OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[DanielPlainview]

Great to see the improvement from 61-101 to 62-100

 

[ChaosAgent]

Just for fun, heading into offseason.

Top 20 Pirates (inc. prospects) - Trade Value:
1) Oneil Cruz, SS MLB
2) Bryan Reynolds, OF MLB
3) Endy Rodriguez, C/Util AAA
4) Roansy Contreras, RHSP MLB
5) Termarr Johnson, 2B A
6) Henry Davis, C AA
7) Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B MLB
8) Mitch Keller, RHSP MLB
9) Quinn Priester, RHSP AAA
10) Rodolfo Castro, 2B/Util MLB
11) Anthony Solometo, LHSP A
12) Luis Ortiz, RHSP MLB/AAA
13) David Bednar, RHRP MLB
14) Bubba Chandler, RHSP A
15) Nick Gonzales, 2B AA
16) Ji Hwan Bae, Util MLB
17) Liover Peguero, SS AA
18) Jack Suwinski, OF MLB
19) Mike Burrows, RHSP AAA
20) Malcom Nunez, 1B AA

 

[DanielPlainview]

2.84 ERA for Keller from the ASB. Encouraging.

Brubaker, Keller, and Roansy have to be locks for the rotation. Need to find a 4, assuming Thompson will be the 5

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Draft lottery to air on Network Dec. 6. Here's each team's odds

Major League Baseball has crowned a new champion. Soon, every team will find out where it will pick in the 2023 Draft to help build toward being the next in line. In the past, at the conclusion of the regular season, a rough pass at the first-round order was possible

www.mlb.com

Seems like I am wrong according to this -- while we technically didn't finish last in the division this year, apparently the tiebreaker for the lottery is last year's record, and so we have the top odds along with Washington and Oakland.

Feels like a lot can go wrong even if the odds of really dropping back to 7th or later are slim. I'll be content if we can still end up in the #3-#4 range. Without having done much reading at all, seems like Dylan Crews is who to pull for, and my vague sense is that he could end up with a very strong shot to be a lock at 1.1 if he has a strong season this spring. However, it also looks like there are several other strong college hitters, which is a big plus as far as I'm concerned, as well some tooled up prep hitters.

As usual, it's a bit of a fool's errand to think too much about possible options (especially before the actual order is even determined), but Crews' loud tools and likely quick path to the majors seem obviously the most enticing for us.

 

[MrBrightside]

2.84 ERA for Keller from the ASB. Encouraging.

Brubaker, Keller, and Roansy have to be locks for the rotation. Need to find a 4, assuming Thompson will be the 5

Why would we assume Thompson would be in the rotation?

 

[DanielPlainview]

Why would we assume Thompson would be in the rotation?

I think he’s under contract till 2026

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I remain fairly bullish on Brubaker, especially because the only way he would be pushed out of the rotation (other than injury) is if we signed 1-2 pitchers and got outstanding performances from rookies.

I think the best starting default is that Keller, Brubaker, and Roansy are relative locks, and then there will be competition for other roles + ideally at least one veteran brought in to stabilize things. Quick and dirty look at other candidates:

Thompson: He's meh, serviceable for what he can be and I'm sure will be involved in some way. At the end of this I'll reiterate the need for an external veteran. Thompson seems well-suited for a combination mid-relief / swingman / long reliever role, especially because he'll still have an option and so can go up and down.

Oviedo: For me, he's in the same boat as Thompson except the upside is more tantalizing because of the stuff. I think he showed enough in his starts that he should have a chance to make the rotation out of spring training, though in some ways I am still leaning towards the idea that we're better served moving him to a leverage role in the pen. Next year will be a big year for him, and I think we are well-suited to still experiment with his role.

Ortiz: I think he's big test #1 for how serious the front office is about not just paying lip service to 2023. He should not have a lock on a roster spot, but from what he showed as well as the amount of innings he pitched, he should be able to claim one of the spots in the rotation from Day 1. I'm open to the idea that he could tune up the changeup in AAA, but ultimately if the pitch looks good in the spring and he performs, there's no performance argument for keeping him in AAA, and the difference between him and other possible options for the 4th and 5th starter is pretty big.

Wilson: This is big test #2 for me. He will be out of options and thus have to be DFA'd if he isn't with the MLB team. Better MLB teams who are trying to win as soon as possible don't worry about middling depth starters, so what happens with Wilson should be entirely performance-based. Maybe he sneaks into the bullpen as a swing man to eat some early innings if necessary, but anything more than that (and even that) should require him to really impress in spring training.

