OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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I love this signing. Guy has been a professional hitter his entire career, hits lefties well, and plays a solid first base.

I don't know what his mentor-ing skillset is, but I think certainly a Latin American vet who knows how to work the count can't hurt in the development of Endy, Castro and of course O'Neil Cruz.

I think also this is our last significant offensive add. Our starting outfield as of now is Reynolds, Bae and Suwinski. I'd think we need one more righty bat in case Suwinski strikes out 50% of the time against lefties, but I don't imagine it will be a significant add.
 
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I love this signing. Guy has been a professional hitter his entire career, hits lefties well, and plays a solid first base.

I don't know what his mentor-ing skillset is, but I think certainly a Latin American vet who knows how to work the count can't hurt in the development of Endy, Castro and of course O'Neil Cruz.

I think also this is our last significant offensive add. Our starting outfield as of now is Reynolds, Bae and Suwinski. I'd think we need one more righty bat in case Suwinski strikes out 50% of the time against lefties, but I don't imagine it will be a significant add.
BUT How good of a Guitarist is he
 
Santana is a great pickup and I again like the proactive shift this offseason. I think he's a good bet to have a bounce back season, and getting another veteran in the lineup will really help. Both he and Choi take very good at bats and will take a walk -- just as an example, this makes a Jack Suwinski type player much more palatable as your 6th or 7th hitter.

Now let's see what's in store at pitcher.
 
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Not only is Choi and Santana a pretty big upgrade over what we put out there at 1B, the shift being banned next year should only help both of them improve on their #s given the analytics being thrown around.

Pure platoon but on paper this is a sign they're going to actually try and win in 2023.
 
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Yeah, I think it leans a little bit more towards pure 2023 upgrade than it does any kind of calculated buy and flip type situation. Between Choi and Santana, we're investing 11-12M into 1B/DH. There's a chance that one or both click and can be moved at the deadline, but even granting that Santana is a true veteran bat, they aren't the kind of guys that are going to bring much in terms of prospects even in good years.

Choi and especially Santana are good clubhouse guys, too. I'll be a little interested to see what Mancini ends up getting, since I imagine he won't get a guaranteed salary that's for more than what they'll make combined, though maybe he'll get multiple years.
 

having-a-good-time-guitarist.gif
 
It's strange that some people (not here) seem to be turning their nose up at veteran producers. Even with no bounce back, Santana just got a contract that basically tracks exactly with what he produced in 2022. It's just kind of... how it works when you actually sign free agents.

I do wonder if we might be done with bats, though there was BC's comment about potentially bringing in a 2B option from outside the organization, and obviously neither of Choi or Santana are going to suit up there. I think there needs to be some element of competition for spots in spring training. I tend to think that Castro should have the inside track on the job but can also see not just handing it to him.

The way I see it, there are something like 3.5 open spots, setting catcher aside since that will have to be filled in some way externally. There's 2B, 2 OF spots, and some DH ABs at least -- as things stand, I'd count on Santana or Choi to get time there when the other is the 1B, though obviously both are veterans and will benefit from days off. Unless I am forgetting someone off the top of my head, the primary players who will cover those 3.5-4 spots are Castro, Bae, Suwinski, Andujar, and I suppose Mitchell, Marcano, Smith-Njigba, and Castillo as a second tier of possibles.

One more good bat would really help bolster that situation and the lineup in general. I'm a broken record with Drury, but even with 1B mostly covered, he checks the right boxes for me, since he keeps some flexibility throughout the roster and further bolsters things against LHP. I think he's also in that sweet spot of being attainable via some aggression. The OF market is going to be slow to move and I doubt we're going to be in the mix for for anybody -- there are too many teams looking.

The only thing is that Drury has not really played a lot in the OF, and I think it's corner OF where we need the biggest boost. There's some chance that Bae or even Swaggerty becomes a good everyday option for LF/CF, but getting another spot besides Reynolds nailed down and then having a platoon of Suwinski/Andujar in the other corner is the best scenario on paper. Maybe a trade is still possible. The nice thing is that it's very early in the offseason. Lots of ground to cover, but credit where it's due in that BC is living up to his comments about urgency from last year.
 
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I’m all for the Santana addition. I imagine we’ll see both Choi and Santana playing fairly often, with one at DH and one at 1B, but that’s more of a lack of viable DH bats on the roster than anything else.

My guess would be that Santana plays almost every day, since they’re so starved for righty bats, and Choi sits regularly against lefties for someone like Andujar.

