OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[DJ Spinoza]

Lol this is great

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm honestly conflicted about how I feel going into next year. On one hand, you have 3 very good players at 3 important positions between Reynolds, Hayes and Cruz. All 3 of those guys should be safe bets to put up 3-4 WAR next year, with Reynolds and Cruz having the potential to really pop off and go even higher next year. But beyond those 3, the offense is super barren. I think Suwinski is a decent starting RF and Castro is a decent starting 2B (although I like him substantially more at 3B than 2B), but that's literally all they have in terms of position players. I'm anticipating they trade Newman this off-season, so I'm not including him in the calculation.

I like their pitching staff going into next year, as I've already said. I'd like to make one veteran rotation addition, but I think that's more getting a mentor for the young guys than me thinking this team really needs more help in the rotation. Their bullpen needs help, but I think the bullpen is mostly a crapshoot anyway. But the bats are a clear and obvious weak point that need to be addressed.

I think they'll be well set at SS, 3B and CF and well enough set at RF and 2B. But that still leaves LF, 1B, DH and C as positions that absolutely need to be upgraded. I think you might be able to get something out of LF between Bae, Marcano, Smith-Njigba and Mitchell, but you absolutely can't fill the other 3 positions internally to start the season.

My off-season wish list would be:

1. Re-sign Perez to be the starting C and plan on Endy coming up halfway through next year. Perez and Endy as a catching tandem seems solid. If not Perez, maybe look at someone like Hedges or Barnhart in free agency.
2. Sign Mancini to fill one of the 1B role. It seems like Mancini was pretty good defensively at both 1B and LF last year, so I think that's a pretty reasonable guy to target for any of those roles. The position flexibility plus the DH makes that seem like a fairly safe bet. Mancini has stunk with the Astros and has a $10 million option year next year, so I don't know that they'd retain him.
3. Bring in some insurance for the LF spot so you're not relying fully on young guys to fill the spot. I think they really need a high average contact hitter in that role, considering who they have in other positions. Bae and Marcano look the part, but I'd rather not default to them as options. I'm also fine with putting Castro as the DH and having Newman play 2nd and fill this "contact hitter" role, if they don't trade Newman.
4. Bring in another Quintana type of veteran, but target a longer term deal instead of a 1 year reclamation project.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Autograph hounds have to be super annoying for players

 

[DanielPlainview]

Mancini as the 1B/DH/OF would be solid

 

[ChaosAgent]

I've always been a big Brubaker fan, but the reality is the guy had an ERA of 4.7 last year. He should be a #5 at most on a team that takes itself seriously. We need another 1-2 starters, one of whom needs to be of real quality.

Also, injuries.

 

[Gallatin]

Lol this is great

Davis can be a bit edgy for sure. I hear teammates love him or hate him.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

There actually is an ok bucket of pitchers who will cost some but won't be totally insane: Quintana, Walker, Stripling, Lorenzen, Manaea, Clevinger, and maybe Cueto if you want to squint. I think that's reason to be a little optimistic that we can bolster the rotation from outside, but I do think once you start adding multiple starting pitchers, you are putting up a lot of risky money as a small market team.

However it ends up shaking out, I hope we'll make a firm commitment to one specific player. This is one reason why I just want to see a reunion with Quintana, even if he's just a little bit older. I won't turn my nose up at improving however we can, but a one year contract for a pitcher is basically pointless because there's really no chance we make a WC run next year unless everything possible goes right and then some.

Stripling probably positioned himself really well heading into the market, and I imagine Walker will also be someone who would be in the more expensive group. Clevinger and Manaea might want one year deals in order to re-establish value. I think Lorenzen could be a pretty good play actually, but he has not stayed healthy and he's also from Anaheim, so I bet he is re-signed there.

For me, end of the day it's still Quintana, Mancini, extensions, and then whatever in terms of how the full market shakes out. It might be a weird year with so many high profile players being out there -- deGrom, Turner, probably Correa and Bogaerts... one thing I'd like to see for once is a really aggressive attempt to go after either our primary bat target or primary pitching target.