Burrows/Priester: I put these two guys in the same bucket because especially with Ortiz already showing something in MLB, it would stand to reason that there's very little chance either makes the team and likely starts in AAA. I think there's a decent shot that both will be kept down until after Super Two, which is a minor test for me but not necessarily something I'll kick and scream about depending on how the rest of it shakes out. My tentative thought is that Burrows should be on a similar path to what Roansy was on this year. Innings will be a big question for both, especially Burrows IMO. Probably a reason to slow roll them a little bit out of spring training and onto the AAA team where they can build up by pitching once a week instead of every 5 days.


That's basically the group unless I am forgetting someone. The way I'd like to see them approach things is to sign a veteran, specifically Quintana, who will be a staple for innings and stability in the middle of the rotation. That gives you a little bit of injury coverage in the case of one or more of the big three, and also basically makes the competition just for one spot.

I would think about even bringing in another veteran option on a prove it type contract, since there's something to be said about covering innings in general. But in the end, having a competition that's primarily Oviedo vs. Ortiz for the 5th starter spot would be a positive development, since it firmly pushes Thompson to depth/bullpen and allows you to carefully watch other young arms.

If everyone stays healthy and we do bring in Quintana, then it's not terrible on paper, and you probably have some leeway to see how things shake out over April and May. There will be injuries, so maybe Oviedo and Ortiz are both in the mix at some point or Thompson gets tossed into the fray for a few starts, etc.

I'll be pretty surprised if we do bring Quintana back, but at least the way all the players seemed to treat him + how he seemed to like it here, maybe there's a shot if the will actually does exist to pay some free agents modestly to bolster the team. Mackey is saying 20-30M will be spent, to which obviously the right attitude is "I'll believe it when I see it." Quintana specifically is someone who I think is worth investing in as a veteran over 3 years, and maybe even 3 and an option, because I think he's a safe bet to provide innings, which somehow seem undervalued in all the discourse about free agency and WAR, etc. I also think his style of pitching is something that will age fairly well, not unlike a guy like Grienke for example.

I have no idea what his market is actually going to be, but my guess is that we'll either look to a trade or a cheaper option on a prove it type deal. I'm going to judge the offseason as a whole, but Quintana is fairly close to priority #1 to me, the more I think about it. If we shy away from a modest 3-4 year commitment, the only way I'm not going to roll my eyes about it is if we're spending a big chunk of this so-called 20-30M on an everyday position player or other veteran starter. Talk is cheap.

 

[Gallatin]

I remain fairly bullish on Brubaker, especially because the only way he would be pushed out of the rotation (other than injury) is if we signed 1-2 pitchers and got outstanding performances from rookies.

I think the best starting default is that Keller, Brubaker, and Roansy are relative locks, and then there will be competition for other roles + ideally at least one veteran brought in to stabilize things. Quick and dirty look at other candidates:

Thompson: He's meh, serviceable for what he can be and I'm sure will be involved in some way. At the end of this I'll reiterate the need for an external veteran. Thompson seems well-suited for a combination mid-relief / swingman / long reliever role, especially because he'll still have an option and so can go up and down.

Oviedo: For me, he's in the same boat as Thompson except the upside is more tantalizing because of the stuff. I think he showed enough in his starts that he should have a chance to make the rotation out of spring training, though in some ways I am still leaning towards the idea that we're better served moving him to a leverage role in the pen. Next year will be a big year for him, and I think we are well-suited to still experiment with his role.

Ortiz: I think he's big test #1 for how serious the front office is about not just paying lip service to 2023. He should not have a lock on a roster spot, but from what he showed as well as the amount of innings he pitched, he should be able to claim one of the spots in the rotation from Day 1. I'm open to the idea that he could tune up the changeup in AAA, but ultimately if the pitch looks good in the spring and he performs, there's no performance argument for keeping him in AAA, and the difference between him and other possible options for the 4th and 5th starter is pretty big.

Wilson: This is big test #2 for me. He will be out of options and thus have to be DFA'd if he isn't with the MLB team. Better MLB teams who are trying to win as soon as possible don't worry about middling depth starters, so what happens with Wilson should be entirely performance-based. Maybe he sneaks into the bullpen as a swing man to eat some early innings if necessary, but anything more than that (and even that) should require him to really impress in spring training.

Burrows/Priester: I put these two guys in the same bucket because especially with Ortiz already showing something in MLB, it would stand to reason that there's very little chance either makes the team and likely starts in AAA. I think there's a decent shot that both will be kept down until after Super Two, which is a minor test for me but not necessarily something I'll kick and scream about depending on how the rest of it shakes out. My tentative thought is that Burrows should be on a similar path to what Roansy was on this year. Innings will be a big question for both, especially Burrows IMO. Probably a reason to slow roll them a little bit out of spring training and onto the AAA team where they can build up by pitching once a week instead of every 5 days.


That's basically the group unless I am forgetting someone. The way I'd like to see them approach things is to sign a veteran, specifically Quintana, who will be a staple for innings and stability in the middle of the rotation. That gives you a little bit of injury coverage in the case of one or more of the big three, and also basically makes the competition just for one spot.

