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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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MrBrightside said:
I recognize prospect rankings are just the opinions of certain people, but acting like Ortiz is some sure thing after 15 major league innings is what is "I mean, Jesus Christ" worthy. He's the 30th ranked prospect on MLB Pipeline. He's not in the top 20 on Baseball America (I'm not a subscriber so I don't know exactly where he is ranked). Tim Williams has him 28th. FanGraphs has him 23rd. He had an ERA near 5.00 in the minors this year. Yet after 15 innings it's JESUS CHRIST HE'S A NUMBER TWO STARTER AND YOU'RE DUMB IF YOU DON'T AGREE. Ok.

Hey, I hope he's Jake DeGrom. Really and truly. I'll come eat all the crow in the world if he is. The rush to anoint every player who gets off to a good start as a proven major leaguer (and the rush many had to rip Cruz when he struggled early) is understandable but not cogent analysis.
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Also his xFip has been very consistent at all levels the last 2 seasons hovering between (3.20 and 3.70 ish)

He had a bit of a HR issue in high A. But it seems to be the outlier.

Im hopeful but still a long way to go
 
Brown really seems to not like Cruz very much. That was just about as good as it gets defensively.
 
WheresRamziAbid said:
Also his xFip has been very consistent at all levels the last 2 seasons hovering between (3.20 and 3.70 ish)

He had a bit of a HR issue in high A. But it seems to be the outlier.

Im hopeful but still a long way to go
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I have Ortiz ranked #6 right now in our system, behind:

Endy
Johnson
Davis
Priester
Solometo
 
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FYI for MiLB tv havers -- Priester is starting tonight, which is presumably his last AAA start of the year. The Pirates pitching depth might be such that he does end up getting an MLB start in the final series of the year, but I kind of doubt it. Maybe if one of Roansy or Ortiz is shut down, but even then, I have a feeling that if we need a starter for one of the remaining games, we'll just bullpen it.

Anyways, Indianapolis seems to have a frustrating tendency not to display who the pitchers are for upcoming games, so thought I'd just point it out quickly.
 
NewAgeOutlaw said:
Have the Pirates actually won a game against a team that wasn't the Dodgers or Reds?
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Ha, I wanted to say that the Reds and/or Cubs also inflated our W totals a little bit, thinking about the sweep we just had of the Reds, but I did an extremely fast scan and I think we're 19-18 vs the two of them on the season. Probably a testament to how bad all three teams are.

Next year might be a more difficult challenge because of the diversifying of the schedule. Both the Reds and the Cubs might stand to get better from internal and external improvements, but the quality of competition probably goes up by us not having so many games against them (and frankly, the Brewers and Cardinals are at least prone to colder streaks, even if the Cardinals are probably still a genuine playoff contender if you drop them in the NL East).

It seems pretty clear that Cherington's 2022 plans prioritized saving future payroll dollars along with chasing the highest possible pick, and both of these things need to clearly and dramatically change. To an extent I can get where people are coming from when pointing to rebuilding, but I think people are well beyond justified to be completely cynical about it all, given the actions and also at this point, frankly, the talk.

I'm spinning off here into an unrelated rant, but one of the things that the new front office was immediately and lavishly praised for when they took over was that they communicated their vision much better than Huntington's office, especially in the latter years. But now we're settled into the swing of things, and it seems pretty clear that this is not true. Cherington provides run of the mill front office speak on a regular basis, Shelton's main role is to provide good vibes and he almost never says anything about baseball decisions at all, Nutting has been AWOL, and the much-lauded former Penguins executive built a Fathead's in the OF walkway and has been somehow even more AWOL.

Ultimately, I think it's on Cherington to communicate what's going on in the immediate future and then follow through with some actions. The draft lotto adds another layer of complexity to the "tank and collect" strategy. I think at this point, the best anyone can hope for is that we do stay strong to the best odds for the top pick and don't get fully screwed, i.e., we win the top pick or pick 2 or 3, since that then yanks some of the incentive away to make sure that the team falls to the bottom at the end of the season next year because a lottery pick isn't possible.