My bet for the lineup would be something like Santana as the cleanup hitter against both righties and lefties, while Choi is batting 5th against righties and low in the lineup or not in the lineup against lefties.

Just bring in Perez and I’m happy with the bats going into the year. Have Marcano, Bae and Castillo battle it out for the LF and 2B spot and the rest is pretty much set.
 
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I forgot about Castro, who will almost definitely be the starting 2B entering next year. I’m not crazy about his defense at 2nd and like him way more at 3rd than 2nd defensively, but he can clearly play 2nd and they don’t really have any clear better alternatives.

With Santana signed, I think the Pirates are currently sitting with:
  1. Cruz (SS)
  2. Hayes (3B)
  3. Reynolds (CF)
  4. Santana (DH)
  5. Choi/Andujar (1B)
  6. Suwinski (RF)
  7. Castro (2B)
  8. Marcano (LF)
  9. Starting C (C)
Extras: Castillo (super utility), Andujar (1B platoon with Choi and utility OF) and backup C

They definitely need to sign a starting catcher and arguably need to bring in a backup catcher as well, depending on what you think of Sanchez. But overall, I like the total improvement to the bats with this lineup.
 
I'd give the edge to Bae over Marcano for a starting job, and it's possible he could play some CF and push Reynolds back to his old stomping ground in LF, but it's still a little early to make guesses. I think Andujar is more likely to split his time between an OF corner and DH, assuming he hits well enough to get regular playing time.

And one more name I probably should have thrown into the mix in the second tier is Triolo -- he's probably in the plans for 2023 in some way, even if he may not initially make the team. The disappointing thing with him is that he's a defensive wizard in addition to having the RH bat, but it doesn't seem like he's very comfortable at SS. I wonder a bit if that's an area we'll try and get him more reps at in AAA before a callup, though of course we also have Peguero in the pipeline and Bae can play SS too. I'm totally fine with Cruz getting 162 starts at SS if he's healthy all year, but it's obviously a position where you need a backup on the roster, especially given how Shelton likes to play matchups and be aggressive (which, while annoying at times, from the cold distance of the offseason I think is a good thing).

It's my own fault for reading the comments section at MLBTR but I can't really understand why there's negativity towards this move, other than that people like to fetishize younger players and are dismissive of veterans. The lack of leadership in the clubhouse without Quintana is glaring, and even from a cold analytic perspective, the team is likely upgrading a position that got them negative value in 2022 to something like 2ish WAR in 2023, with the potential for more than that if there is some positive regression.

The path to more success for this team lies with the potential impact of players already on the roster like Cruz, Reynolds, and Keller, along with possible futures impact in Endy and a group of others. But getting established MLB veterans to supplement the roster is world's better than endless reclamation project who clogs up playing time for 6 weeks and amounts to nothing, even if those established veterans are just "average" MLB players.


As we go forward, obviously catcher needs to be addressed, and I think SP is the biggest immediate need. The bigger question is still probably how serious we are about winning with Reynolds, since if we're only going to make small strides, there is still some argument to maximizing his value while you still can. I hate the trap of the either/or logic that these kinds of things always fall into, especially because I think if any trade happens between now and opening day, then it should have happened even earlier for an even better return, but the fact still remains that we're making necessary, but incremental and short-term, improvements to the 2023 team.

If BC follows through on his word and signs a SP to a multi-year contract, then the move in the right direction looks even more committed and we can go from there. Maybe it's still a scenario where you assess how the team is playing at the deadline and what kind of returns are available for rentals, but there's still a core in place that has demonstratively improved, and the 11-12M being spent on short-term options this year (though to be cynical and fair, it should be noted that if any trades happen, that number goes down) can be repurposed and then some for 2024.

We'll see, but the SP and a multi-year commitment are probably the first big thing I'm looking for, and the second is a shift in development strategy that opens up a real possibility for Endy to make the team out of spring training. I'd like to see that possibility with Perez returning as the primary option, though the one thing I wonder about in that scenario is Endy's bat regularly being in the lineup. It would be an interesting and more efficient use of the roster to have your backup C also be a utility player and DH, and there are some limited examples of this I can think of (Grandal comes to mind), but I still wonder if you would want a third catcher. Maybe a taxi squad makes the question less relevant, or you just go with it. There's also the chance that Perez gets hurt again, but I don't really think there's a true way around the situation. Signing two veteran catchers would probably be too far in terms of actually blocking Endy. If his bat plays, the latest he should be up is mid/late-May.
 