 

[DanielPlainview]

At the end of the day they need to score runs. Whatever they were doing this year wasn’t it

 

[Gallatin]

There actually is an ok bucket of pitchers who will cost some but won't be totally insane: Quintana, Walker, Stripling, Lorenzen, Manaea, Clevinger, and maybe Cueto if you want to squint. I think that's reason to be a little optimistic that we can bolster the rotation from outside, but I do think once you start adding multiple starting pitchers, you are putting up a lot of risky money as a small market team.

However it ends up shaking out, I hope we'll make a firm commitment to one specific player. This is one reason why I just want to see a reunion with Quintana, even if he's just a little bit older. I won't turn my nose up at improving however we can, but a one year contract for a pitcher is basically pointless because there's really no chance we make a WC run next year unless everything possible goes right and then some.

Stripling probably positioned himself really well heading into the market, and I imagine Walker will also be someone who would be in the more expensive group. Clevinger and Manaea might want one year deals in order to re-establish value. I think Lorenzen could be a pretty good play actually, but he has not stayed healthy and he's also from Anaheim, so I bet he is re-signed there.

For me, end of the day it's still Quintana, Mancini, extensions, and then whatever in terms of how the full market shakes out. It might be a weird year with so many high profile players being out there -- deGrom, Turner, probably Correa and Bogaerts... one thing I'd like to see for once is a really aggressive attempt to go after either our primary bat target or primary pitching target.

I would consider signing Quintana, Mancini, a good Lefty RP, and a good backup C as an excellent off-season. Sign Endy, or Cruz to a long-term deal, and you can't even ask for more given where we've been IMO.

Now you know my outline of the perfect off season. Yeah I'm all in on Endy at this point. He has the potential to be a Gold Glove Catcher IMO. I believe his floor is fairly high.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I agree, though the only thing I'd add is that I think the catcher situation is almost a foregone conclusion. I think Perez will re-sign unless he gets hurt playing winter ball or something and retires. He all but said he feels like he owes us another season, and I guess we wouldn't just kick him out, but he hung around with the team all season and was praised for his work during spring training. Have to assume he's the guy, and really, other than a trade, it's not like there are any better options in free agency.

I can dig the Endy optimism and would be fine signing him to an extension. For me, Cruz is the top priority, but who knows what the relationship is like or what he's looking for. The timing might be difficult for him, but guaranteed money might mean a lot to him and there is at least some floor / lots of leverage in terms of how the team control plays out.

An area where I am flip flopping is regarding a Reynolds extension. I think they should do it, but I am also of the mindset that it would not be the end of the world if they decided to prioritize extensions for players who are closer in an age range. I am bullish on Reynolds, but it's very possible that his team control years are his best ones. I think the mistake would be trading him at any point, since you just aren't going to recoup the talent and if that is the move, then it signals poor decision-making because he should have been traded last year.

But if we got something like a Cruz extension, an Endy extension, and some genuine investment in free agents, then I'm fine to punt on Reynolds extension possibilities again, and ultimately just to work on one year deals through the team control. It would not be great for the player if we rode it out and then did a qualifying offer, but I think that's the best thing for the team in the short/medium/long term.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Our boy doing stuff

 

[BHD]

Forget about 4-1. It was 8-1.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Buys out a year of free agency and has a club option for a 7th year at 22M. This seems like a modest risk to me, as it basically just gives them cost certainty. I guess it's good for the player that the team is not going to pay it's 5-win rookie starter a league minimum salary for 2 seasons, but Strider's profile is one that would worry me more if I were a Braves fan.

More generally, paying for a position player core seems like the best possible strategy in order to then look at the pitching on a more case by case basis. At some point I do think you also have to "risk" and invest in pitching, even when trying to go the cheap route.