Odds-wise, unless we end the season on a torrid hot streak or the Reds or Tigers lose out (Reds play all their remaining games after this series vs. the Cubs, and Tigers have stronger opponents but not playoff teams), we should still finish 3rd to last and maintain the best odds of 16.5% to get the top pick, and at worst, 13.25%. For me, the best case scenario is that we are positioned to take Dylan Crews and then don't have to think about the lottery for a while.

I do think that there are year to year team improvements that are harder to fully quantify, especially in September of a bad year. A lot of these depend on health and early season momentum, IMO, but for example, next year we should be starting from a much better position in terms of the rotation as well as the lineup. With the current depth, that only takes you so far, but at least it's a different look to the first few months of the season. I really do believe in the cliche of the rotation being the foundation of the team, and while a trio of Keller, Brubaker, and Contreras isn't necessarily going to be ranked highly in comparison to all MLB teams, that's at least a much clearer and better starting point to a decent team than what the situation was coming out of spring training this year.


All this chatter aside, though, the path to getting better absolutely starts and ends with bringing in some external talent this winter. The team needs a veteran SP and RH bat, and it's well beyond the time where both should make 8 figures.
 
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DJ Spinoza said:
I do think that there are year to year team improvements that are harder to fully quantify, especially in September of a bad year. A lot of these depend on health and early season momentum, IMO, but for example, next year we should be starting from a much better position in terms of the rotation as well as the lineup. With the current depth, that only takes you so far, but at least it's a different look to the first few months of the season. I really do believe in the cliche of the rotation being the foundation of the team, and while a trio of Keller, Brubaker, and Contreras isn't necessarily going to be ranked highly in comparison to all MLB teams, that's at least a much clearer and better starting point to a decent team than what the situation was coming out of spring training this year.


All this chatter aside, though, the path to getting better absolutely starts and ends with bringing in some external talent this winter. The team needs a veteran SP and RH bat, and it's well beyond the time where both should make 8 figures.
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Keller, Contreras, a Quintana reunion, and Ortiz is a good rotational start with 1-2 to be added.

Not great but hey, gotta start somewhere. And I've come around to be pretty excited on Priester.

Here's hoping that we get the 2-3 big external pieces and BC does a less terrible job with dumpster-diving in the bullpen and bench otherwise. Throwing at a dartboard would have a better hit rate than what he has shown so far. It sucks, but we can maybe chalk it up to luck and hope that we actually find a couple of gems this year as opposed to garbage.

8/$40-$50M for Endy with him starting up here on Opening Day would be the best possible scenario as well.
 
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Also, any mention of Travis Williams is pointless. Guy is clearly about sponsorships, TV deals, and stadium entertainment. People loved that kids climbing area. That's fine.

Cherington is the head of things from a baseball perspective and it all flows to him and Nutting's wallet. Good or bad.
 
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Yeah, he is pretty irrelevant, I just mean in the sum total of the new front office and supposed new way of doing things. I long-sounded the horn that one of the big NH front office problems was that he was arrogant, but I find the new guard to basically be indifferent to what's going on. The last three games of the season are probably going to generate ok sales because of Pujols and traveling Cardinals fans, but I bet you can add up the tickets for this Reds series and it still doesn't total a very bad weeknight game, and that's totally warranted.


Anyways, in terms of actual baseball things, there's a clear window where it's possible to change some perceptions through actions. I am bracing to be fully underwhelmed, even while setting the bar low. I shudder to think about the day in December or January, after others have signed, where we start saying stuff like "well, let's take the risk on an Aguilar bounce back year...".

Mancini would be a very solid stabilizer and I don't see him as someone who teams are going to trip over to offer a really large contract to, so it's plausible that something like a 3 year deal would be lucrative enough to get him to sign. Something like that would be a good confidence move, where you maybe front-load a little bit so that he's cheaper in the latter years of the contract, where maybe if things go well, he's in more of a platoon or rotating role, depending on how many prospects actually pop.

