Player Discussion Rasmus Dahlin Part 4 - D (1st Overall, 2018, Frölunda HC, SHL)

[HogtownSabresfan]

Why is it a major mistake? We still have team control when he hits RFA. It wouldn’t be much different than the tkachuk situation

We'd have less team control -- not a position of strength in any way.

 

[Dex]

nvm

 

[Diaspora]

Okay, let's agonize then. Dahlin's contemporaries, by tier and current contract in $M ...

1 - Makar 9
2 - Fox 9.5, Hughes 7.85, Heiskanen 8.45, McAvoy 9.5, Werenski 9.6
3 - Dahlin 6, Sergachev 8.5 (from 23/24), Chabot 8

Dahlin is on the cusp of being in that 2nd tier, and will obviously be due a raise. It will require a significant step up in play to have earned a $10M+ contract imo, however. The absurd contracts gifted to Jones and Nurse should not be considered precedents.

It is currently unknown how Adams will handle superstar contracts, because we don't have a proven one, yet. But let's hope he's more like Sakic than Dubas or Holland. Hopefully Adams' "players who want to be here" mantra implies "hometown discount".

(Trying to keep this simple, without tumbling down into the who-what-tier and AAV-cap-term rabbit holes. Your tiering is probably different. That's okay.)

Over next ten years, the cap will go up, up, up. Dahlin at 8x10 is fair value.

 

[joshjull]

Okay, let's agonize then. Dahlin's contemporaries, by tier and current contract in $M ...

1 - Makar 9
2 - Fox 9.5, Hughes 7.85, Heiskanen 8.45, McAvoy 9.5, Werenski 9.6
3 - Dahlin 6, Sergachev 8.5 (from 23/24), Chabot 8

Dahlin is on the cusp of being in that 2nd tier, and will obviously be due a raise. It will require a significant step up in play to have earned a $10M+ contract imo, however. The absurd contracts gifted to Jones and Nurse should not be considered precedents.

It is currently unknown how Adams will handle superstar contracts, because we don't have a proven one, yet. But let's hope he's more like Sakic than Dubas or Holland. Hopefully Adams' "players who want to be here" mantra implies "hometown discount".

(Trying to keep this simple, without tumbling down into the who-what-tier and AAV-cap-term rabbit holes. Your tiering is probably different. That's okay.)

The problem with your analysis is its ignoring the biggest factor impacting those contracts, the amount of RFA vs UFA years bought. Its why you can’t ignore the Jones contract.

The relevant groupings or “tiers” would be…..


Group #1 -> signed extension after ELC/bought 4 RFA years

Makar ——- 6yrs/9mil (4 RFA/2 UFA) signed in 2021
Hughes —- 6yrs/7.85mil (4 RFA/2 UFA) signed in 2021
Fox ———— 7yrs/9.5mil (4 RFA/3 UFA) signed 2021
Heiskanen - 8yrs/8.45mil (4 RFA/4 UFA) signed 2021
Chabot ——- 8yrs/8mil (4 RFA/4 UFA) signed 2019

You could compare Dahlin’s bridge (3yrs/6mil per) buying 3 RFA years to these deals. Had he signed a longer term extension (6 to 8yrs). His cap hit would likely have been in the 8.5 to 9.5mil range depending on length.

Group #2 -> signed extensions after bridge deal/only bought one RFA year

Werenski — 6yrs/9.583mil (1 RFA/5 UFA) signed in 2021
McAvoy —— 8yrs/9.5mil (1 RFA/7 UFA) signed in 2021
Sergachev — 8yrs/8.5mil (1 RFA/7 UFA) signed in 2022

This is the group that parallels Dahlin’s next contract situation. Considering he will be signing 2-3 years after the first three signed their deals. I’d be very surprised if he didn’t get at least 10mil per.

EDIT: Had to remove Jones. Mistakenly put him in group #2.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

Over next ten years, the cap will go up, up, up. Dahlin at 8x10 is fair value.

"up, up, up"? Pure speculation. The cap is not a hot-air balloon.

