Rebuild/Restructure and What does that look like?

[Gil Fisher]

any idea what the Dreger clip was about?

 

[cbcwpg]

 

[ERYX]

I always thought that the chances of a Wheeler buy-out were about zero, so that part of this tweet is no shock or disappointment to me. Just too much going against a buyout: Wheeler has been the face of the team, a guy with the team since the beginning, and even though overpaid still produces points.

What I'm wondering about is what did Dreger say that was so discouraging?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Generally in every market the casual fans vastly outweight the hardcore fans. There are far more fairweather fans than there are fans who are there through thick and thin. This is why bigger markets can handle dips in team performance better and always will be able to.

Of course the Jets fanbase includes casual fans. But I think you are overestimating how big a piece of the total they are.

 

[Buffdog]

I always thought that the chances of a Wheeler buy-out were about zero, so that part of this tweet is no shock or disappointment to me. Just too much going against a buyout: Wheeler has been the face of the team, a guy with the team since the beginning, and even though overpaid still produces points.

What I'm wondering about is what did Dreger say that was so discouraging?

I dunno, they bought out Stu and I think he always wearing an A at the time

For all the know, a buyout could be something wheeler's camp wants. He has a very limited trade list (though he could always waive) and his salary is prohibitive

If he wants out and the Jets don't want to retain, he may be stuck here. If he's bought out, he can sign anywhere for a diminished salary

If I'm chevy, I'm asking Blake if he wants to chase a cup in the twilight of his career. Then I ask him if he'd rather play here until the deadline or go the buyout route.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So far we have multiple people reporting on it within both TSN and Sportsnet. From Dregs, to Button to Friedman. All we can do is work with what we have when we speculate and it seems the Jets are far more interested in roster players than futures for these deals.

I think it's important to be able to have FA signings in your back pocket to augment a rebuild. They don't even have to be big and splashy players but you need to be able to be competative there. As well as being able to freely trade for players. Another thing the Jets have working against them given the fact that so many NTC's have Winnipeg on them. You can only rely on building through the draft so much. There is a luck factor there that won't always come through.

I suspect Button and Friedman are just repeating what they heard from Dregs. But like I said before, I don't doubt that Jets have indicated that. I'm not sure I believe what Jets say.

I certainly hope they don't insist on established players. Young players with upside are OK, but the established ones will not be as good as what we give up. Rather than becoming better or at least holding our own, we will be even weaker. And we won't even have the added futures to look forward too.

I agree that FAs have to play a part. It is the high end ones that we really have trouble getting. We aren't first choice with the middle and lower end ones either, but we can get enough there.

Player performance usually peaks before age 27, when trade protections kick in. So I am not too concerned with being on no trade lists. Salaries peak a little later. Our problem recently is retaining players. We used to do well there until the malaise appeared.

This forced rebuild/retool, whatever you want to call it, is a golden opportunity. I sure hope Jets don't blow it.

 

[WaveRaven]

WTF are they nuts ? That season ending press conference should have been the last straw. What a dysfunctional franchise.

Its becoming quite clear that the players have far greater influence on this team than the coach. Small wonder they don't follow the coaches game plan.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I have a feeling that CBJ is pretty inclined to ride Elvis into this season to see what he can do when the team in front of him has a better defence.

They may do that, but I think only if they come up empty trying to get better than him. I'm sure they know they run the risk of wasting the best years left in the talent they have been acquiring.

Elvis had a couple of very good years and has followed with a couple of bad to very bad ones. Goaltending is voodoo so he could rebound strongly. He could just as easily continue his downward trend.

I can't believe they would not be excited to get Helle. I think Jarmo would be pissing his pants at the thought. That doesn't mean he would be willing to do the kind of trade I would like to see but he appears to be willing to spend the future for the now. He does not seem to be in a wait and see mode.

 

[DRW204]

Think they'll go into the year with Wheeler and move him at the tdl if they are out of it. You can say or beleive what you want of him as a leader, personality etc but it seems like the supposed younger leaders such as Lowry and Morrissey follow or abide by him and are with his program. I don't think the Jets are hurting for cap space so they're not desperate to move him for nothing, or pay to get rid of him.

 

[cbcwpg]

Will the Jets participate? We will see ... but I am interested to see what all the teams do.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

you think pld + stanley for swaymen is a good deal?

Yes, though it might take something other than Stanley as the add.

Many here are cautioning us to not expect too much for Helle because goalies usually don't bring big returns in trade. By that standard, PLD alone is a good return.

There will be competition for Swayman, just as there will be for Helle. So I add to PLD. But I don't think it should take a big add. If it does then we need to raise our expectations for a return on Helle.

