Well, players often take risks, this phrase about the risk of injury is already like a cliché. Players are betting on themselves and if Dahlin has an even better season, especially when it comes to points, he will easily get 10+. But I hope he will sign now, even if it is 10-10.5 million.
Dahlin already bet on himself with his 2nd contract (bridge deal).
The total money Dahlin puts at risk by not signing a long term deal as soon as it is offered dramatically outweighs the cumulative incremental money he could make by betting on himself for 1 more year.
Example: 8x10=$80M and career ended* by injury at any point during those 8 years vs. 8x12.5=100M but career ending injury* this season.
*Doesn't even need to be career ending injury, just an injury that drops his (future) 4th contract to a fraction of his pending 3rd contract.
Why would anyone put a small, say 5% chance, of not being paid $100M for a $20M cumulative differential over 8 years?
Example sign now: (8 x $10M * 100%) = $80M
Example sign 2024 offseason: ((8 X 12.5M * 95%) + (8 x 0 * 5%)) = $95M. Difference is $15M (total over 8 years).
What would a $15M personal insurance policy from Lloyds or similar agency cost him for this season?
If you/others don't like the 5% injury assumption, pick your own percentage and multiply accordingly, and take the differential amount.
If I were making a personal investment, (i.e., a dividend paying stock or a coupon bond because it has an annual income stream), I would much rather lock in an income stream now vs. betting on a rate increase a year from now, even if the probability of the rate of return increasing is >>50%, because there is a non-zero probability the company goes out of business, and there is a probability <50% the rate of return doesn't increase significantly beyond the growth rate of the market as a whole (using that last part as an analogy for the increase in the salary cap).
If Dahlin plays out the last year of his deal, puts up 85+ points he is not signing an extension and will sign his QO and hold ALL the cards. Now I'm not saying he would definitely be gone if he went that route but he would take no discount. Why take a discount to continue to miss the playoffs?
If Dahlin was locked long term then the patient route is "OK" (not really but whatever ) but we MUST make it this year. Dahlin is a competitor and is sick of losing. And after seeing his teammate lead his team to a CUP while he is at home every spring watching the playoffs may make him leave.
Matthews just got an insane amount for just 4 years. Dahlin needs to get paid asap. His # is going up every week he is unsigned.
I don't agree with the bolded. The only thing which would change his next contract value is (a) greater certainty on future years' salary cap. (b) Full 2023-24 season performance numbers. Neither of those will change week by week.
Is there another pending RFA young d-man who is similarly eligible to sign an extension who may be used as a Dahlin comparable? That's the only factor which could change "week by week", but it will be a static driver (if it even is) and not one which has a passage-of-time impact.
Crazy good video, showcases his biggest strengths so well
And he makes it look so effortless. Great video. 21 minutes not wasted.
I hear Dahlin was offered a deal in Pegula bucks he can spend at the Sabres store.
Would love it if Dahlin bought any/all of the translucent-when-wet-with-sweat white pants and sent them to some semi-pro-team in Eastbuttf***istan in the KHL feeder league.
You are the only Sabres fan I know who would be satisfied with four years.
This would be a very brilliant strategy to sell tickets over the summer so you might be right.
Pretty sure
@joshjull's 4-year comment, 5-years under contract, were in the context of the alternative of not having him signed. Obvious to any/all posters, Sabres and non-Sabres fans alike that the longest term Dahlin would be willing to sign is the most preferable.
I don't understand the second snark. Dahlin is under contract for 2023-24 so how does his signing or not signing an extension impact both the fans desire and ability to see him play for the Sabres this coming season?
