Player Discussion Rasmus Dahlin Part 4 - D (1st Overall, 2018, Frölunda HC, SHL)

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Its not a matter of rationalizing anything. Its about understanding all of the elements that drive the market. I mean there is a clear example of what I’m talking about with Jones/Nurse having bigger cap hits than Makar. Its certainly not because they as good as Makar, let alone better than him. Its because their deals are all UFA years.

I also haven’t said he earned a 8x10 deal or that its a given he‘ll get it. I’m saying the path to that contract isn’t hard to see. He would need to continue his play from the 2nd half of last year through this season.

Its kind of bizarre how triggered you get over that 8x10 deal.


PS:I love how you add the qualifier of dmen under 32 to exclude the two highest cap hit dmen (Karlsson 11.5mi/Doughty 11mil). Since 10mil per more wouldn’t make Dahlin the highest paid dman.

There's also the small matter of those other contracts being signed in a flat cap environment, where Dahlins could potentially come when that is no longer an issue.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

For an 8 yr contract, he could land anywhere between $9.5M - $11M AAV depending on what kind of season he has. Any lower than $9.5, it'll be a shorter term deal.

 

[Dingo44]

Just pay the man. He'll be worth it. He's only 22 now. If we give him an 8 year in a year he'll be in his prime the entire contract and be a top 5 defenseman in the league. No brainer.

 

[joshjull]

Not entirely. RFA vs. UFA years is a factor. So too is the productivity of the player. There is a substantial argument to be made that guys like Fox and Makar are well above the level of compensation Dahlin should be paid based on cap percentage. Using McAvoy as a comp - age when he signed vs. when Dahlin will be done with his current deal (they both did 3 year ELC, 3 year bridge), then look at his overall level of play and again it is someone who has been better than Dahlin thus far. If Rasmus is able to start tilting the ice in his team's favor to the degree McAvoy can, then lets start thinking about paying him as much.

I can't help but think this conversation has shades of the Eichel deal and I don't get the urge to pay him more than comps who have been better players thus far in their careers.

A few things

1) Its frustrating to be told by a couple posters that I’m handing Dahlin a 8x10 contract. When I’m actually laying out his path to earning one. Namely playing this season like the 2nd half of last year. I haven’t given him anything. But I am saying the path to that deal is pretty straightforward.

2) Makar/Fox are not relevant comparables because they had 4 RFA years in their deals. I don’t know why some of you are insisting otherwise. If how good a player was had as big of a role as you’re trying to argue. Then Nurse/Jones wouldn’t be making as much or more than Makar/Fox. Their UFA years elevated their pay to the same level as superior players.

3) Dahlin has outproduced McAvoy at the same point of their careers. Hes done it playing on a much more inferior and disfunctional team. He would have blown McAvoy’s production out of the water If he was with the Bruins

 

[joshjull]

A comparison of McAvoy’s production prior to signing his contract to Dahlin to this point.

McAvoy pre contract after his D+5 season
235gms 24g (.10/gm) 98a (.42/gm) 122pts(.52/gm)

Dahlin to date after his D+4 season
277gms 31g (.12/gm) 129a (.47/gm) 160pts (.58/gm)


Dahlin outproduced McAvoy playing for the clown show we were. While McAvoy played for one of the top teams in the league surrounded by far more talent and structure. Yet I’m supposed to believe there is a big gap between them?

By the end of next season (barring injury) Dahlin will have over 100 more games under his belt than McAvoy did at the time he signed his deal. Barring any regression, he will have outproduced McAvoy in a much larger sample size and did it playing on an inferior team. Yet suggesting Dahlin gets similar or slightly better deal than McAvoy is somehow viewed as crazy.


Another fun comparison, their best seasons to date. In both cases it was this past one

McAvoy (D+6 season) 78gms 10g 46a 56pts
Dahlin (D+4 season) 80gms 13g 40a 53pts

Pretty similar seasons with Dahlin two years earlier in his development.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

Just pay the man. He'll be worth it. He's only 22 now. If we give him an 8 year in a year he'll be in his prime the entire contract and be a top 5 defenseman in the league. No brainer.

This mentality drives me nuts. Let's hope Adams is made of sterner stuff during contract negotiations.

It bears repeating - Sakic, not Dubas.

 

[joshjull]

This mentality drives me nuts. Let's hope Adams is made of sterner stuff during contract negotiations.

It bears repeating - Sakic, not Dubas.

It bears repeating you don’t get the contract dynamics.

EDIT: I’m not trying to be snarky. But the opportunity to do what Sakic did with Makar was when Dahlin got his bridge. That ship has sailed. We’re dealing with different factors now when Dahlin’s contract comes up.

 

[Dingo44]

This mentality drives me nuts. Let's hope Adams is made of sterner stuff during contract negotiations.

It bears repeating - Sakic, not Dubas.

You act like Adams is just going to take Dahlin's agent's first offer or pay the league maximum.

And this is such a silly thing to have "drive [you] nuts".