 

[WaveRaven]

Think they'll go into the year with Wheeler and move him at the tdl if they are out of it. You can say or beleive what you want of him as a leader, personality etc but it seems like the supposed younger leaders such as Lowry and Morrissey follow or abide by him and are with his program. I don't think the Jets are hurting for cap space so they're not desperate to move him for nothing, or pay to get rid of him.

This is exactly why you move him. Can you imagine at a private company going public directly defying your superior. How long would it take to be fired ?

 

[Daximus]

Of course the Jets fanbase includes casual fans. But I think you are overestimating how big a piece of the total they are.

They are always the largest piece of the pie. We are all hardcore fans on this forum just by nature but there are thousands more fans out there that couldn't name you more than 2 or 3 Jets prospects, barely know who the management team are and don't watch every game if they can. For ever Mortimer there are 10 more people who just go about their day not even thinking about the Jets.

 

[gojetsgo]

Yes, though it might take something other than Stanley as the add.

Many here are cautioning us to not expect too much for Helle because goalies usually don't bring big returns in trade. By that standard, PLD alone is a good return.

There will be competition for Swayman, just as there will be for Helle. So I add to PLD. But I don't think it should take a big add. If it does then we need to raise our expectations for a return on Helle.

I mean anderson went for the 30 + 50th and had way more of a track record and wasn't the back up of a historic bruins team, would you trade pld for a very late 1st and mid to late 2nd let alone add to pld to get that? I also don't get the logic behind people cautioning on the helle return means that pld for swayman would be a good deal

anyways I don't even see the bruins being able to go after pld with their cap space, they most likely try and re-sign bergeron + kjreci, trade one of swaymen/ulmark and use the assets acquired to move their bad contracts off the books to free up more cap space that they desperately need

 

[DRW204]

Perhaps they do not defy him bc they're fine with him?

This is exactly why you move him. Can you imagine at a private company going public directly defying your superior. How long would it take to be fired ?

 

[surixon]

They are always the largest piece of the pie. We are all hardcore fans on this forum just by nature but there are thousands more fans out there that couldn't name you more than 2 or 3 Jets prospects, barely know who the management team are and don't watch every game if they can. For ever Mortimer there are 10 more people who just go about their day not even thinking about the Jets.

They are absolutely the largest piece. At the CPA meeting yesterday Olfert provided actual data on that. Pretty much the vast majority of fan interaction is at the TV, streaming, blog and news level. Roughly 1/3 buy merchandise regularly and only 7% attend live events.

So yes the org needs to keep casual fan engaged to maintain TV viewership etc.

I provided a summary I the Chevy thread but the Jets have a pretty significant following in the province I.e 4 of 5 manitobans engaged in the Jets in some manner. We have a very high per capital TV following. Our viewership numbers very similar to the Alberta teams which was leveraged to get a comparable regional TV deal. So yes there is pressure to keep fans engaged and watching on TV.

 

[Daximus]

They are absolutely the largest piece. At the CPA meeting yesterday Olfert provided actual data on that. Pretty much the vast majority of fan interaction is at the TV, streaming, blog and news level. Roughly 1/3 buy merchandise regularly and only 7% attend live events.

So yes the org needs to keep casual fan engaged to maintain TV viewership etc.

I provided a summary I the Chevy thread but the Jets have a pretty significant following in the province I.e 4 of 5 manitobans engaged in the Jets in some manner. We have a very high per capital TV following. Our viewership numbers very similar to the Alberta teams which was leveraged to get a comparable regional TV deal. So yes there is pressure to keep fans engaged and watching on TV.

That's a big part of their overall plan then. They likely ask themselves will people watch if the product is subpar? Will there be viewers if the team is like the Ducks? Young, exciting and skilled but largely terrible and unlikely to win many games. And can this market support a team like that for 3 or 4 years? What if the rebuild goes sideways? Can this market support a team like that for the better part of a decade?

 

[tbcwpg]

They are always the largest piece of the pie. We are all hardcore fans on this forum just by nature but there are thousands more fans out there that couldn't name you more than 2 or 3 Jets prospects, barely know who the management team are and don't watch every game if they can. For ever Mortimer there are 10 more people who just go about their day not even thinking about the Jets.

I take my dad as an example. He's been an STH in the Bud Lounge since the Moose were the only game in town. He was over when I had the Memorial Cup on and he had no clue about Brad Lambert. He didn't care. Whenever I've talked Jets with him he doesn't know who any of the prospects are and says "talk to me when they're in the NHL". All his friends around him are similar. These are people paying the highest price category for over a decade.

