I like the idea of picking up Sean Manaea a lot. It seems like some people are pointing at his 2022 season and complaining at the possibility (since SI and a few others have guessed we might sign him), but 1) the Pirates will never be snooping around the top 15-20 free agents or so; 2) there is variance from year to year with players, especially pitchers; and 3) from a quick glance, it seems like Manaea had consistency issues at least in part due to mechanics, which has Marin's name all over it.
The one caveat for me is that I don't see too much of a point in short-term deals, because even the most aggressively optimistic view at 2023 probably sees us flirting with 2nd in the division for some time, but likely not close to the WC race. There's some extent to which our situation with FAs is that we just can't be so picky, but getting guys for one year to then flip them is really spinning our wheels. A move like Choi is one thing, but we should be trying to find solutions that can help fill holes in 2023 and still be part of a better team in 2024. Maybe that makes Quintana the optimal target still, even if there's age risk, but the problem with him might again be that he has offers from teams with significantly better playoff hopes.
I think the big challenge is figuring out solutions that aren't too risky but that also short circuit the market or go outside the box. The success that the 2013-2015 run was built on involved both good luck with trades and really targeted FA acquisitions that I don't think is all that possible anymore. Outside of a small handful of teams like the Rockies and Royals, most front offices run on the same basic premises, to such an extent that the similarities in strategy practically amount to a kind of collusion when it comes to some free agents.
To give an example, I was listening to a breakdown of 2B performance from last year, and the discussion turned to what to expect from Brandon Drury in 2023. They (Eno Sarris and Derek Van Riper) were guessing that multiple teams would end up spitting out a kind of prove it, 1 year, 8 million type contract -- the kind of contract that teams which actually spend money are willing to dish out to a part-time player who can help out in a number of different ways.
Drury turned 30 at the end of the season, and he obviously had a career year, but he cooled down the stretch some and was in a great hitter's park. That said, even if he regresses somewhat, he's the kind of hitter that could help lengthen the lineup here, adding power from the right side and being able to split some time with Choi, spell guys at 2B and 3B, and play in the corners and DH. Steamer still likes him for 1.6 WAR, which isn't much, but we're still in a situation where we can replace negative WAR players with above average, competent players, which is why Choi is such a big step up on paper.
MLB Trade Rumors projects him for a 2 year, 18 M salary, which is still easily affordable given our commitments. Interestingly, they didn't include Mancini in their top-50 players, and I think that signals that he also won't have too much of a market. Haniger comes out towards the upper end in terms of projections, as they have him at 3/39, which is still a contract that wouldn't be all that detrimental if the team is willing to actually and sustainably increase payroll.
In any case, none of this is worth getting too focused on at this point in the offseason, but an aggressive GM who has been green lit to spend 25 or 30M or so has some options in the mid-tier that could help boost this team pretty fast, if they are actually willing to play prospects earlier (Steamer is really optimistic about Endy). MLBTR is way more aggressive on Manaea, and pitching always tends to be where MLB teams throw money, so I think as far as I'm concerned, I'm most hopeful that we'll take an aggressive path to an RH bat before anything else, and we can always see how pitching has shaken out later in the offseason.