That instantly makes the lineup much deeper and if Endy has a smooth transition to MLB, all of a sudden you are 6 quality hitters deep (Cruz, Reynolds, Castro, Mancini, Hayes, Endy) with options for the other spot that are interesting (Suwinski as a #6 or #7 hitter who you see if he can address the Ks and streakiness is a worthwhile play; not so much if he's your #4 or #5 hitter IMO).
 
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DJ Spinoza said:
Yeah, he is pretty irrelevant, I just mean in the sum total of the new front office and supposed new way of doing things. I long-sounded the horn that one of the big NH front office problems was that he was arrogant, but I find the new guard to basically be indifferent to what's going on. The last three games of the season are probably going to generate ok sales because of Pujols and traveling Cardinals fans, but I bet you can add up the tickets for this Reds series and it still doesn't total a very bad weeknight game, and that's totally warranted.


Anyways, in terms of actual baseball things, there's a clear window where it's possible to change some perceptions through actions. I am bracing to be fully underwhelmed, even while setting the bar low. I shudder to think about the day in December or January, after others have signed, where we start saying stuff like "well, let's take the risk on an Aguilar bounce back year...".

Mancini would be a very solid stabilizer and I don't see him as someone who teams are going to trip over to offer a really large contract to, so it's plausible that something like a 3 year deal would be lucrative enough to get him to sign. Something like that would be a good confidence move, where you maybe front-load a little bit so that he's cheaper in the latter years of the contract, where maybe if things go well, he's in more of a platoon or rotating role, depending on how many prospects actually pop.

That instantly makes the lineup much deeper and if Endy has a smooth transition to MLB, all of a sudden you are 6 quality hitters deep (Cruz, Reynolds, Castro, Mancini, Hayes, Endy) with options for the other spot that are interesting (Suwinski as a #6 or #7 hitter who you see if he can address the Ks and streakiness is a worthwhile play; not so much if he's your #4 or #5 hitter IMO).
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Yes, I think we need to back up with action. Firing Haines (at least), a bat, a starter and 3 bullpen arms.

I'd love to get Winker and/or Bellinger as our reclamation guys, though, in addition to Andujar. Trade Jared Jones or whatever for Winker.

I think everyone knows the honeymoon with the current FO is over, with the underwhelming performance of the system in addition to the regression this year. Maybe Nutting doesn't care regardless, but I'm thinking we'll get a $80M payroll to start next year at least.
 
MrBrightside said:
I'll be the first to admit that I don't watch much minor league baseball. I barely have time in my life to watch major league baseball, let alone minor league baseball, and I don't pretend to have the in-depth knowledge of prospects that some on this board possess. And yes, Ortiz has been damned impressive in his 3 major league appearances thus far, something certainly preferable to not being impressive.

My skepticism is several fold, however, and part of it is probably from years of being disappointed by "can't miss" prospects in this organization. While it does happen, it doesn't happen often that guys go from being consensus 20-30th in the system to being top of the rotation major league starters, and I'd really want to know more why the experts all rated him at a level of a prospect that you get in August for a middle reliever than they do a guy who has the "best pure stuff in the league." Yes, I still think the sample size matters a lot, and while you want to just dismiss his minor league stats (and keep getting hung up on my misstatement about him pitching some in A ball this year when that's irrelevant to the point), I would like to know why he's posting an ERA near 5.00 in Altoona before deciding he's a future TOR fixture.
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I get and honor your general conservatism regarding Pirate prospects and Ortiz in particular.

I'm an experienced trainer and people manager. Big part of my job has been developing other managers, and the people that work for them of course. So I have a certain perspective, one built around the patience often necessary in order to develop your staff. I'm also an optimist by nature.

This Ortiz thing happens now and then in MLB, always has always will. And these type of breakout pitchers often have difficulty the following season reproducing, let alone improving upon said performance. Your sceptical nature is not steering you wrong necessarily,

However this guy passes every eye test imaginable, and the small sample advanced stats are extremely ridiculously impressive. I've high hopes, and 0 expectations for next Spring.