It's probably worth saying that on a per-win basis, this is a coup for the Braves if Strider even comes close to maintaining this pace, even if he only pitches 130 innings a year. I guess you could squint here and see something like the model for a Contreras extension if he takes another big step forward next year. The more apt question might really be what to try with Keller, even if that has no real comparison to a longer extension like this. A lot less leverage, but given his ups and downs, maybe he'd take guaranteed money and sacrifice some FA years, making a good calculated bargain for a #2-3 anchor type. I kind of get the sense that the front office doesn't really believe in him, though (we shouldn't forget that he apparently picked up the two-seamer on advice from outside the org).

 

[Gallatin]

Buys out a year of free agency and has a club option for a 7th year at 22M. This seems like a modest risk to me, as it basically just gives them cost certainty. I guess it's good for the player that the team is not going to pay it's 5-win rookie starter a league minimum salary for 2 seasons, but Strider's profile is one that would worry me more if I were a Braves fan.

More generally, paying for a position player core seems like the best possible strategy in order to then look at the pitching on a more case by case basis. At some point I do think you also have to "risk" and invest in pitching, even when trying to go the cheap route.

It's probably worth saying that on a per-win basis, this is a coup for the Braves if Strider even comes close to maintaining this pace, even if he only pitches 130 innings a year. I guess you could squint here and see something like the model for a Contreras extension if he takes another big step forward next year. The more apt question might really be what to try with Keller, even if that has no real comparison to a longer extension like this. A lot less leverage, but given his ups and downs, maybe he'd take guaranteed money and sacrifice some FA years, making a good calculated bargain for a #2-3 anchor type. I kind of get the sense that the front office doesn't really believe in him, though (we shouldn't forget that he apparently picked up the two-seamer on advice from outside the org).

How fun would it be if we had the Atlanta market and a solid owner?

I have a hard time comparing us to such a situation, personally speaking.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't think it's useful to compare situations except in extremely tentative terms, whether that be Atlanta or anyone else. It's always apples to oranges.

With that said, I still do think that there's an organizational strategy to obsess over service time calculation which has an unclear influence on a player's development. Contreras is probably a pretty good case study for this, because it is as plain as day that he had no business pitching in AAA this season at all. A developmental plan that would have either seen him start in the MLB rotation or have a slow build-up process in extended spring training (to save innings) would have been a better way to go about 2022 for Contreras. If he struggled in MLB, he could always go back to AAA to refine something, but the team intentionally didn't set about on this path.

Instead, they were forced to throw him into the mix against their will due to poor depth. He then was plainly better than most everything they had and spent two portions of an important season wasting innings against inferior competition.

I don't think it has to be total doom and gloom with him, but the end result is that they managed to wrangle the extra year and avoid super two, with the prognosis that he's looked very good a lot of the time but will have to answer questions and take steps forward as he builds his innings further. It'd be a lot nicer to have 130 MLB innings under his belt than 95 MLB and 35 useless AAA innings. There's a scenario where he just pitches those innings in MLB to the tune of a nice 1.5 WAR rookie season and is still a candidate for a modest longer-term commitment this year.

Instead, it's a bit of a question for 2023, and presumably if he takes a step forward and puts up 2+ WAR, we'll either be interested in some kind of extension/cost certainty or play things out year by year. The biggest problem is the developmental question for me -- the service time game only makes sense when you have a solid core team and payroll to actually build from. I don't think it cost them with Roansy, but I think it's pretty open and shut that they mismanaged his situation in 2022.

 

[Gallatin]

I don't think it's useful to compare situations except in extremely tentative terms, whether that be Atlanta or anyone else. It's always apples to oranges.

With that said, I still do think that there's an organizational strategy to obsess over service time calculation which has an unclear influence on a player's development. Contreras is probably a pretty good case study for this, because it is as plain as day that he had no business pitching in AAA this season at all. A developmental plan that would have either seen him start in the MLB rotation or have a slow build-up process in extended spring training (to save innings) would have been a better way to go about 2022 for Contreras. If he struggled in MLB, he could always go back to AAA to refine something, but the team intentionally didn't set about on this path.

