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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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If the Pirates bring in all of Gibson, Quintana, Gallo and a FA catcher in addition to Santana and Choi, I think that would be the largest net additions the Pirates have made in an off-season to their MLB team.

A starting rotation of Quintana, Contreras, Keller, Gibson and Brubaker may not be terrific, but it's a shitload better than anything they've had in a long time :laugh:
 
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The more I think about Gallo, the more I think he's pure upside and opportunity to such an extent that you might be able to gamble on more of deal with a club option in it rather than a one-year deal. Bellinger is a different kind of change of scenery candidate because he's had an MVP type season and the single season upside is so high.

Gallo's upside is three true outcomes and a bunch of HRs. He chased more last year which wiped out most of the positive impact in his game, and so it's doubtful that he'll be highly sought after. For that reason, he might wait for the dust to settle a little bit in order to see where the best opportunity is, but that's also risky for him. In Pittsburgh, he would have fringe prospect types to beat out in a place that can be friendly to his LH swing.

I don't know that I'd love it, but I don't see too many obvious options in free agency. I like the idea more if there's a club option attached with some performance benchmarks or something -- basically take a flier on solid corner OF defense and big power. Could pay off if you get a decent season and a good season out of him. I don't think he's as appealing as a pure one year flier/buy low and flip type candidate. I assume he's also looking for a one-year deal to re-establish value and try the market again, but I think the kind of player he is even at the top of his game is pretty clear.
 


Kinda interesting that Mackey ran a basic boilerplate story with FA SP options today, since he's usually the beat writer who is actually sourced and reporting things first.
 
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Id rather have Quintana and/or Eflin but Gibson is at least a competent innings eater.

Perez should be brought back.

Gallo is an interesting stop gap option. He has the upside to bring a real return back if he pops for half a season.

Throw the rest of your resources at relief pitchers with upside. They are usually more cost effective options whos performance is the least predictable. But if your get a handful a few should work out.
 
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WheresRamziAbid said:
Id rather have Quintana and/or Eflin but Gibson is at least a competent innings eater.

Perez should be brought back.

Gallo is an interesting stop gap option. He has the upside to bring a real return back if he pops for half a season.

Throw the rest of your resources at relief pitchers with upside. They are usually more cost effective options whos performance is the least predictable. But if your get a handful a few should work out.
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It sounds like the Pirates want both Gibson and Quintana, not one or the other. I don't think both serve the same role because Quintana is a lefty and Gibson is a righty.

I imagine that Quintana would get like a 2-3 year deal at about $10 million a year and Gibson would come in on a 1 year deal at about $5 million. Gibson will fill the veteran inning eater at the back of the rotation role and Quintana will give them a legit lefty arm at the top of their rotation.
 
I was doing some clicking around last night and remembered that one of the MLBTR writers made the bold prediction of us signing Benintendi at 4/56. I am still skeptical about either happening, but that and Quintana for 3 years would even more decisively signal a change in course for the team.

It's easy to underrate how atrocious the payroll situation has gotten. There is really no excuse to be under the 75-80M range even in so-called lean years, IMO. From everything we know about MLB teams, that type of payroll still has the owner raking in money. The Pirates are currently sitting at about 55M, so obviously adding two players who make in the 10-15M range per year would really spike the payroll relative to the last few, but granting that, I think you still have to ask about the bigger picture.

The payroll needs to pushed even further than that to field a competitive team, and the situation is basically pretty straightforward for the next 4-6 years in terms of a big potential wave of cheap talent that has to be developed through the system, but very few big long-term commitments. Even factoring in the chance of Cruz and Reynolds' extensions, the payroll can easily absorb a couple of mid-tier FA options on 3-4 year deals and never really go above 100-110, which is still on the low end.


Setting all that aside, Benintendi is an interesting case because he's also a safe floor type player. He's young for a free agent and has the kind of skillset that doesn't deteriorate rapidly. He plays good defense and can easily be an anchor in the top part of the batting order. The power nose dive might be alarming, since there's a decent difference between a guy who can hit 15+ HRs and someone who can't hit more than 5, but I think it's an ok risk to bank on coming back.

Everyone has rightly been focused on RH bats for balance, but I think with Santana in the fold, there's now enough that it won't be an enormous weakness. Benintendi is as good an opportunity as any to pay for an above average player in free agency who other teams might not prioritize and who also has a fairly safe floor with a pretty decent ceiling that is otherwise going to be inaccessible for us. I think SP is the more obvious need, but there were already some rumors that BC might have been interested in trading for Benintendi since he drafted him, and if push came to shove, I'd be totally fine with the one shocker mid-level signing being Benintendi for LF and then something like a one-year deal for Gibson and maybe some other fliers.

