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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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What a mess, though honestly my initial reaction is that I want to see what the offer really was before I fully form an opinion overall, at least on an emotional level. Nutting is utter and complete shit, there's no reason to even go into it. I've gone back and forth on Cherington, and agree with the sentiment that if a trade ultimately happened, he needed to be more decisive and trade earlier -- to just expand on that a bit, punting on 2022 and then having stuff go sideways is maybe a nail in the coffin in terms of indecision. Had he spent modestly on a couple of free agents or trades a la what he has done early this offseason, and then last year's team wins 75 or so, and is looking for further steps forward this year, maybe it's a different story. But instead it was a 100 loss team with tons of waiver and reclamation trash cycling through it.

All that said, and maybe this is a hot take, but I'm not so sure I have any sympathy whatsoever for Reynolds. Unless the offer was pretty bare minimum, it's a dog shit move to publicly leak this and quit on your team. This is an impression I have had about him under the radar for a while now -- he's not much of a leader. This kind of way of handling things might solidify that. I doubt we'll get even a ballpark figure for a while, but based on what has been reported about the money topping Hayes' contract, for the offer to be insulting, it would need to be 75-80M or something stretched out over tons of years, i.e. making Reynolds a Pirate for life but at a very low AAV that circumvents paying anything close to market value for his best FA years.

However, even if the offer was something like 5 years, 80-85M, while that's lower than what Reynolds might get, it's not really insulting given the situation. Even if he is traded before I hit reply on this post, the fact of a cheap 2023 salary and two more years of team control weigh heavily in what he is capable of earning even in free agency. We constantly see that even pretty good corner OFs don't get huge paydays in free agency. The sum of my reaction without knowing more particulars is that Reynolds could have at least privately informed the team before turning to publicly air things like this.

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We'll see if and when the dust settles, but I don't think this is totally catastrophic in terms of what we can get in a trade. My immediate reaction at the level of what we should do is basically to act with extreme rapidity to trade him. Try and seize the suddenness of this news and ratchet up talks to the extreme, signaling to teams that he will be moved before the end of the winter meetings and that good offers are rolling in.

As others have said, the OF market is very weak, and you have the advantage of bringing in some teams who might be even more attracted to the fact that he has these cheap team control years. In particular, two that jump out as obvious potential suitors in this sense are Seattle and Toronto. Seattle still has the pitching depth to make something happen, though I do think a lot would come down to how big of a gamble you want to take on Kelenic as a secondary piece in a deal. My gut response is that if Gilbert was the headliner, I'd jump to do a deal for him, Kelenic, and some other secondary pieces. I think Gilbert is a top of the rotation workhorse, especially in the NL Central. I'd be surprised if Seattle considered moving him, and think the highest I'd go if I were them would be to start with Kirby, whose ceiling is a little lower IMO, but maybe I have a bad read.

Toronto is even more interesting, though it's possibly a weird and bad fit. The rumors seem to be that Toronto isn't going to get involved in a big FA signing, and so with a need for an OF as well as a lefty bat, maybe this is an opportunity they think they can't pass up. That said, the bad fit is that they don't really have prospect depth and currently are looking to move one of the three very good catchers that they have: Jansen, Kirk, or Moreno.

Jansen would not make sense, because he's good but just controllable for 2 years. Kirk could be interesting as a C and also large (literally and figuratively) DH option. Moreno is even more intriguing because of his great status as a prospect and good early showing last year. The obvious, though, is that we drafted a catcher 1.1 and arguably our best prospect is another catcher. Given that, though, if Toronto was willing to offer Kirk or Moreno as a centerpiece, I would be pretty interested in staying at that table, since that's high caliber talent that is ready to contribute immediately. Even with Moreno, there's no reason that Davis couldn't just be shuttled to a 1B role, or even still a longer-term possibility of 3 catchers on the team who all should hit well enough to play regularly. I'm going way too far into specifics now, but it wouldn't be out of the question to have one catching, one at 1B or in a corner OF, and the other at DH on the same night. The same holds for Kirk. I'd be seriously tempted, especially in the case of Moreno.
 
Maybe it's just Heyman being a mouthpiece for the organization, but I honestly can't comprehend how the Pirates offer could have been insulting enough to leak a trade request if they were offering more than they offered Hayes. I don't think the Pirates offering a ton of term makes sense because Reynolds is going to be 29 when his extension kicks in. Are the Pirates really going to give a 29 year old Reynolds a 7+ year deal when he has already started to show serious signs of defensive regression? I'd at least hope they wouldn't do that.