I would think about even bringing in another veteran option on a prove it type contract, since there's something to be said about covering innings in general. But in the end, having a competition that's primarily Oviedo vs. Ortiz for the 5th starter spot would be a positive development, since it firmly pushes Thompson to depth/bullpen and allows you to carefully watch other young arms.

If everyone stays healthy and we do bring in Quintana, then it's not terrible on paper, and you probably have some leeway to see how things shake out over April and May. There will be injuries, so maybe Oviedo and Ortiz are both in the mix at some point or Thompson gets tossed into the fray for a few starts, etc.

I'll be pretty surprised if we do bring Quintana back, but at least the way all the players seemed to treat him + how he seemed to like it here, maybe there's a shot if the will actually does exist to pay some free agents modestly to bolster the team. Mackey is saying 20-30M will be spent, to which obviously the right attitude is "I'll believe it when I see it." Quintana specifically is someone who I think is worth investing in as a veteran over 3 years, and maybe even 3 and an option, because I think he's a safe bet to provide innings, which somehow seem undervalued in all the discourse about free agency and WAR, etc. I also think his style of pitching is something that will age fairly well, not unlike a guy like Grienke for example.

I have no idea what his market is actually going to be, but my guess is that we'll either look to a trade or a cheaper option on a prove it type deal. I'm going to judge the offseason as a whole, but Quintana is fairly close to priority #1 to me, the more I think about it. If we shy away from a modest 3-4 year commitment, the only way I'm not going to roll my eyes about it is if we're spending a big chunk of this so-called 20-30M on an everyday position player or other veteran starter. Talk is cheap.

Just say no to a 34yr old Quintana @ 4yrs term. That's not something well run small market clubs do. Would love to have him back, but 3yrs is tuff enough at his age, 4yrs is an absolute no-brainer no.

Keller, Contrares, Oviedo, Brubaker, & an FA are my starters next Spring. One of Ortiz, Priester, or Burrows would get the 1st injury call-up depending on performance.

Will be nice to have AAA pitching depth in 23.

Add a legit RH bat and a high leverage Reliever or two - now we're cooking with .

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't think they will be able to go very far without a veteran starter added to the mix, and Quintana is about as close as you can even dream up in terms of already being a fit + basically dialing in 180IP each year. 3 years and an option for ages 34, 35, and 36 definitely involves some risk, but I don't see how this team takes a big leap without passing over some risk.

It's also hard to know what Quintana wants, and it might even come down to what happens in the postseason. He's now back on the radar, and this could even be more true if he performs in his postseason starts. If the Cardinals win (), maybe he's more receptive to coming back to a place he seemed to like. But if not, maybe he prioritizes signing with a true competitor, or wants to live on a coast, etc. It's too hard to even guess at this until the season really ends, so I don't think it's worth getting too up in arms about.

However, there is still a question of the fundamental bottom line. The payroll for next year figures to be maybe 45M before any additions are factored in. That means even if we take Mackey's high number of 30M, the upper limit is 75M, and maybe that gets pushed up 10M more if you want to go full blown optimistic and also assume extensions that are front-loaded a little bit.

But at the end of the day, there is still barely anything committed to the payroll for the foreseeable future. If we again want to be optimistic and add Reynolds, Cruz, and maybe one more to an extension ledger, then with Hayes, a veteran SP and veteran RH bat, the payroll commitments are still only going to be barely at the level of respectability. Looking at the projected years of control, I don't even think there is the whiff of "problems" until 2026 or so.

I'm just stabbing in the dark with 3 years or 3 years and some kind of team or mutual option. I do think some of Quintana's peripherals suggest he won't maintain this kind of level, but it's hard to say. He's enormously valuable even if he can just do what he did this year for another 2 seasons. There might be some irony to the fact that he seems like an ideal reunion candidate but the timing of what would probably help the team most might not coincide with him... if the MLB team had taken a clear step forward, then locking in his 2023 and 2024 could be really worth it.


In any case, I'm pessimistic that any kind of reunion will happen, setting aside money or years. I think the best case scenario this offseason is that we extend Reynolds and Cruz while dragging our feet with actual free agents, maybe picking up one of the RH bats and waiting for a while on a reclamation veteran SP for cheap. Honestly, it might not be the worst strategy if you can still get a Mancini or Haniger, and then maybe save on pitching but also try out somebody like Aguilar as a bounce back 1B in addition to the others.

I'm droning on forever again here, but for me it still comes down to there being too many potential variables and scenarios, which is rooted in the fact that this team has several huge steps to take before it's even "decent and may surprise a little." I'd "settle" for a Reynolds extension as a starting point, especially because a trade would indicate the worst possible assumptions you could even have about Cherington's entire approach for the past few years. But getting a stable 180IP, even if it's "only" a 1.5 or 2 WAR level, would be enormous in terms of stabilizing the pitching situation as more talent continues to arrive, and I just don't see anyone even close to Quintana out there.

