OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[DJ Spinoza]

Really encouraging start from Oviedo last night, though against a poor lineup obviously. I'm still on the fence because I think his stuff would play really well in a leverage role in the bullpen, even if his command isn't sharp, but last night was a glimpse of what he could be with stronger command than we had seen until then. I think on the whole he's probably pitched himself into the competition for a rotation job out of the spring, and that what Brown and Walk briefly said on the broadcast last night about there needing to be competition for jobs is a good point.

Keller and Brubaker have earned my confidence starting out next year, and then there's obviously Roansy (though perhaps with more of a 140 IP expectation than 160-170), and Ortiz has made quite the case that he should have a shot to earn a job in the spring, though I'd be surprised if we really gave it to him. Despite any optimism I would want to conjure up on the whole, there's still injury, depth, and performance risk all over the place.

Personally, I'd still prefer to target Quintana this offseason, though I think him continuing to perform well for St. Louis might price him out of what we'll do. He works so perfectly because he'd be the veteran presence, able to stabilize things and give you quantity over the duration of his contract. Even if he fades more into a #4 or #5 guy in terms of results, he's exactly what we need. I think his performance this year might price him into a #3 range, though given age it's hard to say -- I'm not exactly sure if he's the kind of guy the Dodgers or similar sign for a bigger 1-2 year deal. Maybe 3 years at a solid price (15M per) is competitive for him.

Otherwise, despite not really liking rooting for Bae, he looks pretty competent and the speed is a real impact on the game. I would kind of like to see him revert back to that number 9 spot, if only because I think you need to stick Cruz back at the top and 9th would seem to utilize Bae's speed best. I have a feeling Shelton might roll with Bae, Reynolds, Castro, Cruz, Chavis/Gamel for a number of games, and while that's not as bad as hitting Cruz lower and it would be good to max Bae ABs, I really think you should just max Cruz's ABs and consider him on the inside track for that spot next year. If someone can force their way to a leadoff spot and Cruz bats second, that's fine, but I think it's time to just treat Cruz like Acuna and hope that the chase rate will continue to stay at a good level which boosts everything else.

Haven't seen an update but sounds like Endy came out of the game last night with some kind of minor injury. Might be just enough to rule out any kind of 4-5 game debut, but I guess if it was just a cramp or something along those lines, he could be fine.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

IF and obviously big IF either Oviedo or Ortiz is for real, im a lot more confident going into next year.

Keller and Brubaker have solidified themselves as mlb pitchers, back end guys but solid 4-5s.

Roasny is looking good and living up to his prospect status.

Ortiz and Oviedo have looked great recently if even one is legit we are looking good to start next year. With priester, burrows and bolton just a step away for additional options.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah I think their starting rotation is looking quite promising for next year. I think they really just need one veteran #2/3 guy to anchor the rotation and the rotation should be set for a good while. Bringing back Quintana would be amazing, but I imagine he'll be getting huge offers this off-season.

This off-season should have plenty of that caliber of pitcher available. Getting someone like Quintana or Taijuan Walker would be a pretty nice signing.

 

[cookthebooks]

am i naive in thinking a solidified cast of starters trickles down to the bullpen?

 

[Josey Wales]

Yeah I think their starting rotation is looking quite promising for next year. I think they really just need one veteran #2/3 guy to anchor the rotation and the rotation should be set for a good while. Bringing back Quintana would be amazing, but I imagine he'll be getting huge offers this off-season.

This off-season should have plenty of that caliber of pitcher available. Getting someone like Quintana or Taijuan Walker would be a pretty nice signing.

No Quintana will not get "HUGE" offers

 

[DJ Spinoza]

am i naive in thinking a solidified cast of starters trickles down to the bullpen?

It should -- they need better personnel in some cases, but without even looking up any numbers, there's no question in my mind that a lot of the issues come from a completely overtaxed group. That starts with pitching, and if you have 5 starters who you can basically count on for 5-6 innings every time, with at least a handful being more like 6 IP and occasionally 7 IP guys, then the quantity of innings that the bullpen has to cover will go down significantly.

We've gone for long periods of time where that was never the case, and it takes a toll on the pen. I think Keller and Brubaker can be counted on for 6IP, occasionally more, and Roansy will be up and down a little depending on how sharp his stuff is. Ortiz seems like a standout in this sense, even if ST manipulation gets in the way of him starting with the team.