Hopefully Adams will negotiate with team success uppermost in mind, not "fair value". The model to follow is Tampa Bay and Colorado, not Toronto.

 

[Dingo44]

Corey Pronman's NHL Pipeline Rankings: No. 1 Buffalo Sabres' future looks bright

Ranking the top prospects and under-23 players in the organization. Plus, what to expect of every player.

theathletic.com

1. Rasmus Dahlin, D

22 years old | 6-foot-3 | 193 pounds | Shoots left

Drafted: No. 1 in 2018
Tier: NHL All-Star

Skating: NHL average
Puck skills: Above NHL average
Hockey sense: Above NHL average
Compete: Below NHL average

Analysis: Four years into Rasmus Dahlin’s NHL career, I think everyone’s eyes are starting to become wide open to what he is and isn’t. He’s an offensive dynamo. There are few defenseman with his frame who can handle the puck like him and make the kind of unique offensive plays he can. His brain operates at a high level of creativity and vision. Dahlin was much more confident using his skill to attack this season. He’s a good skater with good reach, but Dahlin’s not a strong defender due to a lack of physicality and doesn’t look like a player you’ll be projecting to take tough minutes. Even with that in mind he looks like a long-time impactful NHL defenseman who will often be atop the scoring leaders for his position.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Corey Pronman's NHL Pipeline Rankings: No. 1 Buffalo Sabres' future looks bright

Ranking the top prospects and under-23 players in the organization. Plus, what to expect of every player.

theathletic.com

Dahlin has plenty of compete. Go into every GDT and there’s numerous people saying how dirty he is.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

The problem with your analysis is its ignoring the biggest factor impacting those contracts, the amount of RFA vs UFA years bought. Its why you can’t ignore the Jones contract.

The relevant groupings or “tiers” would be…..


Group #1 -> signed extension after ELC/bought 4 RFA years

Makar ——- 6yrs/9mil (4 RFA/2 UFA) signed in 2021
Hughes —- 6yrs/7.85mil (4 RFA/2 UFA) signed in 2021
Fox ———— 7yrs/9.5mil (4 RFA/3 UFA) signed 2021
Heiskanen - 8yrs/8.45mil (4 RFA/4 UFA) signed 2021
Chabot ——- 8yrs/8mil (4 RFA/4 UFA) signed 2019

You could compare Dahlin’s bridge (3yrs/6mil per) buying 3 RFA years to these deals. Had he signed a longer term extension (6 to 8yrs). His cap hit would likely have been in the 8.5 to 9.5mil range depending on length.

Group #2 -> signed extensions after bridge deal/only bought one RFA year

Jones ——- 8yrs/9.5mil (1 RFA/7UFA) signed in 2021
Werenski — 6yrs/9.583mil (1 RFA/5 UFA) signed in 2021
McAvoy —— 8yrs/9.5mil (1 RFA/7 UFA) signed in 2021
Sergachev — 8yrs/8.5mil (1 RFA/7 UFA) signed in 2022

This is the group that parallels Dahlin’s next contract situation. Considering he will be signing 2-3 years after the first three signed their deals. I’d be very surprised if he didn’t get at least 10mil per.

Cogent analysis.

But in what universe does Dahlin deserve more than the contract to which Makar is signed for the next 5 years? That would require an enormous step up in play.

If he takes that step, fine, but the last thing this franchise needs is to jeopardize future team success with exorbitant contracts based on potential.

Shout out to Joe Sakic for creating a precedent that moderates contract lunacy.

 

[Diaspora]

"up, up, up"? Pure speculation. The cap is not a hot-air balloon.

Hopefully Adams will negotiate with team success uppermost in mind, not "fair value". The model to follow is Tampa Bay and Colorado, not Toronto.

Oh, let's not be naive about this. The cap is not a balloon, but prices inflate.

The sun rises in the East, water is wet, and prices go up. Unless talent is an infinite commodity and barring social collapse, salaries will rise and the cap will increase. Count on it.