It's anecdotal for sure but we see the posts on here and the watch parties selling out etc etc and think it's mostly dialed in fans but it's really not. I would think TNSE has a better grasp on their market than HFBoards.

 

[WaveRaven]

Perhaps they do not defy him bc they're fine with him?

So you're fine with the players like Wheeler undermining their coach and influencing the younger members of the team ? The inmates are running the asylum. He should be bought out today.

 

[Daximus]

I take my dad as an example. He's been an STH in the Bud Lounge since the Moose were the only game in town. He was over when I had the Memorial Cup on and he had no clue about Brad Lambert. He didn't care. Whenever I've talked Jets with him he doesn't know who any of the prospects are and says "talk to me when they're in the NHL". All his friends around him are similar. These are people paying the highest price category for over a decade.

It's anecdotal for sure but we see the posts on here and the watch parties selling out etc etc and think it's mostly dialed in fans but it's really not. I would think TNSE has a better grasp on their market than HFBoards.

Yeah and the thing about causal is they generally tend to think the team is gonna do something, even when it's clear to the hardcore fans that they won't. So when you alienate them with a bad product they generally just tune out. And when they tune out, you are in trouble because they represent the biggest share of revenue.

 

[ps241]

They are absolutely the largest piece. At the CPA meeting yesterday Olfert provided actual data on that. Pretty much the vast majority of fan interaction is at the TV, streaming, blog and news level. Roughly 1/3 buy merchandise regularly and only 7% attend live events.

So yes the org needs to keep casual fan engaged to maintain TV viewership etc.

I provided a summary I the Chevy thread but the Jets have a pretty significant following in the province I.e 4 of 5 manitobans engaged in the Jets in some manner. We have a very high per capital TV following. Our viewership numbers very similar to the Alberta teams which was leveraged to get a comparable regional TV deal. So yes there is pressure to keep fans engaged and watching on TV.

Its always interesting to get a broader perspective on the business side of the Jets. That is where I think you need to keep Hockey ops somewhat separate though.

 

[DRW204]

I definitely did not love the lack of ownership in their play to finish the year. And Bowness was quite defiant or vocal on this team throughout 2023.

Im just saying if all these players are disciples of wheeler and management seems to be generally fine with how he's been over the years (if he was a real problem I think they would've done something sooner) , how much do you really think it improves. Isn't there a chance the new gen leaders are basically the same since they virtually had no issue with him

So you're fine with the players like Wheeler undermining their coach and influencing the younger members of the team ? The inmates are running the asylum. He should be bought out today.

 

[tbcwpg]

Yeah and the thing about causal is they generally tend to think the team is gonna do something, even when it's clear to the hardcore fans that they won't. So when you alienate them with a bad product they generally just tune out. And when they tune out, you are in trouble because they represent the biggest share of revenue.

Even Mort, who's said the fans would support a rebuild, has said he probably won't go in the first couple of years when they're bad. I agree, casuals will wait out the team until they're good again. Fans supported it at the beginning because the team just got here. It's different now.

 

[surixon]

That's a big part of their overall plan then. They likely ask themselves will people watch if the product is subpar? Will there be viewers if the team is like the Ducks? Young, exciting and skilled but largely terrible and unlikely to win many games. And can this market support a team like that for 3 or 4 years? What if the rebuild goes sideways? Can this market support a team like that for the better part of a decade?

Yup he talked about accountability abs specifically mentioned that he's not just accountable to the fans but to his broadcast partners to get enough people watching, his sponsorship partners to get enough butts in the seats to see the adds.

I found it pretty eye opening and something I didn't really think about. There are pressures from other key stakeholders with 10's of millions invested that have likely driven many decisions.

 

[Daximus]

Even Mort, who's said the fans would support a rebuild, has said he probably won't go in the first couple of years when they're bad. I agree, casuals will wait out the team until they're good again. Fans supported it at the beginning because the team just got here. It's different now.

We tend to get a lot of truckers from Manitoba at my work as we ship a lot of stuff out to Brandon. So naturally I get into a lot of conversations about the Jets with them. It's usually really easy to find out if they are a hardcore fan or more of a casual just by probing them a little bit. For the most part we get a lot of casual fans. They are always optimistic about the trajectory of the team with the typical "This is our year" statements. I'll dig deep into some of the prospects like Lambert or McGroarty doing well in minor leagues and they typically respond with "oh I hadn't heard about him is he gonna make the team next year?". More often than not they generally have an idea of where the team is in the standings and tend to have an opinion on the locker room situation but they are still optimistic and generally think the team is going to have a good run.

Losing them would be the death of this franchise.