I think a RH bat should be the biggest priority other than Cruz and Reynolds extensions, followed closely by a three year Quintana reunion. I'm anticipating something more like a wait and see approach, as usual, scooping up veterans for cheap late. I don't think this will be defensible, but if at least Reynolds is extended and ideally Cruz or a surprise like Endy, then it will at least be more palatable. My main attitude towards the upcoming offseason is that if Reynolds isn't extended, then BC's really been operating without much of a plan or vision beyond accumulating talent.

 

[Gallatin]

IF and obviously big IF either Oviedo or Ortiz is for real, im a lot more confident going into next year.

Keller and Brubaker have solidified themselves as mlb pitchers, back end guys but solid 4-5s.

Roasny is looking good and living up to his prospect status.

Ortiz and Oviedo have looked great recently if even one is legit we are looking good to start next year. With priester, burrows and bolton just a step away for additional options.

Expressed here in 2020 the Minor League staff had too many high upside arms down low to not see an Ortiz, or 3 develop under BC. Expect a couple more to break out next season.

I'm content with our staff taking shape next year around Keller, Contrares, Ortiz, Priester, Burrows, Oviedo, Brubaker, Thompson, and possibly Jones. Still want an FA Lefty starter like we picked up the last 2 seasons though.

I'm also feeling it with the bullpen if they can add a late inning Lefty and stay relatively healthy.

I'm fairly certain now Cruz will be a difference maker - loving the increased patience. Castro is carving out a valuable role - and has still more upside to reach for. Reynolds should have an "up" year - maybe even compete for MVP again. One of Suwinski, Mitchell, Swaggs, or Bae will break out in the OF.

Hard to imagine we don't see Endy starting behind the plate in the 2nd half. And a lot of other guys are close to breaking out IMO.

I'm loving the idea of adding a strong defensive catcher, and a +War 1B in the off-season. Most importantly - we need an outspoken leader IMO, and Latin American if possible.

I'm still thinking we are approaching "quick turnaround" territory, especially if they effectively invest 20-30 mil in the off-season.

It's always darkest before the dawn folks. I'm crushed for time lately, so feel free to savagely assault the optimism as I probably won't be around again for a few days to counter.

 

[Gallatin]

Yeah I think their starting rotation is looking quite promising for next year. I think they really just need one veteran #2/3 guy to anchor the rotation and the rotation should be set for a good while. Bringing back Quintana would be amazing, but I imagine he'll be getting huge offers this off-season.

This off-season should have plenty of that caliber of pitcher available. Getting someone like Quintana or Taijuan Walker would be a pretty nice signing.

Honestly - I'm more interested in a Leader being brought in. Could care less if he's a #2 or a #4.

 

[MrBrightside]

The fact so many people have decided that Ortiz and Oviedo are solid rotation pieces for the future based on 3 or so starts is adorable. Amazing the optimism that comes the day after they win their first game in 10 days. But hey, If Ortiz goes from getting bombed in A and AA and instantly becomes a rotation piece, I’ll certainly stand corrected.

 

[ChaosAgent]

The fact so many people have decided that Ortiz and Oviedo are solid rotation pieces for the future based on 3 or so starts is adorable. Amazing the optimism that comes the day after they win their first game in 10 days. But hey, If Ortiz goes from getting bombed in A and AA and instantly becomes a rotation piece, I’ll certainly stand corrected.

Optimism is nicer than pessimism.

Unfortunately, it is not the correct position for this franchise.

I learned that the hard way expecting 68-70 wins and progress from 2021, but getting 58 wins, a second half collapse and a cavalcade of embarrassments. This org sucks.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The fact so many people have decided that Ortiz and Oviedo are solid rotation pieces for the future based on 3 or so starts is adorable. Amazing the optimism that comes the day after they win their first game in 10 days. But hey, If Ortiz goes from getting bombed in A and AA and instantly becomes a rotation piece, I’ll certainly stand corrected.

Ortiz and Oviedo are nowhere near the same kind of profile. In what sense are you saying that Ortiz was "bombed" in A and AA? Have you watched him at all, even in his Pittsburgh starts?

The pitches are what should be looked at when talking about a player like Ortiz. The fastball flirts with being unhittable when he's on -- we do not have a similar fastball in the system and have not seen one since Cole. The slider is easy plus, and the changeup has flashed plus.

I can understand wanting to take a cautious approach, but that's quite an interesting, I'm assume box-score driven taken on Ortiz. And it's especially interesting since as far as I'm aware, he did not pitch in A this year. He skipped High A entirely. But I don't think any of this is really necessary when watching him pitch at the MLB level.