Instead, they were forced to throw him into the mix against their will due to poor depth. He then was plainly better than most everything they had and spent two portions of an important season wasting innings against inferior competition.

I don't think it has to be total doom and gloom with him, but the end result is that they managed to wrangle the extra year and avoid super two, with the prognosis that he's looked very good a lot of the time but will have to answer questions and take steps forward as he builds his innings further. It'd be a lot nicer to have 130 MLB innings under his belt than 95 MLB and 35 useless AAA innings. There's a scenario where he just pitches those innings in MLB to the tune of a nice 1.5 WAR rookie season and is still a candidate for a modest longer-term commitment this year.

Instead, it's a bit of a question for 2023, and presumably if he takes a step forward and puts up 2+ WAR, we'll either be interested in some kind of extension/cost certainty or play things out year by year. The biggest problem is the developmental question for me -- the service time game only makes sense when you have a solid core team and payroll to actually build from. I don't think it cost them with Roansy, but I think it's pretty open and shut that they mismanaged his situation in 2022.

Future me is happy and ecstatic the Bucs can now afford a 6th and 7th season of Contrares if he fully develops. Current me hates it almost as much as you do.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2023

MLB Trade Rumors projects 2023 arbitration salaries for all eligible players. Click for the full list of names and projections.

www.mlbtraderumors.com

MLBTR has its arbitration projections out:

Pirates (6)

• Robert Stephenson (5.049): $1.9MM
• Kevin Newman (4.046): $2.8MM
• Miguel Andujar (4.002): $1.7MM
• Duane Underwood Jr. (3.044): $1MM
• Mitch Keller (3.026): $2.4MM
• JT Brubaker (3.000): $2MM

I would assume that Stephenson, Newman, and Underwood are all borderline/non-tender cases. Stephenson pitched fairly well, so might be worth keeping around, but might also depend on other plans with the pen. That's really not a lot of money for Underwood (it's all chump change really), but probably better served elsewhere/the roster spot might be needed.

Newman probably played well enough to earn a roster spot, but it's a crowded field and that money can surely be used towards filling another need. I have to assume we'll pursue some kind of trade. Even if Bae rotates between OF and 2B, with Castro probably being the right choice as the starter, there's still Marcano and Castillo as cheap bench options and Gonzales/Peguero at least on the horizon as possibilities. Even if you assume Castillo doesn't keep a 40-man spot, it's still so crowded that I'd be surprised to see Newman back.

As to where he could be moved, that's a trickier guess, but maybe him performing fairly fine in a somewhat role coming off the bench will make him more appealing, since that's where he fits on any team that would acquire him. The Angels might not be a bad fit, though I don't think he's going to fetch much in a deal.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the question about Newman is a bit tough. I think Castro should be able to be the starting 2B and you have enough utility middle infielders already, so I don't really see a need for Newman. On the other side, Castro's defense at 2B is really not good and I'd much prefer him at 3rd than at 2nd. I think he'd be fine at 2nd, but I'd really like to see it before feeling confident about it.

The other thing to consider is that it seems like Castro is another low average power hitter and I think the Pirates really need some contact guys in the lineup. Cruz at SS and Castro at 2nd are both power hitters in usually contact hitter positions, so you need to get that good contact from another position. It's usually not super easy to find contact hitting 1B or C. I think I actually prefer Castro as DH and try to find a stronger defensive 2B who hits for contact.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, it might not be open and shut. It's also worth mentioning that there are basically no veterans at all, and although I don't really think this is a conversation worth pushing further, Newman would also cover SS and allow for Cruz to rest/DH some too. I think that what they might do is explore trade options and be willing to go into the season with Newman in the mix as the veteran MI around a revolving group of young players.

The tricky thing might be balancing the 40-man spots, but Peguero is already on. Gonzales actually doesn't have to be added until 2023, so it won't necessarily be a winter decision. I think Triolo will definitely be added, but Park is on and can easily be swapped. Might end up being a wait and see situation with the idea being to have lots of competition in spring training.