 

[Gallatin]

I don't think they will be able to go very far without a veteran starter added to the mix, and Quintana is about as close as you can even dream up in terms of already being a fit + basically dialing in 180IP each year. 3 years and an option for ages 34, 35, and 36 definitely involves some risk, but I don't see how this team takes a big leap without passing over some risk.

It's also hard to know what Quintana wants, and it might even come down to what happens in the postseason. He's now back on the radar, and this could even be more true if he performs in his postseason starts. If the Cardinals win (), maybe he's more receptive to coming back to a place he seemed to like. But if not, maybe he prioritizes signing with a true competitor, or wants to live on a coast, etc. It's too hard to even guess at this until the season really ends, so I don't think it's worth getting too up in arms about.

However, there is still a question of the fundamental bottom line. The payroll for next year figures to be maybe 45M before any additions are factored in. That means even if we take Mackey's high number of 30M, the upper limit is 75M, and maybe that gets pushed up 10M more if you want to go full blown optimistic and also assume extensions that are front-loaded a little bit.

But at the end of the day, there is still barely anything committed to the payroll for the foreseeable future. If we again want to be optimistic and add Reynolds, Cruz, and maybe one more to an extension ledger, then with Hayes, a veteran SP and veteran RH bat, the payroll commitments are still only going to be barely at the level of respectability. Looking at the projected years of control, I don't even think there is the whiff of "problems" until 2026 or so.

I'm just stabbing in the dark with 3 years or 3 years and some kind of team or mutual option. I do think some of Quintana's peripherals suggest he won't maintain this kind of level, but it's hard to say. He's enormously valuable even if he can just do what he did this year for another 2 seasons. There might be some irony to the fact that he seems like an ideal reunion candidate but the timing of what would probably help the team most might not coincide with him... if the MLB team had taken a clear step forward, then locking in his 2023 and 2024 could be really worth it.


In any case, I'm pessimistic that any kind of reunion will happen, setting aside money or years. I think the best case scenario this offseason is that we extend Reynolds and Cruz while dragging our feet with actual free agents, maybe picking up one of the RH bats and waiting for a while on a reclamation veteran SP for cheap. Honestly, it might not be the worst strategy if you can still get a Mancini or Haniger, and then maybe save on pitching but also try out somebody like Aguilar as a bounce back 1B in addition to the others.

I'm droning on forever again here, but for me it still comes down to there being too many potential variables and scenarios, which is rooted in the fact that this team has several huge steps to take before it's even "decent and may surprise a little." I'd "settle" for a Reynolds extension as a starting point, especially because a trade would indicate the worst possible assumptions you could even have about Cherington's entire approach for the past few years. But getting a stable 180IP, even if it's "only" a 1.5 or 2 WAR level, would be enormous in terms of stabilizing the pitching situation as more talent continues to arrive, and I just don't see anyone even close to Quintana out there.

This turnaround will happen fast. The pump is primed, kinda surprised nobody sees it.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm not fully pessimistic about a quick turnaround, but I am still relatively cautious. Because of how the tailspin extended into this year, the bar is pretty low, since 75-78 wins or something would be a big jump up. Just looking at the division and the Cubs managed to put up a little shy of that total this year while probably being poised to make a big addition or two in free agency.

There are a lot of ifs which need to be answered or go our way before we start expecting that kind of step up or more. If we add a mid-rotation SP and get consistent performance and health, then I do think that's a big step up in terms of a foundation that will prevent the kind of extended losing streaks we've seen so much of under Shelton/Cherington.

On offense, the first big if which I am truly not certain about is whether or not Reynolds is gone. I have to assume they won't trade him over the winter with fan enthusiasm being what it is (though I also don't think they care that much about that stuff... it would be hard for less people to attend games as it is), but I do think there are lots of scenarios where they can't get an extension done and then are basically pushed to start shopping him as the season starts.

I wouldn't say it's dire with Reynolds, but keeping him without an extension would then require a very aggressive spending plan in order to take true shots at a playoff run starting this season and especially 2024. I actually thinking going all the way through arbitration with him might be the compromise path. Play for an early championship through 2025 and then extend the qualifying offer if it comes to it. He's the best player until Cruz really takes that away from him, but if I were forced to choose between who to offer an extension to, I'm taking Cruz.

Beyond that situation, Cruz's consistency will loom large. I'm confident in him, but it's unreasonable to assume that a second year player will carry the whole offense from start to finish. If we do add the veteran bat and get good performances as well as good competition that pushes up performances from the big group of young players who have already emerged, plus something from the handful like Endy, Davis, etc. who are the next wave, then the offense can be a weapon on the basis of a better pitching staff.