Oviedo is a depth arm who was acquired for a change of scenery shot in the dark, and may well end up in the Wilson or Thompson bucket next year. Ortiz is flashing easy #2 starter profile after rocketing through the playoffs. There is every reason to be excited about players like him and Endy Rodriguez. I mean, Jesus Christ, we're talking about a guy who can locate 99-100mph on the edge of the zone in the 6th inning.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Personally, I'm bullish on Ortiz.

I'm not bullish on this core adding 35 (!) wins just through improvement and adding Endy, Priester and Henry Davis. And that is ultimately the task at hand.

Need a lot, a lot of external help and a lot of good breaks.

 

[Josey Wales]

Kody Duncan
@KodyDuncanPGH
·
52s
Pirates announce they have claimed Miguel Andujar off waivers.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The flier on Andujar makes a lot of sense. I think he's still a player who could pop a little bit with the chance at regular playing time. With that said, I'd like to look at it more in terms of a depth chart competition between him and someone like Chavis, but I think there's something in the bat and he's actually not a bad defender at a few spots.

 

[Mr Jeff Jimerson]

Kody Duncan
@KodyDuncanPGH
·
52s
Pirates announce they have claimed Miguel Andujar off waivers.

 

[MrBrightside]

Ortiz and Oviedo are nowhere near the same kind of profile. In what sense are you saying that Ortiz was "bombed" in A and AA? Have you watched him at all, even in his Pittsburgh starts?

The pitches are what should be looked at when talking about a player like Ortiz. The fastball flirts with being unhittable when he's on -- we do not have a similar fastball in the system and have not seen one since Cole. The slider is easy plus, and the changeup has flashed plus.

I can understand wanting to take a cautious approach, but that's quite an interesting, I'm assume box-score driven taken on Ortiz. And it's especially interesting since as far as I'm aware, he did not pitch in A this year. He skipped High A entirely. But I don't think any of this is really necessary when watching him pitch at the MLB level.

Oviedo is a depth arm who was acquired for a change of scenery shot in the dark, and may well end up in the Wilson or Thompson bucket next year. Ortiz is flashing easy #2 starter profile after rocketing through the playoffs. There is every reason to be excited about players like him and Endy Rodriguez. I mean, Jesus Christ, we're talking about a guy who can locate 99-100mph on the edge of the zone in the 6th inning.

I recognize prospect rankings are just the opinions of certain people, but acting like Ortiz is some sure thing after 15 major league innings is what is "I mean, Jesus Christ" worthy. He's the 30th ranked prospect on MLB Pipeline. He's not in the top 20 on Baseball America (I'm not a subscriber so I don't know exactly where he is ranked). Tim Williams has him 28th. FanGraphs has him 23rd. He had an ERA near 5.00 in the minors this year. Yet after 15 innings it's JESUS CHRIST HE'S A NUMBER TWO STARTER AND YOU'RE DUMB IF YOU DON'T AGREE. Ok.

Hey, I hope he's Jake DeGrom. Really and truly. I'll come eat all the crow in the world if he is. The rush to anoint every player who gets off to a good start as a proven major leaguer (and the rush many had to rip Cruz when he struggled early) is understandable but not cogent analysis.

 

[MrBrightside]

Personally, I'm bullish on Ortiz.

I'm not bullish on this core adding 35 (!) wins just through improvement and adding Endy, Priester and Henry Davis. And that is ultimately the task at hand.

Need a lot, a lot of external help and a lot of good breaks.

We have some pieces, sure. I'm excited about Cruz, Ortiz and Contreras have some nice upside, and there are a few guys coming that you mention, but it's not like this team has been on the upswing or is close. They are 18-47 since July 12 - that's a 44-118 pace for the last 2 1/2 months. They have the worst run differential in baseball by a solid margin, and are 28th in runs, 29th in OPS, and 27th in ERA. If they truly turn the corner next year and become competitive, it would be pretty much unprecedented in the history of baseball to go from this to that.

 

[Josey Wales]

I recognize prospect rankings are just the opinions of certain people, but acting like Ortiz is some sure thing after 15 major league innings is what is "I mean, Jesus Christ" worthy. He's the 30th ranked prospect on MLB Pipeline. He's not in the top 20 on Baseball America (I'm not a subscriber so I don't know exactly where he is ranked). Tim Williams has him 28th. FanGraphs has him 23rd. He had an ERA near 5.00 in the minors this year. Yet after 15 innings it's JESUS CHRIST HE'S A NUMBER TWO STARTER AND YOU'RE DUMB IF YOU DON'T AGREE. Ok.

Hey, I hope he's Jake DeGrom. Really and truly. I'll come eat all the crow in the world if he is. The rush to anoint every player who gets off to a good start as a proven major leaguer (and the rush many had to rip Cruz when he struggled early) is understandable but not cogent analysis.