To try and be a bit more succinct, I think the upside to another bat is is that it presses the young players to really earn playing time and also does stuff like push Hayes to the bottom third of the order. With a better middle of the order, maybe Hayes' palpable lack of power will play better at the top of the order, but more solid bats also puts some pressure on him to perform as well.

For example:

Cruz SS
Reynolds CF
Santana DH
Choi 1B
Drury LF
Suwinski RF
Hayes 3B
Castro/Bae 2B
Catcher

Obviously some tweaks are possible depending on pitching matchups and performance. For example, maybe the right catcher hits 7th in this lineup and you have Hayes and Bae 8th and 9th, capable of turning the lineup over with some speed for Cruz and Reynolds to work with.

Santana's contact and on-base skills make him a good candidate to hit in the first inning IMO, though maybe you want to be careful about speed. Drury is a little too much in the DH/1B/2B bucket, so I'd be surprised if we signed him (I don't know if he could be a regular LF in PNC Park, or if Suwinski/Andujar would be cut out for that defensively), but it's not a bad thing to have 2-3 guys on the bench who you regularly rotate into the lineups.

Finally, I guess an obvious "RH OF" option out there would be Cutch, and I'd be totally fine with it, but I don't know that he really does much for a regular option in LF at this point in his career. Another veteran who would be a dream signing is Brantley, but it's probably not even worth the fantasy, since he'll be able to take his pick from multiple contenders. Maybe at a stretch, a ballsy 2 year guarantee would appeal to him, as having him and Santana both around for young hitters to learn from would be a pretty dramatic difference from 2022. I bet we'll probably shift focus to SP, which is the right move, but I think LF is still a big remaining hole. Maybe we're banking on Bae to step up and be a big part of the 2023 team. Would have been nice to see him for more than a handful of games last year...
 
It's strange that some people (not here) seem to be turning their nose up at veteran producers. Even with no bounce back, Santana just got a contract that basically tracks exactly with what he produced in 2022. It's just kind of... how it works when you actually sign free agents.

I'd give the edge to Bae over Marcano for a starting job, and it's possible he could play some CF and push Reynolds back to his old stomping ground in LF, but it's still a little early to make guesses. I think Andujar is more likely to split his time between an OF corner and DH, assuming he hits well enough to get regular playing time.

And one more name I probably should have thrown into the mix in the second tier is Triolo -- he's probably in the plans for 2023 in some way, even if he may not initially make the team. The disappointing thing with him is that he's a defensive wizard in addition to having the RH bat, but it doesn't seem like he's very comfortable at SS. I wonder a bit if that's an area we'll try and get him more reps at in AAA before a callup, though of course we also have Peguero in the pipeline and Bae can play SS too. I'm totally fine with Cruz getting 162 starts at SS if he's healthy all year, but it's obviously a position where you need a backup on the roster, especially given how Shelton likes to play matchups and be aggressive (which, while annoying at times, from the cold distance of the offseason I think is a good thing).

It's my own fault for reading the comments section at MLBTR but I can't really understand why there's negativity towards this move, other than that people like to fetishize younger players and are dismissive of veterans. The lack of leadership in the clubhouse without Quintana is glaring, and even from a cold analytic perspective, the team is likely upgrading a position that got them negative value in 2022 to something like 2ish WAR in 2023, with the potential for more than that if there is some positive regression.

The path to more success for this team lies with the potential impact of players already on the roster like Cruz, Reynolds, and Keller, along with possible futures impact in Endy and a group of others. But getting established MLB veterans to supplement the roster is world's better than endless reclamation project who clogs up playing time for 6 weeks and amounts to nothing, even if those established veterans are just "average" MLB players.


As we go forward, obviously catcher needs to be addressed, and I think SP is the biggest immediate need. The bigger question is still probably how serious we are about winning with Reynolds, since if we're only going to make small strides, there is still some argument to maximizing his value while you still can. I hate the trap of the either/or logic that these kinds of things always fall into, especially because I think if any trade happens between now and opening day, then it should have happened even earlier for an even better return, but the fact still remains that we're making necessary, but incremental and short-term, improvements to the 2023 team.

If BC follows through on his word and signs a SP to a multi-year contract, then the move in the right direction looks even more committed and we can go from there. Maybe it's still a scenario where you assess how the team is playing at the deadline and what kind of returns are available for rentals, but there's still a core in place that has demonstratively improved, and the 11-12M being spent on short-term options this year (though to be cynical and fair, it should be noted that if any trades happen, that number goes down) can be repurposed and then some for 2024.

