have dropped as team performance has dropped, so the move is to get better to bring the STH numbers back up.

Big businesses survey their audience all the time. I've been saying for awhile that fans might support a rebuild in theory but that doesn't mean they're going to buy tickets. If TNSE feels like they need the revenue short term and not long term then their strategy is going to be to try to maximize that.

 

[Al Camino]

Chipman is a Winnipegger. If he's paying Wheeler $8.25M, Wheeler is damn well going to play.

This comment wins the board. You have summed it perfectly.

 

[drumzan]

I dunno, they bought out Stu and I think he always wearing an A at the time

For all the know, a buyout could be something wheeler's camp wants. He has a very limited trade list (though he could always waive) and his salary is prohibitive

If he wants out and the Jets don't want to retain, he may be stuck here. If he's bought out, he can sign anywhere for a diminished salary

If I'm chevy, I'm asking Blake if he wants to chase a cup in the twilight of his career. Then I ask him if he'd rather play here until the deadline or go the buyout route.

They bought out Stu because it was clear he was no longer NHL caliber. Wheeler is still a good NHL player.

 

[RabidOne]

we didn't have a chance to claim tolvanen and we probably put a claim in on him since we ended up with kuhlman the next day

Seattle was below us in the standings at the time?

 

[Daximus]

I'm okay with the first part, but I think that can be done without bottoming out (if you mean becoming really terrible).

Generally the high end talent is found at the top of the draft. You won't find many guys like Toews, Kane, Doughty, Stamkos, Hedman, Crosby or Malkin outside of it. Not enough to bank on it anyways.

 

[tbcwpg]

Seattle was below us in the standings at the time?

As of December 11, 2022, the date Tolvanen was placed on waivers, Winnipeg was tied for 1st in the Central with 37 points, and Seattle was on 33 points.

 

[Whileee]

Numbers don't tell the whole story. A big part of the reason they went cold is because as the season goes on the other teams start to play a more structured game. As the old says goes the real hockey starts after the all star game.

So what is successful early on isn't necessarily as effective as you go on, especially when your best players are a soft perimeter players. We've seen this for a few seasons now. Fancy schmancy isn't as effective when playing a solid well structured team.

So while the first half they really bought into the defensive part of Bones' system it fell off as the games clicked by. Couple that with perimeter offence it's not a winning strategy IMHO. I believe Bones wanted them to go to the net more and feed the point but as Scheif said that's not his game plays a possession game. So they never fully bought in there.

Thats why we seen a second half collapse I think.

Well, then why did the Jets' expected goals rate improve in the second half? That implies that the Jets were getting more, higher danger shots late in the season, and they absolutely shut off the expected goals against.

Now, if the Jets were getting fewer changes and expected goals as the season went on, then that's one thing. But that's not what happened. What happened was that they were getting more chances, but weren't converting on those chances.

Here are the Jets expected goals per 60 minutes, 5v5, adjusted for score and venue:

Season start to January 14: 2.65 (18th in the NHL)
January 15 to season end: 2.98 (8th in the NHL)

Another way of looking at it is "high danger shot attempts".

Jets were 9th in the NHL from January 15th until season end.
Jets were 12th earlier in the season.

So, what caused the second half "collapse"?

Well, let's start in goal. Despite being one of the best at limiting expected goals against, from January 15th until season end the Jets ranked 14th in save% at 5v5. Earlier in the season the Jets ranked 5th in the NHL in 5v5 save%.

Shooting % (overall):
Before January 15: 11.26 (4th in the NHL)
After January 15: 8.51 (32nd in the NHL)

So, to summarize:

1. In the second half of the season the Jets were generating more shots and expected goals than earlier in the season, and giving up way fewer expected goals against.
2. In the first half, the Jets had one of the top shooting and save % in the NHL, but dropped to last in shooting % and 14th in save % in the second half.

My take is that coaches, players and fans got frustrated by a prolonged losing slump, driven by a shooting and goaltending slump.

 

[Buffdog]

They bought out Stu because it was clear he was no longer NHL caliber. Wheeler is still a good NHL player.

When always stu ever NHL calibre?

 

[Yukon Joe]

Generally the high end talent is found at the top of the draft. You won't find many guys like Toews, Kane, Doughty, Stamkos, Hedman, Crosby or Malkin outside of it. Not enough to bank on it anyways.

Vegas is the counter-example to that though isn't it?

They only have 3 players on their roster drafted in the top 5: Eichel, PIetrangelo, and Kessel - but none of them were drafted by Vegas (and none of them came from the expansion draft).

You can acquire top end talent other ways - but it involves taking a risk on a player with medical issues (Eichel), overpaying in free agency (Pietrangelo) or picking up an aging but useful player (Kessel).

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree.
If you're a PO or cup bound team you have goaltending likely covered.

Maybe a fringe team moves a 1st+ for Helle at the tdl to give them a push.

I also think goalies may need a lot of reps with their new team so perhaps bringing a new guy in at the tdl and having exceptional results isn't guaranteed.

Helle should be moved in the offseason. I think Scheifele is higher likelihood of being kept, and possibly moved at the tdl

I agree that it is better to move Helle in the off-season rather than the TD.

But your assumption that PO teams will have goaltending covered isn't necessarily so.
Fla went into the PO with a starter having a 90.1 sv%. Made the SCF.
Carolina's #1 guy was at 90.3.
Vegas got decent goaltending from Adin Hill, Logan Thompson and Brossoit but who would have predicted that? Hill got even better in the PO and they won the Cup.
Edm got 91.4% out of Skinner but they were relying on Campbell who only managed 88.8%. Skinner flopped in the PO and Oil got bounced.
LAK relied on a tandem that managed 90.3% and 87.6%.