Sounds like you need a Snickers

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I recognize prospect rankings are just the opinions of certain people, but acting like Ortiz is some sure thing after 15 major league innings is what is "I mean, Jesus Christ" worthy. He's the 30th ranked prospect on MLB Pipeline. He's not in the top 20 on Baseball America (I'm not a subscriber so I don't know exactly where he is ranked). Tim Williams has him 28th. FanGraphs has him 23rd. He had an ERA near 5.00 in the minors this year. Yet after 15 innings it's JESUS CHRIST HE'S A NUMBER TWO STARTER AND YOU'RE DUMB IF YOU DON'T AGREE. Ok.

Hey, I hope he's Jake DeGrom. Really and truly. I'll come eat all the crow in the world if he is. The rush to anoint every player who gets off to a good start as a proven major leaguer (and the rush many had to rip Cruz when he struggled early) is understandable but not cogent analysis.

Very well and good, but I think you are projecting with a lot of this and to the best of my charitable ability, I think you haven't watched Ortiz pitch. The prospect rankings are not only just the perspectives of different people; they are in most cases old information that hasn't been updated to reflect more recent performance.

It seems to me that the tenor of any conversation about a rookie who has pitched 15 innings is that, "this is a very strong start and the player needs to keep it up." That's a truism for any rookie and something that people explicitly said up thread. As far as I have read things, I don't see anyone anointing him as a surefire anything, but if you would rather rely on a casual (and still incorrect regarding playing in A ball) glance at a minor league statline in order to preserve cautious pessimism, have at it. In the same way that I don't see how watching Endy Rodriguez perform at a high level would have anyone worried, I don't see how watching Ortiz pitch over his MLB innings would have anyone anything but tremendously excited for his potential impact on a future rotation.

His questions probably center around command/walks and the ability to use a third pitch or do something else once there is more of an established book on him. The weapons that he does have are overpowering -- to take one more recent assessment which also has its own downsides, Eno Sarris' pitching plus model currently grades him as having the best pure stuff in the league. This would/will surely be mitigated some by adding volume, but it's the same kind of way that Spencer Strider popped as a pitcher with outrageously good stuff earlier in the year.

 

[MrBrightside]

Very well and good, but I think you are projecting with a lot of this and to the best of my charitable ability, I think you haven't watched Ortiz pitch. The prospect rankings are not only just the perspectives of different people; they are in most cases old information that hasn't been updated to reflect more recent performance.

It seems to me that the tenor of any conversation about a rookie who has pitched 15 innings is that, "this is a very strong start and the player needs to keep it up." That's a truism for any rookie and something that people explicitly said up thread. As far as I have read things, I don't see anyone anointing him as a surefire anything, but if you would rather rely on a casual (and still incorrect regarding playing in A ball) glance at a minor league statline in order to preserve cautious pessimism, have at it. In the same way that I don't see how watching Endy Rodriguez perform at a high level would have anyone worried, I don't see how watching Ortiz pitch over his MLB innings would have anyone anything but tremendously excited for his potential impact on a future rotation.

His questions probably center around command/walks and the ability to use a third pitch or do something else once there is more of an established book on him. The weapons that he does have are overpowering -- to take one more recent assessment which also has its own downsides, Eno Sarris' pitching plus model currently grades him as having the best pure stuff in the league. This would/will surely be mitigated some by adding volume, but it's the same kind of way that Spencer Strider popped as a pitcher with outrageously good stuff earlier in the year.

I'll be the first to admit that I don't watch much minor league baseball. I barely have time in my life to watch major league baseball, let alone minor league baseball, and I don't pretend to have the in-depth knowledge of prospects that some on this board possess. And yes, Ortiz has been damned impressive in his 3 major league appearances thus far, something certainly preferable to not being impressive.

My skepticism is several fold, however, and part of it is probably from years of being disappointed by "can't miss" prospects in this organization. While it does happen, it doesn't happen often that guys go from being consensus 20-30th in the system to being top of the rotation major league starters, and I'd really want to know more why the experts all rated him at a level of a prospect that you get in August for a middle reliever than they do a guy who has the "best pure stuff in the league." Yes, I still think the sample size matters a lot, and while you want to just dismiss his minor league stats (and keep getting hung up on my misstatement about him pitching some in A ball this year when that's irrelevant to the point), I would like to know why he's posting an ERA near 5.00 in Altoona before deciding he's a future TOR fixture.