 

[Gallatin]

Mid-season folks were harshing on our Bucs development system, and the supposed lack of progress. Everyone was hurt or failing, it was the end of BC, the rebuild was failing, etc. You'all remember, it was everywhere, and in this thread pretty strong as well.

I put it down to frustration from having an awful year, with awful ownership, in an awful League. Let's move on and discuss what really happened.

In reality development is non-linear. But finishing strong is the most important thing. You have to show that progress to continue to move forward and to continue to earn that playing time.

The Bucs Development Team spent much of the year retraining their upper level prospects. For instance, they got Nick Gonzales to change his approach, even change his swing, and stop trying to hit home runs.

Now he plays within himself, and the K's have come down as the OPS skyrocketed. There was a difficult transition here, but it's successful. Excellent work by Nick, and excellent coaching by the Pirates to help him get there.

Quinn Priester developed a fairly devastating Sinker, and changed his style of attack once again. His 4-Seamer now plays up, they've found a way to address his biggest weakness. I particularly loved how he developed the low and away sinker to right-handers in September. That's no easy thing for a kid in his early twenties, to throw that pitch for strikes on the corner.

A ton of players in the system had similar seasons. A lot of guys finished strong. I want to discuss them this Fall. So fair warning, I'll be active. Today I'm thinking a lot about Bullpen arms...

Here's a good recap on some guys.

Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects: Five Notable Second Half Performances

The Pittsburgh Pirates saw these five minor league prospects have strong second halves of the 2022 campaign after decent first halves.

rumbunter.com

 

[Gallatin]

I remember discussing young Bucs pitchers Flowers, Florencio, & Florez back in 2020 when I jumped in here. While Florencio and Florez have not developed, J.C. Flowers looks close to realizing his dreams in the Bucs Bullpen, possibly next year.

We had a lot of guys finish strong. Ultimately I expect 2-3 of the following 2nd half warriors to make it in the Pittsburgh Pen over the next couple seasons; R Flowers, R Thomas, R Garcia, R Selby, L Samaniego, L Cruz, L Dombkowski. They all took real steps forward in the 2nd half, and there's another half dozen guys right behind them that have the stuff but haven't figured it out.

Ultimately Ortiz and or Oviedo may be the impact Relievers we need, but there's a lot of guys developing right now that might keep them in the starting lineup the next few years.

This is the deepest group of pitching prospects in general that I've seen with the Bucs. In addition to the many potential bullpen guys we've got the starters too in; Priester, Burrows, Ortiz at the top, Nicolas, Mlodzinski, Jones behind them, with Harrington, Jimenez, Chandler, Solometo, and hopefully Barco to follow.

Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects Season in Review: Colin Selby

Right-handed relief pitcher Colin Selby quietly put together a strong season in the minor leagues for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2022

rumbunter.com

Pittsburgh Pirates Prospect Season in Review: Cody Bolton

Pittsburgh Pirates pitching prospect Cody Bolton had a nice bounceback season after two lost campaigns, but where does he go from here?

rumbunter.com

Pittsburgh Pirates: Ways to Improve the Bullpen in 2023

After a ton of second half struggles, the Pittsburgh Pirates need to find some ways to improve the bullpen before the start of the 2023 season.

rumbunter.com

 

[Empoleon8771]

It's easy because I live in Seattle, but I am all in on the Mariner's bandwagon.

Crawford just hit an absolute bomb of a HR to put them up 5-2 on the Astros. Julio Rodriguez is special. 2-2 with a walk, triple and double so far today.

 

[Gallatin]

It's easy because I live in Seattle, but I am all in on the Mariner's bandwagon.

Crawford just hit an absolute bomb of a HR to put them up 5-2 on the Astros. Julio Rodriguez is special. 2-2 with a walk, triple and double so far today.

Congratulations to you

At least one of our group can enjoy some good baseball

 

[Gallatin]

Dejan K making some excellent points. Great short listen.

 

[ImporterExporter]

He's hit some tanks off very legitimate prospects....this time against Dave Bednar's brother.