 

[drumzan]

When always stu ever NHL calibre?

1000% agree. I was so mad when the Jets announced Mark Stuart’s contract extension.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

They are always the largest piece of the pie. We are all hardcore fans on this forum just by nature but there are thousands more fans out there that couldn't name you more than 2 or 3 Jets prospects, barely know who the management team are and don't watch every game if they can. For ever Mortimer there are 10 more people who just go about their day not even thinking about the Jets.

Sure - but how many of those people go to games?

Just going by people I see/hear/meet at games it is not as much as you might think.

Then there is the next tier, fans who know Perfetti is being counted on as a big part of the future. They may have heard about Lambert too but have no idea who Declan Chisholm is. These are people who can buy into an exciting future. In fact, they may be an easier sell than many of us 'hardcore fans' here.

I'm not saying attendance would not drop during a rebuild. I think there is no doubt of that. It is a question of how far it will drop and how long it will take to recover.

 

[DRW204]

So 4 out of what 18ish teams who are vying for the PO's at the tdl. Then consider some PO teams don't buy, or buy with heavy trade capital. and half of your list flaky as hell (Vegas for instance
clearly showed they did not need an upgrade in net).

I said LIKELY got it covered not which doesn't mean every single team, and mentioned possible a fringe team may move a 1st+(or high capital) for one. And Helle's PO numbers were abysmal.

I agree that it is better to move Helle in the off-season rather than the TD.

But your assumption that PO teams will have goaltending covered isn't necessarily so.
Fla went into the PO with a starter having a 90.1 sv%. Made the SCF.
Carolina's #1 guy was at 90.3.
Vegas got decent goaltending from Adin Hill, Logan Thompson and Brossoit but who would have predicted that? Hill got even better in the PO and they won the Cup.
Edm got 91.4% out of Skinner but they were relying on Campbell who only managed 88.8%. Skinner flopped in the PO and Oil got bounced.
LAK relied on a tandem that managed 90.3% and 87.6%.

 

[surixon]

If we accept Murat's premise that Scheifele may stick around and we get a deal like the Vilardi, Arviddson and a pick deal for Dubois then the following doesn't look to bad as a starting point upfront:

Perfetti Scheifele Arvidsson
-Mark and Cole played really well off each other last year and Arvidsson adds some speed and tenacity to the line. He also scored 59 points last year so can contribute offensively.

Conner Vilardi Ehlers
-Ehlers drives play, Vilardi adds defense ans secondary offense and Conner finishes

Nino Lowry xxxx
-Nino and Lowry performed quite well together and Nino was able to make the third line much more offensively dangerous.

Barron - Name* Appelton

If Chevy can retain Name and get another good middle 6 player I'd say our forwad core is much improved over last year.

Maybe that allows the team to target a top 4 dmen as the main piece in a Helle trade to upgrade the dcore.

You'd then have to find a good goalie somehow but the team could be better with improved depth and depth of talent at the forward and D positions.

 

[Whileee]

Generally the high end talent is found at the top of the draft. You won't find many guys like Toews, Kane, Doughty, Stamkos, Hedman, Crosby or Malkin outside of it. Not enough to bank on it anyways.

True, but the odds of getting #1 and #2 overall picks like Toews and Kane (Chi), Stamkos and Hedman (TB) and Crosby and Malkin (PIT) are really, really low.

Maybe you get one top pick, but as we've seen with Laine (who would be 1st overall in many drafts), it doesn't necessarily guarantee success. Even McDavid and Draisaitl haven't made the Oilers a surefire champion. Buffalo ended up trading their star pick before they were good enough to even make the playoffs.

I can see the potential value of a bunch of top-5 picks, but that can be a laborious process and can really ruin the reputation of a market. Maybe Ottawa seems like a model, but they have gone through such a long, crappy run and still haven't made the playoffs. I'd still rank them as a bubble team in the East - certainly not a cup contender at this point. That's after 5 horrible seasons, and one season just over .500.

I wonder whether it might be better to look more like teams like the Stars, Wild, and a few others that draft enough in the top 60 to nab some real stars through good scouting and improved pick volume.

In retrospect, trading the 1sts to rent Stastny and Hayes might have been poor decisions for a franchise like the Jets.

 

[Daximus]

Vegas is the counter-example to that though isn't it?

They only have 3 players on their roster drafted in the top 5: Eichel, PIetrangelo, and Kessel - but none of them were drafted by Vegas (and none of them came from the expansion draft).

You can acquire top end talent other ways - but it involves taking a risk on a player with medical issues (Eichel), overpaying in free agency (Pietrangelo) or picking up an aging but useful player (Kessel).

I think that's an unrealistic target for a small market Canadian team. We even tried to get Stone but he just didn't want to be here and he's literally from Winnipeg. It's pretty unlikely we ever get a Peitrangelo level player out of FA even if we overpay, unless we are the only suitors.

 

[DRW204]

The one thing I am thinking about is all of Winnipeg, Dallas, and Florida looked like shit in the game they got closed out in these playoffs vs Vegas. At least Florida got two goals in the 3rd but still.

If it wasn't for the history of the Jets collapsing in the last game of the playoffs in previous seasons I might be inclined to give them more of a pass.

Either way onward now anyways.

I don't really care, or find solace in how other teams perform compared to the ones I root for. Like just bc the other teams lost to Vegas strikes me as just more fishing of excuses.

If the Jets had the mentality of absolving the team /roster just bc other teams lost to Vegas then folks shouldn't throw a fit if they brought most of the personnel back.