But those are lots of ifs, and there are lots of ways it can go sideways quickly. I think the bullpen is as much about luck as anything else. Clearly we need to get away from just having semi-serviceable innings absorbers who get overused, and signing a fresh arm or two, plus improving the depth of the rotation, should help. All told, I think there's enough pessimism to think that a quick turnaround to something like 75-78 wins is possible if we get everything that seems to be being promised + possible, and then another step forward for 2024 and a WC/playoff chase, but those steps are still pretty giant ones for the team that actually has played in MLB so far.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I'd still extend Endy first, because it will avoid any Super 2 nonsense.

The comments about catchers not getting paid feels arbitrary. If say, Rutschman wanted to get extended Baltimore wouldn't say "whoa whoa whoa you're a catcher! No soup for you!"

Not sure what Reynolds' market value is, given he isn't going to play CF into his 30s and is ultimately a good player, not a great one. I"ll be curious as to what Nimmo gets as he's a good comp for Reynolds in FA. Scouring the contracts last year, Castellanos, Rizzo and Schwarber are decent comps.

Cruz...eh, I want Cruz motivated.

Need a viable, good righty bat, a good starter (ideally 2) and another reliever (ideally 2). And a catcher especially if we intend to ST manipulate Endy.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, who revealed he’s been nagged all season by a persistent back injury, went 0-for-3 and left the game after five innings.

“There was definitely positives and negatives, ups and downs this year,” Hayes said. “This offseason, I have to figure out the best way to get back to feeling more normal.”

About a month before spring training, Hayes tweaked his hip while lifting weights. That injury lingered into spring training, then led to nagging back pain

Hayes is made of glass

 

[Gallatin]

I'm not fully pessimistic about a quick turnaround, but I am still relatively cautious. Because of how the tailspin extended into this year, the bar is pretty low, since 75-78 wins or something would be a big jump up. Just looking at the division and the Cubs managed to put up a little shy of that total this year while probably being poised to make a big addition or two in free agency.

There are a lot of ifs which need to be answered or go our way before we start expecting that kind of step up or more. If we add a mid-rotation SP and get consistent performance and health, then I do think that's a big step up in terms of a foundation that will prevent the kind of extended losing streaks we've seen so much of under Shelton/Cherington.

On offense, the first big if which I am truly not certain about is whether or not Reynolds is gone. I have to assume they won't trade him over the winter with fan enthusiasm being what it is (though I also don't think they care that much about that stuff... it would be hard for less people to attend games as it is), but I do think there are lots of scenarios where they can't get an extension done and then are basically pushed to start shopping him as the season starts.

I wouldn't say it's dire with Reynolds, but keeping him without an extension would then require a very aggressive spending plan in order to take true shots at a playoff run starting this season and especially 2024. I actually thinking going all the way through arbitration with him might be the compromise path. Play for an early championship through 2025 and then extend the qualifying offer if it comes to it. He's the best player until Cruz really takes that away from him, but if I were forced to choose between who to offer an extension to, I'm taking Cruz.

Beyond that situation, Cruz's consistency will loom large. I'm confident in him, but it's unreasonable to assume that a second year player will carry the whole offense from start to finish. If we do add the veteran bat and get good performances as well as good competition that pushes up performances from the big group of young players who have already emerged, plus something from the handful like Endy, Davis, etc. who are the next wave, then the offense can be a weapon on the basis of a better pitching staff.

But those are lots of ifs, and there are lots of ways it can go sideways quickly. I think the bullpen is as much about luck as anything else. Clearly we need to get away from just having semi-serviceable innings absorbers who get overused, and signing a fresh arm or two, plus improving the depth of the rotation, should help. All told, I think there's enough pessimism to think that a quick turnaround to something like 75-78 wins is possible if we get everything that seems to be being promised + possible, and then another step forward for 2024 and a WC/playoff chase, but those steps are still pretty giant ones for the team that actually has played in MLB so far.

75-78 is totally reasonable. I personally experienced the late 80's Pittsburgh Pirates - saw most of the games those years. In 86 they won 64 games, 87 was a glorious jump to 80 wins. I expect something similar next season if the Front Office tries. Pretty sure they will. Would be a serious mistake to throw away 2023 like they did 21-22 IMO.

 

[Gallatin]

Doubt I need to explain this comparison of 1st year Bucco's, but someone had to do it.

361PA .233/.294/.450/.744 7.8BB% 34.9K% .218ISO .317BABIP .320wOBA 106wRC+
484PA .223/.230/.416/.746 13.4BB% 21.1K% .194ISO .256BABIP .333wOBA 108wRC+

Amazing how tight they are outside of BB's & K's. Barry was a year younger, and 6 inches shorter.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

2022 Top Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

Compreshensive MLB prospect rankings in a sortable, easy-to-read, feature-rich table.

www.fangraphs.com

FanGraphs updated their Pirates list. Endy rockets way up to a 55FV and 33rd on the top 100, while Ortiz is given a 50FV and comes in at 50th on the top 100. From a quick glance it looks more like they just bumped those guys than moved anyone down or rewrote bios, since obviously a full overhaul is a lot more work.

