Player Discussion Rasmus Dahlin Part 4 - D (1st Overall, 2018, Frölunda HC, SHL)

[Jim Bob]

Depends on how greedy Dahlin is. The longer this contract takes the greedier Dahlin is. KA can't give him $12 mil when TT gets $7 mil. If he doesn't understand that then the trade market is the way to go. Sabres can get a shitload if that happens.

No

You pay Dahlin whatever he wants to stay here for 8 more years.

Also no.

 

[Jim Bob]

I think team friendly would be a dollar over Eichel. If Dahlin signs for anything under 11, I'm springing for four jerseys immediately.

With Tage/Cozens/Sammy there was risk and limited sample size. They will all be viewed as bargain contracts, if not already.

With Ras there is no risk and significant track record. But also, I predict we will also consider his a bargain contract in a couple years as well.

I think team friendly would be the average AAV of the top 10 highest paid D in the NHL.

Average of the top 10 = $9.689233M AAV
Average of the top 5 = $10.2166M AAV
Average of the top 4 = $10.396M AAV
Average of the top 3 = $10.694M AAV

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I think team friendly would be the average AAV of the top 10 highest paid D in the NHL.

Average of the top 10 = $9.689233M AAV
Average of the top 5 = $10.2166M AAV
Average of the top 4 = $10.396M AAV
Average of the top 3 = $10.694M AAV

Those numbers would be more relevant if expressed in cap% terms at signing.

 

[Jim Bob]

Those numbers would be more relevant if expressed in cap% terms at signing.

Top 3 - 13.8% ($11.592M)
Top 5 - 12.98% ($10.9032M)
Top 10 - 12.17% ($10.2228M)

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Top 3 - 13.8% ($11.592M)
Top 5 - 12.98% ($10.9032M)
Top 10 - 12.17% ($10.2228M)

If the cap is going up next year to 87.5M than 12.17% would be 10.6M right?

 

[Jim Bob]

View attachment 742243

If the cap is going up next year to 87.5M than 12.17% would be 10.6M right?

If you want to go by the % when the contract kicks in, that likely changes some of the top 10 %s.

 

[Intermission]

Dahlin is worth 12 minimum in comparison....

Big if true.

 

[Guy Tetreault]

Il mérite 12,5 X 8 = 100 millions. Il est le meilleur défenseur de la ligue.

 

[UnleashRasmus]

Sorry, Dahlin isn't getting 12.5M. The 10.5M is right around the capped amount that I personally think is fair.

 

[brian_griffin]

Il mérite 12,5 X 8 = 100 millions. Il est le meilleur défenseur de la ligue.

Until he is universally acclaimed as such, I expect the contract will be far less.

 

[Guy Tetreault]

Jusqu’à ce qu’il soit universellement acclamé comme tel, je m’attends à ce que le contrat soit beaucoup moins.

Donc, il ne signera que pour 4 ans

 

[brian_griffin]

Sorry, Dahlin isn't getting 12.5M. The 10.5M is right around the capped amount that I personally think is fair.

While I agree, a key question to me is what cap do you use to determine the fair percentage amount? $83.5M this season? the projected $87.5M = 4.7% increase (too large?) for next year? Recognize Dahlin is arbitration-eligible next offseason, so his side might argue there is minimal risk (other than career-ending injury) to the Dahlin by waiting.

I'll be pleased at $10.5-10.6M range, expect up to $11.4 range, will be surprised & disappointed if it's more.

 

[brian_griffin]

Donc, il ne signera que pour 4 ans

$12.5M would be 14% of the projected 2024-25 cap. Until the 2024-25 cap is announced, it is only a projection, so Sabres would be legit in sticking to a smaller percentage of that projected cap.

If Dahlin's side wants to hard-ball, he'd only sign for 1 more season because he'd be a UFA due to 7 accrued seasons following the 2024-25 season.

The earnings differential between a ($12.5M 4-year term) and an ($10.5M - $11.5M 8-year term) and a (1-year $14M season with a 4th contract) is minimal vs. the potential career-ending injury risk when not under contract.

 

[MillerTime]

 

[oldgoalie]

Rasmus not buying the long term outlook and looking for an earlier exit point?

 

[DapperCam]

Rasmus not buying the long term outlook and looking for an earlier exit point?

More like, he sees the cap increasing a lot over the next 5 years and wants another, even bigger, pay day.

 

[TehDoak]

Rasmus not buying the long term outlook and looking for an earlier exit point?

More like, he sees the cap increasing a lot over the next 5 years and wants another, even bigger, pay day.

I mean, it's not good that it isn't done. But my guess is that the cap rising is the bigger issue here.

 

[HOOats]

More like, he sees the cap increasing a lot over the next 5 years and wants another, even bigger, pay day.

Yeah this is it. Like Matthews, it's what superstars should do if they're looking out for their wallet first. It never made sense that he'd take 8x10 only to be the 15th highest paid D for half a decade when the cap shoots up.

If this is the case though, I am a little bummed that Ras isn't being a "team guy" like Tage and Cozens were. If he's the player we all think he is, fine whatever, but he better be easy top 5 Norris every year if he's holding out feet to the fire.

 

[gallagt01]

Didn't Peters and Rivet just report that Dahlin and Buffalo were closing in on 8 years, $10.5m? That's quite a change if so.

 

[Jim Bob]

Didn't Peters and Rivet just report that Dahlin and Buffalo were closing in on 8 years, $10.5m? That's quite a change if so.

Peters said he was hearing the AAV was going to be $10.5M from a reliable source.

I do not remember him talking about the length of the deal.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Didn't Peters and Rivet just report that Dahlin and Buffalo were closing in on 8 years, $10.5m? That's quite a change if so.

Chad has been reporting more or less the same thing. Maybe his agent was inspired by the Matthews contract and is now going in another direction. Probably a smart move considering the owners. Horrible news for us fans though.

Isn't he restricted? He doesn't get to dictate the terms...unless he's willing to hold out.

 

[Sabreality]

Petey lookin for clicks, I don't take stock into anything that clown has to say.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

Petey lookin for clicks, I don't take stock into anything that clown has to say.

I mean.. the guy broke what was probably the biggest trade in team history so he definitely has an inside source.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I mean.. the guy broke what was probably the biggest trade in team history so he definitely has an inside source.

He reported two separate things and they both can't be true, so one of his reports are false...or the situation changed, which is bad.

 

[brian_griffin]

Chad has been reporting more or less the same thing. Maybe his agent was inspired by the Matthews contract and is now going in another direction. Probably a smart move considering the owners. Horrible news for us fans though.


Isn't he restricted? He doesn't get to dictate the terms...unless he's willing to hold out.

He's under contract for this season, and arbitration-eligible next offseason.
Given the differential $$ in play for 3 years of the extension, a potential holdout carries a far higher likelihood than "betting on himself" and playing out this final season of his 2nd contract with risk of injury scuttling the future.

Example:
A. 12-13% of $85.3 or $87.5M for 8 years
B. Same % of cap as above for 5 years and 3 (assume 4th contract would be more) years at same percentage of a >$92M cap.

In the end, I suspect it's Dahlin camp's strategy to get a bump from $10.5 to $11.5M per.