We'll see, but the SP and a multi-year commitment are probably the first big thing I'm looking for, and the second is a shift in development strategy that opens up a real possibility for Endy to make the team out of spring training. I'd like to see that possibility with Perez returning as the primary option, though the one thing I wonder about in that scenario is Endy's bat regularly being in the lineup. It would be an interesting and more efficient use of the roster to have your backup C also be a utility player and DH, and there are some limited examples of this I can think of (Grandal comes to mind), but I still wonder if you would want a third catcher. Maybe a taxi squad makes the question less relevant, or you just go with it. There's also the chance that Perez gets hurt again, but I don't really think there's a true way around the situation. Signing two veteran catchers would probably be too far in terms of actually blocking Endy. If his bat plays, the latest he should be up is mid/late-May.
While I'm not negative about the move, I think there are reasons not to be as OH MY GOD WE ARE ALL IN as so many are and it's not because of "festishizing" young players. His OPS+ the last 3 seasons were 93, 81, and 100. His bWAR was 1.1, -0.2, and 0.6. At age 37 that's probably not going to turn back around, and if we are all banking on doing away with shifts to help improve all our hitters, I guess we have to add a half a run to all of our pitchers ERA's at the same time (and probably more since Pirates' pitchers don't strike many guys out). Santana is also extraordinarily streaky, so we will be in for some hot streaks but also several 3-for-26 weeks.

It's also a question to me of what is the goal. If you think adding Santana adds 1-2 wins this season and you win 68 instead of 66 or 74 instead of 72, I don't really see the objective. Adding guys who will be on the team in 3-5 years would seem 100x more beneficial to me, and if you're going to spend money anywhere, adding a legit SP would make far more sense than having 4 1B/DH options.

The move in of itself is fine. I'd rather pay the money to a competent major league player than be profits to Bob Nutting, and it's not like any free agent with good options is going to come here. But while you don't understand the negativity about the move, I'm equally baffled as to the euphoria about it on the other side. This really doesn't move the needle much one way or the other, it doesn't impact the next good Pirates team, and I think there are other moves that would have made more sense than this one. But yes, if we are measuring transactions as to whether he's better than Michael Chavis and Yoshi, he is. Win.
 
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While I'm not negative about the move, I think there are reasons not to be as OH MY GOD WE ARE ALL IN as so many are and it's not because of "festishizing" young players. His OPS+ the last 3 seasons were 93, 81, and 100. His bWAR was 1.1, -0.2, and 0.6. At age 37 that's probably not going to turn back around, and if we are all banking on doing away with shifts to help improve all our hitters, I guess we have to add a half a run to all of our pitchers ERA's at the same time (and probably more since Pirates' pitchers don't strike many guys out). Santana is also extraordinarily streaky, so we will be in for some hot streaks but also several 3-for-26 weeks.

It's also a question to me of what is the goal. If you think adding Santana adds 1-2 wins this season and you win 68 instead of 66 or 74 instead of 72, I don't really see the objective. Adding guys who will be on the team in 3-5 years would seem 100x more beneficial to me, and if you're going to spend money anywhere, adding a legit SP would make far more sense than having 4 1B/DH options.

The move in of itself is fine. I'd rather pay the money to a competent major league player than be profits to Bob Nutting, and it's not like any free agent with good options is going to come here. But while you don't understand the negativity about the move, I'm equally baffled as to the euphoria about it on the other side. This really doesn't move the needle much one way or the other, it doesn't impact the next good Pirates team, and I think there are other moves that would have made more sense than this one. But yes, if we are measuring transactions as to whether he's better than Michael Chavis and Yoshi, he is. Win.

Who is saying that?
 
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I have no clue how anyone can interpret the happiness from signing Santana as acting like this team is all in. Saying "I'm happy this team is making moves to improve in 2023" is saying just that.
 


I mean, that's one example, but anyone who is not seeing rather irrational exuberance (the same as they are seeing the same "festishization" and criticism on the negative side) over a move that's really not all that significant in either the short or long term is being willfully blind to it. And really, if the only takeaway from my response to the 29129 words of DJ is that I overstate the level of enthusiasm about the signing, you're missing the point entirely.
 
