Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres
Of the 2024 restricted free agents, the player who seems closest to an extension is Rasmus Dahlin. The 23-year-old is coming off a three-year deal that carried a $6 million cap hit, signed by then-general manager Jason Botterill.
So now’s the time for a long-term deal.
Kevyn Adams has signed a handful of long-term deals since taking over as general manager, but none have had an outrageously high cap hit. If anything, it feels like Tage Thompson’s $7.1 million AAV has been an internal cap of sorts. But that limit probably doesn’t apply to Dahlin — his actual salary for this upcoming season is above that at $7.2 million.
Had his contract expired this year, Evolving-Hockey would have projected an eight-year deal worth a $10.5 million cap hit. While he has another year, this still seems like a fair endpoint. It would be worth 12 percent of the cap in the first year, which would be a little above the Cale Makars and Adam Foxes of the world. It may seem steep but is more a consequence of that bridge deal (which made sense at the time of the signing). But this would stay below his market value, which The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn’s model projects to be around $12 million, on average, over the next seven years, after his current contract ends.
Adding a contract of that magnitude to the books in Buffalo would be significant, but it’s a worthwhile bet to make for a No. 1 defenseman whose game has stabilized after a slower start. As the Sabres continue to improve, Dahlin should have more support, which should keep his value high to match that salary as the contract ages.