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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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The problem today has really just been the lack of a big hit. We're getting chances but the Cubs bullpen is slamming the door every time.

Somewhat fitting that the big free agent signing is the difference in this one.
 
Frustrating game -- Robertson barely threw a strike in the 9th, but Tsutsugo and Castillo were turned inside out. Not the last time it's gonna happen. At least Quintana turned in a solid performance.

Davis with an early jack for Greensboro, who are actually on TV this week as they are on the road.
 
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Cruz triple and double tonight. Free that man.

Rodolfo Castro (2 for 2 tonight) is a guy I still am high on. Of course he made literal baseball history by homering for his first 5 hits and then cooled off considerably directly after. People are glossing over the fact he's only 22 and basically jumped from AA to the MLB ranks last summer. He flashed and then largely struggled at the dish after. Happens to many gamers, especially at that age.

Back in AA getting a reset. No sense in rushing him. Give him the first few months in AA/AAA and if he dominates there you can bring him up post AS break. I liked what I saw from his bat, even during the struggles at times. Solid glove. Solid runner.

He gives me a J-Hay vibe. He can play across the diamond for you. The bat has potential. If he can show a little more patience, I think he's got a place on a winner 2-3 years down the line, certainly as a 4th OF/IF plug and play. Hopefully he gives you what you thought Tucker would.

Mitchell had a great spring and is not slowing down early in AAA. Another potential #4 OF/DH. Same thing goes for Bae. He can play IF/OF and is off to a great start. Another one who quietly had an above average campaign in Altoona last year.

I don't think we're talking about a better than average starters or anything here, but they're solid options to keep an eye on. Players that look like depth contributors on a winning ballclub.
 
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I really want to keep an eye on Swaggerty and see how he does this year. From what Fangraphs said about him, he's adding game power away from being a good everyday player. The speed and defense is there, him being a Hayes type of hitter (not a ton of homers but a lot of doubles and a solid average) would be a terrific LFer for the Pirates.

I know Swaggerty brings up some debates among Pirates fans, but he is one of their most intriguing prospects to me personally just because of their need for OFers long-term and how his defense would play in LF at PNC.
 
I agree, in general there is a decent bit riding on Cruz just because the impact potential is so huge with him, and then there are some questions about pitching -- for example, both Jones and Burrows are nasty, but will they emerge as more than 3-4IP guys? Jones' stuff is really terrific, and I'm excited to get a look at Burrows, though Altoona is a terrible watch from a camera angles perspective.

But overall there a fair number of guys who could profile as everyday types, or guys that can play a role on a winner. I like both Smith-Njigba and Mitchell, and agree on Castro. I think it's worth being patient with Castro until he shows something with the plate discipline, but even last year, I think it's more of an aggression that helps his game. He'll have issues with MLB pitching, but it's part of the package.

I've mostly watched Indy so far, other than Greensboro tonight. I've been sort of out on Martin, but he's also pretty young, and I think in general, it's not a good idea to have too strong of opinions on guys until they break through to the MLB level and then some. What to watch with him are obviously the K and BB rates. He's having a good game tonight, we'll see if he can get some momentum. In some ways it would be a decent outcome if he could come up after the deadline for a couple month baptism by fire vs MLB pitching, though I bet it would be ugly.

Two things I wonder:
1) What's the plan with Davis / three catchers at the High A level? I am guessing it's partly a defensive thing with Davis, since he's basically been the guy behind the plate for the most part. I bet the bat could play in AA, and once Priester is healthy, it would seem to make some sense to have Davis with him, Burrows, and Nicolas.
2) How far are we going to take it with Cruz? It is patently obvious when watching him that he should be facing MLB pitching. We're shooting for the extra year, obviously, but I think the more cynical goal of avoiding Super Two would start to encroach on his actual development this year, since he isn't really being challenged by AAA pitching. In his ABs, he's not getting a ton to work with and he's not at all overmatched or pressing -- I've seen him have one bad AB all year.

I hate to give any credence to our manipulation, but probably what you "want" is up in two or three weeks, and then 5 months or so of facing MLB pitching, taking lumps and not ending up in the position to negate the manipulation. I just think the talent is so obvious that even if he has difficult stretches, 5 months is enough time to really be a favorite to win ROY, and if not win it, then be right there for 2nd place. I do get that the pick might not be overwhelmingly appealing (though I would say that having the extra 1.5-2M in the budget creates more opportunity to underslot + reallocate on a faller, for example), but it's hard not to think we dropped the ball with the demotion instead of just trying to extend him right after Cruz while he's breaking into the league. Maybe we'll be surprised and that's in the works, who knows.
 