Put otherwise, I'd much rather hunt for the longer-term horizon with Benintendi than the short-term boost of someone like Gallo. Benintendi would also add the same kind of low strikeout and/or high walk rate that Santana and Choi provide, so I think the trickle effect on the lineup would really be something.
 
Guys like Santana sign here because they know by the trade deadline they will be on a contender. The Pirates sign guys like that to try and squeeze any value out of them that they can. It’s not a move that shows they are actually trying to win next season
 
I mean, I hope to be proven wrong, but I'd be absolutely stunned if they signed both Gibson AND Quintana. It would be such a sea change that I'll have to see it to believe as it seems a lot of wishcasting.

As for Gibson, there is no worse phrase in sports than "innings eater." A lot of guys can throw innings. The value and effectiveness of the innings thrown matters a lot more than the quantity, and while it's awesome that Gibson has been healthy the last few years, are we really going to be excited by investing in a guy who is 35 and has had one half of a good season since 2018? Gibson has a negative WPA the last two seasons. The Phillies thought so much of him he pitched 2.1 innings in 17 playoff games and they were all in mop-up time. It's like this organization has set the the bar so low that everyone is thrilled by signing anyone that they've ever heard of. I'd much rather see Oviedo and Ortiz get a look than watch Gibson eat a bunch of innings by going 8-14 with a 5.23 ERA.

Spend the money on longer-term players with upside, not this kind of crap. Benintendi, for example, would be so superior to Santana and Gibson for so many reasons.
 
I agree re: Gibson as if he's the main SP acquisition, it's underwhelming. I would be floored if this is how it went down, but the only way I'd be ok with that kind of setup is if we did do something like sign Benintendi or Haniger for the OF (or I suppose Mancini, but I see him more as 1B/DH + some OF, so I doubt he'd be looked at now). Then we bring in someone who is clearly part of the solution beyond 2023, and I'm less worried about cutting corners with pitching, though I do think Gibson's ERA in the NL Central could end up in the low/mid-4s.

No matter how you slice it, I think the best case scenario heading into the 2023 season is a team that is ticketed for 75ish wins on paper and might be able to do more than that if things go well. Benintendi + Quintana or something similar would be a true, genuine change of course, but even if that happened plus a few more minor signings, I think that's where things settle in. I don't think there's some linear path between individual player WAR and a team's record, but with multiple positions shored up, it's still a team that needs to make sure and avoid long slides and/or big injuries. The path to flirting with .500 or the WC race rests with Reynolds and Cruz, and perhaps to an extent Hayes finally reworking his approach in order to unlock the underlying skills that he has.

As for Santana, I don't really think a 7M investment in the worst position that has no true internal candidates is anything to get too worked up over one way or the other. If he gets traded, it will be because the team has dropped way out of it again, and even in that scenario, the kind of team that might be looking for him is a team that is on the fringe of the race and doesn't want to sacrifice significant assets. Santana was brought in because he's a good defender, veteran leader, and someone who will help balance the lineup against LHP. He's an investment to help the young players and help the 2023 team as much as possible, but at the end of the day, the 2022 team lost 100 games. There's only so much improvement that is going to happen in 2023 no matter what.
 
Benentendi at 4/56 would be really weird to me because it both seems cheap and also not really worth it for the Pirates. I think Benentendi is a solid 3-4 WAR player per season, although he has had some injury issues over his career. It's a clear improvement and $14 million for that level of production is completely reasonable in free agency. I just don't know that the Pirates should be spending money in that way.

He'd be an improvement and the cost isn't prohibitive, I just don't know that I'd want to be spending money that kind of way with the Pirates just because of how little they're willing to spend.
 
I don't think it's worth getting hung up on Benintendi specifically, but it's a good barometer for how much of the lip service about raising payroll when the time comes is actually going to pan out. My gloss is that despite our various disagreements, most thread regulars would say that building towards a better team is at least one year overdue, with 2022 being a pretty wasted season outside of a couple of bright spots.