I can predict right now that when Dahlin gets paid - and he will get paid - you're not going to like it. But we'll be fine - they will have planned for his salary. We have so many good young prospects even if we have to move out guys we have a very fat pipeline right now. But in the grand scheme of things it's not going to be a big deal - not even near what you are making it out to be.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

Its not a matter of rationalizing anything. Its about understanding all of the elements that drive the market. I mean there is a clear example of what I’m talking about with Jones/Nurse having bigger cap hits than Makar. Its certainly not because they as good as Makar, let alone better than him. Its because their deals are all UFA years.

I also haven’t said he earned a 8x10 deal or that its a given he‘ll get it. I’m saying the path to that contract isn’t hard to see. He would need to continue his play from the 2nd half of last year through this season.

Its kind of bizarre how triggered you get over that 8x10 deal.


PS:I love how you add the qualifier of dmen under 32 to exclude the two highest cap hit dmen (Karlsson 11.5mi/Doughty 11mil). Since 10mil per wouldn’t make Dahlin the highest paid dman.

It took a while, but welcome aboard the prove-you're-worth-it-first train.

The Karlsson and Doughty contracts are horrific, and they're a generation beyond Dahlin. I thought we were interested in comparable situations only?

You act like Adams is just going to take Dahlin's agent's first offer or pay the league maximum.

And this is such a silly thing to have "drive [you] nuts".

I can predict right now that when Dahlin gets paid - and he will get paid - you're not going to like it. But we'll be fine - they will have planned for his salary. We have so many good young prospects even if we have to move out guys we have a very fat pipeline right now. But in the grand scheme of things it's not going to be a big deal - not even near what you are making it out to be.

I'll like his contract if he's earned it. Adams should be paying for proven results, not potential.

Let's not get all starry-eyed about Dahlin's achievements to date.

 

[joshjull]

It took a while, but welcome aboard the prove-you're-worth-it-first train.

The Karlsson and Doughty contracts are horrific, and they're a generation beyond Dahlin. I thought we were interested in comparable situations only?

Nope. Your reading comprehension has sucked throughout. You just assumed I said something about him already earning it. Combine that with your complete inability to understand how the market works and we get the back and forth we had.

 

[Chainshot]

A few things

1) Its frustrating to be told by a couple posters that I’m handing Dahlin a 8x10 contract. When I’m actually laying out his path to earning one. Namely playing this season like the 2nd half of last year. I haven’t given him anything. But I am saying the path to that deal is pretty straightforward.

2) Makar/Fox are not relevant comparables because they had 4 RFA years in their deals. I don’t know why some of you are insisting otherwise. If how good a player was had as big of a role as you’re trying to argue. Then Nurse/Jones wouldn’t be making as much or more than Makar/Fox. Their UFA years elevated their pay to the same level as superior players.

3) Dahlin has outproduced McAvoy at the same point of their careers. Hes done it playing on a much more inferior and disfunctional team. He would have blown McAvoy’s production out of the water If he was with the Bruins

Didn't mean to imply that you are the one driving the bus for a 8x10(or more) contract, just an observation that we're in similar phase of needing to see the player show.

As for point 3, offensively, yes. In his own zone though? Moving play out and not being scored upon, McAvoy is as gifted a defensive player as there is out there. Dahlin is still finding his way there.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

Nope. Your reading comprehension has sucked throughout. You just assumed I said something about him already earning it. Combine that with your complete inability to understand how the market works and we get the back and forth we had.

I apologize if I've misinterpreted your intent. Your CBA knowledge far exceeds mine.

Hopefully Dahlin improves on his recent fine play, gets the extension he deserves, and leads the franchise to the success we all want.

 

[joshjull]

Didn't mean to imply that you are the one driving the bus for a 8x10(or more) contract, just an observation that we're in similar phase of needing to see the player show.

As for point 3, offensively, yes. In his own zone though? Moving play out and not being scored upon, McAvoy is as gifted a defensive player as there is out there. Dahlin is still finding his way there.

I don‘t think there is a much of gap between them defensively (Certainly not with the Dahlin from 2nd half of last season). I think McAvoy’s defensive reputation has been enhanced playing for the Bruins. McAvoy’s mistakes were far less likely to end up in his net with the supporting cast he had. Dahlin situation was clearly much much worse.

Its basically the difference between the benefits a player gets playing for one of the best teams in the NHL who has great defensive structure and very good goaltending. VS the drag on a player playing for one of the worst franchisees in the NHL with horrid goaltending.

Its not that Dahlin doesn’t have work to do . But the perceived defensive gap between him and McAvoy is heavily influenced by factors neither has much control over. Dahlin has to be that much better to close the perception gap.

 

[joshjull]

I apologize if I've misinterpreted your intent. Your CBA knowledge far exceeds mine.

No it doesn’t.

In fairness to you I stepped into a pretty lively debate between you and some other posters about that contract. I could have been clearer with what I was saying. So its not that surprising our wires got crossed.

Hopefully Dahlin improves on his recent fine play, gets the extension he deserves, and leads the franchise to the success we all want.

Agreed

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

A comparison of McAvoy’s production prior to signing his contract to Dahlin to this point.