And, btw, $10m is likely to be seen as team-friendly for an elite producer by the time 2027 rolls around.

 

[joshjull]

Cogent analysis.

But in what universe does Dahlin deserve more than the contract to which Makar is signed for the next 5 years? That would require an enormous step up in play.

If he takes that step, fine, but the last thing this franchise needs is to jeopardize future team success with exorbitant contracts based on potential.

Shout out to Joe Sakic for creating a precedent that moderates contract lunacy.

The point of my previous post was that Makar’s contract is not a relevant comparable to Dahlin‘s next deal. Makar cap hit is “only“ 9mil because its a 6year deal that buys 4 RFA years and only 2 UFA years. .

Dahlin’s next deal will be buying only one RFA year and the rest are UFA years. Its why the relevant comparisons are Jones, Werenski, McAvoy and Sergachev.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

Oh, let's not be naive about this. The cap is not a balloon, but prices inflate.

The sun rises in the East, water is wet, and prices go up. Unless talent is an infinite commodity and barring social collapse, salaries will rise and the cap will increase. Count on it.

And, btw, $10m is likely to be seen as team-friendly for an elite producer by the time 2027 rolls around.

We just experienced 2 consecutive years of flat cap. Hockey revenue is not immune from the vagaries of the economy.

Dahlin is not (yet) a consistent "elite producer". If he fits that description following next season, the 8x$10M extension you suggested might be justifiable. Let's have him earn it first.

 

[Zman5778]

The point of my previous post was that Makar’s contract is not a relevant comparable to Dahlin‘s next deal. Makar cap hit is “only“ 9mil because its a 6year deal that buys 4 RFA years and only 2 UFA years. .

Dahlin’s next deal will be buying only one RFA year and the rest are UFA years. Its why the relevant comparisons are Jones, Werenski, McAvoy and Sergachev.

If Dahlin signs an 8x9.5, I'll consider it a blessing.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

The point of my previous post was that Makar’s contract is not a relevant comparable to Dahlin‘s next deal. Makar cap hit is “only“ 9mil because its a 6year deal that buys 4 RFA years and only 2 UFA years. .

Dahlin’s next deal will be buying only one RFA year and the rest are UFA years. Its why the relevant comparisons are Jones, Werenski, McAvoy and Sergachev.

Okay, let's run with those guys.

Jones: 27. His 8x9.5 extension, starting this season, is arguably the worst d-man contract in the league along with Nurse. Unless he morphs into Lidstrom, he ain't getting any better from here on. Not a useful guide for Dahlin's extension.

Werenski: 25. His 6x9.6 extension takes effect this season. Has had double-digit goals - 11, 16, 11, 20, 11 - every year but his 35-game season in 20/21. CBJ kept the right guy. This is a good comparable for Dahlin's contract, if he proves himself as valuable. He ain't there yet.

McAvoy: 24! Stud. 2nd best young D in the league for my money, even though he probably won't produce truly gaudy offensive stats. His 8x9.5 extension starts this season. Has blossomed in Chara's absence. Totally different player than Dahlin. It's a bigger gap between him and McAvoy than him and Werenski.

Sergachev: 24. His 8x8.5 extension starts in 23/24. Again, a totally different player than Rasmus, but probably has demonstrated similar value up to this point in their careers. Underrated player who inevitably swims in Hedman's wake. Be interesting to see what he can do as Hedman declines.

Dahlin: 22 (I still shake my head at his tender age). Probably would have benefited from a D+1 development season. Progress hampered by Kruger. 1 double-digit goal season in 4. Inconsistent results thus far, somewhat disappointing given his "next Lidstrom" draft hype. Stellar 2nd half of 21/22 needs to be repeated.

Presumably Dahlin will be extended next summer, that contract commencing in 24/25 when he will be 24.

If he regresses ... let's not think too much about that, but 8x10 is out of the question.
If he plateaus - somewhere between Serg and Werenski.
If he takes that next step we all want/expect, i.e. Norris contender - 8x10+, unless Adams can get a team discount from a player who "wants to be here".