My guess is that the Pirates were talking about something in the $70 million to $90 million range, but Reynolds thinks he can get this massive 8 figure contract by going to UFA and isn't willing to take a more reasonable deal now. 5 years and $85 million is an entirely reasonable deal for both sides. While I imagine the Pirates were under that, I can't see how they were so far under that it justifies Reynolds leaking the trade request. Even if it was like 6 years and $75 million, that doesn't seem insulting enough to warrant this response.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
Maybe it's just Heyman being a mouthpiece for the organization, but I honestly can't comprehend how the Pirates offer could have been insulting enough to leak a trade request if they were offering more than they offered Hayes. I don't think the Pirates offering a ton of term makes sense because Reynolds is going to be 29 when his extension kicks in. Are the Pirates really going to give a 29 year old Reynolds a 7+ year deal when he has already started to show serious signs of defensive regression? I'd at least hope they wouldn't do that.

My guess is that the Pirates were talking about something in the $70 million to $90 million range, but Reynolds thinks he can get this massive 8 figure contract by going to UFA and isn't willing to take a more reasonable deal now. 5 years and $85 million is an entirely reasonable deal for both sides. While I imagine the Pirates were under that, I can't see how they were so far under that it justifies Reynolds leaking the trade request. Even if it was like 6 years and $75 million, that doesn't seem insulting enough to warrant this response.
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If Reynolds can get $120-$130M elsewhere, then he needs to move on if we are offering $80M. And at this point his name will be the hottest on the hot stove and teams will be looking at him as a chance to make a splash with a younger and cheaper option. Ironically, that he is a bargain will bring his inevitable extension with his new teM to a higher $ figure.

The Pirates are the epitome of an unsympathetic organization. 90% of the baseball world will agree with a player leaving them high and dry. Curious to see how he is greeted at PNC though.
 
DocEmrickSkitters said:
If Reynolds can get $120-$130M elsewhere, then he needs to move on if we are offering $80M. And at this point his name will be the hottest on the hot stove and teams will be looking at him as a chance to make a splash with a younger and cheaper option. Ironically, that he is a bargain will bring his inevitable extension with his new teM to a higher $ figure.

The Pirates are the epitome of an unsympathetic organization. 90% of the baseball world will agree with a player leaving them high and dry. Curious to see how he is greeted at PNC though.
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I typed this out on reddit and I think this is exactly what's going on. The Pirates and Reynolds aren't far off from an AAV point of view, they're far off from total money because the Pirates don't want to give Reynolds the term he wants.

My complete speculation is that the Pirates want Reynolds to take a slightly below market value to fair deal on a medium term deal, while Reynolds wants basically his long term, 8 figure retirement contract. At that point, no one is really to blame for the two sides not agreeing on a contract.

The thing I realized is that if Reynolds takes the Pirates 5 or so year contract, he'll be hitting UFA at age 34. Is he realistically going to get a big contract at that age? I'd guess not. What's more likely, he can get an 8 year, $150 million contract today or that he can top $150 million if he takes a 5 year, $80 million deal from the Pirates today?
 
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Not to be conspiratorial, but I don't think it's out of the question that it's actually the Pirates who leaked the information. Although it seems like it's disadvantageous towards any negotiating, I don't really think that's true from the perspective of other FOs and how they'd assess the situation.

Reynolds is a premium player who will be very cheap and then reasonably cheap for a total of 3 more years. That makes him valuable to any contender, and potentially even more valuable to both contenders whose payroll is stretched thin, and contenders who have more flexibility but also could see it as an opportune moment to really stack their roster.

It's probably a bit too much of a stretch, but if an extension isn't happening, then the time to deal him is now or at the latest the deadline. It's possible they went with the barest feasible offer, Reynolds said no, and now they are pivoting to trade aggressively rather than wait and ultimately lose him for a draft pick. I think there's obviously a middle ground possibility whereby you just do more to win ASAP (for starters, by raising the payroll to 80-90M for next year and then more beyond that), ultimately letting Reynolds walk for draft pick compensation, but any progress towards a better MLB team is looking like it's piecemeal and incredibly slow.

Put differently, the Reynolds question has always been a weird one because he doesn't quite fit from a timing perspective. Even just in terms of when you'd expect his best performances, they are in 2023, 2024, and 2025 and not in 2026, 2027, or beyond. If you play it so that your window is only barely opening in 2024, even making the big (and unwarranted) assumption that it keeps getting wider in the years that follow, it's still the case that Reynolds could be a part of that window but not quite as essential as he could have been to a team that tried to get better last year, open the window this year, and truly be in the mix for 24 and 25.

