Speculation: Raymond Seider Contract Speculation

[norrisnick]

Goalies are only as good as the defense and system in front of them.

Husso was good before he came here. Sucks here.
Ned was good before he came here. Sucked here. Left. Got good again.

I don't expect much of literally any goalie that comes here until we fix the abomination that is our blue line.

Husso was good for 20 games here. Then he sucked as the games kept piling on.

Also... the previous season with the Blues he played his first 20 games over the span of 4 months. Great numbers. Then he played his next 20 games in the span of 2 months. League average. Husso doesn't have starter stamina. Ned also doesn't have starter stamina.

 

[Frk It]

You think by adding Gustafsson, Talbot, Motte and Tarasenko that our GAA will be better?

Tell me why Talbot should be included here?

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Tell me why Talbot should be included here?

Compare the team he played behind in LA and the team he'll play behind in Detroit. LA is much better defensively than Detroit systematically and in terms of personnel.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Gus is better defensively than Ghost.
Talbot is a better goalie than Husso.
Motte is better defensively than Sprong.
Tarasenko is better defensively than Fabbri.

Gus is really not better than Ghost. I'd expect Gus to have roughly the same defensive metrics on Detroit while having worse offensive metrics.
Motte is better than Sprong defensively, sure. But the team possession metrics were shit. Motte's possession metrics are horrendous. We can all appreciate how scrappy and defensive he is while chasing the puck carrier in his own zone all game.
Tarasenko being better defensively than Fabbri? That one is probably about equal.
Talbot is better than Husso is TBD at the moment. The system will play a major part in that, and I don't think that Detroit will be better defensively than last year when the only major difference is a full season of Ed vs a full season of Walman.

Our team defense really, REALLY needed one of the premier RDs to sign with the team. Instead Detroit got bargain bin signings. I'm expecting worse puck movement with higher GA and lower GF output by Detroit as a result.

 

[norrisnick]

Gus is really not better than Ghost. I'd expect Gus to have roughly the same defensive metrics on Detroit while having worse offensive metrics.
Motte is better than Sprong defensively, sure. But the team possession metrics were shit. Motte's possession metrics are horrendous. We can all appreciate how scrappy and defensive he is while chasing the puck carrier in his own zone all game.
Tarasenko being better defensively than Fabbri? That one is probably about equal.
Talbot is better than Husso is TBD at the moment. The system will play a major part in that, and I don't think that Detroit will be better defensively than last year when the only major difference is a full season of Ed vs a full season of Walman.

Our team defense really, REALLY needed one of the premier RDs to sign with the team. Instead Detroit got bargain bin signings. I'm expecting worse puck movement with higher GA and lower GF output by Detroit as a result.

You are dramatically underselling how bad Ghost is in non-PP situations.

Given your current pic I'm not sure how much stock I'd put in your expectations...

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

You are dramatically underselling how bad Ghost is in non-PP situations.

Given your current pic I'm not sure how much stock I'd put in your expectations...

No, I'm not. I'm just trying to say that Gustafsson is every bit as bad in 5v5 when not being absolutely sheltered. There's a reason the guy bounces around so much.

You're not going to get a real upgrade on Ghost in free agency for less money than we paid Ghost.

 

[Frk It]

Compare the team he played behind in LA and the team he'll play behind in Detroit. LA is much better defensively than Detroit systematically and in terms of personnel.

Look at this entire body of work over the last 3 seasons. Easily an upgrade over anything else we have in net.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Look at this entire body of work over the last 3 seasons. Easily an upgrade over anything else we have in net.

My brother in christ, @Bench is an upgrade on what we had in net last season most nights.

 

[Cake Eater]

The thing is, are they worth $8M a year though?
Seider has been consistent, but we need him to take steps offensively and add more points as well as being even stronger defensively. I think in Seider's case it would make sense to offer the long term deal.

In Raymond's case he has been trending up, but defensively still ways to go and should one better season after his good rookie year and sophomore slump be enough in his position to demand such money and for Detroit to give that money? It's a bigger risk than with Seider I think, and would rather see him been given 3-year deal than 8 at the moment. And if Yzerman doesn't want to commit to 8, then it needs to be like 5-6 which is a risk on both ends. Raymond could not live up to deal or Detroit could end up losing him earlier if he wants to test market elsewhere.

What in tarnation. Raymond is very good defensively. Are you thinking of someone else?

 

[Henkka]

Gus is really not better than Ghost. I'd expect Gus to have roughly the same defensive metrics on Detroit while having worse offensive metrics.
Motte is better than Sprong defensively, sure. But the team possession metrics were shit. Motte's possession metrics are horrendous.

Don't look on those stats. And stop talking about it. They won't tell a shit about guys who start only from Dzone.

It's the most worthless data shit about advanced stats we currently have.

For example, if 1st PK players, in every NHL team, have worse stats than 2nd unit players, what does it tell for you?

If it does not tell anything, we don't have anything to discuss.

 

[The Zermanator]

My brother in christ, @Bench is an upgrade on what we had in net last season most nights.

