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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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DJ Spinoza said:
Yeah, the chase rate falling is a hugely encouraging sign. The next steps will be doing more damage on pitches in the zone (he is too patient at times in certain counts still) and getting the walks up. At the very least, we know he is capable of elite power even when the other parts of the game are out of sync, and that he's also capable of a month of extremely good wRC+.

I think you can also just see it pretty well in how they quickly go through the deGrom ABs from a little while ago. Cruz is up there thinking and trying to get himself on time, and he's doing it mid-game against the best pitcher in the league. He is an extraordinary talent and though I think from an organizational strategy perspective, Reynolds should still be the highest priority (as he is also until proven otherwise the best player), I wouldn't be upset if the only thing Cherington got done was a 10 year deal for Cruz.
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If you look deep into his career numbers you can see he's tried changing his approach in order to increase that walk rate several times now. Every time at the cost of hitting & slugging performance. Most of this year has been another such attempt to do what the Org. asks, and take more walks.

It never works (so far), and he retrogrades back to what he's always been statistically throughout his career. A .290ish hitter, .345ish OBP, .500+ power, and a K-rate around 25%. That's what I've seen with my own eyes this month - a return to what he's been, but with a little less chasing, and a little more K's.

Some guys - well actually most guys - can't ever really change their approach once it's been set in their late teens. It's one of the reasons that so many prospects bust out. I'm beginning to think Cruz is one of those majority of guys that can't change what he essentially is at the plate. What he's always been. I think he's tried, he's really been trying, but it hasn't worked so far through several attempts of at least a half season.

The dude is just your classic Dominican hacker. A Starling Marte type approach, with the ridiculous skills to dominate anyway. He's back to being himself this month, it will be interesting to see how the League adjusts back, and if he can adjust, or even needs to.
 
Gallatin said:
If you look deep into his career numbers you can see he's tried changing his approach in order to increase that walk rate several times now. Every time at the cost of hitting & slugging performance. Most of this year has been another such attempt to do what the Org. asks, and take more walks.

It never works (so far), and he retrogrades back to what he's always been statistically throughout his career. A .290ish hitter, .345ish OBP, .500+ power, and a K-rate around 25%. That's what I've seen with my own eyes this month - a return to what he's been, but with a little less chasing, and a little more K's.

Some guys - well actually most guys - can't ever really change their approach once it's been set in their late teens. It's one of the reasons that so many prospects bust out. I'm beginning to think Cruz is one of those majority of guys that can't change what he essentially is at the plate. What he's always been. I think he's tried, he's really been trying, but it hasn't worked so far through several attempts of at least a half season.

The dude is just your classic Dominican hacker. A Starling Marte type approach, with the ridiculous skills to dominate anyway. He's back to being himself this month, it will be interesting to see how the League adjusts back, and if he can adjust, or even needs to.
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Pedro Alvarez playing okay shortstop and able to run is a 4 WAR player. I'm good with it.
 
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Today is the story of Cruz and Godoy.

The talented strikeout artist and the BC guy who has no business facing a major league pitcher. The agony and agony/ecstacy of tanking.
 
If his command continues to hold, Oviedo is a lot more interesting as a mid-rotation guy than some of the other options we've been running out there. I'm cautiously getting more intrigued -- my gut is still that he could be nasty in a leverage role, but it seems like he clearly has better stuff than the bucket of guys like Thompson, Wilson, etc.

Hoping Ortiz can finish out strong tonight. The Cardinals don't particularly have much to play for other than a sendoff for their veterans and maintaining some momentum for the playoffs. I'd imagine they might not rest any of those guys until the final series in Pittsburgh (which might thread a small needle whereby it still makes sense to give Burrows a start, but after flaming out in 0.2 innings, I'd be pretty surprised).
 
For those interested:

12:42Mike: Luis Ortiz(Pirates) seemed to be ranked pretty low for what he has shown in a starting role? Is it just concerns over whether he ends up in the bullpen?