Nutting is feeling the heat from the media. All he is doing is paying lip service to the fans to calm the flames. When the time comes the exact same thing will be mandated from ownership.
 
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Empoleon8771 said:
I really want to keep an eye on Swaggerty and see how he does this year. From what Fangraphs said about him, he's adding game power away from being a good everyday player. The speed and defense is there, him being a Hayes type of hitter (not a ton of homers but a lot of doubles and a solid average) would be a terrific LFer for the Pirates.

I know Swaggerty brings up some debates among Pirates fans, but he is one of their most intriguing prospects to me personally just because of their need for OFers long-term and how his defense would play in LF at PNC.
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I like him quite a bit -- I think tonight is his first time in the field all season. He's looked pretty solid at the plate so far to me. The strikeouts are a touch high for the too-small-to-say anyways sample size, but he's making good contact and overall it's a nice start given that he's returning from injury and really didn't get much game action at all in the spring.

I think it makes sense to be cautious with him. He's had a really unique path and so age-to-level should just be thrown out the window with him. Even if he doesn't do more than get a cup of coffee in September, if he has a healthy season and produces solidly in AAA, it will be a big step forward. There's no reason to go overboard by protecting him, but I think it makes a lot of sense to really let him get his feet under him and spend 2 or 3 months in AAA, hopefully staying healthy above all else.
 
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DJ Spinoza said:
I like him quite a bit -- I think tonight is his first time in the field all season. He's looked pretty solid at the plate so far to me. The strikeouts are a touch high for the too-small-to-say anyways sample size, but he's making good contact and overall it's a nice start given that he's returning from injury and really didn't get much game action at all in the spring.

I think it makes sense to be cautious with him. He's had a really unique path and so age-to-level should just be thrown out the window with him. Even if he doesn't do more than get a cup of coffee in September, if he has a healthy season and produces solidly in AAA, it will be a big step forward. There's no reason to go overboard by protecting him, but I think it makes a lot of sense to really let him get his feet under him and spend 2 or 3 months in AAA, hopefully staying healthy above all else.
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Yeah there is really no need to call him up anytime soon, I don't think he brings anything to the table that say Marisnick doesn't bring to the table. I'd keep him in AAA until the deadline and not think about calling him up after you trade Marisnick at the deadline. And even then, his play would have to warrant it.

Call him up later in the year once you don't have all of Alford, Gamel, Marisnick and Allen on the MLB roster.
 
JTG said:
Nutting is feeling the heat from the media. All he is doing is paying lip service to the fans to calm the flames. When the time comes the exact same thing will be mandated from ownership.
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In the end, it's the league's fault for allowing this economic system to move forward for at least another 5 years.
 
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Yeah, it should be easy enough to churn through those kinds of guys and open up a spot if the time is right. I'm not in love with the Marisnik signing but with Allen out for a huge amount of time, it makes sense to have a very competent defender in the mix, even as I understand people being impatient with Tucker.

Last year, he got off to a very hot start and looked solid at the plate, so if he can get back on track, that will be great, but in the end we're talking about a guy who had the pandemic and then an injury basically wipe out multiple full seasons + basically any experience above low A.

One thing that's kind of interesting with him is that his value to the Pirates will probably in in LF and CF, and you have to figure Reynolds has CF locked down. Cruz is also being used in LF, and logically that makes the most sense since he's a great athlete, though he does have the arm for RF too. I'm pretty much against the OF experiment with Cruz, but I guess if he can play the corners sometimes for the sake of versatility, it isn't the end of the world. But when his time comes, he should be the everyday SS, and I'm also thinking that it will make sense to have Swaggerty in LF if and when he does get a taste of MLB this year.

In general, I like the OF prospects in AAA, and if one can become a good everyday player, that's a W. Swaggerty seems to have a good floor given his carrying tools, and I think the other guys have potential to at least get a crack and be up and down players. It's nice that the AAA level is actually more exciting this year, other than the pitching basically (and even then they have Bolton).
 
USS FJB said:
He looks smooth running, not like Polanco who resembled a new born gazelle.

Any idea when they bring him up, are they waiting for June?
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My hope is 2nd week of May. They've got a 7 game homestretch starting on May 9th vs LAD. That's a Monday. 3 game set w/them and then 4 vs Cincy. Quick 3 games in Chicago, day off and then another home stretch starting on a Saturday, May 20th vs STL.

So May 20th is my guess. Home game, after a day off, on a Friday night vs a "rival". I think it's far enough back in May to avoid the dreaded super 2, and short of the player going nuclear (which Cruz could do) removes a large chunk of games in terms of ROTY.