Anyways, I think we need to set aside the fact that this looks bad from a PR perspective and all the stuff that goes with that, because we're still looking at 3 years for a premium CF/LF who does everything and does it consistently. It's not the profile that contenders who need an OF are going to drag their feet on and wait for a discount. At the end of the day, almost every team operates according to similar methods, meaning that Reynolds' anticipated production vs. what he will likely make works out to be a number that is quantifiable in young talent and prospects. It's up to BC not to fumble the bag, but demand is not going to be a problem.

I unsurprisingly have a lot more to day (we should be making a competitive offer to Benintendi while auctioning Reynolds off to the highest bidder over the next few days), but even setting aside speculation about it being the Pirates who leaked (more people seem upset with the team, but if you get immediately productive young players, maybe you win a bit in terms of PR if a trade is happening no matter what), I think this is where things stand. Not every potential suitor has a perfect pool to cull from, but there are easily 4-5 teams who would be in and can provide a return that addresses current needs with a combination of young talent and upper level prospects.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
I typed this out on reddit and I think this is exactly what's going on. The Pirates and Reynolds aren't far off from an AAV point of view, they're far off from total money because the Pirates don't want to give Reynolds the term he wants.

My complete speculation is that the Pirates want Reynolds to take a slightly below market value to fair deal on a medium term deal, while Reynolds wants basically his long term, 8 figure retirement contract. At that point, no one is really to blame for the two sides not agreeing on a contract.

The thing I realized is that if Reynolds takes the Pirates 5 or so year contract, he'll be hitting UFA at age 34. Is he realistically going to get a big contract at that age? I'd guess not. What's more likely, he can get an 8 year, $150 million contract today or that he can top $150 million if he takes a 5 year, $80 million deal from the Pirates today?
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And honestly another team feeling forced to give BR 8/$150M is a good thing for the Pirates, because it means they unloaded 2+ top100 guys to get him and then are justifying it by signing him to longer-term.
 
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Could be guilty of sour grapes, but I kinda don't think Reynolds is going to get some big extension even if/when he's traded. Teams don't just extend anyone anymore -- it's usually guys who are very young and hence locking in a lot of money while still hitting FA early enough.

Reynolds is a bit screwed by when he'll hit free agency. There are differing takes on how long/whether he remains a CF, and while his skillset likely makes him a good MLBer even well into his 30s, all it takes is for his power to dip some, or him to have a down year defensively and/or in terms of contact for him to really not be much of anything.

My guess is that the best he'd be able to do is a 5-6 year deal at better dollars than what we may have offered, but not by a huge margin. He could earn a very big FA contract, but it would take him re-establishing himself in CF and having near-elite or elite production for 3 straight years. I think he's capable of that, but it's not a slam dunk.
 
Miami for Meyer, Rogers and De La Cruz seems like a fit. Maybe we need to add but I like it as a starting point.

NM just saw the Tommy John for Meyer.

I think given the PR situation the team is in now the headliner of the Reynolds trade has to take the field this year.
 
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DJ Spinoza said:
Could be guilty of sour grapes, but I kinda don't think Reynolds is going to get some big extension even if/when he's traded. Teams don't just extend anyone anymore -- it's usually guys who are very young and hence locking in a lot of money while still hitting FA early enough.

Reynolds is a bit screwed by when he'll hit free agency. There are differing takes on how long/whether he remains a CF, and while his skillset likely makes him a good MLBer even well into his 30s, all it takes is for his power to dip some, or him to have a down year defensively and/or in terms of contact for him to really not be much of anything.

My guess is that the best he'd be able to do is a 5-6 year deal at better dollars than what we may have offered, but not by a huge margin. He could earn a very big FA contract, but it would take him re-establishing himself in CF and having near-elite or elite production for 3 straight years. I think he's capable of that, but it's not a slam dunk.
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I agree generally but I don't think getting a 5 year, $100 million contract would really require Reynolds to be elite over the next few years.

My guess for what's going on is that Reynolds isn't willing to sacrifice what could be his only opportunity for a big UFA contract at age 31 just to take a reasonable medium term deal to stay with the Pirates. He either wants that big contract now with his remaining 2 arb years or wants to go to UFA to get that deal. The situation is that the Pirates have flat out told him that they flat out won't give him the total money he wants and Reynolds was like "okay then trade me".
 