Bottom line - he hasn't demonstrated the consistently high level of play that would merit 8x10. Show me, Rasmus.

 

[Fjordy]

 

[Faceboner]

View attachment 579589

Too bad we are bringing that awful slug back

 

[MarkusKetterer]

View attachment 579589

Why does it look like he has a nose ring?

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Perennial post-season award all stars, the first and second team recognitions, don't make that much.

All he's gotta do is be better than Nurse/Jones to crack the $10M mark.

Fox's contract was 11.66% of cap. At $83.5M, it would still be less than 10M AAV/season.

Fox took a discount. Same with severalof the other stars in the league -- you can't go telling Bednard to accept a < $7M AAV deal, for example, because McKinnon did.

 

[Fjordy]

Too bad we are bringing that awful slug back

Hmm. I thought the black one would be an alternative jersey, but this blue one would be a Retro Reverse, there shouldn't be a slug.

 

[Faceboner]

Hmm. I thought the black one would be an alternative jersey, but this blue one would be a Retro Reverse, there shouldn't be a slug.View attachment 579596

That needs to be a jersey

 

[joshjull]

Okay, let's run with those guys.

Jones: 27. His 8x9.5 extension, starting this season, is arguably the worst d-man contract in the league along with Nurse. Unless he morphs into Lidstrom, he ain't getting any better from here on. Not a useful guide for Dahlin's extension.

Werenski: 25. His 6x9.6 extension takes effect this season. Has had double-digit goals - 11, 16, 11, 20, 11 - every year but his 35-game season in 20/21. CBJ kept the right guy. This is a good comparable for Dahlin's contract, if he proves himself as valuable. He ain't there yet.

McAvoy: 24! Stud. 2nd best young D in the league for my money, even though he probably won't produce truly gaudy offensive stats. His 8x9.5 extension starts this season. Has blossomed in Chara's absence. Totally different player than Dahlin. It's a bigger gap between him and McAvoy than him and Werenski.

Sergachev: 24. His 8x8.5 extension starts in 23/24. Again, a totally different player than Rasmus, but probably has demonstrated similar value up to this point in their careers. Underrated player who inevitably swims in Hedman's wake. Be interesting to see what he can do as Hedman declines.

Dahlin: 22 (I still shake my head at his tender age). Probably would have benefited from a D+1 development season. Progress hampered by Kruger. 1 double-digit goal season in 4. Inconsistent results thus far, somewhat disappointing given his "next Lidstrom" draft hype. Stellar 2nd half of 21/22 needs to be repeated.

Presumably Dahlin will be extended next summer, that contract commencing in 24/25 when he will be 24.

If he regresses ... let's not think too much about that, but 8x10 is out of the question.
If he plateaus - somewhere between Serg and Werenski.
If he takes that next step we all want/expect, i.e. Norris contender - 8x10+, unless Adams can get a team discount from a player who "wants to be here".

Bottom line - he hasn't demonstrated the consistently high level of play that would merit 8x10. Show me, Rasmus.

First I have to make a correction. I made a mistake including the Jones contract. It was a 6yr second contract not a bridge and removes him as a comparable. I’m going to edit my previous post.

That leaves McAvoy, Werenski and Sergachev as the relevant comparables.

McAvoy/Werenski got their deals because they were viewed as the top pairing #1 dmen for their teams going forward. Unless Dahlin regresses, he will be viewed in the same light for us and will line up contractually with those two. From the contract pov the comparison doesn’t really get deeper.

Add Dahlin signing his deal 2 to 3 years after they did and we get the 8x10. Thats a conservative 500K jump in AAV from the Werenski/McAvoy deals. There will be upward pressure on top contracts year over year.

I‘m somewhat baffled as to why you are fighting this so hard. Its a pretty straight forward path to that deal. Its not a given since he may regress OR they may not go to 8yrs. Maybe 5yrs or so to keep the AAV down. But 8x10 is a pretty realistic expectation.