Encouraging to see the external validation.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If Cruz doesn't progress at all from what he did last year, he's still going to be a very good SS for this team. He had an above average OPS+ and WRC+ while playing seemingly solid defense at SS and was on pace for about 35 HRs. Even with his strikeout problems, he's going to comfortably be a 4 WAR player at SS with those numbers.

The only question I have with him is his defense at SS, because the results say such different things depending on where you look.

2022 Top Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

Compreshensive MLB prospect rankings in a sortable, easy-to-read, feature-rich table.

www.fangraphs.com

FanGraphs updated their Pirates list. Endy rockets way up to a 55FV and 33rd on the top 100, while Ortiz is given a 50FV and comes in at 50th on the top 100. From a quick glance it looks more like they just bumped those guys than moved anyone down or rewrote bios, since obviously a full overhaul is a lot more work.

Encouraging to see the external validation.

Both of those are what I expected. The only thing that I expected that didn't happen was Priester getting promoted to 55 FV.

It's also nice to see that Gonzalez didn't get bumped down.

 

[Gallatin]

If Cruz doesn't progress at all from what he did last year, he's still going to be a very good SS for this team. He had an above average OPS+ and WRC+ while playing seemingly solid defense at SS and was on pace for about 35 HRs. Even with his strikeout problems, he's going to comfortably be a 4 WAR player at SS with those numbers.

The only question I have with him is his defense at SS, because the results say such different things depending on where you look.



Both of those are what I expected. The only thing that I expected that didn't happen was Priester getting promoted to 55 FV.

It's also nice to see that Gonzalez didn't get bumped down.

On Priester - I don't believe the online scouting community will be able to distinguish how big a leap forward developing that Sinker was. There's still something of a bias towards 4-Seamers IMO, and Quinn's was simply average without the Sinker to take some pressure off it. Now it plays up, and the Sinker was getting so good at the end of the season he might not even need it.

 

[Gallatin]

2022 Top Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

Compreshensive MLB prospect rankings in a sortable, easy-to-read, feature-rich table.

www.fangraphs.com

FanGraphs updated their Pirates list. Endy rockets way up to a 55FV and 33rd on the top 100, while Ortiz is given a 50FV and comes in at 50th on the top 100. From a quick glance it looks more like they just bumped those guys than moved anyone down or rewrote bios, since obviously a full overhaul is a lot more work.

Encouraging to see the external validation.

Endy will get another jump this Winter if he performs down South. Was his defense better than his offense? Because I was super impressed with his work behind the plate. I saw the raw skills of a true "natural" back there, which surprised the hell out of me. In particular I sometimes found the glove "exceptional". I think his vision is top top as well. And he moved around a lot like the last Superstar Catcher we had here. I think he has pretty extreme hand-eye coordination, with some real quickness. And of course, the arm is very good.

 

[Empoleon8771]

On Priester - I don't believe the online scouting community will be able to distinguish how big a leap forward developing that Sinker was. There's still something of a bias towards 4-Seamers IMO, and Quinn's was simply average without the Sinker to take some pressure off it. Now it plays up, and the Sinker was getting so good at the end of the season he might not even need it.

I feel like you could logically conclude he deserves to be bumped up based on how he did in AA and AAA this year.

He had a 3.29 ERA between mostly AA and AAA as a 21 year old with a pretty solid strikeout to walk ratio. I don't see what he's missing to justify moving him higher. He was particularly dominant in AA this year and I think he's almost a surefire MLBer next year unless he gets hurt.

I think the Pirates starting rotation is in a very good spot next year, between what they're getting out of Keller, Contreras and Brubaker in the MLB and Priester and Ortiz in the minors. They do need a solid #3 veteran, but I think that's as much about "veteran presence to help the kids" as much as it is "upgrading the starting rotation".

 

[Gallatin]

I feel like you could logically conclude he deserves to be bumped up based on how he did in AA and AAA this year.

He had a 3.29 ERA between mostly AA and AAA as a 21 year old with a pretty solid strikeout to walk ratio. I don't see what he's missing to justify moving him higher. He was particularly dominant in AA this year and I think he's almost a surefire MLBer next year unless he gets hurt.

I think the Pirates starting rotation is in a very good spot next year, between what they're getting out of Keller, Contreras and Brubaker in the MLB and Priester and Ortiz in the minors. They do need a solid #3 veteran, but I think that's as much about "veteran presence to help the kids" as much as it is "upgrading the starting rotation".