Empoleon8771 said:
I agree generally but I don't think getting a 5 year, $100 million contract would really require Reynolds to be elite over the next few years.

My guess for what's going on is that Reynolds isn't willing to sacrifice what could be his only opportunity for a big UFA contract at age 31 just to take a reasonable medium term deal to stay with the Pirates. He either wants that big contract now with his remaining 2 arb years or wants to go to UFA to get that deal. The situation is that the Pirates have flat out told him that they flat out won't give him the total money he wants and Reynolds was like "okay then trade me".
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Not only that, but the signalling is rather brilliant. Basically it's saying "if you're gonna trade for me, you better extend me."

I think whatever team Reynolds goes to gives him an extension, and it's going to be in the $120-$150M range.
 
It's also possible that Reynolds just wants out because he doesn't think he can win here, on top of speculating about whatever offer he might have given.

I don't think he's the kind of player that teams give a big deal to. Maybe the Pirates offered 5-6/85 or something and he can get 5-6/100-115, in which case, good for him and he deserves it, but I think the possibility wanes off there, and I think a bigger budget team is probably a little bit more cautious about rushing into any extension.

From the Pirates perspective, any kind of longer term commitment has to be because the team takes a bit of a chance on a deal. If you are a bigger budget team that also is regularly a contender, you can have Bryan Reynolds and maybe pay him solid arb one-year deals, and then when he is 1 year or less to free agency, you can look into paying him a bigger deal or whether the QO + compensation is best for you.
 
Yeah, I think that's right. Honestly, the more I think about it, the more it seems like Moreno is the closest possible headliner to J-Rod from earlier rumors. It's hard to bring in pre-MLB J-Rod, though he did have a ton of hype all the way through, and it's hard to compare catchers with anyone.

From the Jays perspective, it's hard to imagine a more ideal fit for them in terms using Moreno as a trade chip. I guess maybe you could wonder if Arizona would trade them Corbin Carroll or something, but those kinds of prospect trades are pretty rare.

I'm repeating myself from earlier, but even if we just kind of side skirt the idea of the Pirates acquiring a catcher when they have Endy/Davis, the big issues for me are that Toronto has a pretty thin system in terms of a secondary pieces and that Toronto is fully win-now, so it's also hard to see them parting with MLB talent in addition to their top prospect.

But I still think it probably represents the best possibility to actually get a premium centerpiece for Reynolds. It is simply not worth trading talent like Reynolds if you just get back a solid enough crew of 45+/50 FV guys, out of which you might end up with a decent regular if things go well. The Jays have a LHP SP who has barely scratched AA but seems to have an arrow pointing up, or maybe they could be swayed on certain roster players. For example, they have a depth SP in Mitch White who could possibly play up in the NL Central. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. seemed to be ready for a breakout in 2022 but then was injured and inconsistent. RH bat with pop, signed to a reasonable contract for 3 more years. If they'd do Moreno as headliner and then White and Gurriel immediate additions who also improve the 2023 team, then IMO that might be as good as it gets.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
Maybe it's just Heyman being a mouthpiece for the organization, but I honestly can't comprehend how the Pirates offer could have been insulting enough to leak a trade request if they were offering more than they offered Hayes. I don't think the Pirates offering a ton of term makes sense because Reynolds is going to be 29 when his extension kicks in. Are the Pirates really going to give a 29 year old Reynolds a 7+ year deal when he has already started to show serious signs of defensive regression? I'd at least hope they wouldn't do that.

My guess is that the Pirates were talking about something in the $70 million to $90 million range, but Reynolds thinks he can get this massive 8 figure contract by going to UFA and isn't willing to take a more reasonable deal now. 5 years and $85 million is an entirely reasonable deal for both sides. While I imagine the Pirates were under that, I can't see how they were so far under that it justifies Reynolds leaking the trade request. Even if it was like 6 years and $75 million, that doesn't seem insulting enough to warrant this response.
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This response is because Reynolds wants to be some place that cares about winning
 
TimmyD said:
This response is because Reynolds wants to be some place that cares about winning
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Well then he can just go pound sand then for all I care.

If it's a money disagreement, I understand it. The Pirates can't reasonably pay Reynolds what he wants. That's not a "Nutting is cheap" thing, it's "the Pirates aren't going to be spending $100+ million on a single player" thing. If he's demanding a trade because he's mad about the performance of the team, that's an entirely separate thing where he can politely go screw himself. The Pirates are rebuilding, what did he expect to happen?