If they're playing it extra safe, June 17th vs SF.
 
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I've seen some people comment that there is actually 2 deadlines to call up Cruz, one dealing with the super two and one dealing with an "extra year of control". What is that other deadline? I thought the super-two deadline was the only deadline that teams worked towards for young players, I didn't know there was also a deadline that would cause a player to have one year of control less.

I thought all players had 6 years of control, and whether it was 2 pre-arb and 4 arb years or 3 pre-arb and 3 arb years was completely dependent on whether Cruz was called up before the super-two deadline.

Oh wait, I may have assumed those two deadlines were the same. One deadline is making sure you get a "free" year of service, meaning he won't get in enough days to become free agent eligible a year earlier, but the other deadline is making sure he doesn't hit super-two eligibility. So you could call up Cruz late enough where you get that "free" year of service but he still has 4 arbitration years, which is what it seems like was the case with Reynolds.
 
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From what I can tell, the day the Pirates can call up Cruz is either April 22nd or later to get the extra year of service (16 days after opening day) or June 16th if they want to wait until after the super two deadline (2.116 years of service). I'm not positive on that super-two deadline, it seems like that is something that will be determined in about 2 years for Cruz. But that's the number for this year and 2.116 seems to be on the lower end for super-two eligibility.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
From what I can tell, the day the Pirates can call up Cruz is either April 22nd or later to get the extra year of service (16 days after opening day) or June 16th if they want to wait until after the super two deadline (2.116 years of service). I'm not positive on that super-two deadline, it seems like that is something that will be determined in about 2 years for Cruz. But that's the number for this year and 2.116 seems to be on the lower end for super-two eligibility.
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Super-2 moves around a bit. The deadline's almost always in June, and determined by the service time of the rookies this year. I believe they will know sometime next year on the exact date.
 
Gallatin said:
Super-2 moves around a bit. The deadline's almost always in June, and determined by the service time of the rookies this year. I believe they will know sometime next year on the exact date.
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Yeah Reynolds got called up to early and fell under the super 2
 
Yeah, I think the wrench is the new rule about a player finishing top-2 for ROY and being awarded a full year of service. Unless I have misunderstood technicalities, if that happens, it would negate the extra year of service bought by keeping him down. So even if we are fine with Cruz becoming super two, i.e., calling him up anytime in May basically, there's still this "question" for them to consider.

It's hard to game out who his competition actually will be, but just a handful of games in, Seiya Suzuki looks like he has a strong chance to be in that mix. Other possibilities who are currently up with MLB teams are Hunter Greene, Joey Bart, CJ Abrams, and Bryson Stott.

Personally, I think Cruz will be a viable candidate against any of these names if he is called up in the next few weeks or in May, and I don't think it's out of the question that he could insert himself even if he isn't called up until mid-June. He's an exciting player on a team that doesn't have much else going for it. It's very possible that he would have enough ups and downs to negate that energy relative to full seasons from Suzuki and Green or something, but it's also possible that we bite the bullet, call him up in mid-May, and he hits the hardest ball recorded all season that weekend.

As much as I hate to say this because I think not letting him have the opportunity to really make the team in the spring was a huge mistake, they might as well follow out the path that they've committed to and keep him down until he clears super two.

One thing that bugs me in all of this, however, is that the whole thing becomes an arbitrary exercise if we have some intention of signing Cruz long-term. If we wait until super two passes, then he doesn't hit arbitration until 2026. But even if we called him up in early May based on obvious merit (assuming he continues to look like he'll force the issue), then he could win ROY and still be on track to hit free agency in 2028, but you could offer him a contract similar to Hayes' and buy out two years of his free agency while generating cost certainty for yourself.

And even if he didn't come up until super two and wasn't able to finish top-2 in ROY voting, you could still sign him to a contract this offseason to similar effect. The focus should be on the player and what's best for him, and here the major problem is that we're unwilling to move on from Newman. I think the goal is to try and triangulate experience, minor league ABs, and playing time possibilities in order to wait until June.
 
In other news, Shelton has benched Castillo again. It seems like they are at best treating the early season as extended competition for a lot of jobs, but the problem is obviously that Castillo earned his shot at a job in spring training, and then has done nothing but continue to perform in the chances he's being given, and oh also the lineup is pretty bad even when he's in it.

I doubt things could derail bad enough that Shelton is fired mid-season, since we're tanking, but it's really hard to see this kind of little league rotation stuff and think that it's really a "player-centric" culture.
 
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