McAvoy pre contract after his D+5 season
235gms 24g (.10/gm) 98a (.42/gm) 122pts(.52/gm)

Dahlin to date after his D+4 season
277gms 31g (.12/gm) 129a (.47/gm) 160pts (.58/gm)


Dahlin outproduced McAvoy playing for the clown show we were. While McAvoy played for one of the top teams in the league surrounded by far more talent and structure. Yet I’m supposed to believe there is a big gap between them?

By the end of next season (barring injury) Dahlin will have over 100 more games under his belt than McAvoy did at the time he signed his deal. Barring any regression, he will have outproduced McAvoy in a much larger sample size and did it playing on an inferior team. Yet suggesting Dahlin gets similar or slightly better deal than McAvoy is somehow viewed as crazy.


Another fun comparison, their best seasons to date. In both cases it was this past one

McAvoy (D+6 season) 78gms 10g 46a 56pts
Dahlin (D+4 season) 80gms 13g 40a 53pts

Pretty similar seasons with Dahlin two years earlier in his development.

I must have missed it when McAvoy signed his contract. He definitely deserves it but hoo boy, $9.5M is a big number.

I guess conbtract comparissons are mostly done by measuring production, so I agree with you point, but McAvoy brings SO MUCH more that I think he's earned and is paid for more than just his production. He's a uniquely well rounded Dman.

But yeah, considering that contract, Dahlin would have to play a full season like the fist half of last season to NOT earn at least $10M.

 

[elchud]

The cap is going to go up. Its like how wide receivers or defensive ends of cornerbacks or quarterbacks leapfrog each other every couple years.

If Dahlin plays at the level he did the 2nd half of last season, 8 years x 10 million is reasonable. If he is better we would be lucky to get him at 8 years x 11. Im expecting, and will be OK with, the latter.

 

[sabremike]

Could you imagine if RBA had gotten a lobotomy and told Svech "I don't want you doing any of that dynamic goal scoring stuff that you do really well, I want you to be a checking line grinder"? That's essentially what Coach Carny Conman did with Dahlin. The second half of the season was the real Dahlin and THAT Dahlin is a future Norris Trophy winner.

 

[UnleashRasmus]

Personally if you can get him at 8.5-9.5, do it in a heartbeat. It just depends on what he wants to do, and if he wants to be here long term.

 

[sabremike]

Personally if you can get him at 8.5-9.5, do it in a heartbeat. It just depends on what he wants to do, and if he wants to be here long term.

We would gladly give him an Eichel style megadeal with numbers in that ballpark but it appears he doesn't want that right now. There is an obvious reason for this and it isn't "he wants to get out of Buffalo".

 

[yzerman]

Saw today he has a lookalike in the womens tennis or is it just me to think so?she is pretty highly ranked at 43 in the world playing Venus Williams right now in the Us open in New York

Alison Van Uytvanck | Player Stats & More – WTA Official

Get the latest Player Stats on Alison Van Uytvanck including her videos, highlights, and more at the official Women's Tennis Association website.

www.wtatennis.com

 

[elchud]

I wish RJ woulda done a Oh My Dahlin, Oh My Dahlin, Oh My Dahhhhhhlin. Maybe it woulda been cringe but maybe it coulda have been fa-la-la-la-la level

 

[joshjull]

I must have missed it when McAvoy signed his contract. He definitely deserves it but hoo boy, $9.5M is a big number.

I guess conbtract comparissons are mostly done by measuring production, so I agree with you point, but McAvoy brings SO MUCH more that I think he's earned and is paid for more than just his production. He's a uniquely well rounded Dman.

But yeah, considering that contract, Dahlin would have to play a full season like the fist half of last season to NOT earn at least $10M.

Part of my point was if Dahlin could out produce him playing here with the clown show we’ve been. He would have blown McAvoy’s numbers out of the water had he played on those Bruins teams instead of McAvoy.

 

[MOGlLNY]

If Dahlin plays like he did in the second half of the season all year, I would give him damn near whatever he wants at max term. No question, he was flat out dominant and an elite franchise player after the All-Star Game. That game against Vancouver was incredible.

 

[Zman5778]

If Dahlin plays like he did in the second half of the season all year, I would give him damn near whatever he wants at max term. No question, he was flat out dominant and an elite franchise player after the All-Star Game. That game against Vancouver was incredible.

You mention that Vancouver game........but the best thing about Dahlin is that he was starting to consistently be the best player on the ice for both teams.

Which is basically what he was hyped to be.

 

[K8fool]

I wouldn't be surprised the salary range they all agreed on was 5 to 9 to actually contend for playoff success without cap limiting their ability to remain as a group and sign only those from outside willing to sign less to be a part of what is being built. (or f off) . W the talent coming up.there will be half the team either on bridge ,role or elc so that 3d and 6forwards can be role paid much like songwriting credits paid to all band members .. Less high deals but greater term .

Dahlin is up next to earn . Cozens Mitts make or break over next two etc . Well thought out incentives that aren't really a big deal abd.. It's up to the player as mgmt has made clear what is range and how to achieve without the league or agents really dictating.

Could be brilliant.