So if you think the goaltending has been upgraded, why wouldn't you think the GA would improve? We didn't get worse elsewhere to counteract the goaltending improvement.

 

[Oddbob]

So if you think the goaltending has been upgraded, why wouldn't you think the GA would improve? We didn't get worse elsewhere to counteract the goaltending improvement.

I mean Holl and Petry are still here and a year older, which could be bad for us if Ed and Aljo don't play as well as we hope.

 

[Henkka]

I mean Holl and Petry are still here and a year older, which could be bad for us if Ed and Aljo don't play as well as we hope.

Quite sure Seider will develop 2x more than any veterans will regress.

 

[13to40]

8x8
8x8

Team is winning as early as the next season with such contracts.

I’m sure players want higher AAV on a longer deal or a shorter term to cash in after the next few seasons.

I think these contracts are definitely signed before training camp though.

They will be the big announcements to be made leading up to camp.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

So if you think the goaltending has been upgraded, why wouldn't you think the GA would improve? We didn't get worse elsewhere to counteract the goaltending improvement.

Because the rest of the roster has been downgraded. Talbot being only an average-ish goaltender will see lower stats from playing in front of a bad defense. He may be better than Husso, but that's only one part of the equation.

 

[Henkka]

Because the rest of the roster has been downgraded. Talbot being only an average-ish goaltender will see lower stats from playing in front of a bad defense. He may be better than Husso, but that's only one part of the equation.

Talbot still has better stats behind bad defence, than any other Red Wings goalie.

So he is an upgrade.

 

[norrisnick]

Because the rest of the roster has been downgraded. Talbot being only an average-ish goaltender will see lower stats from playing in front of a bad defense. He may be better than Husso, but that's only one part of the equation.

Not defensively.

 

[The Zermanator]

Because the rest of the roster has been downgraded. Talbot being only an average-ish goaltender will see lower stats from playing in front of a bad defense. He may be better than Husso, but that's only one part of the equation.

How, exactly? Seems like a wash at worst to me, with the potential to be much better depending on certain players' continued development.

 

[Oddbob]

How, exactly? Seems like a wash at worst to me, with the potential to be much better depending on certain players' continued development.

I don't think downgraded, but I definitely don't think we upgraded at all. Talbot is really the only real difference, and if he isn't LA good, we are in trouble.

 

[The Zermanator]

I don't think downgraded, but I definitely don't think we upgraded at all. Talbot is really the only real difference, and if he isn't LA good, we are in trouble.

That's my point though. If the rest of the team stayed the same but the goaltending improved, then it's reasonable to expect fewer goals against. And it's not just Talbot, it's the Talbot/Lyon tandem which is a much better one than last year. Talbot is a definite upgrade on Reimer, and Lyon at <40 games should be an upgrade over Lyon at >40 games, since his performance trailed off quite a bit once he got overworked.

 

[Euro Twins]

I don't think downgraded, but I definitely don't think we upgraded at all. Talbot is really the only real difference, and if he isn't LA good, we are in trouble.

Tarasenko is a definitive upgrade. Edvinsson for a full year is an upgrade.

 

[Gniwder]

No, I'm not. I'm just trying to say that Gustafsson is every bit as bad in 5v5 when not being absolutely sheltered. There's a reason the guy bounces around so much.

You're not going to get a real upgrade on Ghost in free agency for less money than we paid Ghost.

Gus is significantly better than Ghost defensively. If you're setting the bar that low, you're in for a pleasant surprise. He isn't anywhere close as good on PP, but that just means Mo gets to be on PP1.

 

[Henkka]

Tarasenko is a definitive upgrade. Edvinsson for a full year is an upgrade.

Yah, and Kane for full year is and upgrade, healthy Larkin is an upgrade, Raymond taking a next step for full year is an upgrade. Seider taking a step is an upgrade. Talbot is an upgrade, Gustafsson is upgrade defensively, Motte is an upgrade on PK.

Everything cumulates for a better team, which can win more close games.

Like every of those listed 9 upgrades will give us 0,5 extra points, we'll end up to 95-96 points and that's pure realism.

 

[JohanFranzenstein]

Jarvis signed 8x8, figure Raymond will be signed in a few days or so to almost the exact same deal.

 

[Euro Twins]

Jarvis signed 8x8, figure Raymond will be signed in a few days or so to almost the exact same deal.

I'll take it.

Yah, and Kane for full year is and upgrade, healthy Larkin is an upgrade, Raymond taking a next step for full year is an upgrade. Seider taking a step is an upgrade. Talbot is an upgrade, Gustafsson is upgrade defensively, Motte is an upgrade on PK.

Everything cumulates for a better team, which can win more close games.

Like every of those listed 9 upgrades will give us 0,5 extra points, we'll end up to 95-96 points and that's pure realism.

Kane I'm not going to put on that list myself. Only because we still don't know how well his hip will hold up. If his hip doesn't cause him pain all year and he has a full offseason workout, training camp, and pre season he could be a massive boost to the team this year