I also think it fairly obvious to those that follow such things that he's in the middle of developing that Change into another + or ++ offering, one with a strong K-rate.

I've been following Ortiz from afar for years, and that ceiling as the highest in the Organization BTW. He's got Cy Young potential, and I hope he makes it. But it wouldn't surprise me if he can't maintain the control we've been seeing, and becomes a back of the rotation starter, or flames out.
 
I think that those qualities about Ortiz are why it might be deemed necessary (beyond the obvious ST manipulation) for him to start in AAA again. I'm agnostic about that decision, but lean towards the same cynicism about ST manipulation and would say the following: he is clearly showing that he can get MLB hitters out at a regular clip and manage games effectively so far. Whatever he does with the change (and presumably this will be a focus in the offseason) will be in order to get MLB hitters out, so there's no reason to pull the reigns back from a developmental perspective, since it's possible that he might have walk/homer/predictability issues flare up, and then at that point he can go to AAA for a while to reset himself.

We'll see -- I agree with high hopes + 0 expectations. I am hoping against hope that Quintana is a very high priority this offseason, because he checks all the boxes of what we could use in a rotation stabilizer while also seemingly liking his time here and being loved by the other pitchers. I don't think we'll be priced out even if he pitches in the playoffs and does well, but I think his overall performance and track record of innings covered on a yearly basis might end up making him an appealing option for a more obvious contender, and he may rather go that route.

(Separate discussion for another day, but we should comfortability be able to pay for both Mancini and Quintana while also having 5-10M for another bullpen arm and a flier or two if the will is actually there).
 
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Maybe it's just a late burst of favoritism after the brief injury, but I really do think based on merit that Endy has earned a couple game MLB debut and cameo to end the season. I think it's a fine question to ask if the practice of doing that sends a bad message to the player if/when the team is dead set on them not having a chance to make the MLB team during the following spring training, but I think this front office has already opened this door through its practice and also its words, because they have repeatedly indicated that AAA isn't as much of a necessary developmental level as AA.

I would genuinely be surprised if they did it, as I think the way the Cruz thing played out burned them with the player. There's probably something to the general narrative around the team, too. Wouldn't want to press this too far because obviously a casual fan has no idea who Rodriguez is, but from a PR perspective all you need is an exciting prospect making their debut and then yanking it away next spring.

The other substantive consideration that is worth mentioning is that Endy did start the year in High A, but he's just had such a torrid 3 month conclusion to his season that I think if they are going to reward him, they should. They pretty clearly don't care that much about perception, so they could debut him and then do similar to what they did with Cruz.

FWIW, my take at this point has fully settled that the best move would be to re-sign Perez for starting catcher and have a spring training battle for the backup role. If Endy earns it, then it might open up some other possibilities and flexibility with bench spots, since he can rotate around the field when he's not catching. I guess the only wrinkle for me might be if you want he and Davis at Indy for a while with Kendall basically being a bench coach there for them.
 
Very knee jerk but the hot end of season by some of the young guys at or near the majors have given some hope.

Also as an aside, remember when people were upset that we traded Jacob Stallings. Woof.
 
Yes, they should throw millions at a guy before he shows anything at the major league level, and if they don’t, it’s incompetence. Never change, yinzers
 
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I think there is very little to no benefit for extending Endy right now. The catcher position generally doesn't pay that high to begin with, and it seems like the Pirates aren't fully convinced yet on what position he's going to be playing in the long-run.

Willson Contreras is probably better than Endy's best case scenario, and his 3 arb years paid him $4.5 million, $6.65 million and $9.625 million. That was over a span where he had 3.2 WAR in 105 games, 1 WAR in 57 games (COVID season) and 4.1 WAR in 128 games. The catcher position is just not highly paid enough to justify giving a long-term deal to a catcher.

Scandale du Jour said:
Why would he accept that?
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It's likely way more money than he'd be receiving over those 8 years, at least if he stays as a catcher.

But that's exactly why the Pirates shouldn't do it.
 
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