 

[joshjull]

Fox's contract was 11.66% of cap. At $83.5M, it would still be less than 10M AAV/season.

Fox’s 7 year contract had 4 RFA years in it. Dahlin’s will have one. Apples to oranges.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

First I have to make a correction. I made a mistake including the Jones contract. It was a 6yr second contract not a bridge and removes him as a comparable. I’m going to edit my previous post.

That leaves McAvoy, Werenski and Sergachev as the relevant comparables.

McAvoy/Werenski got their deals because they were viewed as the top pairing #1 dmen for their teams going forward. Unless Dahlin regresses, he will be viewed in the same light for us and will line up contractually with those two. From the contract pov the comparison doesn’t really get deeper.

Add Dahlin signing his deal 2 to 3 years after they did and we get the 8x10. Thats a conservative 500K jump in AAV from the Werenski/McAvoy deals. There will be upward pressure on top contracts year over year.

I‘m somewhat baffled as to why you are fighting this so hard. Its a pretty straight forward path to that deal. Its not a given since he may regress OR they may not go to 8yrs. Maybe 5yrs or so to keep the AAV down. But 8x10 is a pretty realistic expectation.

Let's not be giddy about Dahlin's excellent last half of 21/22. I'd like to see him repeat that, or better yet improve upon it, before opening the vault. Imho he hasn't proven himself to be in that Werenski-McAvoy tier yet.

No matter how you rationalize it, an 8x10 contract would make him the best paid d-man in the league under 32. Isn't it reasonable to expect him to have played like it for at least one season?

I've had my say. I'll just add that I want Dahlin to excel as much as anyone here.

 

[Chainshot]

Fox’s 7 year contract had 4 RFA years in it. Dahlin’s will have one. Apples to oranges.

Not entirely. RFA vs. UFA years is a factor. So too is the productivity of the player. There is a substantial argument to be made that guys like Fox and Makar are well above the level of compensation Dahlin should be paid based on cap percentage. Using McAvoy as a comp - age when he signed vs. when Dahlin will be done with his current deal (they both did 3 year ELC, 3 year bridge), then look at his overall level of play and again it is someone who has been better than Dahlin thus far. If Rasmus is able to start tilting the ice in his team's favor to the degree McAvoy can, then lets start thinking about paying him as much.

I can't help but think this conversation has shades of the Eichel deal and I don't get the urge to pay him more than comps who have been better players thus far in their careers.

 

[debaser66]

Corey Pronman's NHL Pipeline Rankings: No. 1 Buffalo Sabres' future looks bright

Ranking the top prospects and under-23 players in the organization. Plus, what to expect of every player.

theathletic.com

Guess he hasn't watched Dahlin play and just checked the stats.
He doesnt hit often but he is very feisty and gritty and hits hard when he does.

 

[joshjull]

Let's not be giddy about Dahlin's excellent last half of 21/22. I'd like to see him repeat that, or better yet improve upon it, before opening the vault. Imho he hasn't proven himself to be in that Werenski-McAvoy tier yet.

No matter how you rationalize it, an 8x10 contract would make him the best paid d-man in the league under 32. Isn't it reasonable to expect him to have played like it for at least one season?

I've had my say. I'll just add that I want Dahlin to excel as much as anyone here.

Its not a matter of rationalizing anything. Its about understanding all of the elements that drive the market. I mean there is a clear example of what I’m talking about with Jones/Nurse having bigger cap hits than Makar. Its certainly not because they as good as Makar, let alone better than him. Its because their deals are all UFA years.

I also haven’t said he earned a 8x10 deal or that its a given he‘ll get it. I’m saying the path to that contract isn’t hard to see. He would need to continue his play from the 2nd half of last year through this season.

Its kind of bizarre how triggered you get over that 8x10 deal.


PS:I love how you add the qualifier of dmen under 32 to exclude the two highest cap hit dmen (Karlsson 11.5mi/Doughty 11mil). Since 10mil per wouldn’t make Dahlin the highest paid dman.