The pitching staff is the greatest reason for my optimism in 2023. I believe if they get another Quintana/Anderson type, a good late inning Reliever, and stay relatively healthy, they will be above League average.

I'm continuing my bullishness in regards to Mr. Keller, and he will advance and improve yet again next season. This version of Mitch still has Ace potential IMO. And I'm sold on him as a legit #2 next year. With upside.

Roansy Contrares will likely not figure it out next season, yet still produce strong mid-rotation type results. I love those two guys at the top right now, and I believe Contreras will benefit from exposure to Keller's journey.

Priester, Ortiz, and Oviedo - oh my! One of those dudes breaks out in May/June.

I may be in the minority but I like Bednar, Holderman, De Los Santos, and Samaniego (mid-season) for next year. And there's plenty of solid 5th/6th inning guys already on this team. Bring in a 8th inning type and this group could excel. Oviedo could easily fill that role though...

 

[ImporterExporter]

If the same coaches are back, which seems like the case, I'd not get overly excited. The team will improve as the talent arrives while still be neutered by subpar baseball people.

First order of business, and it should happen very soon, is cleaning out the coaching staff with the exception of Marin.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't mean this as a point against that, since obviously it's pretty specific and the main culprits here are Shelton and Haines, but the more I read after the season, the more it seems like Radley Haddad was a huge acquisition and a big reason why Keller and Brubaker (to a lesser extent) were able to take steps forward.

However, I do tend to think that the starting point for showing they are serious about 2023 comes with action over talk regarding extensions and real free agent signings. I'd worry a little bit about a firing brigade as laying the blame for a disappointing 2022 on Shelton, though of course it's not like these things are mutually exclusive.

The "best" path might be extensions and signing 3-4 bonafide SP, RP, and bats (one of each and a dart throw reclamation arm would probably be fine) and then a mid-season firing if we see some of the same extended slides, etc.

I'd still be surprised, though, simply because Shelton seems like he is much more in sync with the front office than managers sometimes are, and at least in public everybody has maintained a front that they are still following a plan. I want to be clear that I dislike Shelton (and doubly so Haines), but there's also a part of me that basically thinks a lot of internal firings would be a sign that things are more in disarray or a sign that ownership has started to meddle, or something along those lines. I don't think in-game decisions are really all that important and I think the organizational philosophy comes from the top.

I dunno, I don't want to put forward some kind of arbitrary hot take since I fundamentally agree that he and Haines are useless. What I worry about is that there seem to be kind of two alternatives: 1) there is basically no coherent plan and so nothing matters until there's a full house-cleaning, including of the scouting and analytics departments which were basically left untouched; 2) the plan has been to fully tank as long as possible in the pursuit of as much talent as they could get their hands on, and the next stage is finally coming.

The timing of all the team control works pretty well for #2, including even Reynolds, because it is possible to just ride out arbitration with him instead of committing a huge contract. And with regard to Shelton, if that was the plan all along, then I have to assume he had at least some assurance that he would be able to manage for a season or two when the front office actually was attempting to win at the MLB level. At the end of the day, the most any manager might have done with the rosters that Cherington has assembled is squeak out a few more wins here or there.

 

[Gallatin]

I don't mean this as a point against that, since obviously it's pretty specific and the main culprits here are Shelton and Haines, but the more I read after the season, the more it seems like Radley Haddad was a huge acquisition and a big reason why Keller and Brubaker (to a lesser extent) were able to take steps forward.

However, I do tend to think that the starting point for showing they are serious about 2023 comes with action over talk regarding extensions and real free agent signings. I'd worry a little bit about a firing brigade as laying the blame for a disappointing 2022 on Shelton, though of course it's not like these things are mutually exclusive.

The "best" path might be extensions and signing 3-4 bonafide SP, RP, and bats (one of each and a dart throw reclamation arm would probably be fine) and then a mid-season firing if we see some of the same extended slides, etc.

I'd still be surprised, though, simply because Shelton seems like he is much more in sync with the front office than managers sometimes are, and at least in public everybody has maintained a front that they are still following a plan. I want to be clear that I dislike Shelton (and doubly so Haines), but there's also a part of me that basically thinks a lot of internal firings would be a sign that things are more in disarray or a sign that ownership has started to meddle, or something along those lines. I don't think in-game decisions are really all that important and I think the organizational philosophy comes from the top.

I dunno, I don't want to put forward some kind of arbitrary hot take since I fundamentally agree that he and Haines are useless. What I worry about is that there seem to be kind of two alternatives: 1) there is basically no coherent plan and so nothing matters until there's a full house-cleaning, including of the scouting and analytics departments which were basically left untouched; 2) the plan has been to fully tank as long as possible in the pursuit of as much talent as they could get their hands on, and the next stage is finally coming.