 

[MrBrightside]

 

[cookthebooks]

truly is amazing that after all these years andujar is a bucco for nothing

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'll be the first to admit that I don't watch much minor league baseball. I barely have time in my life to watch major league baseball, let alone minor league baseball, and I don't pretend to have the in-depth knowledge of prospects that some on this board possess. And yes, Ortiz has been damned impressive in his 3 major league appearances thus far, something certainly preferable to not being impressive.

My skepticism is several fold, however, and part of it is probably from years of being disappointed by "can't miss" prospects in this organization. While it does happen, it doesn't happen often that guys go from being consensus 20-30th in the system to being top of the rotation major league starters, and I'd really want to know more why the experts all rated him at a level of a prospect that you get in August for a middle reliever than they do a guy who has the "best pure stuff in the league." Yes, I still think the sample size matters a lot, and while you want to just dismiss his minor league stats (and keep getting hung up on my misstatement about him pitching some in A ball this year when that's irrelevant to the point), I would like to know why he's posting an ERA near 5.00 in Altoona before deciding he's a future TOR fixture.

I think the answer to your questions is pretty straightforward if you stop getting hung up on inflating a 4.56 ERA to "nearly 5" and take a look at the actual scouting reports themselves, game logs, and most importantly, the grades on Ortiz's pitches.

Along a developmental path which has seem him rocket through the minor leagues, Ortiz has been a consistent strikeout pitcher all season. He's also been touch and go with walks, which in tandem with a general minor league strategy that has seen teams be more conservative about minor league innings pitched (at least for prospects), has led to shorter starts for some of the year.

But you can also pretty clearly see the story of a season in the game logs. There's a step forward around mid/late-May to be more of a 5 and 6 inning guy every time out. This carries into June with some success, but also some weak or mediocre starts and a HR problem that is still there in July, which is essentially a step sideways as a month. One fine start, one good but short start, but mostly more of the same.

There's a clear and obvious progression forward in August, where he has a 2.89 ERA, which is then capped off with a quick pit stop in AAA and the three good starts in MLB, on a pretty clear pitch count.

I'm not sure why minor league ERA is a point of fixation, but we're not going to see a pristine ERA when you have a number of 3-4 inning appearances and are giving up runs throughout. It's pretty clear that on balance, this was a big developmental year for Ortiz in which he got more comfortable as the season went on and has been able to finish on a very high note.

The profile will continue to raise some questions, which is still also true for Roansy, even if Roansy has more of a track record now. It's also probably likely that at least one of them won't live up to the billing of a rotation anchor, and that's not even considering injury questions, etc. Ortiz will need to both keep hitters off balance and guessing while also keeping the walks to an acceptable level and not falling into a HR problem. From what we have seen in the early going, this is a pitcher who is anchoring things for you if he is able to extend all the way to a normal 90+ pitches starter load, but it remains to be seen whether he'll do that over an extended period of time once we get to 2023 (and after the Pirates keep him down in Indy for service reasons).

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm into the particularity of this reclamation attempt, even though Andujar's stock (such as it was) has definitely fallen quite significantly. It still just seems like Yankees prospects and up/down guys can really benefit from being removed from that volatility, and so going to a place where he'll get a set opportunity for once might be just what he needs.

That said, two worries: 1) that hasn't meant much of anything for Clint Frazier, and 2) this move is worrying if it's not just generic roster shuffling and is more in the genre of a pre-offseason "upgrade" type of move.

The direction ultimately has to be pushing these kinds of fringe players off the roster, and I don't need to rehearse the fact that Cherington's track record in this regard is pretty poor. However, I do think it's a decent sign that it's Chavis (as well as Allen) who is DFA'd here. Chavis has put up some decent stretches, but he's still no better than average in a platoon role, and so it makes sense to turn the page or at least not have him firmly anchored to one of your roster spots.

There's some chance that another bad team takes a flier on Chavis, but that ultimately doesn't matter. I'm not really sure that Andujar can do more than just have a decent series or week, so it's hard to guess more beyond this. Even if he flashes a couple nice things, he should still be in the bucket of players who could be DFA'd in December pending some other roster decisions. It's fine if you have some guys like this vying for certain roles in spring training (and since Andujar is new, I'll be gunning to see him hang onto his roster spot for that long), but it's ultimately not any kind of answer.

I think the big thing remains that we need a legitimate, every day batter added to the lineup. If you add that plus an Endy Rodriguez who is only ST manipulated until late April/early May rather than July, then the lineup might have a fighting chance to actually be pretty productive. But I don't think a player like Andujar (or Chavis, or Allen, or Gamel) can be part of plan A to get to that point.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Cruz's Baseball Savant page is...interesting, to put it lightly