I too don't really see much evidence that anyone is "irrationally exuberant" over Santana, but I also don't disagree that the Santana signing is not hugely significant. However, the current offseason is still young, and we don't know the exact plans for how they intend to deploy the new acquisitions or what else might be in the cards. Some kind of platoon situation might squeeze 2.5 or so WAR out of a position that was a complete void last year, which is not nothing.

It's also a fairly significant departure from what had been the status quo under Cherington to acquire a player in his final arbitration year and another for 6.7M rather than churn and burn extreme long shots. It's fair to point out that this is a low bar to clear, but I think it's also a bit besides the main point that they have taken quick measures to address an organizational weak point with upwards of 10-11M on a short-term solution.

I don't really like the defeatist logic that attempts to improve are not worth that much if they aren't hugely and obviously significant on paper. I don't think this is the case with Mr. B, but that kind of thinking is one of the things that allows MLB teams to just choose not to be competitive entirely. Further, there's at least the chance of something more than what's expected happening when your team is decent instead of horrible. That's the major reason I've been ok with the early offseason moves, which have been a departure from the frustrating, mealy-mouthed old school teardown and tank that Cherington has otherwise pretty much tried to do up until this point. It signals a change in direction, and even setting aside everything else, I would rather watch a team win 75 games than 70, and so on.

We'll see what else happens, if anything. There's a ton of offseason left to go and I presume several moves that are still probably in the cards. If the team adds a pitcher and maybe a surprising prospect swap or other trade, they might be in that fringe-.500 type of range, and those kinds of teams can become more interesting if they get some good breaks and avoid the nose dives we've seen so often. I think one way to help avoid those kinds of slides is by not having 3-4 (or more) completely empty spots in the lineup over half the time, and right now a healthy roster at least looks like it's positioned for that much.
 
Imo Santana and Choi arent needle movers in any significant fashion.

But going into this season they have 2 legitimate major leaguers that can play 1b which is 2 more than they had going into last season. So it aint nothing either
 
Choi and Santana are just rentals they hope look good and they flip at the deadline. If watching professional hitters help Hayes and Cruz and the young guys it’s a great investment
 
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Per source, Pirates have "genuine interest" in free-agent RHP Kyle Gibson and the two sides recently talked via a video call.

Last season, Gibson was second on the Phillies’ staff with 31 starts and went 10-8 with a 5.05 ERA. A 5+ ERA huh Color me Vomit
 
I don't have a subscription to the Athletic because I can't stomach Biertempfel, but I saw some screenshots which said that the Pirates also have interest in a reunion with Quintana, which is definitely significant news, as well as Gallo.

I think Quintana is the best case scenario with remaining additions. My assumption is he'll go to a contender, with the one possible caveat being that a guaranteed third year might give him enough of a reason to make a return. It's impossible to say without knowing what he's looking for, but he's a veteran who hasn't won a World Series, and so if that's the top priority, we're just going to be out .The other wrinkle with Quintana that I think is hard to anticipate is that even beyond questions of whether and to what extent he's in a late career resurgence, he might have sneaky value for bigger payroll teams as someone who will eat a lot of innings in a relatively decent way, even if he regresses a little bit. I guess that's where he faltered with the Angels, but if a team buys into him pitching 180 solid innings for a couple of years, that's insanely valuable even if you aren't banking on him to be a playoff starter, etc.

I was actually thinking that Gallo might be a good dice roll OF, moreso than Bellinger who is going to get a bunch of offers and may even end up getting close to the QO amount on a one-year deal. Gallo is even more of a gamble, but he can provide big time power and is capable of good defense in LF.

The potential "trouble" there also speaks to what I take to be @MrBrightside's main point from above, which is that one year stopgaps can only mean so much. This is also why I am not as gung ho about Manaea, because he probably signs a one-year deal and even though I think the best case scenario with health, good luck, and a few more signings is that we can flirt with .500 and potentially get into the WC mix, that's a real stretch, and then depending on the circumstances, you are back to square one with needing to supplement the roster again.

That said, if we are spending 10-11M on the 1B/DH stopgaps and then we spend another 20M or so on an OF like Gallo and a pitcher like Manaea, I'm not going to complain and at least potentially that sets a precedent for 25-30M or more to again be invested in a 2024 team that should be even better with its internal development, but it obviously goes without saying that those are gigantic ifs that no one should believe until they see.

I'm not quite as hot on Gibson, but he's probably a competent mid-rotation innings eater in the NL Central, so I wouldn't turn my nose up at it, and I assume Marin has a relationship with him.
 
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