I have way more respect for a player wanting to get paid than I have for a player who supposedly wants to leave because the team isn't good enough.
 
Being mad at a player for wanting to be on a winning team is so strange to me.

What does Bryan Reynolds owe the Pirates for being the team to draft him? Jack shit. He only has so many years to play and if his goal is to win championships he'd be a madman to sign here.
 
NewAgeOutlaw said:
Being mad at a player for wanting to be on a winning team is so strange to me.

What does Bryan Reynolds owe the Pirates for being the team to draft him? Jack shit. He only has so many years to play and if his goal is to win championships he'd be a madman to sign here.
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I never said I was mad at him. I'd tell him to pound sand with his trade request. Also, the Pirates didn't draft Reynolds.

Bryan Reynolds owes the Pirates 7 years of service, which is what they have his rights for as stipulated by the CBA. What he wants is frankly irrelevant of that fact. There is not "he can just not sign her", he is literally obligated to play for the Pirates.

The MLB is arguably the most restrictive league for player movement, especially for guys decently early in their career. The only way Reynolds leaves is if the Pirates let him leave. If it's a money thing where Reynolds just wants to secure the bag, I understand it entirely. But being mad about not winning? Sorry, you'll get traded when it's convenient for the team. Mad about that? Blame your MLBPA reps.
 
I guess the other premium headliner prospects who might be viable are Volpe from NYY and Leiter from TEX. People always throw Dominguez's name around when it comes to Yankees trades these days but he's way too much of an unknown quantity to be a headliner. Cashman has been so reluctant to move any top prospects, but if they were to add Reynolds and one of the top SS options, that makes them a quite different team than the Yankees that seemed to rely so much on the HR to carry their offense. My guess/take is that Judge looms too large for them to really work on other big deals, but I guess that could resolve itself at the meetings too.

Texas is an interesting wildcard because they have been insanely aggressive and also have a system that is talented and deep. It would be funny to end up with Leiter after many of us wanting him, and though he's an unknown, Leiter is moving fast and would fit the type of headliner prospect I think you want, with the obvious caveat that if that prospect is a SP, it's maybe riskier than a position player. Texas has position players who are also ready and don't have obvious opportunity with the way their depth chart is looking, and the system is deep enough such that there would be a number of sweeteners possible too.

The big key obviously has to be the premium headliner. This feels like it's been the issue with every major trade we've seen even going back to the end of the NH era and even in trades where it looks like it's working out ok, it seems like we've never gotten that return. Maybe our best prospect in the system was basically a weird throw-in on a deal that is otherwise not so great. For my money, Moreno is probably the best shot we have at a return like this that has eluded us, even though the rest of the situation doesn't have obvious fits.


A final obvious thing about all of this is that unless it's resolved ASAP, it really throws a wrench into everything. This is part of why I think BC needs to be insanely aggressive in terms of pushing any teams who are calling to make a deal before the end of the winter meetings. I am conspiratorial enough to talk myself into it being BC who leaked the news, but setting that BS aside, it's plain as day that we can't really move onto other plans until this is resolved.

It really puts a damper on the momentum to put up or shut up with the recent talk and signing a mid-tier FA, and though I do not think front offices even care a little bit about this, a Reynolds trade will piss off casual fans regardless of any return (rightly so). And needless to say, if we want to sign 1-2 more SPs including a multi-year guy, and then also hope to chase .500 in 2023, it's going to be next to impossible if we subtract Reynolds, even if for example Volpe or Moreno comes back and has a ROY-type campaign.

We'd basically need to dash off a flurry of activity, trading Reynolds in a blockbuster and then making two of the biggest FA signings in team history such as Quintana and Benintendi both, for example. It's absurd to think that could happen, even it also would be in the ballpark of fiscally feasible if we were serious about signing one before all of this mess with Reynolds. And that's not even getting into whether FAs would now be even less inclined to sign here (though fwiw, I still think for the mid-tier guys, unless it might be their final contract, money and opportunity talks the loudest).
 
I think the Reynolds trade that makes the most sense to me is something around Reynolds to LA for Bobby Miller. LA obviously lost Bellinger by non-tendering him and the options for CF are pretty limited once Judge signs elsewhere. They are very deep in young pitching, with Miller being the headliner.

If you could get Miller as a top prospect and May as a young MLB reclamation project, you have a nice basis for a trade with the Dodgers. Go for those two plus one of Busch or Pages and that seems like a decent start.
 
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