12:42Eric A Longenhagen: The arm action length put him in that bucket but he’s thrown enough strikes at this point (same as Brayan Bello) to override that. He’ll be on the 100 in the update
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blogs.fangraphs.com

Eric Longenhagen Chat

Back from his PED suspension, Eric is here to talk prospects and all things baseball.
blogs.fangraphs.com blogs.fangraphs.com
 
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So if Oritiz and Endy both end up in the top-100, I think that leaves the Pirates with Johnson, Davis, Gonzalez, Peguero, Priester, Ortiz and Endy as top-100 prospects for next year. I think Gonzalez and Davis fall a bit, but not enough to take them out of the top-100. Priester, Ortiz and Endy likely have big jumps, I think Priester and Endy end up at 55 FV and Ortiz ends up at a 50 FV.

Actually, I'm not entirely sure if Gonzalez falls that much. He ended up having a fairly decent season in AA, he finished with a .812 OPS and a 127 WRC+. It's not anything amazing for a 23 year old in AA, but I don't think it's bad enough to have him drop that much.
 
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I think there's a solid chance Gonzo will fall because I don't think Longenhagen likes his profile anyways. Basically a Hiura-type player, so I could see doubts creeping in, etc. His fall league performance might be the most important to keep an eye on, since if he can hold his own against the top pitching talent, then there's more reason to be optimistic. I don't really think it matters too much if FG bumps him back to 45 or 45+.

I'll be most interested to see where the put Endy, since he really did nothing but rake while demonstrating an all-around game. 55 sounds right to me -- 60 might be really aggressive, as that would basically be the highest ranking except for all but the very top, and is realistically the highest they are going to give out to a catcher. Moreno and Alvarez both were there last year, but as prospects probably stand out slightly more than Endy. I think you could make a case to compare what he's done with Moreno, but I think 55 is probably right.
 
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DJ Spinoza said:
I think there's a solid chance Gonzo will fall because I don't think Longenhagen likes his profile anyways. Basically a Hiura-type player, so I could see doubts creeping in, etc. His fall league performance might be the most important to keep an eye on, since if he can hold his own against the top pitching talent, then there's more reason to be optimistic. I don't really think it matters too much if FG bumps him back to 45 or 45+.

I'll be most interested to see where the put Endy, since he really did nothing but rake while demonstrating an all-around game. 55 sounds right to me -- 60 might be really aggressive, as that would basically be the highest ranking except for all but the very top, and is realistically the highest they are going to give out to a catcher. Moreno and Alvarez both were there last year, but as prospects probably stand out slightly more than Endy. I think you could make a case to compare what he's done with Moreno, but I think 55 is probably right.
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Yeah both of these sound right to me. I think you're right that Gonzalez probably falls to a 45 or a 45+.

The prospect I'm really curious to see is Priester and how they rate him. He had a phenomenal year in AA and AAA as just as 21 year old, and he looks like he'll be MLB ready next year. He maintained his very good numbers from A+ in 2021 in AA and AAA this year, while even decreasing his amount of walks a bit as well. I think he gets back up to a 55 FV, which is what he was in 2021.

The Pirates may have 4 55 FV prospects or better when the ratings come out next. Endy, Priester, Johnson and Davis should all by 55 FV prospects, which is the most amount of 55 FV prospects the Pirates have had since Meadows, Glasnow, Keller and Bell in 2017.
 
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Ortiz got blasted tonight, this kind of game happens with young guys. Just didn't have the control and ended up giving a meatball grand slam to Dickerson. He couldn't locate his fastball so he had to rely on his slider, and left some absolute meatball sliders down the middle of the plate.

I think that's ultimately what will decide whether he's a starter or a reliever. If he has bad fastball command in a game, it's basically a blowout because he doesn't have the additional pitches to make up for not having a viable fastball. His slider works well with his fastball when it's commanded well, it doesn't work as the only pitch.
 
Yeah, you see how things can turn without the command. It was encouraging to see him locating the slider to try and claw back, but it didn't end up mattering given the fastball.

Not really sure why we are having Suwinski and Mitchell get reps against LHP but also not sure I care too much.
 