There aren't a lot of payroll commitments, so Benintendi at something like 14M per year would not really drive the baseline payroll up all that much. Even if you just bank on 0 successful extensions, then Cruz and basically any other prospect don't even start to hit arbitration until 2026, which would be the last year of a 4-year contract given out this winter. In theory, we could keep Reynolds through his arbitration years and then QO him rather than trade him (separate issue, but my take is that if we aren't extending him, this is the better move over trading him at this point), but even that is only going to cost so much for 2024 and 2025.

The one wrinkle might be pitching. Keller and Brubaker are both starting arbitration now and under control through 2025. I doubt extensions are in the cards, unless maybe you attempt to get Keller's arbitration years under cost control and then have an additional year or two, but guaranteeing money to a pitcher over 4-5 years is also a risk. There's talent coming, but it's an open question whether guys like Contreras and Burrows will really be starters who can shoulder a lot of innings reasonably well, which is where Keller at least is right now.

Quintana is still my top pick because I think he will age fairly well for 3 years and give so much stability and veteran leadership. The hopium for me is that he seemed to genuinely really like pitching here, but I assume he has the personality where he'd be like that anywhere, and that he'll get a decently high AAV over 2 years or something to pitch for a contender. There's a little bit more risk attached to it, but I think Stripling would be worth investing in as a mid-rotation stabilizer. I'm hoping to see us attached to him, but either way, the winter meetings look like they might be interesting for us, and there's also the matter of the draft order being decided a week from today.
 
Seems like the speculation is that some kind of trade might be in the works, since no corresponding move was announced for Santana to clear a 40-man spot. Alex Stumpf pointed out that the deal was just a physical away on Friday, so the delay in announcing + the delay in a corresponding move does seem to give that idea some legs. The other option would be that they are trying to contact someone internally to let them know they are DFA'd before it goes public.

I could see a surprise minor player swap, but not sure that kind of deal would be hung up if the speculation is right. On the 40-man, the two players that stand out as potential trade chips are Peguero and Bae. However, the other wrinkle with any trade is that if you get a player back who needs to go on the 40-man, it just kicks the can a little bit.

Hard to say, but I think it's reasonable to guess that another move is coming. Apparently we'll know more by tonight.
 



It's just talk until he follows through with it, but damn I think the Pirates are at the "okay, now we need to stop sucking" stage in the eyes of the management. Or at least "we need to start sucking less".
 
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Yeah, as always some of it is GM speak, but he's been saying better things and starting to follow them up with actions since taking responsibility for the step backwards in 2022. I think it's reasonable to say that it's still half measures until he follows through on the stated intention of signing a SP to a multi-year deal (or I suppose a position player, but glancing at the options, Benintendi honestly seems like the only theoretical fit there).

Even with a catcher and some lower cost options brought in, I would guess we're still looking at 7-10M more in payroll for next year. That number should be closer to 15-20M, and a mid-tier guy who fits into the next 3 years will make rooting for a .500 season and some surprises a little more palatable.

One thing that never seems like it's going to change under this FO is taking their sweet time where deadlines are concerned. The corresponding move for Santana is supposed to come tonight, but who knows at this point. They have to be working some angle
 
I really hope we bring Quintana back. We need a lefty.

Aside from that...eh, I mean I think this could be a 75-win team but I thought that last year.
I think we have a marginally better Cruz (Alvarez '2012 but playing short = 4 wins), Bae provides a real spark in CF and Endy comes up and mashes (he'll be our best player next August-September).

Pitching-wise I think Roansy, Ortiz and whichever acquisition carry us. Priester will start rough but have a good last few starts
 
I think I am starting to flip flop from pitching to another batter, specifically Benintendi. That solves something that's not quite a big problem but definitely a roster weakness, and shows commitment for the years to come as well. I am optimistic about Bae in terms of performance and perhaps as a kind of sneaky super utility guy, who moves between OF and middle infield as needed. Benintendi would just stabilize the whole offense quite a bit, and create more of a permanent platoon situation with the corner/DH guys like Suwinski, Andujar, Santana, and Choi.

I'm still all about Quintana, but if we got some (totally modest, in reality if it were not the Pirates) fantasy-land scenario of Benintendi, Wacha for two years, and Manaea on a bounce back contract, I'd be beyond satisfied.


It's definitely now a little weird that comments were made about a corresponding move last night for Santana and it's 11am with still nothing. Even with how secretive and slow the Pirates can be with something as simple as a lineup, it seems like something is up. My most speculative guess is that we're trying to trade middle infielders to Arizona or Minnesota for one of the OFs.
 