The timing of all the team control works pretty well for #2, including even Reynolds, because it is possible to just ride out arbitration with him instead of committing a huge contract. And with regard to Shelton, if that was the plan all along, then I have to assume he had at least some assurance that he would be able to manage for a season or two when the front office actually was attempting to win at the MLB level. At the end of the day, the most any manager might have done with the rosters that Cherington has assembled is squeak out a few more wins here or there.

I always assumed Shelton was the upbeat positive guy brought it in to lose lose lose - and oversee the teardown phase. Maybe he develops, but he was hired to fired IMO.

Can't really say as to what the Pirates believe right now, however your's truly believes the tear down phase is over, and now it's just build build build. Now is the best time to move on IMO, although I'm not nearly as convinced Shelton is hopeless as some. If they keep him, he'll get the benefit of the doubt from me for a month or two next year.

I think it obvious the hitting coach is the most useless...

I don't mean this as a point against that, since obviously it's pretty specific and the main culprits here are Shelton and Haines, but the more I read after the season, the more it seems like Radley Haddad was a huge acquisition and a big reason why Keller and Brubaker (to a lesser extent) were able to take steps forward.

However, I do tend to think that the starting point for showing they are serious about 2023 comes with action over talk regarding extensions and real free agent signings. I'd worry a little bit about a firing brigade as laying the blame for a disappointing 2022 on Shelton, though of course it's not like these things are mutually exclusive.

The "best" path might be extensions and signing 3-4 bonafide SP, RP, and bats (one of each and a dart throw reclamation arm would probably be fine) and then a mid-season firing if we see some of the same extended slides, etc.

I'd still be surprised, though, simply because Shelton seems like he is much more in sync with the front office than managers sometimes are, and at least in public everybody has maintained a front that they are still following a plan. I want to be clear that I dislike Shelton (and doubly so Haines), but there's also a part of me that basically thinks a lot of internal firings would be a sign that things are more in disarray or a sign that ownership has started to meddle, or something along those lines. I don't think in-game decisions are really all that important and I think the organizational philosophy comes from the top.

I dunno, I don't want to put forward some kind of arbitrary hot take since I fundamentally agree that he and Haines are useless. What I worry about is that there seem to be kind of two alternatives: 1) there is basically no coherent plan and so nothing matters until there's a full house-cleaning, including of the scouting and analytics departments which were basically left untouched; 2) the plan has been to fully tank as long as possible in the pursuit of as much talent as they could get their hands on, and the next stage is finally coming.

The timing of all the team control works pretty well for #2, including even Reynolds, because it is possible to just ride out arbitration with him instead of committing a huge contract. And with regard to Shelton, if that was the plan all along, then I have to assume he had at least some assurance that he would be able to manage for a season or two when the front office actually was attempting to win at the MLB level. At the end of the day, the

I missed the Haddad acquisition's impact on pitching. Do you know things, or simply surmising that since he comes from the Yankees and they've been so successful at these kinds of things....

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I missed the Haddad acquisition's impact on pitching. Do you know things, or simply surmising that since he comes from the Yankees and they've been so successful at these kinds of things....

I don't have any links or inside info, just various interviews with Keller and others where they say that Haddad is vital for game planning and in-game consultation, etc. I think it's a role that is probably really important in terms of getting the best out of what you have, and for helping pitchers to mature into actual pitchers. I don't know if it's mostly on Haddad and I think as coach, Marin deserves credit, but to me that has been the biggest jump forward for Keller. He has refined his actual pitches and made better use of better pitches, etc., but he can also adjust to the situation on the fly when he is on the mound and if a pitch isn't working, he attacks with other options and pitches to the actual situation. It's' the polar opposite of all those times for years where he was just lost out there.

Regarding Shelton, I think we agree more than others. I'd be indifferent if we fired him but I think he was brought in for good vibes and because he'd basically follow instructions from the front office. It's probably to his credit that we haven't seen too much in the way of blow ups or obvious frustration. As far as I can tell, players seem to like him, and that's half the battle IMO simply because in today's game, other than a handful of dinosaurs, there's no manager who isn't just part of the front office.

So in short, I think his actual decisions, while bad and frustrating, aren't actually that different from anyone else who could be thrusted into the role. It's a bit of a blind faith approach but I just don't really think it's that important that he be fired. I'd much rather it be Haines, even though Haines also had little to work with at times, since it seems like Haines has a kind of one-size-fits-all approach and I don't see any signs that it worked for anyone. Hell, in terms of Cruz, it seems like he pulled on some outside-the-organization help when he was really at the low point of his struggles at the plate. Maybe there's a behind the scenes relationship with Haines there too, and Cruz's declining chase rate and increased in-zone contact rate were both huge positives to end the season, but if a coach is going to be fired, he's my pick, not Shelton. It's also notable that he is a more recent hire, so maybe you ditch him and there's a minor league coach that you can promote, etc.