The Cards bullpen sowing doubt right before the playoffs is *chefs kiss*

TBH I don't think they have the horses to actually go far in the playoffs. Basically they ran up the scoreboard against the Cubs, Reds and Pirates.
 
I think the Cards are solid enough but Goldy and Arenado have been pretty cold for a while and they are way less formidable than them. Honestly, I'm not sure I love anyone in the NL other than the Dodgers. The Braves probably have the pitching to make things interesting, but Strider is out. I expect the Dodgers to go to the World Series and the AL to be a lot more interesting.

With Cruz, the sample size still isn't too big but he's basically cut the chase rate way down and is making a huge amount of contact on swings in the zone. I don't have any of the numbers at hand, but it's resulting in roughly even walk and K rates over 7-10 games, and you can see the overall totals start to tick up more. For instance, he's now up to 106 wRC+ on the season.

Even more than the various predictive stats and so on, what's been encouraging with Cruz is that he's slowly and steadily improved his game in deliberate ways. I would even go as far as to say that it's likely that some of the eye test stuff over various stretches can be trickier, simply because this is a guy who is up there with an intentional plan and an approach that is continually being adjusted. While he is and always will be (and should be) aggressive, it's not just a hacking approach, outside of fairly typical stretches for rookies and young players.

The overall pieces of the game are really exciting if he brings them all together. Probably a little bit brash to call ~3 WAR a 2023 floor, but assuming health, it feels like that's in the cards, and any kind of 6 week or 8 week stretch like what he's shown in the past 2-3 especially will start bumping that number up, even if there are some ups and downs that you would expect with a second year player.
 
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No starter listed for tonight's game, so I'd expect it will be some kind of bullpen + Bryse Wilson game. Burrows would be on 6 days rest if we want to give him a look. I'd be somewhat surprised, since he had the rocky 0.2 inning appearance after coming off the IL and I imagine we don't want to chance anything for an injury. At the same time, it's a foregone conclusion that he'll be added to the 40-man roster this offseason and the service accrued likely doesn't mean anything in terms of when he'd debut next year.

It might come down to the current state of the bullpen and how many innings they are expecting from everyone. If the idea is to just have Wilson cover 6ish innings, then unless Oviedo bombs tomorrow, no additional pitcher should be needed. But Wilson also pitched incredibly well last time out and would be on plenty of rest for tonight, so it's a little strange that no starter is listed.

My gut feeling has been that they were angling to get Burrows a late debut this year, similar to Roansy last year.
 
Remember when I clamored for Bae coming up 3-4 months ago?

Explain to me why we couldn't promote him after the AS break when Super 2 was long passed, and that extra year of eligibility was locked in.

Yeah, we're talking 30ish AB's which is insanely small but given he pretty much hit all year and hit very well for a large chunk of his AAA season, with positional flexibility, I really wish we had a legitimate explanation why JHB spent 99% of the year buried, especially considering the near double digit bums we gave months of playing time to.
 
ImporterExporter said:
Remember when I clamored for Bae coming up 3-4 months ago?

Explain to me why we couldn't promote him after the AS break when Super 2 was long passed, and that extra year of eligibility was locked in.

Yeah, we're talking 30ish AB's which is insanely small but given he pretty much hit all year and hit very well for a large chunk of his AAA season, with positional flexibility, I really wish we had a legitimate explanation why JHB spent 99% of the year buried, especially considering the near double digit bums we gave months of playing time to.
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1. Whats the difference
2. If he struggles in ST or early next year you send him down and push the clock back again.
 
Bae wouldn't have moved the needle much in terms of wins/losses but it would have been nice to reward a guy who was playing well all year and presents a competent manager with a player who can be a terror on the bases and play just about any position on defense. So we could still lose about 100 games but get a better player on the field, absorbing valuable reps.
 
Well, we won the series, Andujar, Bae, and others finished on a strong note, and it looks like we also avoided last place in the division by way of a tiebreaker with the Reds, which as a result means we are the 4th worst team and thus have slightly worse odds of winning the #1 pick.

Maybe we'll get some karma luck for winning a meaningless game?
 
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