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DJ Spinoza said:
I think I am starting to flip flop from pitching to another batter, specifically Benintendi. That solves something that's not quite a big problem but definitely a roster weakness, and shows commitment for the years to come as well. I am optimistic about Bae in terms of performance and perhaps as a kind of sneaky super utility guy, who moves between OF and middle infield as needed. Benintendi would just stabilize the whole offense quite a bit, and create more of a permanent platoon situation with the corner/DH guys like Suwinski, Andujar, Santana, and Choi.

I'm still all about Quintana, but if we got some (totally modest, in reality if it were not the Pirates) fantasy-land scenario of Benintendi, Wacha for two years, and Manaea on a bounce back contract, I'd be beyond satisfied.


It's definitely now a little weird that comments were made about a corresponding move last night for Santana and it's 11am with still nothing. Even with how secretive and slow the Pirates can be with something as simple as a lineup, it seems like something is up. My most speculative guess is that we're trying to trade middle infielders to Arizona or Minnesota for one of the OFs.
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They can use both an OF and a SP so I'm fine with either. I just want it to be someone who has a real chance to be here in 2024-2026 when there's some realistic hope of being decent and not someone who will be dealt in August for another team's 23rd best prospect.
 
MrBrightside said:
They can use both an OF and a SP so I'm fine with either. I just want it to be someone who has a real chance to be here in 2024-2026 when there's some realistic hope of being decent and not someone who will be dealt in August for another team's 23rd best prospect.
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Yeah, I think that ultimately, this is the fairest and most straightforward litmus test in terms of the talk that's started to be thrown around by the front office. It doesn't have to be anyone specific, but he did say back at the end of the season that a goal was a multi-year contract for a pitcher. And really, even if some more minor improvements are made, the payroll will barely go up unless we also add someone who makes 10-15M per year, a totally reasonable amount to pay for an everyday player or SP.

I am still ok with any steps in the right direction, even if certain swaps are a low bar, as you put it the other day. For example, one reason I am not going to turn my nose up at Gibson is that Gibson probably means no more Bryse Wilson in the rotation even for a temporary spell. I think Gibson can actually be decent in the NL Central, but regardless that's not much, and it certainly would be underwhelming if that is the only SP brought in.
 
They'd never do it but I'd love to see the Pirates throw like a 5 year, $75 million contract at Senga. I've seen a couple of sources throw out $15 million with term as an estimate for what Senga could be looking at. It's a bit more than Quintana would realistically cost, but it's still fairly cheap overall for the caliber of pitcher Senga seems to be.

They paid Liriano $13 million a decade ago, so I don't see why they couldn't pay Senga $15 million.
 
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Yeah, Senga would be a good risk to take, though on top of agreeing that we'll never do it, I assume he'll go to a contender and/or a coast.

I am fine with still needing to thread the needle of what's feasible. I think it's true that many free agents are resistant to coming here but that money talks in the middle of the market and feasible is still making a competitive offer. Any of Taillon, Benintendi, Walker, Quintana, Haniger, Eovaldi, Eflin, Stripling, and even perhaps Profar are guys who could be signed if the will to actually pay them truly exists.

We could get into various caveats or anticipations about a specific player's market, but I think the broader point is true, and that any of those guys could be signed for 3-4 years at modest salaries and be a part of boosting the 2023 team as well as beyond, when in theory internal boosts should be stronger.
 
Not very climactic, but pretty obvious with Choi and Santana in tow. I think it makes sense, even if one of those guys is primarily in a DH role, Davis is a reclamation project who wouldn't really be an obvious bench candidate. More of a depth option, so I bet the thinking is to hope he passes through waivers for us and can be in AAA to start the year.

Hope we get some genuine trade rumors heading into the winter meetings this weekend (and not about Reynolds...).
 
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NPB's Hanshin Tigers Post Shintaro Fujinami

The Hanshin Tigers of Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball have officially posted right-hander Shintaro Fujinami, according to Yakyu Cosmopolitan. It was …
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This might also be an interesting gamble to take, in terms of the potential viability relative to upside. If Marin could get Fujinami's mechanics to be consistent, then there's pretty big ceiling here, but it probably goes without saying that the floor is a little more worrisome. I really don't have any idea what kind of contact he'd be in line for, but the components seem to be there for a leverage reliever if starting wouldn't work out, so if the AAV were low enough, that floor might not be too bad (while keeping in mind that the floor can sometimes be nothing with players transitioning leagues).
 
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